The continued importance of measuring potentially harmful impacts of crime prevention programs: the academy of experimental criminology 2014 Joan McCord lecture

Objective

Joan McCord was a very influential criminologist and strong advocate for measuring potentially harmful effects in well-meaning crime prevention programs. This paper demonstrates the continued importance of measuring adverse program effects by reviewing the available research evidence on classic and contemporary gang streetworker programs.

Methods

This paper draws upon the evaluation findings of existing gang streetworker evaluations and presents the unpublished results of a rigorous quasi-experimental evaluation of a contemporary gang streetworker program that directly measured whether the intervention impacted the violent gun behaviors of treated gangs relative to untreated gangs.

Results

Evaluations of classic pre-1970s gang streetworker programs generally found that these interventions increased gang delinquency by reinforcing group identity and enhancing gang cohesion. Evaluations of contemporary gang streetworker programs are mixed, with several studies documenting concerning increases in gang violence. An unpublished evaluation found that the streetworker program was well-implemented and executed. However, the intervention was associated with increased shootings by and against treatment gangs relative to control gangs.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that contemporary gang streetworker programs are at high risk of generating unintended adverse outcomes for treated gang members relative to their untreated counterparts. Existing and planned programs should be monitored with a high degree of vigilance and evaluated with controlled evaluation designs.

     

Uncovering the Pathways Between Gang Membership and Violent Victimization

Objectives

Gang members are more likely to be victimized violently than non-gang youth, but the extent to which this relationship is confounded, direct, or mediated remains unclear. This study responds to recent calls by scholars for more methodologically sound research in this area with the goal of uncovering the pathways between gang membership and violent victimization.

Methods

Using a school-based longitudinal sample of adolescents, the current study uses Preacher and Hayes multiple mediator structural equation modeling and counterfactual methodology to test whether and which theoretical pathways—self-control, cultural orientations, routine activity, and lifestyle theory—mediate the contemporaneous and prospective effects of gang membership on violent victimization.

Results

The results indicate that 27 % of the contemporaneous effects of gang membership on victimization is attributable to selection, with the remaining 73 % endogenous to gang membership, supporting Thornberry et al.’s (J Res Crime Delinquency 30:55–87, 1993) enhancement model. Entry into a gang increases risk taking, temper, self-centeredness, negative peer commitment, neutralization of violence, aggressive conflict resolution, unstructured socializing, and delinquency, and decreases empathy and positive peer commitment. The contemporaneous gang membership-victimization link was fully mediated, due almost entirely to delinquency. Prospective models reveal a gang membership-victimization link that is fully confounded by selection, although attrition and desistance from gangs may be responsible for this finding.

Conclusions

The existing risky attitudes and behaviors of youth who select into gangs matters a great deal for understanding the gang membership-victimization link, but these very risks are exacerbated upon entry into a gang. Our mediation findings suggest that interventions targeting highly delinquent gang members should pay dual dividends of reducing delinquency and victimization.

     

Is Gun Violence Contagious? A Spatiotemporal Test

Objectives

Existing theories of gun violence predict stable spatial concentrations and contagious diffusion of gun violence into surrounding areas. Recent empirical studies have reported confirmatory evidence of such spatiotemporal diffusion of gun violence. However, existing space/time interaction tests cannot readily distinguish spatiotemporal clustering from spatiotemporal diffusion. This leaves as an open question whether gun violence actually is contagious or merely clusters in space and time. Compounding this problem, gun violence is subject to considerable measurement error with many nonfatal shootings going unreported to police.

Methods

Using point process data from an acoustical gunshot locator system and a combination of Bayesian spatiotemporal point process modeling and classical space/time interaction tests, this paper distinguishes between clustered but non-diffusing gun violence and clustered gun violence resulting from diffusion.

Results

This paper demonstrates that contemporary urban gun violence in a metropolitan city does diffuse in space and time, but only slightly.

Conclusions

These results suggest that a disease model for the spread of gun violence in space and time may not be a good fit for most of the geographically stable and temporally stochastic process observed. And that existing space/time tests may not be adequate tests for spatiotemporal gun violence diffusion models.

     

The “care package,” prison domestic violence programs and recidivism: a quasi-experimental study

Objectives

Although there are many evaluations of domestic violence rehabilitation programs, it is still unclear “what works” in this field, especially when it comes to programs within prison walls. Today, most studies indicate that domestic violence programs based on cognitive behavioral treatment, or psycho-educational models show small positive results. Yet, there is still insufficient empirical literature providing adequate evidence for the impact of integrative treatment, where different methods and approaches toward domestic violence prisoners are employed within the same rehabilitation-program framework while incarcerated. Our study examined the effects of an integrative domestic violence program with a therapeutic “package” implemented in Israel with the goal of reducing recidivism rates among prisoners in general, and especially with regard to violent offenses.

Methods

Using propensity score matching methods, we compared treated offenders to a matched sample drawn from all convicted prisoners who were released from prison between 2004 and 2012.

Results

The findings indicate that the percentages of reincarceration and rearrests of inmates, who participated in integrative domestic violence program, were significantly lower during a period of up to 4 years after release.

Conclusions

Our conclusion is that the integrative effect of different treatments along with a supportive prison climate increased the success of inmates who participated in the domestic violence program.

     

Dissecting the Prevalence and Incidence of Offending During the Crime Drop of the 1990s

Objectives

To evaluate whether the 1990s crime drop reflects a decrease in offending prevalence (the fraction of the population engaged in crime), offending incidence (the frequency of offending among active criminals), or some combination of the two.

Methods

We use individual-level longitudinal data on adolescent offending patterns from the Pittsburgh Youth study (PYS), integrating information from the youngest and oldest cohorts to compare offending among 17–18 year old males at the beginning and end of the 1990s. Logistic and negative binomial regression models are estimated to assess whether there are significant differences in offending prevalence and incidence during the 1990s.

Results

The reduction in property crime rates in the PYS sample during the 1990s can be attributed to declines in both offending prevalence and incidence. The overall decline in serious violence during the 1990s for the full sample was primarily the result of a falloff in prevalence. However, for black youth our results indicate significant reductions in both the prevalence and incidence of serious violence. We did not detect a significant difference in illegal drug sales during the period.

Conclusions

Using longitudinal data on individuals to decompose aggregate crime trends into changes in the prevalence and incidence of offending offers insights into the nature of the 1990s crime drop that cannot be discerned from aggregate crime data. Future research should build on the current study by examining the specific mechanisms that influence change over time in crime prevalence, incidence, or both.

     

Violence in Urban Neighborhoods: A Longitudinal Study of Collective Efficacy and Violent Crime

Objectives

Cross-sectional studies consistently find that neighborhoods with higher levels of collective efficacy experience fewer social problems. Particularly robust is the relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime, which holds regardless of the socio-structural conditions of neighborhoods. Yet due to the limited availability of neighborhood panel data, the temporal relationship between neighborhood structure, collective efficacy and crime is less well understood.

Methods

In this paper, we provide an empirical test of the collective efficacy-crime association over time by bringing together multiple waves of survey and census data and counts of violent crime incident data collected across 148 neighborhoods in Brisbane, Australia. Utilizing three different longitudinal models that make different assumptions about the temporal nature of these relationships, we examine the reciprocal relationships between neighborhood features and collective efficacy with violent crime. We also consider the spatial embeddedness of these neighborhood characteristics and their association with collective efficacy and the concentration of violence longitudinally.

Results

Notably, our findings reveal no direct relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime over time. However, we find a strong reciprocal relationship between collective efficacy and disadvantage and between disadvantage and violence, indicating an indirect relationship between collective efficacy and violence.

Conclusions

The null direct effects for collective efficacy on crime in a longitudinal design suggest that this relationship may not be as straightforward as presumed in the literature. More longitudinal research is needed to understand the dynamics of disadvantage, collective efficacy, and violence in neighborhoods.

     

Predictions put into practice: a quasi-experimental evaluation of Chicago’s predictive policing pilot

Objectives

In 2013, the Chicago Police Department conducted a pilot of a predictive policing program designed to reduce gun violence. The program included development of a Strategic Subjects List (SSL) of people estimated to be at highest risk of gun violence who were then referred to local police commanders for a preventive intervention. The purpose of this study is to identify the impact of the pilot on individual- and city-level gun violence, and to test possible drivers of results.

Methods

The SSL consisted of 426 people estimated to be at highest risk of gun violence. We used ARIMA models to estimate impacts on city-level homicide trends, and propensity score matching to estimate the effects of being placed on the list on five measures related to gun violence. A mediation analysis and interviews with police leadership and COMPSTAT meeting observations help understand what is driving results.

Results

Individuals on the SSL are not more or less likely to become a victim of a homicide or shooting than the comparison group, and this is further supported by city-level analysis. The treated group is more likely to be arrested for a shooting.

Conclusions

It is not clear how the predictions should be used in the field. One potential reason why being placed on the list resulted in an increased chance of being arrested for a shooting is that some officers may have used the list as leads to closing shooting cases. The results provide for a discussion about the future of individual-based predictive policing programs.

     

Exploring the Effect of Exposure to Short-Term Solitary Confinement Among Violent Prison Inmates

Objectives

This study tracked the behavior of male inmates housed in the general inmate populations of 70 different prison units from a large southern state. Each of the inmates studied engaged in violent misconduct at least once during the first 2 years of incarceration (n = 3,808). The goal of the study was to isolate the effect of exposure to short-term solitary confinement (SC) as a punishment for their initial act of violent behavior on the occurrence and timing of subsequent misconduct.

Methods

This study relied upon archival longitudinal data and employed a multilevel counterfactual research design (propensity score matching) that involved tests for group differences, event history analyses, and trajectory analyses.

Results

The results suggest that exposure to short-term solitary confinement as a punishment for an initial violence does not appear to play a role in increasing or decreasing the probability, timing, or development future misconduct for this particular group on inmates.

Conclusions

Upon validation, these findings call for continued research and perhaps a dialog regarding the utility of solitary confinement policies under certain contexts. This unique study sets the stage for further research to more fully understand how solitary impacts post-exposure behavior.

     

Retrieving administrative data to assess long-term outcomes: a case study of the 23-year follow-up of the Milwaukee domestic violence experiment

Objectives

To describe how social scientists, criminal justice practitioners, and administrative agencies collected administrative data to follow-up a criminological experiment after two decades. To make recommendations that will guide similar long-term follow-ups.

Methods

A case study approach describes the processes of and sociological benefits to collecting administrative data to assess criminal justice and life-course outcomes.

Results

While maintaining experimental integrity, we developed, executed, and verified processes to retrieve arrest, mortality, and residential data for the experimental subjects, which enabled us to complete the longest ever follow-up of a criminal justice experiment.

Conclusions

When experiments have policy implications, administrative data may be preferable to survey data for assessing primary effects. Successful social science research can be conducted in conjunction with multiple administrative agencies.

     

A quasi-experimental evaluation of the impact of bike-sharing stations on micro-level robbery occurrence

Objectives

To examine if the implementation of bike-sharing stations is linked to robbery occurrence in micro-level street corner units in Cincinnati, OH, USA.

Methods

Propensity score matching was used to select comparison street corner units. The effect of bike-sharing station implementation on robbery occurrence across weekly, biweekly, and monthly observations was estimated using repeated measures multi-level logistic regression models.

Results

Bike-sharing stations did not statistically significantly link to robbery occurrence in immediate or nearby street corner units after implementation.

Conclusions

Numerous explanations consistent with Crime Pattern Theory may explain the null effect of bike-sharing stations on robbery occurrence. Future research should continue to examine how changes in the urban backcloth, such as bike-sharing stations, impact geographic crime patterns.

     

‘Don’t Blow Your Cool’: Provocation,Violent Coping,and the Conditioning Effects of Self-Control

Objectives

General Strain Theory (Agnew in Criminology 30:47–87, 1992) has received broad empirical support, but little is known about moderators of the strain-delinquency relationship. This study tests whether self-control attenuates the relationship between a certain type of delinquency—violence—and its most important precursor, considered a type of strain: interpersonal provocation. This study compares the conditioning effects of risk-affinity and self-control/impulsivity on the provocation-violence link, since recent work suggests differentiating between both characteristics.

Methods

The provocation-violence link is examined (1) using a scenario design with randomly varied degrees of objective provocation and a measure of projected violence, and (2) with measures of self-reported past violence and subjective sensitivity to provocation. The analyses are based on a large sample of seventh-graders (n = 2635) from five cities in Western Germany, interviewed in 2013. Linear probability models regressing violence measures on personal traits, provocation measures, and their interactions are estimated.

Results

Both self-control and risk-affinity moderate the relationship between subjective sensitivity to provocation and past violent behavior. Students with high self-control are able to control their anger and do not turn violent, even when they feel provoked easily. However, only risk-affinity significantly amplifies the effect of objective provocation on prospective violence when simultaneously controlling for the conditioning effect of self-control.

Conclusions

Findings underscore that both self-control and risk-aversion are important coping resources. This study highlights the importance of using internally consistent and mechanism-congruent measures in the study of illicit coping processes and conditioning factors and discourages from using composite, potentially multidimensional measures.

     

Consequences of legal risk communication for sanction perception updating and white-collar criminality

Objectives

Scholars have long emphasized that communicating, or “advertising”, information about legal sanction risk is necessary for the success of deterrence-based crime policies. However, scant research has evaluated whether direct communications about legal risk can cause sanction perception updating, the updating of ambiguity in sanction perceptions, or changes in persons’ willingness to offend. No prior studies have evaluated sanction perception updating for white-collar crimes.

Methods

To address this research void, the current study analyzes data from an experiment embedded in a recent national survey (N?=?878). Multivariate regression models estimate the effect of providing participants with information about the “objective” arrest risk for white-collar offenses on their sanction perceptions.

Results

The findings provide the first evidence that such information, when it is inconsistent with individuals’ prior beliefs, causes them to update: (1) their perceptions of the certainty of arrest; (2) their ambiguity about arrest risk; and, indirectly, (3) their willingness to commit white-collar crimes.

Conclusions

The results imply that individuals are willing to incorporate relevant information into their subjective beliefs about sanction risks. Importantly, however, they also make meaningful distinctions about the value of new information for understanding criminal risks.

     

Violence in Schools: Repeat Victimization,Low Self-Control,and the Mitigating Influence of School Efficacy

Objectives

Examine the distribution of various forms of violent victimization among adolescents in school and the main and interactive effects of low self-control and school efficacy on repeat assault victimization.

Methods

This study used data collected from students and teachers as part of the Rural Substance abuse and Violence Project. We calculated a simple Poisson model of the expected frequencies of adolescents to experience each number of assault, robbery, and weapons victimizations given the total number of each type of victimization reported by the sample. We then tested whether the observed frequencies differed significantly from the expected. Finally, we estimated a series of hierarchical nonlinear models to assess the main and interactive effects of low self-control and school efficacy on repeat assault victimization.

Results

All three forms of violent victimization were non-randomly distributed across students. Low self-control was associated with repeat victimization among assault victims, though this effect was weakened significantly by school efficacy.

Conclusions

Violence in schools is highly concentrated among repeat victims. Efforts to reduce violence in schools should be focused on those who have already been victimized. Schools may be able to limit the effects of low self-control on repeat assault victimization by strengthening school efficacy.

     

Working with Misspecified Regression Models

Objectives

Conventional statistical modeling in criminology assumes proper model specification. Very strong and unrebutted criticisms have existed for decades. Some respond that although the criticisms are correct, there is for observational data no alternative. In this paper, we provide an alternative.

Methods

We draw on work in econometrics and statistics from several decades ago, updated with the most recent thinking to provide a way to properly work with misspecified models.

Results

We show how asymptotically, unbiased regression estimates can be obtained along with valid standard errors. Conventional statistical inference can follow.

Conclusions

If one is prepared to work with explicit approximations of a “true” model, defensible analyses can be obtained. The alternative is working with models about which all of the usual criticisms hold.

     

The Role of Immigration: Race/Ethnicity and San Diego Homicides Since 1970

Objectives

The temporal variation in homicide is examined by studying trends in race/ethnic specific killings (e.g. Blacks, Latinos and Whites). Two substantively important issues are also addressed—a closer examination of the role community heterogeneity plays in homicide levels and the treatment of immigration as an endogenous social process.

Methods

Data are reported homicides in the city of San Diego, California over the period 1960–2010. The address of each killing is geocoded into 341 census tracts.

Results

We find that neighborhoods experiencing increases in the foreign-born population tend to be less violent. White and Latino homicide victimization was reduced significantly as a product of increases in the neighborhood concentration of foreign-born individuals. Supplementary analyses did not find empirical evidence that the influx of foreign-born individuals could (or should) be considered a disruptive social process. Over the past five decennial census periods, the exponential increase in immigration in this border city is not associated with an increase in homicide victimization.

Conclusions

When examined through a wider temporal lens than is typically employed, and accounting for the endogeneity of immigrant residential settlement, we find no support for the claims that immigration is a crime generating social process.

     

To marry a thief? Crime type as a deterrent to cohabitation

Objectives

Using a vignette study, we investigated the relative attractiveness as cohabitation partners of five different types of offenders, male as well as female.

Methods

Respondents advised a hypothetical person whether he or she should start cohabiting with his or her partner who had offended once. Gender and type of offence were systematically varied.

Results

Our findings suggest that violent offenders are equally attractive as serious property offenders. Against expectation, perpetrators of relational violence are not rated as less attractive than other violent offenders, even if they are male, and also when females are the raters. Male violent offenders are rated as less attractive cohabitation partners than female violent offenders. Sex offenders are the least attractive cohabitation partners, particularly those who had offended against a child.

Conclusions

Crime type matters: sex offending impacted consistently negatively on cohabitation advice. This effect may be partly due to the fact that many regard sex offenders as incurable and ‘deviant.’ Violent offending did not elicit markedly negative advice. Perhaps it was considered less of a risk because of the message in the vignette that the prospective cohabitants had a good relationship. It may also be that many young people have been in a fight or have slapped someone in their lives, and, therefore, downplay the seriousness of this offence.

     

Why is the Victimization of Young Latino Adults Higher in New Areas of Settlement?

Objectives

We used multilevel data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to identify factors that account for differences in risk of violent victimization among young Latino adults in new and traditional settlement areas.

Methods

Area-identified NCVS data (2008–2012) were linked with census tract data from the decennial census and American Community Survey to study individual and community contributions to the risk of violent victimization. We analyzed total violence and violence specific to offense types and victim-offender relationship. The analyses were performed adjusting for the complex survey design.

Results

Young Latino adults in new settlement areas have higher victimization rates than their counterparts in traditional areas for total violence and for the majority of violence types studied. Holding constant individual and other contextual factors, Latino population density is a key neighborhood characteristic that explains the observed area differences in victimization, yielding evidence for the hypothesis that co-ethnic support in a community helps protect young Latino adults and contributes to differences in victimization across areas. Also there is evidence that the protective role of Latino population density is stronger for violence involving non-strangers than it is for violence involving strangers. Moreover, we find that the concentration of Latino immigrants, which indicates the neighborhood potential for immigrant revitalization, is another neighborhood factor that protects young Latino adults in both new and traditional settlement areas. However, there is some but limited evidence that the neighborhood-revitalizing role of immigration might be smaller in some contexts (such as some new areas outside central cities), possibly because those areas are heterogeneous in their ability to promote the integration of immigrants.

Conclusions

Our analysis of the NCVS shows the importance of neighborhood factors for the risk of violence among young Latino adults. It provides evidence consistent with co-ethnic support and immigrant revitalization theories. The findings also suggest that the effects of those neighborhood factors may be contingent upon violence type and the context in which they occur. These findings help us understand the difference in the safety of young Latino adults in new and traditional areas.

     

Crime,Employment and Social Welfare: An Individual-Level Study on Disadvantaged Males

Objectives

We seek evidence for economic and social mechanisms that aim to explain the relationship between employment and crime. We use the distinctive features of social welfare for identification.

Methods

We consider a sample of disadvantaged males from The Netherlands who are observed between ages 18 and 32 on a monthly time scale. We simultaneously model the offending, employment and social welfare variables using a dynamic discrete choice model, where we allow for state dependence, reciprocal effects and time-varying unobserved heterogeneity.

Results

We find significant negative bi-directional structural effects between employment and property crime. Robustness checks show that only regular employment is able to significantly reduce the offending probability. Further, a significant uni-directional effect is found for the public assistance category of social welfare on property offending.

Conclusion

The results highlight the importance of economic incentives for explaining the relationship between employment and crime for disadvantaged individuals. For these individuals the crime reducing effects from the public assistance category of social welfare are statistically equivalent to those from employment, which suggests the importance of financial gains. Further, the results suggest that stigmatizing effects from offending severely reduce future employment probabilities.

     

The effects of different saturation levels of the Shifting Boundaries intervention on preventing adolescent relationship abuse and sexual harassment

Objectives

Prior research with the Shifting Boundaries (SB) prevention program suggests that it can prevent adolescent relationship abuse and sexual harassment. We assessed the relative impact of a combined set of SB classroom (SBC) and SB building (school-wide; SBS) interventions on adolescent relationship abuse and sexual harassment outcomes when the program is delivered to all three grades in a middle school (full saturation) compared to when only two or one of the three grades receive it.

Methods

We randomly assigned 23 middle schools (1,764 students) in New York City to varying saturation levels of SB: 6th grade only, 6th and 7th grade, or 6th, 7th, and 8th grade.

Results

Providing SB to only one grade level does just as well at preventing peer violence and adolescent relationship abuse as treating multiple grades. However, there was evidence that additional saturation led to sexual harassment reductions. Schools that delivered SB to 6th and 7th graders (compared to just 6th graders) reduced sexual harassment victimization 6 months post-treatment.

Conclusions

The results largely support a minimalist approach, in that SB may be effective in preventing peer violence and adolescent relationship abuse outcomes by delivery to one grade level. However, there is a need for more research to continue exploring the potential benefits of a saturated delivery of SB across all grades, building on our finding that 6th and 7th grade implementation of SB was more effective at reducing sexual harassment than 6th grade only implementation.