Long Term Influences of Age–Education Transition on the Brazilian Labour Market

The objective of this study is to estimate the long term mean earnings of the male Brazilian population, taking into account the ageing process of the population and the increase in educational attainment. Using census data, household sample surveys, as well as population and education projections, estimates indicate that an ageing population and an increase in education will have a 2 percent impact on the annual growth of an average income in Brazil by 2050. The challenge for the future is to improve the proportion of the Brazilian population with completed college degrees.     

Roadblock to Economic Reform: Inter-Enterprise Debt and the Transition to Markets

Two American specialists on Soviet and East European economies examine the relationship between inter-enterprise payments for goods and services and economic reform in Russia. Based on extensive interviews with Russian governmental officials and enterprise directors, as well as unpublished documents, the authors trace and discuss the unsuccessful policies of the government and Central Bank of Russia to eliminate arrears during 1992-93. They also explain why financial underdevelopment poses a serious obstacle to economic reform, and why an effort to sharply tighten credit in 1993-94 could lead to cascading enterprise failures. The analysis includes references to the change after October 1993. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: P21, O17, G20.     

State Continuismo and Pinochetismo: The Keys to the Chilean Transition

There have been two parallel processes in Chilean political economy during the 1990s. A high profile has been accorded to the transition from authoritarianism to democracy and its related debates. A relatively low profile has been accorded to the continuity in the state model of capitalism that was implemented under authoritarianism. This paper argues that transition can be best understood in terms of the role of Augusto Pinochet and his strategies for maintaining power – Pinochetismo. As such, his forced retirement from political life marks the end of transition. The second point is perhaps of more importance however. The democratic political regime has intensified the model of capitalist accumulation of the 1970s and 1980s and socio-economic polarisation has been perpetuated. While the focus on the nature of transition during the 1990s was necessary, there has been a failure to question the social relations established by capitalism. With the end of transition in July 2001, the greatest challenge for Chilean democracy now lies in creating a state based on social relations that serves the needs of the majority rather than the desires of the few.     

韩国由威权向民主转变的影响因素

韩国20世纪80年代的两次民主运动产生了完全不同的效果.1980年的光州事件遭到镇压,而1987年的六月民主化抗争则成功地实现了总统直选制改宪.主要的影响因素在于:经济社会的发展为韩国在1987年走上民主轨道奠定了坚实的基础.1980年的惨案也迫使威权政府1987年在选择动用武力方面更加谨慎.统治者内部的分化也有助于在1987年通过妥协和平地向民主过渡.在外部因素方面,美国立场的变化至关重要.     

Cuba in Transition? The Civil Sphere's Challenge to the Castro Regime

This article assesses how much the emergence of civil society and private market activities are challenging Cuba's ruling communist regime. The assessment is based on a conceptualization of a "civil sphere," constituted by civil society and private market activities (or the "second economy"), and how this affects democratic transitions from state-socialist societies, using Cuba as a case study. Examining the multiple sectors at play reveals an increasingly organized and vocal opposition, but one hampered by continued government repression. Considering several theoretical and historically possible scenarios, this study concludes that under current conditions, the civil sphere's significant challenge is still not enough for a regime change in the Cuban state.     

权力交替:对中美关系周期性波动的一种解释

本文通过对美国对华政策的决策因素、决策机制和决策程序的分析,提出了解释美国对华政策周期性波动的一种模式--权力交替模式,并检验了这一模式的效用:在过去30年中,总统的权力交替一直是美国对华政策中的一个周期性变量,而国会的权力交替则不时成为美国对华政策的干扰性因素,这在未来亦可能是这样.     

市民社会与俄罗斯的社会转型

市民社会的功能在于整合社会,俄罗斯最初是通过构建市民社会来瓦解传统的极权主义制度而促使社会转型的,但由于市民社会成分在长期过度的社会控制下,市民社会成分爆发出来的力量不是消除社会张力,而是引发社会冲突,它发挥的是否定和破坏功能,因此,在社会转型中,俄罗斯社会出现了经济严重滑坡、政治风诡云谲、社会危机四起的情形。结果,俄罗斯只能重新依赖于强化国家基本职能、加强社会控制来实现社会稳定和社会的理性转型。     

Transition to Upper Secondary School: an Estonian Experience

This is a study of the transition to upper secondary education, an area largely ignored by international educational research. In particular, the study focuses on the transition from compulsory basic education to an academic general upper secondary education in Estonia. This study involves a national survey of school principals as well as case studies. The mixed methods analyses show that a number of barriers can be identified that may have an adverse impact on students’ adjustment to a new learning environment, potentially affecting their educational outcomes and future life-chances. The study places the findings in the context of broader societal processes that have taken place during the last decade in the Baltic countries in general, including Estonia.     

Citizen Activism in the Russian Transition

Two American specialists on Russia report the results of two nationwide surveys conducted in that country in 1992 (N = 1,393) and 1993 (N = 1,598). Focus was on rates and types of political activism and their correlation with attitudes toward economic and political reform. Conclusions are that different types of political activism attract different constituencies. People with higher income and occupational status participate in a wide range of activities but are significantly less likely than others to vote. Those with less to gain from the transition are more likely to vote—perhaps a legacy of communism—but take part less in activities which demand high levels of commitment and resources. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: P29, Jl8.     

亚非复兴视野下中国与发展中国家关系:历史变迁与世界意义

20世纪以来的世界历史是亚非世界实现民族复兴的历史。在这一进程中,中国与发展中国家关系自始便具有某种特殊的历史意义。南南合作曾使中国赢得了应有的国家尊严与国际尊重。中国借助第三世界的整体力量彰显了自己的国际地位与影响,而中国的发展及其外交影响反过来又加强了第三世界在国际斗争中的整体力量,让西方世界不得不重新思考他们与亚非世界的关系。当前中国与发展中国家关系的全面发展,显著推动了亚非发展中国家的整体复兴进程,由此导致国际关系出现结构性变化的新趋向。中国与发展中国家关系也因此具有全新的世界意义。     

Multinational Investment and the Mobility Transition in Mexico and Ireland

Mexico and Ireland, traditionally countries of emigration, experienced pronounced multinationalization of their economies during the 1990s. In Ireland net emigration declined, but in Mexico it remained quite high, suggesting that Ireland advanced in the mobility transition while Mexico did not. Several reasons are offered to explain this, reflecting Mexico's relationships with the United States, multinational corporations, and local income and social conditions in Mexican regions. In Ireland and its relationship with the United Kingdom, by contrast, these factors generally took the reverse direction. This article uses the comparison to examine the relationship between declining emigration and multinational investment and the question of whether Mexico may be expected eventually to reverse its present trends.     

Contesting the Monopoly of Interpretation: The Uneasy Relationship between Ulama and Sunni Parties in Yemen

Most studies on Sunni Islamism either neglect ulama or portray them as basically diverging from the Islamist movement. Unlike their Islamist counterparts who are contenders for political power in incumbent regimes, the ulama are depicted as loyal quietists. As such, this article problematizes this dichotomy. As is shown by the case of Yemen, the ulama form an integral part of the Islamist Islah party, yet since the position of ulama within the party is crucially dependent on their monopoly over interpretation, and as the lay Muslim Brothers have increasingly digressed from the rulings of the ulama, they have sought alliances with their peers outside the party and attempted to undermine the politics of the Brotherhood by means of ulama associations and founding Salafi parties. By focusing on these developments, the article proposes an alternative reading to the allegedly contradictory politics of Islah which might be valid to other Islamist parties too.     

俄罗斯转型中的几个问题

制度变迁带有路径依赖性质,俄罗斯体制转型经历了很长的时期,从新经济政策转向计划体制,又试图从计划体制转向市场体制,但是转型的效果都不好,苏联时期转型的最大特点是把社会主义同商品市场完全对立起来,所以改革只是对原有计划体制的修补,从戈尔巴乔夫后期开始推行激进的转轨,最终导致苏共解散和苏联解体。独立后的俄罗斯全面推行激进的“休克疗法”,但实际上只有“休克”没有“疗效”。俄罗斯转型失败的教训值得我们借鉴。     

未经"改造"的"转型"--西方学术界关于后苏联时期俄罗斯经济转型的研究

俄罗斯的转型进程已经持续了十多年了,事实上仍在继续之中.惟其如此,要把握转型进程今后的发展趋势与动向,就更有必要对过去十余年间转型进程的演变及其中引出的问题有深入的了解.本文的要旨,即在于对这一期间西方学术界关于俄罗斯经济转型问题的研究成果作一大略的介绍,并在此基础上对西方学者的有关看法提出批判性的评述.