Discovering sources of inequality in transition economies: a case study of rural Vietnam

Applying the recently developed inequality accounting framework, we quantify contributions of fundamental variables to consumption inequality in rural Vietnam. It is found that major determinants of the inequality include location, education, infrastructures. From 1993 to 1998, the contributions of education, physical capital, labour and community infrastructure to total inequality increased while those of land and credit access declined. Ethnicity is found to play a decreasing role in composing total inequality. Policy implications are discussed.

Human capital,instability and foreign investment in transition economies

I argue that the West should lend money to the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (FSUEE) to prevent excessive deterioration of its human capital stock. Such loans can improve the recipient countries' welfare by allowing them to enjoy the long-run benefits of a large human capital stock without incurring the costs of maintaining these stocks through lean economic times. The West can receive a fully competitive rate of return on these loans, and future foreign investors will be able to earn high rates of return by supplying physical capital to a newly stabilized FSUEE with abundant human capital.     

Forecasting economies in transition: The case of Romania

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable ‘true’ economy to be discovered. This paper extends the analysis of Hall (1993) by exploring the consequences of endemic structural change for forecasting and building structural econometric models. We propose a model formulation which makes the econometric model itself able to adjust its parameters in the light of economic change using the Kalman Filter. The paper then illustrates this approach by building a small model of Romania and investigating its forecasting properties.     

An analysis of repressed inflation in two transition economies

We construct a simple model that tests for repressed inflation by estimating a “true” rate of inflation that explains behavior of observed money demand. We estimate the model using quarterly data for Czechoslovakia and Poland. Although our results should be viewed as preliminary, given the imperfect nature of our data, we do have strong evidence that, prior to 1991, there was considerable repressed inflation in Poland, while there was essentially no repressed inflation in Czechoslovakia.     

New capital accumulation in transition economies: implications for capital-labor and capital-output ratios

This paper investigates the impact of new capital accumulation on capital-labor and capital-output ratios in 26 transition economies (TE) of Central and Eastern Europe and former USSR. Using a perpetual inventory method, we estimate the amount of capital accumulated in these countries since the start of market reforms and compare it to results for developed countries and largest emerging market economies. We found that on per worker basis, capital accumulation in TE is lagging far behind that of their mature market neighbors in European Union. Disparities in capital-output ratios were not as pronounced, as higher capital-labor ratios were reached in economies with higher levels of GDP per capita. Regression analysis indicates that capital per worker was accumulated faster in TE having higher saving rates, relatively higher priced labor, closer proximity to Western Europe, and higher manufacturing share in the economy. The K/Y levels were influenced by the same determinants except for relative input costs.     

Nexus between income inequality and consumption of renewable energy in India: a nonlinear examination

Economic Change and Restructuring - While the association between income inequality and environmental degradation has been researched extensively by various scholars, the impact of income...     

A model of unbalanced sectorial growth with application to transition economies

This paper studies the implications of a dynamic general equilibrium model with three production sectors, which are agriculture, industry and services. Due to the assumption of increasing returns, our model has multiple equilibria. There are two stable equilibria: one, in which a country produces only agricultural goods and converges to a steady state, and the other, in which a country operates all three sectors and has positive unbalanced long-run growth with contracting agriculture and expanding industry and services. These predictions agree well with the real-world development experiences of rich and poor countries. In the context of our model, we also investigate the evolution of the sectorial composition in the transition countries and find that such countries move to the rich rather than to the poor world.

The impact of population heterogeneity and income inequality on homicide rates: a cross-national assessment

The current research produces regression models with sample sizes from 127 to 131 by initially employing a data set of 170 nations. The current study finds that ethnic heterogeneity and linguistic heterogeneity lead to higher homicide rates. However, religious heterogeneity has no impact on homicide rates. The present article also tests an interaction effect between population heterogeneity and income inequality. Unlike J. R. Blau and Blau (1982) and Avision and Loring (1986) proposition, the interaction term is not related to national homicide rates. The current study also discusses the theoretical implications of those findings.     

Tripartite decomposition of labor productivity growth,FDI and human development: evidence from transition economies

This study investigates the relative contribution of technological change, technological catch-up and capital deepening as drivers of labor productivity growth in 14 transition economies during the period 2000–2012. In addition, the study extends the usual decomposition of labor productivity growth by encompassing the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on labor productivity growth in transition economies. To illustrate the relative contribution of FDI as a driver of labor productivity growth, we present a simple theoretical model that augments Kohli [Labour productivity vs. total factor productivity. IFC Bulletin 20 (April), Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, International Statistical Institute, 2005] and Grosskopf et al. (Aggregation, efficiency, and measurement, Springer, New York, pp 97–116, 2007) decomposition of the labor productivity. The insights derived in this model provide an underpinning to the empirical analysis in this study. Using Blundell–Bond dynamic panel General Method of Moments estimators, the main finding of dynamic panel data regressions shows that technological catch-up, technological change, and human development level, trade and demographic of population ageing are the main factors that affect labor productivity growth in transition countries. Furthermore, the findings of dynamic panel data regressions show insignificant positive impact of FDI on productivity growth in transition economies. One explanation is that the 14 transition economies that are included in this study do not reach a minimum human development threshold level.     

论宏观审慎层面金融监管体制改革方向

宏观审慎监管强调从金融体系整体出发以有效防范系统风险,发达经济体的监管改革实践表明,虽然监管体制模式存在差异,但明确负责系统风险防范的监管机构已成为当下宏观审慎层面金融监管体制改革的共识。单一监管制是在完善监管机构职责基础上强化中央银行维护金融稳定的权责完善的系统风险防范体制,多头监管制则是建立独立的负责系统风险防范的机构或组织。上述两种模式实质体现出中央银行与监管机构的协调合作以及监管机构之间的协调合作是宏观审慎层面金融监管体制的改革方向。完善我国的部级监管联席会议制度将为未来我国宏观审慎层面监管体制的改革方向。     

Investment and labor income shares

Economic Change and Restructuring - We explore empirically the determinants of labor shares focusing on the role of investment. We use a cross-country framework and consider up to 99 countries for...     

Some stylised facts about cash and black economies in Germany

The currency approach assumes black economies to entail larger cash volumes than those needed for transactions in the official economy. Estimates of this hypothesis use e.g. overall cash data. But, for the case of Germany, the growing DM cash amounts in circulation did not only accompany transactions in the national economy, they also disseminated in hoards and in international uses. A series of adjusted cash figures is derived which shows the maximum dimension of national cash uses either for official or black activities. The adjusted cash figures in general grew less fast than overall cash, private consumption, GDP or M1 respectively. They even diminished relative to sales figures which often are accused of being a basis for black activities. This enhances the presumption that, contrary to some contentions in the literature, black activities during the times of the DM-regime played a minor or even decreasing role in Germany.     

Investment mobilization and capacity completion in the Chinese and Soviet economies

This paper examines the relationship between the mobilization of resources into capital projects and the completion of new productive capacity in two ‘shortage’ economies—China and the USSR. Causes of delayed commissioning of new capacity, and the role of unfinished construction in the investment cycle, are analysed. Annual data over a long period are presented for both economies—for the USSR 1928–37 and 1950–83, and for China 1950–82. Changes over time in the relationship between investment mobilization and capacity completion are considered, along with differences and similarities between the records of the two economies under investigation.     

Criminals and service providers: Cross-national dirty economies

This article examines the recent evolution of transnational crime. By focusing on two specific criminal activities, namely the trafficking in human beings and the illicit trafficking in arms, it tries to establish the relationship between conventional criminal organisations and the official economy. It concludes by observing that the illegal services provided by conventional criminals to official economic actors are made increasingly redundant, because the latter tend to set up their own illegal practices which service their activity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The trade in people in and from the former Soviet Union

This paper focuses on the trafficking and smuggling of human beings fromand through the former Soviet Union. It explores the reasons for the risein the illegal movement of people; the groups which facilitate it; the demographics of the people who are moved and the business side, includingthe profits, the disposition of profits and the use of corruption to facilitatethe trade. With the disintegration of state control over national territory, this mass movement of people often violates national laws and the national sovereignty of the countries of the Soviet successor states and the countrieswhere the former Soviet citizens move illegally. The paper concludes that thistrade mirrors and contributes to the overall downward development of thepost-Soviet economies. In contrast, a comparative look at the respective Chinese developments indicates that trade in human beings tends to facilitatethe growth of both the Chinese legitimate and illegitimate economies.