Forecasting US–China Relations, 2015

Abstract

Rejecting the certainty of prediction in favor of a probabilistic approach to forecasting, this paper develops an eight-step forecasting methodology, addressing 1) structural drivers, 2) predetermined elements, 3) critical uncertainties, 4) chance, 5) scenarios, 6) probabilities, 7) signposts, and 8) policy implications, and applies it to the medium-term future of US–China relations. Specifically, it forecasts a 45 percent chance that US–China relations in 2015 will be best characterized overall by a rivals scenario, followed by a 35 percent chance that the US and China will be partners. The chances that the US and China will be allies or enemies are significantly more remote, but real, at 5 percent and 15 percent respectively.     

“Bribery with Chinese characteristics” and the use of guanxi to obtain admission to prestigious secondary schools in urban China

Some scholars have attempted to find ways to distinguish guanxi from bribery, which can be difficult due to the role played by four traditional Chinese concepts and practices. First, people value the renqing ethic more than law, making it hard to judge whether a relation has “improper inducements.” Second, some interaction rituals used in bribery guanxi are a type of moral performance, undertaken to justify immoral practice – this mixes together guanxi practice with bribery. Third, some of the “ganqing” (affection) and esteem expressed in bribery guanxi results from this moral performance, rather than from genuine affection and esteem. Fourth, some people try to embody their relationship as an enduring guanxi, rather than one-off bribery, which exacerbates the difficulty in distinguishing guanxi from bribery. Because of the moralizing culture and the custom of mixing together renqinq and bribery, it can be difficult to distinguish bribery from guanxi by attempting to judge whether an action is purely based on esteem or coercion, on an enduring relationship or a one-off exchange, on improper inducement or proper conduct, or other such formal distinctions.     

Thinking about China

From the editors: The July-August 2004 issue of Monthly Review (vol. 56, no. 3) was given entirely to a book-length article entitled China and Socialism: Market Reforms and Class Struggle, written by Martin Hart-Landsberg (a coeditor of Critical Asian Studies) and Paul Burkett. We invited the editors of Critical Asian Studies to participate in a roundtable discussion of the issues that Hart-Landsberg and Burkett have raised. Responses from CAS editors Victor Lippit, Gene Cooper, Alvin So, Mobo C.F. Gao, and Tai-lok Lui appear in this issue. A rejoinder by Hart-Landsberg and Burkett will be published in our December 2005 issue. The article below is a synopsis of the arguments that Hart-Landsberg and Burkett advance in Monthly Review and in the book of the same title (see http://www.monthlyreview.org/chinaand socialism. htm for details). This article appeared originally in New Socialist 51, May- June 2005 (http://www.newsocialist.org). We are grateful for permission to reproduce the article as an introduction to this Roundtable.

Page references in all of the articles in this Roundtable are understood to be to the July-August 2004 edition of Monthly Review.     

Re-Imagining Identity: The Transformation of the Alevi Semah

Until the early 1990s, the Alevi community, a heterodox Islamic sect in Turkey, actively avoided explaining their beliefs to outsiders and were against permitting non-Alevis to enter their cem rituals. By the mid-1990s they began to hold their rituals publicly in the cemevi (lit. cem house) in Turkish cities and in their cultural centres in the diaspora. Almost all Alevi associations or the cemevis in the diaspora and ‘at home' have a semah group educated and organized by the executive. As opposed to rural/traditional cem rituals in which everybody may take part in the dance, the semahs performed in the urban cems are carried out by the semah groups consisting of young men and women. Moreover, these semah groups also perform in the non-ritual context. Thus, if the predominance of semah within the Alevi cem ritual is a ‘fact' to be studied, then differences in their present interpretations in Turkish cities and in the diaspora is another. This article examines these differences in the context of the transformation of the semah from the representation of religious identity to that of ethno-political identity.     

Kalevipoeg: Aspects of Genre and Authorship

F. R. Kreutzwald introduced the Estonian national epic Kalevipoeg (1861) as genuine folklore, overshadowing his own prevalent role in its creation: the problems of genre and authorship persist in the text. Firstly, Kalevipoeg was shaped by the poetics of romantic balladry. This can be proved by its author’s devotion to the ballad; in addition, many a lyro-epic folk song has been integrated into Kalevipoeg. Thus, a ballad-like lyro-dramatical-epical structure bears upon the work which gave rise to a new form: the lyro-epic epic. Secondly, a complex cluster of authorship can be extracted from Kalevipoeg: personal, fictional, intertextual, and discursive authorships.     

Change and Conflict in Contemporary Omani Society: The Case of Kafa'a in Marriage

This article explores the conflict between Omani traditional culture1 ^?1 Bearing in mind the complexity of defining culture, it is defined in this article as what people in Oman think, value, believe and hold as ideas. Thus, culture in contemporary Omani society includes values that are derived from the long-established tribal and Ibadi religious institutions, social structural systems of life and behaviour. View all notes and modern change by examining the practice of kafa'a 2 ^?2 In Arabic, kafa'a literally means ‘equality’. In Islamic legal terminology, kafa'a in marriage refers to the equivalence of the man and the woman, as defined by certain criteria. Specifically, an aspiring husband should be equal or superior to the proposed wife in terms of socio-economic status in order to be accepted as a suitable husband in marriage. In practice, therefore, kafa'a actually perpetuates and indeed promotes inequality between people because it legitimates discrimination against people judged to have lower socio-economic status. Further information on kafa'a in marriage and its legal and historical development in Islamic tradition can be viewed in Amalia Zomeno, ‘Kafa'a in the Maliki School: A Fatwa from Fifteenth Century Fez’, in R. Gleave and E. Kermeli (eds), Islamic Law: Theory and Practice (New York: IB Tauris, 1997), pp. 87–105; and Farhat J. Ziadeh, ‘Equality (Kafa'a) in Muslim Law of Marriage’, The American Journal of Comparative Law, 6(4) (1957), pp. 503–511. View all notes in present-day Oman. kafa'a—which refers to the notion that the husband's family should be equal or superior in terms of social, religious or economic background to the wife's family if the marriage is to be accepted—exemplifies a type of social and legal inequality that is at odds with State rhetoric on equality but congruent with the type of hierarchical social structure traditionally valued by Omanis, which tolerates a high degree of inequality between individuals and groups. I argue that the recognition of kafa'a as a condition of marriage in Article 20 of the Omani Personal Status Law serves to, in effect, reinforce traditional tribal and religious cultural practices in Oman.     

Intercepting Disgrace: Lacuna and “Letter to John Coetzee”

ABSTRACT

This review article examines two palimpsest rewritings of J. M.Coetzee’s canonical but controversial novel, Disgrace (1999). Both rewritings are by women: Lacuna, a novel published in 2019, is by a white South African woman, Fiona Snyckers, and “Letter to John Coetzee” takes the form of a short story by Michelle Cahill, a woman of color living in Australia, published in Cahill’s collection Letter to Pessoa (2016). The article uses Cahill’s coinage of “interceptionality” to discuss how dominant narratives may be disrupted and subverted, particularly when it comes to representing gender-based violence in the arts. It concludes with a discussion of South African artist Gabrielle Goliath’s exhibition, “This song is for … ” (2019).     

A proper study of the discourse on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Methodological implications of a large-scale study of the first Gaza war

Drawing on a large-scale study examining the British broadsheets’ coverage of the first Gaza war, this paper proposes some methodological considerations for analyzing the particularly emotive discourse on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and suggests a reflective multi-methodological approach to account for both the complexities and the intensities of the conflict. The paper starts by arguing that, working with a large data-set, quantitative data are both required and required to be interpreted by acts of contextualisation. Two strategies of contextualization are then introduced: interpreting patterns and associations in the numerical data. Following this, the paper continues by examining the findings and dilemmas that have emerged from quantitative analysis, using qualitative analysis of editorial extracts. It therefore shows examples for how quantitative codes can be built into and built up by narratives and arguments. Doing this, it also demonstrates possible ways of connecting qualitative to quantitative research: explanation, extension, and transformation/subversion.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed: Martin Mulligan and Stuart Hill, Ecological Pioneers: A Social History of Australian Ecological Thought and Action Edited by Bruce Kaye, Tom Frame, Colin Holden and Geoff Treloar, Anglicanism in Australia: A History Colin Holden, Church in a Landscape: A History of the Diocese of Wangaratta Mary Anne Jebb., Blood, Sweat and Welfare: A History of White Bosses and Aboriginal Pastoral Workers David Philips, William Augustus Miles (1796–1851): Crime, Policing, and Moral Entrepreneurship in England and Australia Compiled by Alison Hoyle for State Records of South Australia, Ancestors In Archives: A Guide for Family Historians to South Australia's Government Archives Julie Carr, The Captive White Woman of Gippsland: In Pursuit of the Legend Keith Pescod, Good Food, Bright Fires & Civility: British Emigrant Depots of the 19th Century B.W. Higman, Domestic Service in Australia Joanne Scott, Ross Laurie, Bronwyn Stevens and Patrick Weller, The Engine Room of Government: The Queensland Premier's Department, 1859–2001 Edited by Ann Millar, The Biographical Dictionary of the Australian Senate: Vol. 1 1901–1929 M.D. Johnson, Australia, New Zealand and Federation 1883–1901. By Ged Martin. Ian Ward, Edited by John M. Moses and Christopher Pugsley, The German Empire and Britain's Pacific Dominions, 1871–1919: Essays on the Role of Australia and New Zealand in World Politics in the Age of Imperialism Edited by Martyn Lyons and John Arnold, A History of the Book in Australia 1891–1945 Anna Green, British Capital, Antipodean Labour. Working the New Zealand Waterfront, 1915–1951 George Davies, The Occupation of Japan: The Rhetoric and the Reality of Anglo–Australasian Relations 1939–1952 Tim Rowse, Obliged to be Difficult. Nugget Coombs’ Legacy in Indigenous Affairs Ian Hancock, John Gorton: He Did It His Way Don Watson, Recollections of a Bleeding Heart: A Portrait of Paul Keating PM Mark Finnane, When Police Unionise: the Politics of Law and Order in Australia Bob Carr, Thoughtlines: Reflections of a Public Man Edited by Paul Nursey–Bray and Carol Lee Bachi, Left Directions: Is There a Third Way? Sinclair Dinnen, Law and Order in a Weak State: Crime and Politics in Papua New Guinea Ann Turner, Historical Dictionary of Papua New Guinea, Asian/Oceanian Historical Dictionaries No. 37 Kerry Howe, Nature, Culture and History: the “Knowing” of Oceania W.J. Mander, Alan P.F. Sell, et al., The Dictionary of Nineteenth–Century British Philosophers Manning Clark (Edited by Dymphna Clark, David Headon and John Williams), The Ideal of Alexis de Tocqueville R.B. Rose, Tribunes and Amazons: Men and Women of Revolutionary France, 1789–1871 Ian Hunter, Rival Enlightenments: Civil and Metaphysical Philosophy in Early Modern Germany Maiken Umbach (Ed.), German Federalism: Past, Present, Future Judith Keene, Fighting for Franco: International Volunteers in Nationalist Spain During the Spanish Civil War, 1936–1939 R.J.B. Bosworth, Mussolini Edited by John P. McCormick, Confronting Mass Democracy and Industrial Technology: Political and Social Theory from Nietzsche to Habermas Agnes Heller, A Theory of Modernity Douglas R. Holmes, Integral Europe: Fast–Capitalism, Multiculturalism, Neofascism Rogan Kersh, Dreams of a More Perfect Union     

Kyz ala kachuu and adat: non-consensual bride kidnapping and tradition in Kyrgyzstan

The position of Kyrgyz adat (traditional customary law) on the practice of non-consensual bride kidnapping in Kyrgyzstan has not been documented nor is there a consensus among the ethnic Kyrgyz on whether or not non-consensual bride kidnapping is a Kyrgyz ‘tradition’. This paper provides a review of the historical and ethnographic evidence regarding the frequency and appropriateness (according to Kyrgyz adat) of non-consensual bride kidnapping in traditional Kyrgyz society before the political, economic and social changes of the Soviet period. The evidence presented by this research discredits the widely held belief in Kyrgyzstan, that non-consensual kidnapping is a Kyrgyz adat tradition that was widely practiced with general social approval in ancient times. The information provided in this paper can be used by educators, legislators and the media to demonstrate that non-consensual kidnapping is not legitimated by pre-Soviet Kyrgyz adat tradition.     

Computer analysis of house of commons’ division lists, 1861–1936: A report on current research

SUMMARY

No parliamentary assemblies (Cortes) were held between 1665 and 1700 in the Crown of Castile. In view of this institutional pause, not yet sufficiently well explained historiographically, the questions assailing us are: who held the representation of the kingdom during this time, and how was the exaction of taxes-the millones (tax on basic products), donations, and so on-carried out in political practice, as their levying had to be agreed on in the Cortes.

The answer to the first question is that it was the cabildos (local assemblies or oligarchical municipal assemblies) of the cities with a vote in the Cortes, which legitimately represented the kingdom. It should be remembered that before 1665, during the time when the Parliament was summoned, the cabildos retained the decisive vote, whereas the members of the Cortes meeting in them could only exercise an advisory vote. The reply to the second question obliges us to study the institutional relationship of both a Diputacón de las Cortes (a Deputation of the Cortes) and the Commission of Millones with the cabildos concerning the collection of the levies of the millones and donations.

As well as defining political representation in the early modern era, the thesis of this article is to demonstrate that the cabildos of the Castilian cities with votes in the Cortes, regardless of whether the Cortes were held or not, were the real representatives of the kingdom and the administrators of the treasury in the second half of the seventeenth century. Thus, in Castile too, the government of society was implemented by both the king and the kingdom in accordance with the juridical-institutional criterion, widespread in Western Europe, of the dominium politicum et regale (as described by John Fortescue, Helmut Koenigsberger et al.).     

Lands,Hands and Socio-cultural Boundaries: A Reading of Dhu Nun Ayyub's The Hand,the Land and the Water (1948)

This article offers a literary analysis of the novel The Hand, the Land and the Water (Al-Yad wa'l ard aa'l ma'), written by communist intellectual Dhu Nun Ayyub (b.1908). I read this novel in an attempt to analyze the boundaries between Baghdad and countryside (al-rif), as understood by the novel's protagonists, and to underscore the ways in which such boundaries were not only constructed, but also crossed and challenged. The novel conveys many themes that occupied the Iraqi leftist intelligentsia at the time, such as the abuse of peasants by their sheikhs and by the state. It was one of the first fictional representations of the Wathba, and thus can be seen as an endeavour to understand the meanings of this very important moment in Iraqi history.     

Paiens unt dreit? Reversed dichotomy and the East in Boeve de Haumtone and Bevis of Hampton

ABSTRACT

It is usually accepted that Saracens are evil and Christians are good in medieval narratives. The common medieval thought towards binary opposition can be pointed out by the Chanson de Roland: ‘paiens unt tort e Chrestiens unt dreit’. However, it seems that there is religious prejudice and ignorance towards the Saracens and their geographical location, the East. The Anglo-Norman Boeve de Haumtone is an early medieval narrative that focuses on cross-cultural interaction within a framework that combines political, social and religious events with geographical exploration both in the East and the West. Similarly, Bevis of Hampton is the Middle English version that reshapes the socio historical and religious events on which their sources have focused. The aim of this article is to explore the idea that another East existed during the Middle Ages. This article will address the question of what relation Boeve de Haumtone and Bevis of Hampton might have to crusading geography. It will be argued how and why the East is not portrayed as a scary, evil place as it is in other contemporary romances, and the evidence for this may be presented by the hero’s preference for living in the East for the rest of his life.     

Sexual Slander and the 1965/66 Mass Killings in Indonesia: Political and Methodological Considerations

Indonesia has been haunted by the “spectre of communism” since the putsch by military officers on 1 October 1965. That event saw the country's top brass murdered and the military attributing this putsch to the Communist Party. The genocide that followed was triggered by a campaign of sexual slander. This led to the real coup and the replacement of President Sukarno by General Suharto. Today, accusations about communism continue to play a major role in public life and state control remains shored up by control over women's bodies. This article introduces the putsch and the socialist women's organisation Gerwani, members of which were, at the time, accused of sexual debauchery. The focus is on the question of how Gerwani was portrayed in the aftermath of the putsch and how this affects the contemporary women's movement. It is found that women's political agency has been restricted, being associated with sexual debauchery and social turmoil. State women's organisations were set up and women's organisations forced to help build a “stable” society, based on women's subordination. The more independent women's groups were afraid to be labelled “new Gerwani ” as that would unleash strong state repression. This article assesses the implications of these events for the post-1998 period of Reformasi and reviews some recent analyses of 1965, state terrorism and violence and reveals blind spots in dealing with gender and sexual politics. It is argued that the slander against Gerwani is downplayed in these analyses. In fact, this slander was the spark without which the bloodbath would not have happened and would not have acquired its gruesome significance.     

Non-Muslim citizens as foreigners within: how Ecnebi became Yabancı from the Ottoman Empire to the Turkish Republic

Since the establishment of the Republic in 1923, any non-Muslim born in Turkey, whatever his/her religion, is a Turkish citizen as are any of his/her Muslim fellows. However, sometimes he/she might consider him/herself an alien and might even be regarded as such by the official authorities. The purpose of this article is to shed light on this reality from an historical perspective. Based on the comparison of two terms (ecnebi and yabanc?, both meaning foreigner) that had become frequently used during the last Ottoman decades, the analysis establishes to what degree ecnebi was replaced by yabanc? in official republic terminology. The article argues that this change might be related to the formation of less visible categories of foreigners that partly originated from the confessional imperial framework based on the differentiation between Muslims and non-Muslims. Far from being set aside as the Kemalists have long claimed, this framework has prevailed. It partly explains to what extent, as a result, in the history of the Turkish Republic, non-Muslim Turkish citizens have sometimes been regarded as ‘foreigners within’ (içerdeki yabanc?).     

Commission Newsletter: 1997

SUMMARY

In this article Sandro Guerrieri discusses the parliamentary proceedings in France of 9–10 July 1940, which set up the Vichy State under the leadership of Marshal Pétain. He was then head of the government of the Third Republic and the motion of 10 July authorized him to consider and promulgate a revised constitution for the French state. In August 1944, these proceedings were formally declared to have been a coup d'état, and therefore legally null and void. It is shown that some of the politicians who voted in the National Assembly against the resolution of 10 July had already asserted this interpretation of the process by which the Vichy State was established. The article reviews the arguments that have developed around this subject, and suggests that while the actual motion, voted by the two Chambers acting as a National Assembly, could be seen as in accordance with the Constitution of the Third Republic, the manner in which it was used by Pétain and his advisers, particularly Pierre Laval, is open to legal challenge, and can be regarded as a usurpation of the powers granted by the National Assembly. Hence while it could be argued that what happened was not a coup d'état, in that the element of intimidatory violence over the legislature, usually seen as one defining characteristic of a coup, was absent, the proceedings can be characterized as at least a coup de force.     

Venerating the pir: patron saints of Muslim ceramists in Uzbekistan

In some Central Asian oasis towns, the patron saints of craftsmen, known as pirs, have continued to be venerated, despite the repression of Islam and changes to the industrial structure during the Soviet Era. This paper analyses the social function and individual significance of pir veneration in the modern era, using ethnographic observations and interviews conducted in a ceramics town in Uzbekistan. Today, many old customs practised in pottery studios have become mere formalities, and the controlling role of the pirs over ceramist groups is declining. However, this is not necessarily indicative of an immediate decline in the pirs’ power. Some ceramists believe their highly skilled masters to be quasi-pirs and that the pir provides them with desirable goals, in addition to an ideal form to which to aspire.     

Documenting Diaspora,Diasporising Memory: Memory and Mediation among Chilean and Uruguayan Hijxs del exilio

Addressing the absence of second-generation exiles from Southern Cone post-dictatorship memory scholarship, this paper compares two documentaries: Hora Chilena, about the British-Chilean community and Tus padres volverán, depicting Uruguayan exiles across Europe – both made by and/or about the no retornadxs (those who did not return to their countries of origin after dictatorship). The paper deploys documentary to offer a nuanced depiction of the hijxs del exilio (children of exile), finding them to be distinct to both the protagonist generation and their second-generation peers in the Southern Cone. By incorporating neglected voices and reframing post-dictatorship memory in Europe, the paper challenges memory narratives about second-generation exile.     

From Renascer to Velho Chico: negotiations between cordiality and modernity in the Brazilian telenovela

ABSTRACT

This article takes as its focus the main Brazilian cultural and media product, the telenovela or soap opera, to discuss the characteristic of the Brazilian personality referred to as the homem cordial (“cordial man”). The article analyses two telenovelas: Renascer (1993) and Velho Chico (2016), which, written by the same author, but in very different historical contexts, sought to recover the trait of cordiality in its essence. In its comparison of the two telenovelas, this study presents and discusses the changes, permanencies and negotiations of a cordial tradition in the face of a particular aspect of modernity represented by both the process of urbanisation and by television itself.     

Sport for Peace: A New Era of International Cooperation and Peace through Sport

“O Sport, You are Peace!

You forge happy bonds between the peoples

by drawing them together in reverence for strength

which is controlled, organised and self disciplined.

Through you the young of the entire world

learn to respect one another,

and thus the diversity of national traits becomes a source

of generous and peaceful emulation!”

Pierre De Coubertin (The founder of the modern Olympic Movement)

Sport is an excellent and powerful tool to promote peace, tolerance, and peaceful coexistence. Sport can bring together people of different ethnicities, nationalities, race, skin color, culture and religion. Sport promotes values, such as respect, honesty and cooperation. Sport has the power and ability to overcome the intercultural and political barriers. Sport can be the significant component of social integration. This article brings into the discussion the theme of sport for peace and a positive role of sport for international cooperation and peace. There is a limited amount of research and literature on the theme of sport and peace or sport for peace. The unique and positive power of sport for bringing about peace and peaceful solutions is not well researched and understood. Therefore, the reason for this article is to try to fill the gap in the existing literature on the theme of sport for peace and broaden the discussion about it. The article focuses on sport for peace initiatives implemented by the International Olympic Committee (IOC), the United Nations (UN) and its agencies, like UNESCO, UNICEF, UNHCR and non-governmental organizations and international sport federations. The article also examines the sport for peace initiatives from Japan, in the example of the Sport for Tomorrow (SFT) Programme of the Japanese Government for Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games and contribution by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in promoting and fostering friendship, cooperation, and peace in the world.