An analysis of repressed inflation in two transition economies

We construct a simple model that tests for repressed inflation by estimating a “true” rate of inflation that explains behavior of observed money demand. We estimate the model using quarterly data for Czechoslovakia and Poland. Although our results should be viewed as preliminary, given the imperfect nature of our data, we do have strong evidence that, prior to 1991, there was considerable repressed inflation in Poland, while there was essentially no repressed inflation in Czechoslovakia.     

The Effect of Incomes Policies on Inflation in Bulgaria and Poland

Transition countries, and many other countries with incomplete markets, have faced long periods with both high inflation and unemployment. Policies to reduce inflation without high unemployment include incomes policies, which were widely employed in transition countries. This paper studies the effects of incomes policies on inflation in Bulgaria and Poland in 1990-1993. The actual policies, which were complex and changing, are examined. The policies do not appear well-designed in a technical sense to reduce inflation. A time-series analysis is made which includes standard determinants of inflation including past inflation, wage increases, exchange rate changes, and monetary changes, plus a dummy for incomes policies. The regressions are fairly successful in fitting standard factors that should influence inflation, particularly the exchange rate and unemployment in Bulgaria and wages and unemployment in Poland. They find a fairly substantial inflation-reducing effect from the Bulgarian policy but no significant results from the Polish policy.     

Self-destructing prophecies: Long-term forecasting of municipal correctional bed need

Although municipal jails consume a significant amount of resources and the number of inmates housed in such facilities exploded in the 1990s, the literature on forecasting jail populations is sparse. Jail administrators have available discussions on jail crowding and its causes, but do not have ready access to applications of forecasting techniques or practical demonstrations of a jail inmate population forecast. This article argues that the underlying reason for this deficiency is the inherent unpredictability of local long-term correctional population levels. The driving forces behind correctional bed need render local jail population forecasts empirically valid only for a brief time frame. These inherent difficulties include the volatile nature of jail populations and their greater sensitivity when compared with prison populations to local conditions; the gap between the data needed for local correctional population forecasting and what is realistically available to forecasters; the lack of reliable lead variables for long-term local correctional population forecasts; the clash of the mathematics of forecasting and the substantive issues involved in the interpretation of forecast models; and the significant political and policy impacts of forecasts on local criminal justice systems and subsequent correctional population trends.The differences between the accuracy of short-term versus long-term jail bed need forecasts means that forecasting local correctional bed need is empirically valid for, at best, one to two years. As the temporal cast is extended, longer-term forecasts quickly become error prone. Except for unique situations where jails exist in highly stable local political, social, and criminal justice environments, long-term forecasts of two years or greater are fatally flawed and have little empirical accuracy. Long-term forecasts of local jail bed needs are useful, though, as policy catalysts to encourage policymakers to consider possible long-term impacts of current decisions, but forecasts should be thought of and presented as one possible future scenario rather than a likely reality. Utilizing a demonstration of a local jail forecast based upon two common empirical forecasting approaches, ARIMA and autoregression, this article presents a case study of the inherent difficulties in the long-term forecasting of local jail bed need.     

Medicare program; update of ambulatory surgical center (ASC) payment rates effective for services on or after October 1, 1995-HCFA. Notice

This notice implements section 1833(i)(2)(C) of the Social Security Act, which mandates an automatic inflation adjustment to Medicare payment amounts for ambulatory surgical center (ASC) facility services during the years when the payment amounts are not updated based on a survey of the actual audited costs incurred by ASCs.     

South Africa’s inflation persistence: a quantile regression framework

We study inflation persistence in South Africa using a quantile regression approach (We would like to thank two anonymous referees for many helpful comments. However, any remaining errors are solely ours). We control for structural breaks using a quantile structural break test on a long span of inflation data. Our study includes persistence estimates for headline and core inflation—thus controlling for possible biases emanating from extremely volatile periods. South Africa’s inflation persistence is lowest during the inflation targeting period regardless of the inflation measure. Inflation persistence is also constant over all quantiles during the inflation targeting regime for core inflation. There is a difference between the estimates from headline and core—headline persistence increases in relation to higher quantiles. Thus energy and food price shocks might de-stabilise inflation altogether.     

通货膨胀目标制的内涵及在中国的检验

通货膨胀目标制是当今世界流行的一种货币政策制度.尽管学术界至今对通货膨胀目标制存在不同意见,但对这一制度的有关特征是有共识的,即要明确规定一个数量化的通货膨胀目标;货币政策操作应该有相当高的透明度;中央银行对通货膨胀目标的实现承担责任.此外,通货膨胀目标制是一个包括操作工具、操作目标、信息变量和最终目标在内的有关货币政策制定和实施的系统.本文构建了这一制度的模型框架,并用中国的数据检验了其适用性.结果表明,灵活通胀目标制规则在当前中国的货币政策实践中并不非常适合.     

Differential inflation,Phillips curves,and price competitiveness in a new euro-member country

This article analyzes the inflation process before and after a new country with a middle-income joined the eurozone. It starts with comparative price level gaps in the European single market and with a reformulated basic macroeconomic model for a country adopting the euro. The inflation process in Slovenia is analyzed with the Phillips curve. The Phillips curve before adoption of the euro is a classical equation with the NAIRU and the nominal exchange rate as a control variable. It was expected that the Phillips curve would have to be modified after the euro was adopted. The Phillips curve after the euro was adopted should take into account the initial comparative price level gap, the law of one price, and the Balassa effect. The result is higher differential inflation; that is, national inflation is higher compared with the rate in the eurozone. Differential inflation may have a detrimental effect on export-driven catch-up growth. Instruments for taming inflationary pressure could include a higher unemployment rate and lower growth of labour unit costs.     

Explicit inflation targets and central bank independence: friends or foes?

The paper studies the relationship between two institutional innovations in monetary policy of the past few decades: central bank independence (CBI) and explicit inflation targeting (EIT). The aim is to make inferences about the optimal institutional design of monetary policy, and the right sequencing of policy reform. Our reduced-form model unifies several approaches in the literature, and offers three novel institutional findings (that we square with existing empirical evidence). First, instrument-CBI is a complement to EIT, whereas goal-CBI acts as a strategic substitute for EIT in ensuring low inflation and policy credibility. Second, out of these two ‘commitment technologies,’ EIT is shown to be socially superior to goal-CBI. Third and controversially, countries that first implement goal-CBI are then less likely to adopt the desirable EIT regime. This is because independent central bankers may have less need to do so (their independence partly substitutes for EIT), as well as less willingness to do so (due to a higher degree of accountability associated with a transparently legislated target). Our analysis therefore implies that developing and emerging market countries should go down the New Zealand route—legislate EIT together with instrument-CBI, but stay clear of goal-CBI. Unfortunately, many transition countries have followed the opposite Fed/Bundesbank route, which we show may have adverse welfare consequences through several channels.     

“I Had a Confidence Epiphany!”: Obstacles to Combating Post-Identification Confidence Inflation

Research shows that eyewitnesses often become more confident with their selections from a lineup over time, a problem labeled "confidence inflation." Wells et al. (1998) Law and Human Behavior, 22, 603-647 suggested that eyewitnesses provide a confidence statement immediately following their selection to capture an unadulterated measure of confidence. Three experiments tested the effectiveness of introducing such a statement to combat the effects of confidence inflation on mock-juror judgments. All experiments provided evidence that the attributions participants formed about the eyewitness' confidence inflation differentially impacted their judgments. Although mock-jurors generally discredited eyewitnesses who showed confidence inflation and sometimes lowered probability of guilt ratings for the defendant, a clear exception occurred when mock-jurors attributed the inflation to an epiphany. Use of post-identification confidence statements to decrease the impact of confidence inflation in the courtroom may be insufficient.     

Acquisitive Crime and Inflation in the United States: 1960–2012

Objectives

Inflation is conspicuous by its absence from recent research on crime and the economy. We argue that price inflation increases the rate of crimes committed for monetary gain by fueling demand for cheap stolen goods.

Methods

The study includes inflation along with indicators of unemployment, GDP, income, consumer sentiment, and controls in error correction models of acquisitive crime covering the period from 1960 to 2012. Both short- and long-run effects of the predictors are estimated.

Results

Among the economic indicators, only inflation has consistent and robust short- and long-run effects on year-over-year change in the offense types under consideration. Low inflation helps to explain why acquisitive crime did not increase during the 2008–2009 recession. Imprisonment rates also have robust long-run effects on change in acquisitive crime rates.

Conclusions

Incorporating inflation into studies of crime and the economy can help to reduce the theoretical and empirical uncertainty that has long characterized this important research area in criminology.

     

When Does Evidence of Eyewitness Confidence Inflation Affect Judgments in a Criminal Trial?

Two studies investigated perceptions of eyewitness confidence inflation: increases in a witness's confidence between the time of the identification and the trial. Experiment 1 (N = 90) demonstrated that, for White participants, assessments of the strength of the defense case, the eyewitness's view, and participants' confidence in the eyewitness's accuracy were more favorable to the defense when there was evidence that the eyewitness's confidence increased over time (mere inflation condition), compared with a control condition. In addition, assessments of the defendant's guilt and the eyewitness's accuracy were more favorable to the defense when the eyewitness was aggressively challenged about the change in her confidence report (inflation + challenge). Experiment 2 (N = 360) demonstrated that, for Hispanic participants, sensitivity to confidence inflation did not interact with manipulations of the eyewitness's or defendant's race (White vs. Hispanic). In addition, the confidence inflation effect did not replicate with the Hispanic participants. Results are interpreted in terms of the ingroup bias in legal judgments and directions for future research.     

Treatment adherence of maltreating families: A survey of professionals regarding prevalence and enhancement strategies

Maltreating parents often do not identify themselves as having a problem and are usually not self-referred for evaluation or treatment. As a result, treatment adherence problems are believed to be common. Unfortunately, the literature to date about the extent of the problem and what to do about it is sparse. The present investigation focuses on two types of treatment adherence by maltreating families: session attendance and homework completion. The goals of the study were the following: (a) provide information on the extent of the problem of nonadherence; (b) examine the relationship between nonadherence and client, treatment, and professional factors; and (c) provide information on the use and effectiveness of strategies to facilitate adherence. A survey was sent to 300 mental health and social service agencies nationwide and completed by 105 professionals. The survey requested specific data on three randomly selected maltreating parents from each respondent's current caseload. Data were obtained on 303 maltreating parents. Implications of the results for intervention and future research are discussed.     

转型期的中国货币政策规则：基于拟合效果的选择

从拟合效果的角度来分析通货膨胀目标制和泰勒规则这两大最流行的货币政策规则在中国的选择问题,研究结果表明,从对中国利率走势的预测能力来看,通货膨胀目标制远远优于泰勒规则.因此,中国人民银行要想提高对宏观经济的把握能力,及时准确地获取宏观经济信息,应该选择通货膨胀目标制并积极创造实行通胀目标制的各种条件.     

Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?

Recent arguments, motivated partly by the new fiscal theory of price level, suggest that fiscal deficits undermine price stability in transition economies. This paper addresses these claims by examining vector-autoregressive models of inflation for three transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania and Russia). The results indicate that fiscal deficits have increased inflation in Bulgaria and Romania but not in the case of Russia. In Bulgaria and Romania, money aggregates and exchange rate have also been more influential to inflation than fiscal deficits. The analysis based on this method therefore suggests that while fiscal deficits have some influence on inflation, monetary factors mostly determine inflation in these three countries.     

A Novel End to the Big Inflation in China in 1950*

The Chinese inflation of 1949-1950 was fueled by large budget deficits but was ended in March 1950 before significant deficit reduction occurred. We discuss the fiscal strains that gave rise to this inflation and consider the role played by early Communist market-based anti-inflationary measures such as the 'economic warfare' against speculators conducted by the government's state trading companies. While later monetary and fiscal tightening sustained the stabilization achieved in March – at considerable cost to the real economy – the Chinese experience seems to confirm that there is more to inflation stabilization than fiscal balance alone.     

Survey reveals knowledge and attitudes of Canadians regarding HIV/AIDS

According to a national survey, almost two out of every three Canadians think the federal government should be spending more to fight HIV/AIDS. The survey also found that: (a) although most Canadians know a lot about HIV/AIDS, there are some significant gaps in their knowledge; and (b) although most Canadians think HIV/AIDS is a serious problem, the vast majority do not consider themselves to be at risk for HIV infection. Few Canadians blame people for contracting HIV through sex or drug use, but many Canadians are still uncomfortable associating with people with HIV/AIDS in certain settings.     

Asymmetric Loss Functions for Forecasting in Criminal Justice Settings

The statistical procedures typically used for forecasting in criminal justice settings rest on symmetric loss functions. For quantitative response variables, overestimates are treated the same as underestimates. For categorical response variables, it does not matter in which class a case is inaccurately placed. In many criminal justice settings, symmetric costs are not responsive to the needs of stakeholders. It can follow that the forecasts are not responsive either. In this paper, we consider asymmetric loss functions that can lead to forecasting procedures far more sensitive to the real consequences of forecasting errors. Theoretical points are illustrated with examples using criminal justice data of the kind that might be used for “predictive policing.”     

Revisiting Respondent “Fatigue Bias” in the National Crime Victimization Survey

For more than three decades the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)—and its predecessor the National Crime Survey (NCS)—have been used to calculate estimates of nonfatal crime in the United States. Though the survey has contributed much to our understanding of criminal victimization, some aspects of the survey’s methodology continue to be analyzed (e.g., repeat victimizations, proxy interviews, and bounding). Surprisingly, one important aspect of NCVS methodology has escaped this scrutiny: respondent fatigue. A potential source of nonsampling error, fatigue bias is thought to manifest as respondents become “test wise” after repeated exposure to NCVS survey instruments. Using a special longitudinal NCVS data file, we revisit the presence and influence of respondent fatigue in the NCVS. Specifically, we test the theory that respondents exposed to longer interviews during their first interview are more likely to refuse to participate in the survey 6 months later. Contrary to expectations based on the literature, results show that prior reporting of victimization and exposure to a longer interview is not a significant predictor of a noninterview during the following time-in-sample once relevant individual characteristics are accounted for. Findings do demonstrate significant effects of survey mode and several respondent characteristics on subsequent survey non-participation.     

Superficial Survey Choice: An Experimental Test of a Potential Method for Increasing Response Rates and Response Quality in Correctional Surveys

Objectives

Drawing on prior theoretical and empirical work on survey participation, this study develops one potential method for increasing response rates and response quality in correctional surveys. Specifically, we hypothesize that providing inmates with a superficial survey choice (SSC)—that is, a choice between completing either of two voluntary surveys that are actually differently ordered versions of the same questionnaire—will increase their motivation both to participate in a given survey and to respond thoughtfully to the questions asked therein.

Methods

We test the effectiveness of this method by evaluating its impact on unit nonresponse, item nonresponse, and answer reliability. To do this, we analyze experimental data from a recent survey of male inmates incarcerated in a medium security, private prison.

Results

Findings indicate that the overall response rate is higher among inmates who are provided a survey choice. In addition, the evidence shows that the SSC method increases the percentage of individual items completed, the number of demanding questions completed, and the reliability of reported responses.

Conclusion

The results from the analyses are consistent with the hypotheses that motivated this study and suggest that the SSC method holds promise as a tool for correctional researchers.     

Confidence inflation in eyewitnesses: Seeing is not believing

Purpose. Confidence inflation in eyewitnesses obscures a useful cue to identification accuracy and affects evaluations of eyewitnesses (e.g., Bradfield & McQuiston, 2004; Jones, Williams, & Brewer, 2008). We examine whether sensitivity to confidence inflation evidence is enhanced by seeing a videotape of the identification procedure. Methods. Participants (N= 131) watched a videotaped trial in which the witness's original confidence statement was presented as part of a previously recorded videotaped identification procedure or read by the witness at trial. In addition, the witness's identification confidence was either consistently high or low at the time of the identification and high at the trial (i.e., it was inflated). Results. Significant interactions demonstrated that confidence inflation evidence factored into judgments of the eyewitness and defendant guilt more strongly in the videotape condition compared with the read condition. Conclusions. The present results support recommendations to collect immediate confidence reports and videotape identification procedures. Using videotape evidence may help innocent defendants convince jurors that the eyewitness's identification is not accurate.