The target strikes back: explaining countersanctions and Russia’s strategy of differentiated retaliation

This article analyzes Russia’s retaliatory food embargo, explaining why the Russian government banned some imports from the West but refrained from banning a range of equally plausible others. I argue that Moscow was following a strategy of differentiated retaliation when selecting which imports to embargo. The countersanctions were not designed to mete out equal punishment on all members of the sanctioning coalition. Rather, Russia purposefully crafted the policy to inflict greater economic damage on some states than others. Utilizing an original data-set on all agricultural and food products that Russia imports, I demonstrate that, ceteris paribus, imports of sizeable commercial value to countries the Kremlin has long viewed as the mainstays of anti-Russian policies were far more likely to have been banned. In contrast, the evidence shows that Moscow stayed its hand in dealing with Europe’s major powers. This analysis both illuminates the policy objectives being pursued by a leading actor in world politics, as well as lays the groundwork for theoretically understanding the geostrategic, political, and economic drivers of countersanctions.     

俄罗斯油气资源依附型经济论析

尽管1999年后俄罗斯的经济增长是内需而非投资主导的,但俄仍然是出口矿产资源、进口机器等工业制成品和食品的单一经济模式的发展中国家,其经济增长受出口大宗商品的国际市场价格和汇率变化的影响较大。无论从名义GDP还是从实际GDP来看,油气产业对俄罗斯经济增长的贡献率都很大。俄罗斯制造业的竞争力依然很低。因此,俄罗斯经济是一种油气资源依附型经济。俄罗斯政府对国内市场的天然气价格实施管制,在一定程度上减轻了"荷兰病"的进一步发展。来自油气产业的税收大幅增加使俄财政收入由赤字转为盈余。俄政府为此设立了稳定基金,在抑制通货膨胀的同时偿还了外债。从2008年起,俄在引入油气收支或油气外收支等概念基础上开始实施新的预算编制和执行制度。稳定基金因此转化为储备基金和下一代基金。俄经济的长远发展取决于如何减轻"荷兰病"的影响以及通货膨胀的压力。     

An Empirical Analysis of Soviet Economic Relations with Developing Countries

Soviet trade with the developing countries is analyzed using formal statistical techniques. Soviet imports of primary products are found to grow more rapidly but to be no more stable than imports of these products by market economies. Evidence is found of Soviet price discrimination in trade in favor of LDC members of the CMEA and against LDCs with which it has bilateral clearing agreements (BCAs). BCAs are correlated with greater trade volumes, relatively diverse export structures and more stable LDC exports to the Soviet Union. No evidence exists that Soviet aid deliveries are linked systematically with later Soviet imports. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 421, 443     

Why the Philippines Chooses to Import Rice

Embedded in the debate in the Philippines over food security and food sovereignty are three conventional reasons why the country is a longstanding rice importer: geography, exploitative international policy pressure predicated on the dictates of neoliberalism, and colonial history. This paper argues that these conventional reasons share two limitations. First, they attribute mono-causal reasons for perennial rice imports, either in the form of geography, exogenous power, or history. While these perspectives are not wrong, each on its own is inadequate. Multiple, contributing factors have and will continue to abound. Second, each of these arguments limits Filipinos' agency. Through a four-part argument, I show how Filipinos have had more say in the reasons for serial rice imports than these conventional accounts allow.     

Japan's Economy and the Global Financial Crisis

After the prolonged stagnation that followed the post-Bubble economic collapse at the end of the 1980s, from 2002 onwards the Japanese economy exhibited its longest period of economic expansion (albeit gradual) since World War Two. As this expansion came to an end and the economy was on the verge of the downward curve of the economic cycle, it was confronted with the current financial and economic crises, which originated in the USA. Nevertheless, Japanese financial institutions had invested little in sub-prime-related financial products, and with the lessons learned from the issue of bad loans in the 1990s, Japan's financial system enjoyed greater stability than that of any other major nation. However, in the period from the end of 2008 to early 2009, Japan experienced the sharpest economic decline of any major nation.

Yet, with the worst period having ended in the spring of 2009, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted in its October 2009 forecasts that Japan will experience real economic growth of 1.7% in 2010—a higher rate than the USA (with 1.5%) or the Euro Zone (with 0.3%). Despite forecasts of a protraction of excessive US imports as a direct result of excessive US consumption, Japan is being forced to reduce its degree of reliance on exports to the USA and to make major adjustments to its export structure—both in terms of the regions to which it exports and the products that it exports. Japan also faces the task of setting itself on the path to economic growth, using the twin drivers of foreign demand and domestic demand, and this will necessitate the cultivation of domestic demand. Now, the long-term strategy for Japan is to promote the expansion of regional demand in Asia, to couple this regional demand with domestic demand, and to latch on to Asia's economic dynamism.     

The Impact of WTO Accession on Russia's Agriculture

The article analyzes the impact of WTO accession on Russia's agricultural sector. Three aspects of WTO rules that will affect Russian agriculture are examined: (1) financial support from the Russian government, (2) market access for foreign imports, and (3) market access for Russia's food exports. Addressing the question of positive and negative impacts on Russia's agricultural sector, the article asks if a pessimistic view that sees primarily negative consequences as a result of accession is justified. Claims made by skeptics who are dismissive of the impact WTO entry will have on Russian agriculture are also considered.     

Dynamics of Trade in Value-Added in “Factory Asia”

ABSTRACT

Trade patterns in East Asia are termed the “Factory Asia” model, whereby Asia functions as a “global factory” that imports intermediate goods from its regional networks and then assembles and exports them as finished goods to higher-income developed countries. In 2001, China’s accession into the World Trade Organisation consolidated this pattern by becoming the core economy in this model. However, is this pattern still valid after more than a decade of rapid development in East Asian countries? The main objective of this article is to examine the evolution of this pattern of trade in East Asian countries. Although the key findings of this study show that the Factory Asia model continues, it is changing as different East Asian countries capture more value in global value chains. The gaps in the rate of upgrading are identified and mainly attributed to differences in government policies and competition. However, the dependence on foreign inputs still remains an important part of high-technology production in East Asian countries. Hence, the idea that East Asia is evolving from a “factory” into a “Research & Development hub” remains far-fetched.     

‘When we have nothing we all eat grass’: debt,donor dependence and the food crisis in Malawi, 2001 to 2003

In 2002, Malawi faced a devastating food crisis, an event in which hundreds of people died of hunger, while over a thousand succumbed to a country-wide cholera epidemic. By June of that year, over 3.2 million people needed emergency food aid, one-third of Malawi's population. This article assesses the crisis through the lens of donor–government relations. Beginning with the restructuring of the agricultural sector under a World Bank-sponsored structural adjustment programme, a process that discouraged food production by small-holder farmers, the article explains how the Malawian government's reliance on external sources of funding, and its deteriorating relations with key international creditors, rendered it impotent in the face of the oncoming crisis. Having sold its strategic grain reserve (SGR) to service mounting debts, the government could not rein in a food price spiral that peaked in March 2002. Allegations of financial irregularities surrounding the sale of the SGR served to make matters worse. The United States, Britain, Denmark and the European Union cancelled direct development funding and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank suspended Malawi from the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative. With limited access to credit, the Government of Malawi could neither re-stock its food reserves nor fund emergency imports in time to mitigate the worst effects of the crisis. Relief aid was further delayed by disagreements between the government and key donors and aid agencies regarding genetically modified (GM) food. While accepting Amartya Sen's basic entitlements framework – the 2002 crisis was one of pricing and access rather than absolute shortages of food – the article posits the following theoretical argument: in the context of highly indebted poor countries, it is a government's relationship with its principal donors and creditors that determines the outcome of food crises by shaping the policy responses available both leading up to and during the event.     

Nationalist Mobilization and State–Society Relations: The People's Houses' Campaign for Turkish in Izmir,June–July 1934

This article studies the campaign against the use of non-Turkish languages that was organized by local forces in Izmir in 1934. In contextualizing the campaign within domestic politics and state–society relation, the article attempts to study domestic politics through a local perspective and explore the impact that similar events in the periphery had in the centre's policies, which the literature is usually inclined to comprehend solely with reference to state ‘high politics’. The article argues that cases of autonomous mobilization from below, such as the 1934 Izmir campaign, contributed to the evolution of the Turkish political regime in the 1930s by turning the centre towards decisions that would redesign the relationship between the state and the ruling party, and have an impact on state–society relations.     

Unexpected Persistence Amidst Enlargement Stasis: Usages of Europe in Turkey’s Nuclear Energy Debate

Recent studies on European Union (EU) Enlargement have emphasised the importance of usages of ‘Europe’ by domestic actors as a necessary condition for the EU to have an impact on domestic politics. We study the usages of Europe in the critical case of Turkey’s nuclear energy policy. We analyse the narratives and actions of domestic actors in Turkey to identify if they use ‘Europe’ (the EU and the idea of Europe). We reach the counter-intuitive finding of usages by both state and non-state actors, which illustrates that usages of Europe can persist despite enlargement stasis in candidate states.     

The financial crisis in East Asia

The East Asian financial crisis has proved far more contagious than anyone imagined likely when devaluation of the Thai baht in July 1997 gave the first indication that something was wrong, and the implications it could have for the entire world financial system mean that any response must involve more than just the nations affected directly. Nobuyuki Ichikawa says Japan, as the locomotive for the Asia‐Pacific region, must move quickly to achieve an early economic recovery by increasing domestic demand and reforming its financial system, in order to increase imports from East Asia and shore up the weak yen. He suggests that one effective measure might be for the yen to become the key currency for Asia in lieu of the dollar. Ichikawa works for the Bank of Japan and was seconded to IIPS in 1995.     

La nacionalización del hogar en España

The nationalization of the domestic sphere in Spain is a topic that has been largely ignored. Recently, the interest in the study of banal nationalism and the impact of nationalism on everyday life has been on the rise, particularly for the Francoist and democratic era; however, its origins are not clear at all. An examination of developments in domestic architecture, interior decoration, and even gardening shows that the domestic sphere was nationalized during the first three decades of the twentieth century. Regionalist architecture was in vogue for villas and country-houses and furniture was increasingly modeled after local artisanal traditions. Domestic practices such as cooking, consuming, and cleaning were also increasingly connected with supposedly “national” traditions. During this period Spanish cuisine and many of its regional dishes were “invented”. The first phase of the nationalization of the domestic sphere in Spain is analyzed using a wide array of primary sources (press, manuals, speeches, etc.), thus contributing to the history of nationalism, gender studies, the history of architecture, and food studies, which by focusing on modernization processes largely disregarded this profound nationalization of the private sphere.     

中俄、中澳能源合作比较研究——合理性、有效性、可持续性探析

为了减少对中东能源的依赖,中国实施了能源进口多元化、拓展海外能源产地的战略,加强了与俄罗斯、澳大利亚等国的能源合作。俄、澳两国作为中国的重点合作对象,在能源结构、国内制度、与中国合作的模式等方面有着各自的特点。从合理性、有效性、可持续性三个视角对中俄、中澳能源合作进行比较分析,有助于我们探寻两种合作模式的成功经验以及如何克服不利因素的影响。     

Restructuring the Mechanism of Foreign Economic Relations in the USSR

An up-to-date paper by the Deputy Chairman of the State Commission on Foreign Economic Relations, USSR Council of Ministers, details recent economic reforms in the foreign trade sector of the USSR. Particular emphasis is placed on direct business relations between Soviet enterprises and their foreign counterparts, and on joint ventures with CMEA partners as well as firms in Western and developing countries. Anticipated changes in the role exports and imports are to play in the Soviet economy are also discussed. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 420.     

Filling in the Gaps: The Transnational Administration of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Peru

Diverse sources have constructed a common narrative of individual and isolated responses by countries and their leaders to the global coronavirus pandemic, akin to sálvese quien pueda (every man for himself). This article suggests that this is a simplification of the governance of the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru. Peru's governance story is one of domestic public and private action closely interwoven with crucial elements of transnational administration out of sheer necessity. The struggle against the pandemic has generated a domestic and transnational administrative symbiosis, involving authorities at multiple levels in efforts to fill a series of interconnected domestic, regional, and global governance gaps.     

日本货物进出口贸易协调性的动态分析及启示

日本货物出口与进口之间是否存在协同均衡增长的动态发展关系,是否存在维持进出口内在均衡的机制,文章基于2008年—2012年的月度数据进行了实证分析。协整检验结果表明,日本货物出口与进口存在长期稳定的协整关系。从误差修正模型看,短期内日本货物出口与进口之间存在动态调整机制。根据格兰杰因果关系检验,日本货物出口与日本货物进口存在单向和双向因果关系。脉冲响应函数分析表明,日本货物出口的某一冲击会给日本货物进口增长带来同向冲击。实证结果表明在垂直专业化分工背景下,尽管自动调节机制可以使日本货物进出口向长期均衡调整,但是由于全球需求放缓、向海外转移生产基地、日元持续升值和东日本大地震等不确定因素的综合影响,日本沦为经常项目逆差国的可能性正在加大。     

The loyal editor effect: Russian online journalism after independence

This article investigates what effect pressure from owners – via loyal editors – had on journalistic output at the popular Russian online newspapers Lenta and Gazeta. Using novel methods to analyze a data-set of nearly 1 million articles from the period 2010–2015, this article separates the effect of a changing news agenda from new editorial priorities. Statistical tests show that changes in output coincide temporally with editorial change, and that the direction of change sees new editors move away from publication patterns associated with other independent outlets. In both Gazeta and Lenta, editorial changes were accompanied by a move away from core news areas such as domestic and international politics, toward lifestyle and human interest subjects. The loyal editor effect resulted in a 50% reduction in coverage of controversial legal proceedings, together with the business dealings of Russian elites.     

Drugs Around the Corner: Domestic Drug Markets and Violence in Colombia and Mexico

Over the past decade, drug consumption has increased in Colombia and Mexico, countries traditionally concerned with drug production and trafficking. Governments and observers have associated this growth with spikes in violence. Drawing on drug consumption surveys and fieldwork in four cities, this study argues that contrary to this perception, there is no automatic connection between domestic drug markets and violence. Violence depends on whether large drug‐trafficking organizations (DTOs) control low‐level street dealers and on whether those DTOs have a market monopoly at the local level. When dealers are independent, violence might be sporadic, but when DTOs control dealers, violence can explode (given competition between DTOs) or implode (if one organization holds a monopoly). Control over dealers provides DTOs not only income but also informants and armed muscle. This article also shows that domestic drug markets are not new, and have grown incrementally in the past two decades.     

From Secessionist Conflict Toward a Functioning State: Processes of State- and Nation-Building in Transnistria

How have the Transnistrian authorities sought to consolidate de facto statehood in the absence of international recognition? Starting from the idea that the time factor will eventually transform secessionists into state-builders, this article traces how the processes of state- and nation-building promoted by the Transnistrian de facto authorities have evolved since the early 1990s. Drawing on official sources, interviews, journalism, and the political science literature, the domestic dimensions of state- and nation-building in de facto state conflicts are examined. These include fulfillment of basic requirements of state-building, development of economic viability, and nation-building processes that attempt to create a unifying identity.     

Malaysia-China Network Trade: A Note on Product Upgrading

This article addresses the importance of network trade between Malaysia and China and assesses the extent of product upgrading in components traded. The study brings to the fore the following points. First, China is emerging as an important market for component imports relative to component exports. As such, the increase in two-way flows of parts and components for further processing and development, implying a shift away from assembly-end operations, remains insignificant. Secondly, network trade appears to have improved the quality of exports destined to China (reflecting a “moving up of the value chain”), but the gaps between the unit values of export and imports have narrowed in the recent past, implying less product development.