城市工业火灾风险评估

火灾是对人类危害最为严重的灾害之一,特别是城市工业火灾造成巨大的经济损失与人员伤亡。本文介绍了火灾风险评估的几种模型,评述了这些模型的优缺点。在分析城市工业火灾发生原因的基础上,建立了城市工业火灾评估指标体系,并运用模糊综合判断评估方法对城市工业的火灾安全进行了风险评估,通过评估可得出该工业所属的安全等级,使管理者及时采取措施,以减少工业火灾危险性。     

Reconceptualizing organizational change in the Comprehensive Gang Model

Organizational change and development is one of the cornerstones of successful crime prevention and intervention efforts, yet it has received little empirical attention in the areas of crime and justice. This lack of empirical attention extends to the national Comprehensive Gang Model, which explicitly states that organizational change and development is a key strategy. Borrowing concepts from the management field, the authors argue that the Comprehensive Gang Model should be reconceptualized so that organizational change and development is the foundation upon which other strategies are built. Application of this re-specified model is demonstrated through a case study in central Massachusetts utilizing learning communities as a vehicle to obtain sustainable change. Assessment of the organizational change and development is also discussed.     

一种半定量建筑火灾风险评估体系

为满足大量建筑火灾风险评估工作的需要,本文依据火灾风险评估的定义建立一种半定量建筑火灾风险评估体系.通过风险矩阵,由每个火灾场景的火灾发生概率和火灾危害程度,确定每个火灾场景的火灾风险,各火灾场景风险之和为建筑的火灾风险.在确定火灾发生概率时,借助事故控制因子考虑评估对象的特征,从人员脆弱性因子、建筑脆弱性因子和火灾发展阶段危害控制能力因子考虑了影响火灾危害程度的主要因素.在确定因素权重和因子赋值的过程中使用了模糊综合评价法、层次分析法和多属性评价法.最后运用该评估体系对某医院建筑进行了评估.     

当代英美刑法中的人格地位与人格评估

随着"报应模式"在当今英美刑法领域的衰微,犯罪人在英美刑法中的地位不断提高,刑法适用越来越重视人格.人格评估的方式在英美之间不尽相同,美国通过犯罪史进行评估,英国使用罪犯评估系统.     

A National Survey of Juvenile Risk Assessment

Juvenile courts in the United State are using risk assessment to measure relative levels of risk posed by delinquent offenders. Risk assessment aids in decisions about restrictiveness, supervision and the type and intensity of treatment needed. The current study surveyed all states in an effort to define the current state-of-the-art in juvenile risk assessment. The results indicate most states have some semblance of risk assessment of juvenile offenders, but a minority of states have formal risk assessment instruments. The predominate risk factors measured in the 50 states include measures of offense severity, past history of offenses, age of the offender, psychological measures, use of community resources, substance abuse, prior institutionalization, family problems, peer group association and absconding. This qualitative research provides an overview of the scope and sophistication of juvenile risk assessment and may provide models for states wishing to implement risk assessment.     

Risk Assessment for Juvenile Justice: A Meta-Analysis

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.