The Slowdown in Soviet Industry, 1976–1982

Growth rates of industrial production in the USSR have been falling since 1950, and the drop was especially large in 1976–1982. The falloff was associated with a pronounced deterioration in factor productivity. The most important explanatory factors seem to have been the economy's unfavorable response to a major cutback in the growth ot investment, unexpected shortages ot key raw materials and energy, and transportation bottlenecks. Mistakes in investment policy seem to have been responsible for many of these difficulties. The secular decline in industrial growth probably will continue since the causes of the slowdown are imbedded in the system of socialist central planning and systemic reform is not likely. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 052, 113, 124.     

Japan’s Political Economy and Koizumi’s Structural Reform: A Rise and Fall of Neoclassical Economic Reform in Japan

For five years of his premiership, Jun’ichiro Koizumi bravely fought against politicians, bureaucrats, and interest groups to promote his structural economic reform. Fortunately, by the time he retired, Japanese economy got out of the depression. But the tide changed. In the July 2007 Upper House elections, the public was opposed to structural reform that Koizumi and Abe had advocated. Now it is not clear where Japanese political economy is likely to go. This paper will take a long-term view on the evolution of Japan’s political economy, and try to understand Jun’ichiro Koizumi’s structural reform in that long-term context.

The Origins of the Soviet Oil Crisis, 1970–1985

Soviet oil production peaked in 1983 and declined in 1984, chiefly because the growth of West Siberian output has nearly stopped. The root of the problem is two decades of unbalanced policy favoring near-term payoff over long-term preparation. Exploration has been systematically neglected in favor of development, and the West Siberian oil industry has been built on too narrow a base. Despite warnings from local officials as early as 1970, this led to a first crisis in 1976-1977. Moscow responded with an emergency increase in development drilling. This approach prevented output from dropping between 1978 and 1983 but only aggravated the deep-seated imbalance, preparing the way for a new crisis in 1983-1985. The underlying causes of this near-sighted approach are analyzed and the implications for a deeper understanding of Soviet decision-making spelled out. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 721.     

Abe Isoo and Kawakami Hajime in Interwar Japan — Economic Reform or Revolution?

This article explores the views of two eminent professors of economics, Abe Isoo (1865-1949) and Kawakami Hajime (1879-1946), regarding their socialist economic theories for easing poverty in Japan during the interwar years (1918-1939). Prior to this period, Abe believed the cure to capitalism’s ills lay in a combination of socialist economic reforms (sangyô demokurashii) and individual spiritual refinement. Kawakami, at that time a bourgeois economist, prioritised the spiritual revolution of the rich over any socialist-type economic reform. Thus, although convinced of the need for a different approach to eradicating poverty, they nevertheless agreed in the need for gradual change rather than radical reform (Gavin East Asia An International Quarterly 24:1, 30). The year 1928 marked a significant turning point both for Japanese social movements and in the lives of Abe and Kawakami. That year heralded Japan’s first national election under the new Universal Male Suffrage Law, and saw the police exercise their extended authority as they undertook a nationwide round-up of students and intellectuals suspected of left-wing tendencies (the March 15 Incident). Also in that year, Abe and Kawakami resigned from academic posts to dedicate themselves to alleviating the privations of the working class. Abe, by then well known as the father of Japanese socialism and as a Christian pacifist, became a symbolic figure for Japan’s working class parties, although he later came to support the government during WWII. Kawakami, who was forced to resign from his post during the round-up, “washed his hands of bourgeois economics”, became a prominent spokesman for Marxism in Japan ([28], xi, pp. 76, 169). This article will reveal that both Abe and Kawakami’s social and economic theories changed during the interwar period, so that Abe came to see imperial sovereignty as crucial to socialist economic reform, while Kawakami came to see it as a minion of the capitalists and advocated institutional and political revolution.     

The Dead Hand of the Treasury: The Economic and Social Development of the Trucial States, 1948–60

This paper addresses an aspect of British policy in the Trucial States that has received scant scholarly attention. It examines British attempts to promote economic and social development in the Trucial States, and places this policy within the context of British attitudes towards the economic development of the colonial empire. During the 1950s Britain's interest in the Arabian Peninsula expanded, in notable contrast with the rest of the Middle East. One aspect of this expanded role was British efforts to improve the economic and social conditions prior to the discovery of oil in Abu Dhabi in 1958. British officials on the ground were concerned to improve the lot of the population of these impoverished shaikhdoms for a combination of political and strategic and ethical reasons. This article shows that attempts to introduce a modicum of economic and social development in the Trucial States were hindered by the Treasury's refusal to provide adequate funds, and because of inherent problems in finding suitable development projects. Nonetheless, the plans put in place during the 1950s did provide the foundations for subsequent development programmes, which, in turn, drastically expanded as a result of oil wealth.     

The 1967 Arab–Israeli war: Soviet policy by other means?

This paper considers two aspects of historiography about the 1967 Arab–Israeli war – American and Soviet foreign policy in the region – to better appreciate the Soviet role in the outbreak of hostilities, as well as how the war concretized the USA–Israel ‘special relationship’ and weakened American–Arab relations. Relying especially on research from the Lyndon Johnson Presidential Library and Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS), this paper argues that Soviet officials had little interest in pursuing measures to prevent war during the prewar crisis because the situation promised to undermine American interests in the region.     

The Greening of the Brass: Taiwan's Civil–Military Relations since 2000 1

Abstract

Since the Democratic Progressive Party's stunning victory in the 2000 presidential election, Chen Shui-bian has accelerated the process of creating an officer corps without strong party inclination toward the KMT. What is the impact of Taiwan's democratization on its civil–military relations? What is the prospect of transitioning from a party-army to a “national army”? Will the DPP's zealous advocacy for Taiwan's independence be incompatible with the military's long-held belief in “China-centered” nationalism, straining relations between the military and the new administration? The analyses, implications, and conclusions of this study will shed light on the general role of the military in Taiwan's democratic transition and consolidation.     

A Precarious Path: The Evolution of Civil–Military Relations in the Philippines

Abstract

In the Philippines, the armed forces have played a major role in the country's authoritarian past. Yet despite the advent of democracy, vestiges of authoritarianism have continued to linger. This article analyzes the successes and failures in the efforts of Philippine civilians to gain authority over their military in five areas of political decision making, with the objective of achieving consolidated democratic rule. The article argues that in the Philippines, civilians have made genuine progress in curtailing the influence of military in certain areas, while in others, the armed forces continue to challenge civilian prerogatives. The article concludes that the ability of the Philippine military to continue acting in breach of civilian supremacy in certain areas reflects an impediment to democratically elected authorities' power to govern effectively.     

Reform and resistance to royal authority in fourteenth‐century France: The leagues of 1314–1315∗

Summary

Among the various assemblies of the Old Regime, the Cortes of Aragon came to be celebrated during the sixteenth century as bulwarks of regional freedoms facing inroads from Spanish Habsburg authoritarianism. Over recent decades, modern historiography has made notable advances in their study. Nonetheless, recent revisionist perspectives on early‐modern parliaments invite new approaches to the Aragonese Cortes. That revisionism has, in turn, also been viewed from a critical standpoint. The aim of this article is to provide a synthesis of the functions of the Cortes; to identify the issues under discussion today; and then to propose a new, more balanced view of their evolution, especially after the dramatic revolt against Philip II in 1591. Events in Aragon will also be considered in the light of recent reinterpretations of the parliamentary history of the neighbouring kingdom of Castile.     

Are Sri Lanka's Relations with China Deepening? An Analysis of Economic,Military, and Diplomatic Data

Abstract

During the past few years, Sri Lanka appears to have forged closer relations with China. Sri Lanka welcomed Chinese investment in building a port in Hambantota, arms from China for use in its civil war, and “dialogue partner” status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Such high-profile moves have unnerved analysts fearing the rise of Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region. A first-time, systematic analysis of the trends in Sri Lanka's economic, military, and diplomatic relations with China reveals that ties have indeed been strengthening. However, Sri Lanka is neither bandwagoning with nor balancing China, as structural realism predicts. More attention should be devoted to explaining the security thinking of small states that are not following such predictions in response to the emergence of a regional hegemon.     

Soviet Transport Trends, 1950–1990

This paper examines links between the Soviet transport sector and other sectors of the economy. In the 1970s, the transport sector was perceived as a bottleneck. As growth slowed in the late 70s, howevar, the transport sector was able to meet the economy's demands. At present, the transportation of oil and gas is placing an increasing burden on the transport sector, but pipelines can absorb the demands, freeing up rail transport capacity for other commodities. The willingness of Soviet officials to make the appropriate administrative reforms, apply new technologies and increase investment in this sector will determine transport's ability to meet future demands. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 731.     

The Super Confederacy: The Military in Fiji’s Politics

Abstract

The military has dominated Fijian politics for more than two and a half decades. After independence Fijian democracy was built on the façade of chiefly elite rule, the legacy of a colonial past. Since the passing of the Sukuna/Mara era, the patron–client relationship between the ruling elite and the military elite has been inverted. The military has since redefined national politics, with Maj. Gen. Rabuka then Rear Admiral Bainimarama becoming prime ministers, Fijian style, after leading successful coups. In the 2014 elections 10 military officers were elected to parliament under a newly decreed constitution. This paper analyses how the military elite once subservient to civilian rule has expanded its role as the major actor in Fiji’s politics.     

Shen Jiaben and the Late Qing Legal Reform (1901–1911)

Shen Jiaben, the late Qing scholar-bureaucrat, was made into a hero by the times during the Xin Zheng period which was a reaction to the failed 103-Days Reform in 1898 characterized by utopianism. Shen’s experience within the bureaucracy and his pragmatic approach in reforms were needed by the Qing rulers at that time. Shen was gradually forgotten after the collapse of the Qing dynasty and the repeated failures of the Chinese attempts to achieve constitutionalism. He was re-discovered in the last two decades among mainland China scholars, because his piece by piece approach in reforming the legal system without grand theories happened to be in agreement with the atmosphere among Chinese scholars, who after the failure of the 1989 Tiananmen Event, had gradually developed a consensus to reform China’s political system piece by piece, not through grand theories.     

‘Condemned forever to becoming and never to being’? The Weise Commission and German Military Isomorphism

Despite several post-Cold War reforms which have promised far-reaching change, the Bundeswehr faces a set of deficits in force structures, capabilities, doctrines and military adaptation, which leave it in danger of slipping permanently behind its European partners. The study examines the extent to which reforms proposed by the Commission on Structural Reform of the Bundeswehr will remedy these deficiencies. It finds that the proposals of the Commission include several important measures which will accelerate German convergence with the reforms of its European partners. However, the Commission fails to address several fundamental problems which impair the Bundeswehr's capacity to adapt to ongoing operations. The article critically engages with the existing theoretical literature on German defence policy and highlights the utility of neoclassical realism in explaining the process and outcome of German defence reform. The study also points to the urgent requirement for further comparative scholarship on post-Cold War European military adaptation and civil–military relations in defence planning.