俄罗斯国防工业体转型路径及效用分析

俄罗斯国防工业体从前苏联时期的斯大林模式向市场导向的转型,经历了漫长而艰辛的历程.尤其是20世纪90年代的军转民实践,充满了曲折和困难,短期内削弱了其经济实力.但俄罗斯也逐渐明确了国防工业体进一步转型的方向,为推动其经济结构的进一步调整以及经济的持续发展奠定了基础.本文着重从理论上分析俄罗斯国防工业体转型的路径,并深入探讨其对经济发展的巨大影响.     

The Soviet Military–Industrial Complex and Economic Reform

The Soviet military and civilian economies are so closely integrated that economic reform cannot be treated as a purely civilian issue. Faltering economic growth coming at the same time as new challenges in the arms race has therefore focused the military's attention on how to improve the performance of the civilian economy. The Soviet military press has begun to portray current reform initiatives in a positive light, and the military economy has even been the model for some of these initiatives. Nonetheless, the military has not publicly supported any reforms involving marketization or private enterprise. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 114, 124.     

Chinese debate on military strategy: Trends & portents

The 1980s have witnessed an intense debate by China’s strategic community over a military strategy in response to what Beijing sees as a shifting, but still complex and potentially troublesome, security environment. though the debate is yet to conclude, the broad contours of the new doctrine have been sketched out. Acknowledging that both superpowers are increasingly constrained by economic, political, and military factors in their contest for supremacy, Chinese analysts continue to warn against lowering armed guard at a time when the focus of the arms race is shifting to new frontiers: outer space and oceans. They would like China to strengthen its national defense rather than rely an arms control to mitigate threats to its security. China is continuing its defense modernization program, which will reshape its force structure and enhance its conventional and nuclear capabilities. and the author ofChinese National Security and Nuclear Arms Control [M. E. Sharpe, forthcoming].     

Civilians and the Military in Latin America: The Absence of Incentives

This article argues that civil‐military relations should be conceptualized not only in terms of democratic civilian control but also for effectiveness in implementing a spectrum of roles and missions. It also argues that achieving effectiveness requires institutional development as a necessary but not sufficient condition. Currently in Latin America, the focus in civil‐military relations remains exclusively on civilian control. While there is a growing awareness of the need for analysis beyond asserting control over the armed forces, so far nobody has proposed or adopted a broader analytical framework. This article proposes such a framework, and employs it to analyze differences among four major South American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. The explanation for the differences identified by use of the framework is found in the incentives of civilian elites in Chile and Colombia, who have recognized serious threats to national security and defense.     

Indian Defense Policy at a Crossroads

In November 2008, the financial capital of India, Mumbai, was struck by terrorists who the Indian (as well as the American and the British) intelligence later confirmed had received extensive training from the Pakistan-based group, Lashkar-e-Taiba, or Army of the Pure. Given the sophistication of planning and execution involved, it soon became apparent that this was a commando-style operation that possibly had the involvement of a state actor. As physical evidence mounted in terms of satellite phone calls, equipments, and boats used for the attack, Pakistan's hand was seen as smeared all over the operation. Though India conceded that probably the new civilian administration of Asif Ali Zardari was not behind the attacks, the army and the ISI were seen as the main culprit (Chengappa 2008).

The public outcry after the Mumbai attacks was strong enough for the Indian government to consider using the military option vis-à-vis Pakistan. But it soon turned out that India no longer had the capability of imposing quick and effective retribution on Pakistan and that it no longer enjoyed the kind of conventional superiority vis-à-vis its regional adversary that it had enjoyed for the past five decades (Gupta 2009). This was a surprising conclusion for a nation that the international community regarded as a major global economic and military power, pursuing a defense modernization programme geared towards making arms purchases of more than US$35 billion over the next few years. Yet in many ways, it underlined fundamental weaknesses in Indian defense policy, especially its ad hoc attempts towards arms procurement and defense modernization. This article examines the trends in defense spending and arms procurement in India since the early 1990s, a period that has seen India rising in the global inter-state hierarchy. It argues that a lack of strategic orientation in Indian defense planning will make it difficult for India to effectively use its resources and this will circumscribe India's rise as a global military power. First an overview of trends in Indian defense spending is presented followed by a discussion of the drivers of the Indian defense modernization program. Subsequently, India's ties with its major defense partners—Russia, Israel, and the West—are examined. Finally, the constraints that will continue to constrain India's ability to emerge as a major global military power are examined.     

Editor's Note: Special Feature – China,India, and the Future of Great-Power Politics

Abstract

This review essay is based upon Shuja Nawaz' Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army, and the Wars Within and Ayesha Siddiqa's Military Inc.: Inside Pakistan's Military Economy. Based upon these two author's insightful volumes, this essay explores the roles of both military and civilian actors and institutions in the undermining of Pakistan's constitutional rule of law. While conventional wisdom places the onus disproportionately upon the military's penchant for interventionism, this review essay contends that the army has intervened only with the active assistance of civilian institutions which are subsequently further eroded with every military takeover. Thus any long-term solution to democratize Pakistan must focus both upon the army's presumed “right” and “obligation” to intervene in Pakistan's political system while simultaneously strengthening and professionalizing those civilian institutions needed for providing good governance with accountability.     

Like father like son: Libyan civil–military relations before and after 2011

This article finds that in contrast to other cases of civil–military relations in the region, Libya does not fit a regular praetorian stereotype; rather, the interaction between its armed forces and their civilian counterparts has been paternalistic in nature. As a result, the Libyan military was the subject of destructive civilian interference throughout its modern history, and therefore incapable of delivering on its raison d’être, i.e., defence. This curious and ultimately negative interplay between civilian and military leaders in Libya draws attention to the generally understudied role of Arab civilians in the control of armed forces outside democratic structures – and highlights the state-fracturing consequences of this type of interaction.     

The Military: A Threat to Democracy?

The military is by its very nature a potential threat to democracy, but in well-established democracies civilian supremacy has generally been maintained, though there are dangers of excessive military influence. S. E. Finer's seminal 1962 study of civil-military relations distinguished between the modes and effectiveness of civilian control in mature, developed and low or minimal political cultures. These categories are distinguished in particular by varying degrees of political legitimacy. Finer's conclusion about the prospects for political stability and democracy in most developing countries was pessimistic. But Finer's conclusions can now be challenged, primarily because the nature of civil-military relations has changed. In mature political cultures like the USA, the threat from the military-industrial complex has receded. Japan, Germany or France — key examples in Finer's second category — have now become mature political cultures; and Russia (newly in this category) is not, despite its many problems, threatened by direct military intervention. Many countries previously classified within low political culture have moved into the second category, and despite some notable exceptions the military have become more cautious about taking responsibility for government.     

Causes of the Slowdown in Soviet Defense

This paper discusses the recent official U.S. intelligence estimates indicating a slowdown in the growth rates of Soviet defense spending and military procurement since 1976. The Central Intelligence Agency's explanation for the slowdown is examined. Questions are raised about two of the factors, economic constraints and technical difficulties, and the implications of the CIA's explanation for theories about the relationship of the defense sector to the rest of the economy are considered. The author offers as a possible alternative explanation of the slowdown a change in Soviet military investment priorities de-emphasizing strategic offensive weapons. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 114, 124.     

俄罗斯虚拟现实产业发展状况探究

自2016年“虚拟现实产业元年”以来,俄罗斯虚拟现实市场快速发展,形成了以国家与大型企业投资为主,政府部门牵头、高校与科研院所提供智力支持、国企与私营企业平行发展的格局,设备制造、软件研发、内容制作、行业服务等产业链主要环节都涌现了一些优秀企业。国家是虚拟现实产业发展的主要推手,国企和创业企业是实现技术突破的关键力量,企业客户是市场需求主力,消费端客户正逐步扩展。总体来看,与发达国家相比,俄罗斯虚拟现实产业呈现出一种起步较晚,但增速较猛的“后发状态”,发展形势较好。不过,当前还存在研发资金缺乏、产业链完整性欠缺、国家与市场间信息不对称等问题,并受到5G网络建设缓慢、军工技术转民用速度迟滞等多个因素制约。随着世界虚拟现实产业需求的高涨,俄罗斯虚拟现实产业也将快速增长。     

The coup d'état in Spain: from the anti-liberal movements to the democratic revolution, 1814–1874

SUMMARY

In this article Mikel Urquijo seeks to explain the evolution of the coup d'état as a feature of the political history of Spain in the nineteenth century. The repeated interventions based on the armed forces, with a greater or lesser contribution from the civilian politicians, are seen as the method by which some alternation in government between the political factions was made possible. The article traces the development from the purely military coup, or pronunciamiento of the early years, intended to exclude civilian politicians, to the mixed coups of the mid-century. In the absence of a truly democratic political system, or a developed national and civic consciousness, in a system where the ruling party could decide the outcome of elections by executive action, the coup was the accepted method of changing the regime. But the increasing participation of civilian politicians in the process culminated in the coup of 1868, which had some of the characteristics of a democratic revolution, and overthrew for a time the Bourbon monarchy. This represents a true civic-military coup d'état.     

The Super Confederacy: The Military in Fiji’s Politics

Abstract

The military has dominated Fijian politics for more than two and a half decades. After independence Fijian democracy was built on the façade of chiefly elite rule, the legacy of a colonial past. Since the passing of the Sukuna/Mara era, the patron–client relationship between the ruling elite and the military elite has been inverted. The military has since redefined national politics, with Maj. Gen. Rabuka then Rear Admiral Bainimarama becoming prime ministers, Fijian style, after leading successful coups. In the 2014 elections 10 military officers were elected to parliament under a newly decreed constitution. This paper analyses how the military elite once subservient to civilian rule has expanded its role as the major actor in Fiji’s politics.     

“In the Front Line”?: Internment and Citizenship Entitlements in the Second World War

This paper analyses the experiences of Australian civilian internees of the Japanese in the Second World War and the Australian government's responses to their desires for repatriation, compensation and rehabilitation. It argues that civilian internees stood in awkward relation to understandings about sacrifice in wartime and entitlements to compensation. The dominance of the citizen‐soldier in Australian narratives of war placed civilian internees in an ambiguous position. Civilian internees had not played a direct part in battle but did have direct contact with the military enemy. They had personally suffered privation at the hands of the enemy, but were not military personnel in service of their country. Civilian internees expose the tensions around citizenship and citizenship entitlement attendant upon the elevation of war service as the ultimate sacrifice for one's country.     

Army administration tensions over Algeria's Centres de regroupement, 1954–1962

Thirty years after the end of the Algerian War of Independence the bulk of the contemporary military documentation has been released, after classification, and is available at the military archives of the Service Historique de l'Armée de Terre at Vincennes. This study re‐examines the French army's pacification policy and its strategy of regrouping the rural population into resettlement centres and re‐evaluates the role of the Sections Administratives Spécialisées (SAS) in administering this resettled population. The speed and scale of regrouping is reconfirmed from army statistical data. The significant critical inspections carried out by the quasi‐civilian Inspection Générale des Regroupements de la Population (IGRP) led to army‐civilian conflict as did the efforts of SAS units to turn this damaging military operation into a more positive rural renovation programme. By the end of the war both the IGRP and the SAS gave ground to military evaluations of the situation and disillusionment crept in as the resettlement programme came to an end. The newly available archival documentation also serves to substantiate the accuracy of Michel Cornaton's pioneering mid‐1960s research on Algeria's centres de regroupement which was carried out in the face of the then prevailing military secrecy.     

Technology and Politics: Have the ICTs Turned into a Domain for Civil–Military Relations in Turkey?

The implications of technology have been widely acknowledged in international relations. Studies ranging from the causes of war and military effectiveness to terrorism and nuclear proliferation have explored how technology shapes international politics. However, the implications of technology in domestic politics have not been scrutinised much. This paper helps fill this vacuum through an analysis of Turkey’s civil–military relations. Although civilian control over the Turkish military has improved in the past decade, this process has not been smooth. With a focus on the recent court cases involving the military, the 2007 e-memorandum and the transfer of electronic military intelligence apparatus to the civilian authority, this paper demonstrates how technology has become an important domain for civil–military relations in Turkey.     

The securitization of cyberspace governance in Singapore

ABSTRACT

Drawing from securitization theory and Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA), this article examines how the Singaporean government has “securitized” cyberspace governance. It contributes value-add to the existing literature on securitization theory by evaluating the specific backgrounds and preexisting beliefs that securitizing actors bring with them to the securitization process. Taking the case of Singapore, this paper focuses on the military elites turned civilian politicans and policymakers that have been tasked with cyberspace governance. A discourse analysis shows how terminologies describing cyberspace as an “existential” issue and key personnel appointments with significant military backgrounds reflect the prevalance of military elites, terminologies, strategies that have become embedded within domestic cybersecurity governance structures. The use of military-style concepts such as “digital ranges” and “war games” in Singapore mirrors global financial industry trends where military-derived terminology has become widespread in preparing for cyber-attacks on critical information infrastructure. Two key focus areas of cyberspace governance are evaluated: online content regulation of Internet and social media networks, and legislation to protect critical information infrastructure. The paper concludes by discussing a range of concerns raised by the target “audience” of securitization processes, such as civil society and information infrastructure providers.     

Panel on Growth and Technology in Perestroyka

A part of the proceedings of the first joint Soviet Economy roundtable, focused on the pivotal role of modern technology in perestroyka, is presented in the form of questions and answers reflecting a lively debate between distinguished Soviet and American economists. Adaptation to new technologies is analyzed in light of uskoreniye, plan priorities, and a variety of factors influencing economic growth. Also debated are issues relating to enterprises and industries, particularly within the context of contrasts between the civilian and military economies. Specific issues such as the tradeoffs between centralization and autonomy are discussed in some detail. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 621.     

In the Shadow of Pacifism: Foreign Policy Choices of Germany and Japan in Afghanistan

This paper explores the policy choices of Germany and Japan for contributing to international security and stability in Afghanistan. Both countries have been closely involved with Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks 2001. It is argued that the policy choice of Japan with a low military element and high civilian element differs significantly from the German military centered approach. An analysis of the goals and motives behind the foreign policy choices reveals that in Germany the military involvement has been justified with humanitarian reasons, national self interests and the right to “unlimited” sovereignty. This logic has ultimately led to the acceptance of civilian casualties and participation into offensive counterinsurgency operations. It is suggested that elite driven discourses have determined foreign policy strategy. In the case of Japan the paper claims that the conservative LDP elite had been pushing for intensified military involvement which materialized in the dispatch of military vessels to the Indian Ocean and ground forces to Iraq. Similar to Germany these moves towards gaining international reputation were rooted in domestic politics.     

Argentine–Chilean Relations in the Shadow of the Debt Crisis

In the history of the relations between Argentina and Chile, the period between 1984 and 1989 is arguably the most interesting and the least studied. In Argentina, the civilian government of Alfonsín faced, on the other side of the Andes, the military regime of Pinochet. While the two countries were affected by the Debt Crisis and timidly cooperated on it, the two presidents never met. And if Chilean exiles in Argentina played a major role in the Chilean transition to democracy, Chilean rebels caused troubles in Argentina's civil–military relations. New sources have been uncovered and this article provides a broad reading of this complex period.     

A Precarious Path: The Evolution of Civil–Military Relations in the Philippines

Abstract

In the Philippines, the armed forces have played a major role in the country's authoritarian past. Yet despite the advent of democracy, vestiges of authoritarianism have continued to linger. This article analyzes the successes and failures in the efforts of Philippine civilians to gain authority over their military in five areas of political decision making, with the objective of achieving consolidated democratic rule. The article argues that in the Philippines, civilians have made genuine progress in curtailing the influence of military in certain areas, while in others, the armed forces continue to challenge civilian prerogatives. The article concludes that the ability of the Philippine military to continue acting in breach of civilian supremacy in certain areas reflects an impediment to democratically elected authorities' power to govern effectively.