The Soviet Union and the International Trade Regime: A Reply

An international economist and United Nations executive replies to a critique of his paper devoted to the anticipated Soviet participation in the GATT. The author's rebuttal is focused on his opponent's perception of the GATT as an exclusive club and the suggestion that Soviet membership would be costly to the West. Several new arguments are marshaled to substantiate the initial premise that planned economies attempting to reform should be incorporated in the international trade regime. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 420.     

An Empirical Analysis of Soviet Economic Relations with Developing Countries

Soviet trade with the developing countries is analyzed using formal statistical techniques. Soviet imports of primary products are found to grow more rapidly but to be no more stable than imports of these products by market economies. Evidence is found of Soviet price discrimination in trade in favor of LDC members of the CMEA and against LDCs with which it has bilateral clearing agreements (BCAs). BCAs are correlated with greater trade volumes, relatively diverse export structures and more stable LDC exports to the Soviet Union. No evidence exists that Soviet aid deliveries are linked systematically with later Soviet imports. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 421, 443     

The Transformation from Communism to Capitalism: How Far? How Fast?

A prominent American specialist on Soviet and East European economies argues that there are important gains to be obtained from rapid market liberalization and privatization in the transition from communism to capitalism. These gains depend on the responsiveness of firms to market signals. A review of the available evidence suggests that rapid privatization is an important factor promoting such responsiveness. The paper also refutes “evolutionary” criticisms of rapid transition policies on the basis of available evidence from East Europe, historical evidence, and the incompatibility between evolutionary approaches and the desire for democratic regimes in East Europe and the former USSR. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E61, H11, L33, P21.     

The politics of Japan’s rice trade

This article analyzes both the domestic and international political factors that affect Japan’s rice trade policy. Based on the analysis, this article suggests that although Japan will open its rice market soon, the rice trade liberalization is likely to proceed very slowly and will be accompanied by a temporary surge of nontariff barriers. Domestically, a national coalition of producers, distributors, nationalists, politicians, bureaucrats, environmentalists, and consumers will delay and distort any rice trade liberalization program. Internationally, the pressure to further reduce rice trade barriers will decline due to the controversy over agricultural trade liberalization in the GATT negotiation, the lack of significant political pressure by politicians and interest groups within the United States, and Japan’s record of trade liberalization, especially in agricultural trade. He is the author ofInstitutions and Global Competitiveness (Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1994).     

Satellite Communications in the USSR

Satellite communications, specifically TV distribution, constituted the first commercial application of space technology in the USSR. Soviet comsat systems have been costly and technologically unsophisticated. The capacity of these systems is low. Little has been achieved in exploiting the potential of communication satellites for other tasks important for operation of the economy, such as telephony, facsimile transmission, or data exchange, due in part to competition with the military. The USSR has rejected membership in the International Telecommunications Satellite organization in favor of its own Intersputnik system, but has been an active member of the international organization Inmarsat. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 620.     

Soviet Economy: A Welcome Addition to an Important Field of Study

The results of the inaugural meeting of a panel on the Soviet economy, convened by the editors of Soviet Economy, are summarized. The panel noted that 1985 economic performance had been fairly good by recent Soviet standards, although the external trade balance had deteriorated sharply. Turning to the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (FYPXII) and the annual plan for 1986, the panel noted the clearly taut nature of both plans, and the apparent inconsistencies between them. The consensus was that the FYPXII targets would be very difficult to achieve, although outsiders may find it hard to judge due to the inherent ambiguities in measuring quality changes, and the potential for significant hidden inflation in growth statistics. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124).     

Gorbachev's Economic Advisors

Based substantially on extensive interviews in Moscow from 1984 to date and current literature as well, the paper traces the recent activities and environment of Secretary Gorbachev's intimate advisors on Soviet economy. Academicians Abel Aganbegyan, Oleg Bogomolov, Tat'yana Zaslavskaya, and Corresponding Member Leonid Abalkin, are singled out as leading members of an informal “economic brain trust.” The roles played by selected institutes of the Academy of Sciences and by its other reform-oriented members (e.g., Nikolay Petrakov and Stanislav Shatalin) are presented in light of Gorbachev's disenchantment with policies advocated by Gosplan or other orthodox state and party organizations. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 054, 124.     

Trends in Mortality of the Soviet Population

Two prominent American demographers present an up-to-date study of trends and countertrends in mortality of the Soviet population; discussed are variations (by republic and over time) in life expectancy, infant mortality, and mortality in the working ages. Analyzing trends since 1959, the authors highlight problems relating to the quality and interpretation of pertinent statistical data of Soviet origin. Distinguishing real trends from pseudotrends, they evaluate mortality differences among regions and illustrate a more favorable long-term trend in mortality than suggested by official figures (nonetheless, because of error in official statistics, actual rates are generally higher). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 123, 841.     

Selected Recent Books on Soviet Energy

This compilation comprises a special bibliography of recent books on Soviet energy prepared and annotated by the editor of Soviet Geography. An initial section contains five books with sections on nuclear power of particular interest in connection with the Chernobyl' accident. A second section of four entries is devoted to general issues of energy policy, consumption and demand, conservation, and impacts of energy development on Soviet foreign policy and world markets. The final section includes ten books addressing problems of fossil fuel development in the USSR, and efforts to overcome organizational and logistical obstacles to West Siberian oil and gas development in particular. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 723.     

Panel on Growth and Technology in Perestroyka

A part of the proceedings of the first joint Soviet Economy roundtable, focused on the pivotal role of modern technology in perestroyka, is presented in the form of questions and answers reflecting a lively debate between distinguished Soviet and American economists. Adaptation to new technologies is analyzed in light of uskoreniye, plan priorities, and a variety of factors influencing economic growth. Also debated are issues relating to enterprises and industries, particularly within the context of contrasts between the civilian and military economies. Specific issues such as the tradeoffs between centralization and autonomy are discussed in some detail. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 621.     

'Voprosy Istorii’ and ‘middle eastern studies’

As readers of Middle Eastern Studies know, this Journal has attempted, beginning with its first issue, to give some account of the characteristics and achievements of Soviet Middle Eastern scholarship. In pursuance of the same objective, we give below the translation of an article by L. P. Milogradova which appeared in Voprosy Istorii for July 1965. We reproduce it in the belief that it constitutes a noteworthy and a curious document, and we leave readers to appreciate for themselves the distance which seems to separate Geoffrey Wheeler's original article from the comment which it has drawn.     

The Controversy Over Western Measures of Soviet Defense Expenditures

A retired CIA analyst of the Soviet economy presents a comprehensive and in-depth comparison of diverse Western estimates of the size and rate of growth of Soviet military expenditures from the mid-1950s through 1990. Analyzing the explicit criteria and implicit assumptions that underlay the compilation of these estimates, the author evaluates the relative veracity of divergent claims. The article then examines alternative claims about the impact of Gorbachev and giasnost' on our understanding of Soviet defense expenditures, and explores the extent to which Soviet leaders themselves knew how much they were spending in this area. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: P27, P24, P52.     

Monopoly and Transition to the Market

An American economist describes recent Soviet thinking on monopoly and traces its impact on the reform process up until 1991. After an overview of industrial concentration in the Soviet economy, the study proceeds to examine the content of Gorbachev's antimonopoly policy, focusing on policy toward dominant firms, mergers, and entry of firms. Drawing on this background and antitrust experience in Western countries, it concludes by analyzing the role of antitrust policy and import competition in the transition to the market. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: P20, L40.     

Soviet Union and the Third World: The Economic Dimension

This paper surveys some of the outstanding issues and changes in the economic dimension of Soviet involvement in the non-communist Third World over the last 30 years. It attempts to identify and integrate salient features of current knowledge about Soviet economic policy toward the less developed countries. After a survey of the evolution of Soviet arms transfers and economic aid and trade relations, the paper concludes with some reflections on the effectiveness of Soviet policy and prospects for future change. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 420.     

The Energy System and Economic Imbalances in the USSR

This article examines the severe structural and geograpic imbalances imposed on the Soviet economy by the demands and priorities of the energy complex; it also deals with imbalances manifest within the energy system itself. The feasibilities of policy change and prospect for success in energy conservation under Gorbachev are briefly assessed. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 723.     

Computing in the USSR: Recent Progress and Policies

The paper evaluates a broad spectrum of Soviet computing capabilities ranging from the development, production and service sectors to applications in enterprise management, national security, education, and consumer products. Comparisons between Western and Soviet information technologies, summarized in tabular form, reveal gaps in Soviet computing and communications resulting from both technical limitations and administrative/political constraints in the economy. Programs designed to narrow these gaps are described in a final section. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 635.     

Agricultural trade liberalization and the APEC process

The liberalization of agricultural trade in the Asia-Pacific region is important to the relatively efficient, low-cost exporters of farm commodities that are participating in the APEC process. While the Uruguay Round negotiations succeeded, for the first time, in extending the GATT trade liberalizing process to agriculture, the agreement was modest. Japan and Korea were allowed more time in which to prepare for the opening of their markets. But the farm-support policies of both are destroying their agricultures. The sooner they are changed, as those of Taiwan have been changed, the better it will be for the Japanese and Korean economies—for consumers, public finances, land prices, and the farmers who remain. Among his many writings on agricultural policy, he is author of the seminal wookWorld Agriculture in Disarray (Macmillan and St. Martin’s Press, 1973 and 1992).     

Between crises and sanctions: economic policy of the Russian Federation

This paper examines the root causes and features of crises of the Russian economy in 2014–2015 as a combination of structural and institutional problems, as well as cyclical and external shocks. The demand-side model of economic growth based on massive windfall revenue from oil and gas exports from the 2000s is now exhausted, and the country needs to shift to a new, supply-side model of growth. Mobilization and liberalization are discussed as two key economic policy alternatives. The analysis includes historical retrospection, which provides some important lessons from economic developments in the twentieth century: the Great Depression and the period of stagflation, the Soviet industrialization debate and perestroika, and the New Economic Policy in the USSR and the contemporary modernization of China. Special attention is paid to the mechanisms of economic growth acceleration in present-day Russia. They include macroeconomic stabilization, structural and institutional reforms based on liberalization of economic activity, and guarantees of property rights.     

Perestroyka and Soviet Statistics

The impact of perestroyka and glasnost' on the diversity and credibility of statistical coverage of the Soviet economy is discussed and analyzed. Included in the up-to-date review of such topics as reform desiderata, the institutional anatomy, key problem areas, criticism and control, and rapid advances in the release of previously unavailable statistics, is a detailed chronicle of pertinent developments since April, 1985. It is suggested that very little improvement has been observed in the quality and reliability of Soviet economic statistics, particularly in the area of prices and in the methodology of national income accounting. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 221, 225, 227.     

The Soviet Military–Industrial Complex and Economic Reform

The Soviet military and civilian economies are so closely integrated that economic reform cannot be treated as a purely civilian issue. Faltering economic growth coming at the same time as new challenges in the arms race has therefore focused the military's attention on how to improve the performance of the civilian economy. The Soviet military press has begun to portray current reform initiatives in a positive light, and the military economy has even been the model for some of these initiatives. Nonetheless, the military has not publicly supported any reforms involving marketization or private enterprise. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 114, 124.