Restructuring the Mechanism of Foreign Economic Relations in the USSR

An up-to-date paper by the Deputy Chairman of the State Commission on Foreign Economic Relations, USSR Council of Ministers, details recent economic reforms in the foreign trade sector of the USSR. Particular emphasis is placed on direct business relations between Soviet enterprises and their foreign counterparts, and on joint ventures with CMEA partners as well as firms in Western and developing countries. Anticipated changes in the role exports and imports are to play in the Soviet economy are also discussed. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 420.     

Soviet Foreign Trade in Foodstuffs

Analysis of import dependence or of shares of imported food in consumption when measured in value terms is severely handicapped by the fact that Soviet foreign trade statistics are reported in world market values which differ from domestic prices and by the nonequilibrium nature of the latter. This study offers an alternative method of relating imports to consumption based on calorie measures. Having recomputed exports and imports in calories, the study shows that between 1970 and 1981 the USSR changed from a position of net exporter of food to a high dependence with about 22% of total domestic consumption provided by imports. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 421, 713.     

Soviet Union and the Third World: The Economic Dimension

This paper surveys some of the outstanding issues and changes in the economic dimension of Soviet involvement in the non-communist Third World over the last 30 years. It attempts to identify and integrate salient features of current knowledge about Soviet economic policy toward the less developed countries. After a survey of the evolution of Soviet arms transfers and economic aid and trade relations, the paper concludes with some reflections on the effectiveness of Soviet policy and prospects for future change. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 420.     

Trading in Dordoi and Lilo bazaars: frontiers of formality,entrepreneurship and globalization

ABSTRACT

Cross-border trade is central to the socio-economic structure of the former Soviet republics and their integration in the world economy. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, bazaars have functioned as nodes that enable multi-directional, cross-border trade. While there have been studies on the bazaar trade in the Soviet successor states, few have used quantitative methods. Drawing from 600 structured interviews with traders in Dordoi (Bishkek) and Lilo (Tbilisi), the data from Dordoi highlight the relationship between informality and entrepreneurship, unlike Lilo, where there are clearer markers of formality, but where bazaar trade also seems to be less profitable. The data from the 600 interviews illustrate that Dordoi functions as a globalized trading hub, its transnational linkages forged by the bazaar traders and the buyers themselves. By contrast, trade in Lilo is more localized. Hence, ‘globalization from below’ presents itself differently across the post-Soviet space.     

The Soviet Union and the GATT: A Framework for Western Policy

An American economist, editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics, questions the desirability of Soviet membership in the GATT. Viewed from the framework of the theory of clubs, the Soviet Union is not a desirable member. This is partly because it does not seek the same level of liberalization of world trade as do other members and partly because it is not able to contribute effectively to the liberalization of the international trading system. A critical evaluation of an opposing view leads to conclusions that Soviet membership in the GATT would be costly to members and yield few tangible benefits. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 420.     

The Soviet Union and the International Trade Regime: A Reply

An international economist and United Nations executive replies to a critique of his paper devoted to the anticipated Soviet participation in the GATT. The author's rebuttal is focused on his opponent's perception of the GATT as an exclusive club and the suggestion that Soviet membership would be costly to the West. Several new arguments are marshaled to substantiate the initial premise that planned economies attempting to reform should be incorporated in the international trade regime. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 420.     

Soviet Economy: A Welcome Addition to an Important Field of Study

The results of the inaugural meeting of a panel on the Soviet economy, convened by the editors of Soviet Economy, are summarized. The panel noted that 1985 economic performance had been fairly good by recent Soviet standards, although the external trade balance had deteriorated sharply. Turning to the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (FYPXII) and the annual plan for 1986, the panel noted the clearly taut nature of both plans, and the apparent inconsistencies between them. The consensus was that the FYPXII targets would be very difficult to achieve, although outsiders may find it hard to judge due to the inherent ambiguities in measuring quality changes, and the potential for significant hidden inflation in growth statistics. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124).     

The target strikes back: explaining countersanctions and Russia’s strategy of differentiated retaliation

This article analyzes Russia’s retaliatory food embargo, explaining why the Russian government banned some imports from the West but refrained from banning a range of equally plausible others. I argue that Moscow was following a strategy of differentiated retaliation when selecting which imports to embargo. The countersanctions were not designed to mete out equal punishment on all members of the sanctioning coalition. Rather, Russia purposefully crafted the policy to inflict greater economic damage on some states than others. Utilizing an original data-set on all agricultural and food products that Russia imports, I demonstrate that, ceteris paribus, imports of sizeable commercial value to countries the Kremlin has long viewed as the mainstays of anti-Russian policies were far more likely to have been banned. In contrast, the evidence shows that Moscow stayed its hand in dealing with Europe’s major powers. This analysis both illuminates the policy objectives being pursued by a leading actor in world politics, as well as lays the groundwork for theoretically understanding the geostrategic, political, and economic drivers of countersanctions.     

Computing in the USSR: Recent Progress and Policies

The paper evaluates a broad spectrum of Soviet computing capabilities ranging from the development, production and service sectors to applications in enterprise management, national security, education, and consumer products. Comparisons between Western and Soviet information technologies, summarized in tabular form, reveal gaps in Soviet computing and communications resulting from both technical limitations and administrative/political constraints in the economy. Programs designed to narrow these gaps are described in a final section. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 635.     

The Impact of External Factors on Regime Transition: Lessons from the Russian Regions

While many studies have examined the external dimensions of democratization, the role of external anti-democratic factors remains unaddressed. Using an original dataset to analyze the presence and impact of external anti-democratic factors, this article aims to untangle the international dimensions of regime transition by singling out foreign trade. International post-Soviet trade links' impact on subnational political regimes in Russia is analyzed. Trade links between post-Soviet states and their regions are longstanding, dating back to the Soviet or even the tsarist period. The authors hypothesize that this variable was an important factor in regime transition in Russia's regions. The findings have wider implications for area studies and theoretical studies of democratization and regime transition.     

The Japan-Soviet far east trade relationship: A case of the cautious buyer and the overconfident seller

Given Japan’s resource scarcity, the eastern Soviet Union’s wealth of natural resources and dire need for large infusions of investment capital and technology, and the close distance between the two, one would believe that trade between the two countries would be quite sizable. However, the converse is the case, with each country providing no more than 2 percent of the other’s foreign trade. To explain this phenomenon, it is necessary to explore the intrinsic and self-imposed obstacles to expanded Japanese-USSR trade. It turns out that both countries do not pursue trade for mutual advantage but rather seek an entirely different set of ulterior zero-sum motives. The article discusses what would appear to be a natural “fit” between the two countries’ needs and abilities, explores the extensive joint Siberian development projects of the 1960s and 1970s to explain the undesired side effects of Japanese-Soviet trade, details Japanese and Soviet business, government, and economist arguments for and against expanded economic relations, explains the maldevelopment of a resource-extractive versus commodity-producing eastern USSR as a product of climate, labor shortages, investment policies, and a Stalinist-planned system, outlines Japanese desires to accrue political advantages from its trade with the Soviet Union, and predicts the inability of Gorbachev’s economic reforms to truly expand Japanese-Soviet trade at a low cost to its larger geopolitical concerns. Although continuing private Japanese efforts are being made to work out joint venture deals with the USSR (thus belying the notion of a completely consensus-unified “Japan, Inc.”), they are still anomalies. Ultimately, if expanded trade ties are to occur (and indeed it is this article’s contention that they must for the USSR to survive as a superpower), then they must be made on Japan’s terms.     

Between Border and Bazaar: Central Asia’s Informal Economy

ABSTRACT

The disintegration of the Soviet Union spurred a transnational trade in consumer goods. Bazaars, which proliferated across the former Soviet Union, including in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan that is the focus of this article, became nodes in this informal trade. This article makes three arguments: (i) Soviet successor states capitalised on the new informal economy which provided employment to millions when economies were in decline. Conversely, ongoing developments, particularly in Kazakhstan, seek to modernise the bazaars that emerged after the Soviet Union. (ii) The movement of people and goods – between border and bazaar, and in case of re-exports, on to another border – are illustrative of a multi-dimensional informal economy evidenced in rent extraction, regulation of bazaars, and in trader networks. (iii) The bazaar-centred economy relies on checkpoint politics that establish border regimes, enabling mobility.     

Soviet studies on workers’ movements in the Middle East

Rabochiy klass Afriki (The working class of Africa), edited by I. P. Yastrebova, Moscow, Africa Institute of the Soviet Academy of Sciences, Nauka Press: 1966.

K. A. Guseynov's Rabochiy klass i Profsoyuzi Afriki {The working class and the trade unions of Africa), Moscow, Profizdat: 1969.

B. A. Shabayev's Rabochiy klass strait Magriba (The working class of the Maghrib lands), Moscow, Asia Institute¹ of the Soviet Academy of Sciences, Nauka Press: 1968.

Willard A. Beling's important Modernization and African Labor: a Tunisian Case Study, N.Y., Praeger: 1965).

F. M. Atsamba and L. A. Fridman and titled Rabochiy klass stran Azii i Afriki (The working class in the countries of Asia and Africa), Moscow, Moscow University Press: 1966.

F. M. Atsamba's ‘The workers’ movement in Egypt on the eve of the Second World War, 1929–1939’ (pp. 266–94)

Selskohozyaystvenniye rabochiye v stranah Azii i Afriki (The agricultural workers in the countries of Asia and Africa), edited by G. G. Kotovskiy and I. A. Svanidze, Moscow, Oriental Institute and Africa Institute of the Soviet Academy of Sciences, Nauka Press: 1969.

Rabocheye dvizheniye v Azerbayzhane v godi novogo revolyutsiyonogo podyoma, 1910–1914 (The workers’ movement in Azerbaijan during the revolutionary progress, 1910–1914), Baku, Soviet Azerbaijan Academy of Sciences: 1967.

A. I. Shamide, Rabocheye i profsoyuznoye dvizheniye v Irane posle vtoroy mirovoy voyni, 1946–1953 (The workers’ and trade‐union movement in Iran after the Second World War, 1946–1953), Baku, Soviet Azerbaijan Academy of Sciences: 1965

Z. Z. Abdullayev, Formirovaniye rabochego klassa Irana (The formation of Iran's workers’ class), Baku, Soviet Azerbaijan Academy of Sciences: 1968.

Sh. M. Badi, Rabochiy klass Irana (Iran's workers’ class), Moscow, the Asia Institute of the Soviet Academy of Sciences, Nauka Press: 1965, is a smaller book (130 pages).

M. S. Ivanov, Rabochiy klass sowemennogo Irana (The workers’ class of contemporary Iran), Moscow, Ethnography Institute of the Soviet Academy of Sciences, Nauka Press: 1969.     

Economic and Strategic Position Of the Soviet Far East

The role of the Soviet Far East in the Soviet regional system is conditioned by its remoteness from the country's commanding center, its harsh physical environment, and strategic importance. The region is weakly integrated into the mainstream of the Soviet economy. At the same time, its most powerful economic links are with the distant metropolis—a strongly dependent, parasitic relationship made more dominant by the cost of the massive military build-up. Huge Soviet efforts to accelerate the growth of the Far East are proving largely unsuccessful, despite the construction of the BAM. Economic priorities are shifting to West Siberia, while Far Eastern resource projects are proving increasingly unattractive to Japan. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 731.     

The resumption of Sino–Central Asian trade,c. 1983–94: confidence building and reform along a Cold War fault line

The resumption of trade across the Sino–Central Asian border in 1983 accompanied a gradual thaw in relations between China and the Soviet Union. This paper argues that: (1) Economic liberalization in China (alongside the Soviet Union) created a climate encouraging cross-border exchange. (2) Starting in 1983, improving relations between China and the Soviet Union permitted cross-border exchange in Central Asia; over the subsequent decade, trade volume served as a marker of bilateral relations. (3) Beginning in 1990, efforts by the Chinese leadership to accelerate reform in North-West China, coupled with the independence of Central Asian republics, led to a rapid increase in trade. Hence, the resumption of Sino–Central Asian trade was not grounded in meta-geographical projections – Silk Road, New Silk Road, Silk Road Economic Belt, Eurasian Continental Bridge – but determined by political and economic transitions in the two countries, accompanied by normalizing bilateral relations.     

Soviet Electric Power After Chernobyl': Economic Consequences and Options

A review of the role of nuclear power in Soviet electricity production and of economic and design factors that may have contributed to the accident at the Chernobyl' Atomic Power Station sets the stage for analysis of its economic and other impacts on the USSR and Eastern Europe. The paper outlines methods for estimating direct costs stemming from lost generating capacity, agricultural output, and plant infrastructure; clean-up and relocation; and medical care. Longer-term costs in the form of environmental and public health problems, reexamination of energy development strategies, and effects on international trade will be greater but more difficult to determine. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 723.     

Soviet Assessments of Economic Reforms in Other Socialist Countries

A prominent American economist pieces together and analyzes Soviet assessments of economic reforms in other socialist countries. Included in the author's analysis are studies of Soviet specialists investigating changes in the administrative organization of the state sector, planning, pricing, banking, labor, agriculture, nonstate activity, and foreign economic relations, within the framework of a socialist planned economy. Also covered are more recent Soviet studies focusing on privatization, marketization, and government regulation in the transition to a capitalist market economy—work that influenced decisions about economic reforms in the Soviet Union. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: P21, B20.     

Showtime for Southeast Asia: An economic and political crossroads

In the ASEAN region, booming exports and imports, and rapidly rising per capita incomes, have brought new challenges to trade policy. ASEAN is promoting its own “free trade area”; the United States backs the much wider and all-inclusive APEC format; and Malaysia urges a “caucus” restricted ethnically and racially to East Asians. The result is a genuine trade debate, along lines familiar in the already-industrialized nations. If ASEAN follows genuine openness there are considerable opportunities, but if it takes the timeworn paths of protectionism, restrictions on investment, and excessive sensitivity to fears of “foreign manipulation,” the future is liable to be less bright.     

日本货物进出口贸易协调性的动态分析及启示

日本货物出口与进口之间是否存在协同均衡增长的动态发展关系,是否存在维持进出口内在均衡的机制,文章基于2008年—2012年的月度数据进行了实证分析。协整检验结果表明,日本货物出口与进口存在长期稳定的协整关系。从误差修正模型看,短期内日本货物出口与进口之间存在动态调整机制。根据格兰杰因果关系检验,日本货物出口与日本货物进口存在单向和双向因果关系。脉冲响应函数分析表明,日本货物出口的某一冲击会给日本货物进口增长带来同向冲击。实证结果表明在垂直专业化分工背景下,尽管自动调节机制可以使日本货物进出口向长期均衡调整,但是由于全球需求放缓、向海外转移生产基地、日元持续升值和东日本大地震等不确定因素的综合影响,日本沦为经常项目逆差国的可能性正在加大。     

Russia’s image of China and Russian-Chinese relations

Views of China in today's Russia are characterized by great diversity. There are those who stand for strengthening ties with China to counterbalance the West; those who prefer Russia balancing between various power centers; and those who fear China as a growing geopolitical rival with a potential of expanding at the expense of Russian territory. Russia's government for the foreseeable future can be expected to advocate closer ties with China. However, the real question now is not whether a future Russian leadership will advocate a more hostile or more friendly course toward China, but if it will be able to support its wishes (whatever they may be) with the real resources necessary to pursue any consistent policy. Alexander Lukin received his first degree from the Moscow State Institute of Foreign Relations and a doctorate from Oxford University. He worked at the Soviet Foreign Ministry, Soviet Embassy to the PRC, and the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Soviet Academy of Sciences. From 1990 to 1993 he was an elected deputy of the Moscow City Soviet (Council), where he chaired the Sub-Committee for Inter-Regional Relations. He is the author of Russian Democrats: A Study in Political Culture (to be published by Oxford University Press in 1999) and numerous articles on Russian and Chinese politics and Russian-Chinese relations which have been published in Russia, the PRC, the U.S., the UK, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. In 1997/1998 he was a visiting research fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. He is currently a research fellow at the Center for International Studies of the Moscow Institute of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Foreign Ministry (MGIMO-University) and an Associate in Research at the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University.