Timing of Change in Criminal Offending Around Entrance into Parenthood: Gender and Cross-Country Comparisons for At-Risk Individuals

Objectives

This article examines the timing of change in criminal offending relative to entrance into parenthood, in light of four competing theoretical frameworks (social control, routine activities, strain and cognitive transformation). Moreover, it analyzes whether criminal developments over time are gender- or country-specific.

Methods

Using samples of men and women at risk of offending in the Netherlands and Norway, this study investigates monthly changes in offending probabilities around the time of first birth (5 years before, 5 years after). The implemented smoothing splines technique allowed for a flexible exploration of changes in offending probabilities for both pre-childbirth and post-childbirth periods.

Results

The results show that the probabilities to offend decline ahead of childbirth for all individuals analyzed. The post-childbirth period is characterized by increases in offending probabilities. However, in these overall trends, the exact timing and magnitude of change differs by gender and country of residence.

Conclusions

The results offer partial support for the cognitive transformation hypothesis because offending rates decline before childbirth. The post-childbirth period converges with assumptions of the strain theory (for males in particular) because offending probabilities increase in this period. Additional analysis investigating changes in property offending shows that economic strain does not explain the upward trend of the overall offending after childbirth.

     

Crime Continuity and Psychological Inertia: Testing the Cognitive Mediation and Additive Postulates with Male Adjudicated Delinquents

Objectives

Crime continuity is one of the best documented and least understood aspects of criminal behavior. Psychological inertia, the notion that cognitive variables mediate the relationship between earlier and later expressions of the same behavior, was tested as a possible explanation for crime continuity.

Methods

The cognitive mediation and additive postulates of the psychological inertia theorem were tested in a path analysis using self-report data from 1170 male delinquent members of the Pathways to Desistance study (Mulvey in Paper presented at the American Society of Criminology Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, 2012). Wave 1 delinquency served as the independent variable, Wave 3 delinquency served as the dependent variable, Wave 2 outcome expectancies for crime, self-efficacy, general criminal thinking, and social capital served as the mediator variables, and 12 different baseline measures from criminological theory served as control variables in this study.

Results

General criminal thinking and low self-efficacy successfully mediated the relationship between past and future offending after age, race, early behavioral problems, peer criminality, family criminality, parental knowledge and monitoring, parental hostility, routine activities, measured intelligence, and precursors for each of the mediators were controlled. Social capital (cumulative disadvantage), by comparison, failed to mediate crime continuity in this study.

Conclusions

Effective cognitive mediation of the relationship between Wave 1 offending and Wave 3 offending and evidence that the effect may be additive offer preliminary support for the cognitive mediation and additive postulates of the psychological inertia theorem. Practical implications of these results include the need to routinely assess cognitive factors in criminal populations and target these factors for intervention.

     

Dissecting the Prevalence and Incidence of Offending During the Crime Drop of the 1990s

Objectives

To evaluate whether the 1990s crime drop reflects a decrease in offending prevalence (the fraction of the population engaged in crime), offending incidence (the frequency of offending among active criminals), or some combination of the two.

Methods

We use individual-level longitudinal data on adolescent offending patterns from the Pittsburgh Youth study (PYS), integrating information from the youngest and oldest cohorts to compare offending among 17–18 year old males at the beginning and end of the 1990s. Logistic and negative binomial regression models are estimated to assess whether there are significant differences in offending prevalence and incidence during the 1990s.

Results

The reduction in property crime rates in the PYS sample during the 1990s can be attributed to declines in both offending prevalence and incidence. The overall decline in serious violence during the 1990s for the full sample was primarily the result of a falloff in prevalence. However, for black youth our results indicate significant reductions in both the prevalence and incidence of serious violence. We did not detect a significant difference in illegal drug sales during the period.

Conclusions

Using longitudinal data on individuals to decompose aggregate crime trends into changes in the prevalence and incidence of offending offers insights into the nature of the 1990s crime drop that cannot be discerned from aggregate crime data. Future research should build on the current study by examining the specific mechanisms that influence change over time in crime prevalence, incidence, or both.

     

During,After, or Both? Isolating the Effect of Religious Support on Recidivism During Reentry

Objectives

To examine the independent and interdependent roles of baseline religious support during incarceration and within-individual changes in religious support on recidivism during the prisoner reentry process.

Methods

Using data from the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative, cross-lagged dynamic panel models are used to examine the respective roles of baseline differences and within-individual changes in religious support on two variety indices encompassing substance use and criminal offending while simultaneously controlling for pre-incarceration levels of substance use and offending.

Results

Findings show that within-individual increases in religious support protect against substance use post-release, while baseline levels of religious support do not significantly influence substance use. Additionally, baseline levels of religious support fail to condition this relationship. Findings assessing criminal offending demonstrate that baseline religious support and within-individual changes in religious support fail to relate to offending independently. However, an interaction term reveals that the combination of the two relates to significantly lower levels of offending post-release.

Conclusions

Findings offer encouragement for those involved in the work of providing religious support to ex-offenders in the community, reaffirming that tailoring support programs to the religious or spiritual ways individuals make meaning in their lives can improve reentry outcomes. Methodologically, failing to distinguish between baseline levels of religious support and post-release changes in religious support fails to capture the complexity of religiosity on the reentry process.

     

Crime,Employment and Social Welfare: An Individual-Level Study on Disadvantaged Males

Objectives

We seek evidence for economic and social mechanisms that aim to explain the relationship between employment and crime. We use the distinctive features of social welfare for identification.

Methods

We consider a sample of disadvantaged males from The Netherlands who are observed between ages 18 and 32 on a monthly time scale. We simultaneously model the offending, employment and social welfare variables using a dynamic discrete choice model, where we allow for state dependence, reciprocal effects and time-varying unobserved heterogeneity.

Results

We find significant negative bi-directional structural effects between employment and property crime. Robustness checks show that only regular employment is able to significantly reduce the offending probability. Further, a significant uni-directional effect is found for the public assistance category of social welfare on property offending.

Conclusion

The results highlight the importance of economic incentives for explaining the relationship between employment and crime for disadvantaged individuals. For these individuals the crime reducing effects from the public assistance category of social welfare are statistically equivalent to those from employment, which suggests the importance of financial gains. Further, the results suggest that stigmatizing effects from offending severely reduce future employment probabilities.

     

A Prospective Examination of Criminal Career Trajectories in Abused and Neglected Males and Females Followed Up into Middle Adulthood

Objectives

To examine the extent to which there are differences in the developmental course of offending among individuals with maltreatment histories, compared to nonmaltreated controls, and whether these patterns vary for males and females.

Methods

This paper uses data from a longitudinal study in which abused and neglected children (N = 908) were matched with non-maltreated children (N = 667) and followed prospectively into adulthood. Group-based trajectory modeling was conducted using official criminal history records collected through mean age 51. Patterns of criminal offending were first considered for the whole sample, with abuse status and sex included as time-stable covariates, and then separately by subgroup (control females, maltreated females, control males and maltreated males).

Results

Analyses revealed that a three-group model provided the best fit (nonoffenders, low-level chronic offenders, mid-level chronic offenders) for the overall sample. Child maltreatment and sex were significant predictors, with offenders more likely to be male and abused/neglected, compared to non-offenders. Separate analyses for the four subgroups revealed some similarities across groups in the characterization of offending trajectories, although trajectories for abused/neglected females differed significantly from trajectories for control females. Additional analyses suggest that desistance from offending may be largely a function of incapacitation due to early death, rather than imprisonment.

Conclusions

These new analyses provide evidence that child maltreatment affects patterns of offending and that there is an impact on females and males, although the impact differs by gender. Future research should build on this work by examining the mechanisms through which child maltreatment leads to differential patterns of offending throughout the life course.

     

A quasi-experimental test of the effects of criminal justice involvement on later mental health

Objectives

While many criminological theories posit causal hypotheses, many studies fail to use methods that adequately address the three criteria of causality. This is particularly important when assessing the impact of criminal justice involvement on later outcomes. Due to practical and ethical concerns, it is challenging to randomize criminal sanctions, so quasi-experimental methods such as propensity score matching are often used to approximate a randomized design. Based on longitudinal data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, the current study used propensity score matching to investigate the extent to which convictions and/or incarcerations in the first two decades of life were related to adverse mental health during middle adulthood.

Methods

Propensity scores were utilized to match those with and without criminal justice involvement on a wide range of risk factors for offending.

Results

The results indicated that there were no significant differences in mental health between those involved in the criminal justice system and those without such involvement.

Conclusions

The results did not detect a relationship between justice system involvement and later mental health suggesting that the consequences of criminal justice involvement may only be limited to certain domains.

     

To marry a thief? Crime type as a deterrent to cohabitation

Objectives

Using a vignette study, we investigated the relative attractiveness as cohabitation partners of five different types of offenders, male as well as female.

Methods

Respondents advised a hypothetical person whether he or she should start cohabiting with his or her partner who had offended once. Gender and type of offence were systematically varied.

Results

Our findings suggest that violent offenders are equally attractive as serious property offenders. Against expectation, perpetrators of relational violence are not rated as less attractive than other violent offenders, even if they are male, and also when females are the raters. Male violent offenders are rated as less attractive cohabitation partners than female violent offenders. Sex offenders are the least attractive cohabitation partners, particularly those who had offended against a child.

Conclusions

Crime type matters: sex offending impacted consistently negatively on cohabitation advice. This effect may be partly due to the fact that many regard sex offenders as incurable and ‘deviant.’ Violent offending did not elicit markedly negative advice. Perhaps it was considered less of a risk because of the message in the vignette that the prospective cohabitants had a good relationship. It may also be that many young people have been in a fight or have slapped someone in their lives, and, therefore, downplay the seriousness of this offence.

     

A randomized clinical trial of tailored interventions for health promotion and recidivism reduction among homeless parolees: outcomes and cost analysis

Objectives

This study conducted a randomized controlled trial with 600 recently released homeless men exiting California jails and prisons.

Methods

The purpose of this study was to primarily ascertain how different levels of intensity in peer coaching and nurse-partnered intervention programs may impact reentry outcomes; specifically: (a) an intensive peer coach and nurse case managed (PC-NCM) program; (b) an intermediate peer coaching (PC) program with brief nurse counseling; and (c) the usual care (UC) program involving limited peer coaching and brief nurse counseling. Secondary outcomes evaluated the operational cost of each program.

Results

When compared to baseline, all three groups made progress on key health-related outcomes during the 12-month intervention period; further, 84.5 % of all participants eligible for hepatitis A/B vaccination completed their vaccine series. The results of the detailed operational cost analysis suggest the least costly approach (i.e., UC), which accounted for only 2.11 % of the total project expenditure, was as effective in achieving comparable outcomes for this parolee population as the PC-NCM and PC approaches, which accounted for 53.98 % and 43.91 %, respectively, of the project budget.

Conclusions

In this study, all three intervention strategies were found to be comparable in achieving a high rate of vaccine completion, which over time will likely produce tremendous savings to the public health system.

     

Can Item-Level Error Correlations Correct for Projection Bias in Perceived Peer Deviance Measures? A Research Note

Objectives

Research indicates respondents overestimate the similarity between their own deviance and that of their peers. Extending Rebellon and Modecki’s (J Quant Criminol 30:163–186, 2014) study, we examine if item-level error correlations in structural models reduce bias for non-peer-based, theoretically derived covariates such as self-control. Our specific interest lies in investigating the theoretical implications and practical value of using the correlated error technique in ‘everyday’ structural equation modeling.

Methods

Using dyadic data and multiple constructs of deviance, we present three sets of structural equation analyses. The first assesses the relationship between peer behavior and deviance via perceptual measures. The second uses identical constructs, but estimates item-level error correlations between perceptual and deviance items. The third replaces perceptions of peer deviance with items measuring peers’ self-reported behavior.

Results

Self-control and demographic variables have equivalent effects in perceptually-based correlated error models and models controlling peer self-reported deviance. However, latent variable adjustments to perceptions of peer behavior fail to bring perceived peer deviance coefficients into line with corresponding coefficients from models using peer self-reports, indicating that perceptions and peer self-reports are distinct constructs.

Conclusion

Researchers cannot use item-level error-correlations to model peer effects without collecting data from peers. They may, however, use these correlations to control for peer effects even when peer self-reports are not available. Because we find strong effects of self-control while maintaining social learning theory’s emphasis on perceptions, we argue that the technique is a form of theoretical reconciliation and recommend criminologists adopt the use of correlated errors in all social influence-based structural models.

     

Exploring the Effect of Exposure to Short-Term Solitary Confinement Among Violent Prison Inmates

Objectives

This study tracked the behavior of male inmates housed in the general inmate populations of 70 different prison units from a large southern state. Each of the inmates studied engaged in violent misconduct at least once during the first 2 years of incarceration (n = 3,808). The goal of the study was to isolate the effect of exposure to short-term solitary confinement (SC) as a punishment for their initial act of violent behavior on the occurrence and timing of subsequent misconduct.

Methods

This study relied upon archival longitudinal data and employed a multilevel counterfactual research design (propensity score matching) that involved tests for group differences, event history analyses, and trajectory analyses.

Results

The results suggest that exposure to short-term solitary confinement as a punishment for an initial violence does not appear to play a role in increasing or decreasing the probability, timing, or development future misconduct for this particular group on inmates.

Conclusions

Upon validation, these findings call for continued research and perhaps a dialog regarding the utility of solitary confinement policies under certain contexts. This unique study sets the stage for further research to more fully understand how solitary impacts post-exposure behavior.

     

An experimental investigation of the influence of deviant peers on own deviancy: A replication study

Objectives

This study is a replication of a study examining the causal impact of a brief exposure to deviant peers on own deviant behavior, i.e., Paternoster et al. (Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 50:476–503, 2013). This study retested this design using different monetary incentives and a female deviant peer.

Methods

A total of 69 university students (61% female) from the Netherlands participated in this laboratory-based study (Mage = 20.64; SD = 2.00) under the façade of a study on individual differences predicting memory recall. Participants could earn up to 10 euros. All participants had the opportunity to cheat to illegitimately earn more money (deviancy). Participants in the experimental condition were exposed to a deviant peer who verbalized her intention to cheat, justified this behavior, and then visibly cheated on the memory recall task.

Results

Although participants in both conditions engaged in some deviancy, the brief exposure to a deviant peer significantly increased the amount of deviancy compared to participants who were not exposed to a deviant peer. These results were consistent after controlling for different demographic and theoretical control variables that predict deviancy.

Conclusions

Although not identical in magnitude, our results echo those found by Paternoster et al. (2013): Even a brief exposure to a previously unknown deviant peer increases the amount of deviant behavior in young adults. Future research should examine factors predicting the susceptibility to (different types and thresholds of) deviant peer influence.

     

Recidivism in a Sample of Serious Adolescent Offenders

Objectives

A broad research literature in criminology documents key aspects of how criminal offending develops and changes over the life span. We contribute to this literature by showcasing methods that are useful for studying medium-term patterns of subsequent criminal justice system involvement among a sample of serious adolescent offenders making the transition to early adulthood.

Methods

Our approach relies on 7 years of post-enrollment follow-up from the Pathways to Desistance Study. Each person in the study was adjudicated delinquent for or convicted of one or more relatively serious offenses during adolescence. Their local jurisdiction juvenile court petition records and their adult FBI arrest records were systematically searched.

Results

We estimate in-sample 7 year recidivism rates in the 75–80 % range. Our analysis also provides recidivism rate estimates among different demographic groups within the sample. Extrapolated long-term recidivism rates are estimated to be on the order of 79–89 %.

Conclusions

The Pathways data suggest that recidivism rates of serious adolescent offenders are high and quite comparable to the rates estimated on other samples of serious offenders in the extant literature. Our analysis also reveals a pattern of heightened recidivism risk during the earliest months and years of the follow-up period followed by a steep decline.

     

Examining Systematic Crime Reporting Bias Across Three Immigrant Generations: Prevalence,Trends, and Divergence in Self-Reported and Official Reported Arrests

Objective

Mounting evidence reveals that foreign-born, first generation immigrants have significantly lower levels of criminal involvement compared to their US-born, second and third-plus generation peers. This study investigates whether this finding is influenced by differential crime reporting practices by testing for systematic crime reporting bias across first, second, and third-plus generation immigrants.

Methods

This study draws on data from the Pathways to Desistance Study, a longitudinal investigation of the transition from adolescence to young adulthood among a sample of serious adolescent offenders. Self-reported and official reports of arrest are compared longitudinally across ten waves of data spanning 7 years from adolescence into young adulthood for nearly 1300 adjudicated males and females.

Results

This study reveals a high degree of correspondence between self-reports of arrest and official reports of arrest when compared within groups distinguished by immigrant generation. Longitudinal patterns of divergence, disaggregated by under-reporting and over-reporting, in self- and official-reports of arrest indicated a very high degree of similarity regardless of immigrant generation. We found no evidence of systematic crime reporting bias among foreign-born, first generation immigrants compared to their US-born peers.

Conclusions

First generation immigrants are characterized by lower levels of offending that are not attributable to a differential tendency to under-report their involvement in crime.

     

A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Public Assistance on Prisoner Recidivism

Introduction

The Welfare Act of 1996 banned welfare and food stamp eligibility for felony drug offenders and gave states the ability to modify their use of the law. Today, many states are revisiting their use of this ban, searching for ways to decrease the size of their prison populations; however, there are no empirical assessments of how this ban has affected prison populations and recidivism among drug offenders. Moreover, there are no causal investigations whatsoever to demonstrate whether welfare or food stamp benefits impact recidivism at all.

Objective

This paper provides the first empirical examination of the causal relationship between recidivism and welfare and food stamp benefits

Methods

Using a survival-based estimation, we estimated the impact of benefits on the recidivism of drug-offending populations using data from the National Corrections Reporting Program. We modeled this impact using a difference-in-difference estimator within a regression discontinuity framework.

Results

Results of this analysis are conclusive; we find no evidence that drug offending populations as a group were adversely or positively impacted by the ban overall. Results apply to both male and female populations and are robust to several sensitivity tests. Results also suggest the possibility that impacts significantly vary over time-at-risk, despite a zero net effect.

Conclusion

Overall, we show that the initial passage of the drug felony ban had no measurable large-scale impacts on recidivism among male or female drug offenders. We conclude that the state initiatives to remove or modify the ban, regardless of whether they improve lives of individual offenders, will likely have no appreciable impact on prison systems.

     

The Situational Prevention of Terrorism: An Evaluation of the Israeli West Bank Barrier

Objectives

Informed by situational crime prevention (SCP) this study evaluates the effectiveness of the “West Bank Barrier” that the Israeli government began to construct in 2002 in order to prevent suicide bombing attacks.

Methods

Drawing on crime wave models of past SCP research, the study uses a time series of terrorist attacks and fatalities and their location in respect to the Barrier, which was constructed in different sections over different periods of time, between 1999 and 2011.

Results

The Barrier together with associated security activities was effective in preventing suicide bombings and other attacks and fatalities with little if any apparent displacement. Changes in terrorist behavior likely resulted from the construction of the Barrier, not from other external factors or events.

Conclusions

In some locations, terrorists adapted to changed circumstances by committing more opportunistic attacks that require less planning. Fatalities and attacks were also reduced on the Palestinian side of the Barrier, producing an expected “diffusion of benefits” though the amount of reduction was considerably more than in past SCP studies. The defensive roles of the Barrier and offensive opportunities it presents, are identified as possible explanations. The study highlights the importance of SCP in crime and counter-terrorism policy.

     

Retrieving administrative data to assess long-term outcomes: a case study of the 23-year follow-up of the Milwaukee domestic violence experiment

Objectives

To describe how social scientists, criminal justice practitioners, and administrative agencies collected administrative data to follow-up a criminological experiment after two decades. To make recommendations that will guide similar long-term follow-ups.

Methods

A case study approach describes the processes of and sociological benefits to collecting administrative data to assess criminal justice and life-course outcomes.

Results

While maintaining experimental integrity, we developed, executed, and verified processes to retrieve arrest, mortality, and residential data for the experimental subjects, which enabled us to complete the longest ever follow-up of a criminal justice experiment.

Conclusions

When experiments have policy implications, administrative data may be preferable to survey data for assessing primary effects. Successful social science research can be conducted in conjunction with multiple administrative agencies.

     

A quasi-experimental evaluation of the impact of bike-sharing stations on micro-level robbery occurrence

Objectives

To examine if the implementation of bike-sharing stations is linked to robbery occurrence in micro-level street corner units in Cincinnati, OH, USA.

Methods

Propensity score matching was used to select comparison street corner units. The effect of bike-sharing station implementation on robbery occurrence across weekly, biweekly, and monthly observations was estimated using repeated measures multi-level logistic regression models.

Results

Bike-sharing stations did not statistically significantly link to robbery occurrence in immediate or nearby street corner units after implementation.

Conclusions

Numerous explanations consistent with Crime Pattern Theory may explain the null effect of bike-sharing stations on robbery occurrence. Future research should continue to examine how changes in the urban backcloth, such as bike-sharing stations, impact geographic crime patterns.

     

Target Selection Models with Preference Variation Between Offenders

Objectives

This study explores preference variation in location choice strategies of residential burglars. Applying a model of offender target selection that is grounded in assertions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, crime pattern and social disorganization theories, it seeks to address the as yet untested assumption that crime location choice preferences are the same for all offenders.

Methods

Analyzing detected residential burglaries from Brisbane, Australia, we apply a random effects variant of the discrete spatial choice model to estimate preference variation between offenders across six location choice characteristics. Furthermore, in attempting to understand the causes of this variation we estimate how offenders’ spatial target preferences might be affected by where they live and by their age.

Results

Findings of this analysis demonstrate that while in the aggregate the characteristics of location choice are consistent with the findings from previous studies, considerable preference variation is found between offenders.

Conclusions

This research highlights that current understanding of choice outcomes is relatively poor and that existing applications of the discrete spatial choice approach may underestimate preference variation between offenders.

     

A Network Analysis of Factors Leading Adolescents to Befriend Substance-Using Peers

Objective

Our interest is in the systematic network selection processes that lead adolescents into friendships with substance-using peers. Theory suggests that adolescents with certain risk factors (i.e., weak attachments to conventional society and low self-control) are more likely to select substance-using friends. Our goal is to evaluate whether adolescents with particular risk factors have a greater risk for befriending substance-using peers, while controlling for common network selection processes that can produce the same friendship pattern. These selection processes are important as they help to set the stage for later peer influence on substance use.

Methods

We use a Stochastic Actor-Oriented Model to examine network change among 1373 adolescents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We test whether low self-control and indicators of weak attachments (to family, school, and religion) predict selecting friends engaged in alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana use.

Results

We find widespread evidence of the hypothesized friendship pattern within adolescent friendship networks. In most cases this pattern is a product of selection based on the risk factor and substance use, and not attributable to other selection mechanisms.

Conclusions

We highlight the need to broaden the study of delinquency to account for how adolescents come to acquire friends who may be negative sources of peer influence. We offer theoretical and methodological insight to this question, ultimately finding that only in limited cases are adolescents with particular risk factors more likely to select friends involved in substance use. We discuss implications for theory and future investigations of peer influence.