The ‘Tianxia Trope’: will China change the international system?

The tianxia trope has been advanced as an organizing principle for post-Cold War international relations encompassing the rise of the People's Republic of China. The tianxia system is defined as a Sino-centric hierarchical relationship among unequals, governed according to Confucian principles of benevolence. As traditionally practiced, it incorporated an important role for the observance of ritual, including the presentation of tribute to the emperor as Son of Heaven, purportedly resulting in a Pax Sinica. Its supporters believe that, if adopted in today's world, tianxia would constitute a great improvement over the anarchic Westphalian system of theoretically equal states who possess sovereignty, i.e. inviolability within their own borders. Because they answer to no superior authority, the Westphalian system is by its very nature conducive to discord and war. This article will argue that both the tianxia and Westphalian systems have serious flaws and were rarely practiced as either their proponents or detractors argue. However, even states whose domestic autonomy is compromised by internal dissent and whose weaknesses prevent their playing an influential role internationally have vested interests in maintaining adherence to the Westphalian system, if only as a bargaining position. The PRC government itself has accepted the principles inherent therein through such actions as joining the United Nations and becoming a signatory of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. It zealously defends its sovereign prerogatives when useful, even as it makes efforts to educate the world on the virtues of a Confucian Great Harmony, and its supporters advocate following a somewhat nebulously defined Chinese model. In the absence of compelling incentives for major players in the current international system to adopt the tianxia system, Westphalian sovereignty appears likely to remain the organizing principle of international relations for the foreseeable future, its serious deficiencies notwithstanding. To paraphrase Winston Churchill's remarks on democracy, it may be the worst form of government except for all the others.     

The Economics of Power Transitions: Australia between China and the United States

This article examines Sino–Australian economic relations, and their impact on the ties between the United States and Australia. First, drawing on power transition theory, it is argued that in a post-Cold War environment, economic ties play as great a role as strategic relations in determining the orientation of third-party states. Second, it is also argued that Australia's deeper economic and commercial ties with China have usurped a role previously held by the United States. This has forced Australia to pursue a bifurcated foreign policy—one split between its economic and national security needs. Third, these deeper ties with China have generated a degree of alliance drift between Australia and the United States. As a result, there is now a significant debate in Australia over the future of both bilateral relations—even as its space for policy innovation remains limited.     

China and Central Asia: a new Great Game or traditional vassal relations?

Central Asia and China have been closely intertwined in history and today that relationship has begun to re-emerge. This article analyses the reasons for the close cooperation which has re-emerged in the 1990s and boomed in the twenty-first century. Domestic and internal factors, as well as political and economic considerations are included in the search for an explanation for current relations and future expectations. Despite the fact that China has emerged as one of the world's most powerful states, its dependence on the Central Asian states in regard to oil and gas but also domestic security is intriguing. The future of Sino-Central Asian relations is deeply embedded in joint problems and common interests, but also in fear of domination and external intervention.     

River Politics: China's policies in the Mekong and the Brahmaputra in comparative perspective

China manages its transboundary rivers as a subset of its broader relations with other riparian states. This results in discernible differences in the way China approaches its international river systems. Although there is a limit to the extent of Chinese cooperation, in relative terms China is more cooperative in the Mekong than in the Brahmaputra. To China, Southeast Asian states are part of a hierarchical system where it stands at the apex. While problems exist, there are deep linkages between them, which help foster collaboration in the Mekong. India, which has greater power parity with China, is not part of China's hierarchical worldview. The territorial disputes and security dilemmas that characterize South Asian geopolitics further impede cooperation. Domestic considerations also impact on China's river policies. There is greater consensus among Chinese policymakers in managing the Mekong than the Brahmaputra, which explains the higher degree of clarity in Chinese policies towards the former compared to the latter.     

Taiwan's New Grand Strategy

Since Ma Ying-jeou assumed the presidency, Taiwan's relations with Mainland China have been profoundly transformed. This article uses the perspective of a grand strategy to interpret and explain Taiwan's new approach to cross-Strait relations. It suggests that Ma's government has adopted a grand strategy of accommodation that uses assurances, confidence building, and economic integration to enhance Taiwan's security. This new grand strategy has both ideational and materialist roots. The article also assesses the preliminary results of Taiwan's new security approach and its future sustainability.     

Taiwan's Foreign Policy and Africa: The limitations of dollar diplomacy

The search for status, or more correctly, the desire to maintain status, lies at the heart of the Republic of China on Taiwan's (ROC) foreign policy. This is particularly so vis-a ¤ -vis its official state-to-state relations. In this regard, the ROC has been constrained by a conscious policy by the People's Republic of China (PRC) to try and marginalize Taiwan on the international stage. Due to objective realities, Taiwan has had to become satisfied with maintaining official state relations with small states only. All, with the exception of the Vatican, are in the developing world, with a number in Africa. This paper examines Taiwanese foreign policy and its diplomatic initiatives, with particular reference to its use of 'dollar diplomacy' in its activities in Africa. The constraints and limitations of such policies are drawn out.     

US 'Dual Track' Policy: Arms sales and technology transfer to China mainland and Taiwan

This article analyzes the United States 'dual track' policy on arms sales and technology transfers to the China mainland and Taiwan. Despite its 'one China' policy, the US has continued to sell arms to Taiwan and provide Taiwan with military technology. At the same time, Washington is unwilling to transfer certain technology to the China mainland. The US 'dual track' policy of arms sales and technology transfer to both sides of the Taiwan Strait has maintained a strategic balance by developing closer relations with Beijing while maintaining the security of the Republic of China on Taiwan. Washington's objectives are to enhance Sino‐American relations and to maintain Taiwan's security while not unsettling the generally positive Sino‐American relationship. While this policy has caused tensions in US‐PRC relations, this 'unbalanced balance' has served US interests in maintaining Taiwan's security and has not strained Washington‐Beijing relations to the breaking point.     

Hong Kong in United States‐China relations: The international politics of Hong Kong's reversion to Chinese sovereignty

This article examines the implications of the political transition of Hong Kong on US‐China relations in strategic, political and economic dimensions. It evaluates the impact of Hong Kong's changing status in the context of the engagement‐containment debate on China policy in the US. It suggests that US concerns over questions such as democracy and human rights and China's rejection of foreign interference’ in Hong Kong would turn the territory into a source of political conflict between the US and China. Finally it points out that any major trade confrontation between the two countries would have serious implications for the territory. The article concludes by arguing that if Hong Kong could continue to be a prosperous and free society with a global outlook, it would facilitate China's integration with the global community, but if a reversion to authoritarian rule occurred in Hong Kong, US‐China relations will be aversely affected.     

‘Three Chinas’ and international organizations after 1997

This article analyzes the effects of the transfer of Hong Kong's sovereignty to China in 1997 on the participation of Hong Kong and Taiwan in international organizations. It identifies the conditions under which China tolerates co‐existence with Taiwan as members of eleven intergovernmental organizations as of 1996. It concludes with two observations: one, international organizations are not monolithic entities; two, although China has overwhelming influence over Hong Kong's participation in these organizations, it depends also on how the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government is going to manage its relations with China.     

The Tibet Problem in the Milieu of a Rising China: findings from a survey on Americans' attitudes toward China

The Lhasa riots in 2008 re-captured the world's attention on the Tibet problem. As China continues to grow as a rising power, it raises a concern over whether the perception of a rising China will affect how American people think about the Tibet problem. In this article, the authors apply public opinion data to evaluate this question. The results show that the perception of China's hard power or soft power has little influence on Americans' view of the Tibet problem, while factors of political values and China's policy stance matter greatly. Our findings suggest that the huge difference in political values between the PRC and the US makes it tough for both sides to agree on a resolution to the Tibet problem. In the long term, China needs to improve its human rights record and present itself as a responsible great power to win over the hearts of foreign publics rather than conduct a public relations campaign according to its own imagination.     

The Missing Link in Sino–Latin American Relations

The growing economic presence of China around the world is a widely recognized reality. China's expanding economic relations with other developing countries have generated both positive and negative reactions. Many believe that the increasing economic ties between China and these countries will enhance China's political influence and encourage political cooperation between China and other countries in the Global South. How strong is the economic–political link? This article examines this question in the context of Sino–Latin American relations in recent years. It finds that thus far China's expanding economic relations with the region have not had a significant spillover effect into the political realm. The article provides preliminary explanations of the missing link between the economic and the political. It calls for more nuanced ways to apply familiar international relations paradigms to understanding the implications of the rise of China.     

An Emerging China and Diasporic Chinese: historicity,state, and international relations

The past decade has seen a growing body of literature on the (re)emergence of China and its implications for the new international order, and this scholarship is accompanied by the attempts from both within and outside of China to establish Chinese schools of international relations (IR). These admirable efforts, however, have been largely state-centric and concerned mainly with the balance of power, with little attention being directed to the diaspora's role in the evolution of China's international relationship and their potential contribution to bridging China studies and international relations theorization. Drawing upon theoretical insights from both IR and diaspora studies and employing a wide range of primary data including archives and personal interviews, this essay examines the diaspora's role (or the lack of it) in China's diplomacy since 1949 and attempts to conceptualize the Chinese experience in an historical and comparative perspective. I argue that historicity and state have played a significant part in shaping the interactions between the diaspora and diplomacy. The Chinese state's resilient capacity in domesticating (potential) diplomatic problems with respect to the diaspora and transforming them into new policy initiatives through facilitating diasporic participation in China's socio-economic and political processes has opened up new venues for the Chinese overseas to be involved in China's diplomacy. This article concludes by considering three different routes in engaging the diaspora with diplomacy at a time of China rising and by calling for strategic integration of diaspora into the emerging discourses on ‘IR theories with Chinese characteristics’.     

Between Confrontation and Assimilation: China and the fragmentation of global financial governance

This article explains China's multilateral approach towards regional and global financial institutions in the early twenty-first century. Challenging the dichotomous views of ‘eventual assimilation’ and ‘systemic conflict’, the article argues that China's strategic behavior suggests neither one-way assimilation into an American-centered liberal order nor a collision course with the United States and its Group of Seven (G-7) allies. China seems intent on exploring both global and regional options lest it should limit the range of strategic options available to itself. China has been pursuing a risk-averse counterweight strategy, that is, developing regional financial institutions and thereby avoiding overdependence on G-7-centered global institutions while maintaining collaborative relations with those global institutions. Such behavior will facilitate the emergence of a more fragmented and multilayered form of global financial governance in the post-global crisis world.     

A New Model of Big Power Relations? China–US strategic rivalry and balance of power in the Asia–Pacific

Exploring the causes of the China–US strategic rivalry and its possible mitigation, this article argues that President Xi's new model of big power relations represents a challenge to the US primacy in the Asia–Pacific based on China's rising power and deeply rooted suspicion of the US containment. But neither the US nor China can be the single dominant power in the region. The new model can be built only if China and the US demonstrate a strategic restraint and maintain a delicate balance of power to prevent their rivalry from boiling over into a new Cold War.     

China's Global Search for Energy Security: cooperation and competition in Asia–Pacific

China has adopted a state-centered approach towards energy security to deepen political and commercial relationships with all energy producing nations and to aggressively invest in oil fields and pipelines around the world. Applying this approach to its relations with its Asia–Pacific neighbors has produced mixed results. While China's energy diplomacy has brought about opportunities for cooperation with some of its neighbors, notably some countries in Central Asia and continental Southeast Asia, it has become a source of conflict with some other neighbors, especially those with border disputes over maritime territories which may have rich natural resources. This paper examines China's state-led search for energy security and its implications for China's relations with Asia–Pacific countries.     

About an ‘All-Weather’ Relationship: security foundations of Sino-Pakistan relations since 9/11

The traditionally close relationship between China and Pakistan cooled off somewhat with the end of the Cold War, mainly due to China's efforts to improve its relations with India and the disappearance of the Soviet threat. While China has continued to pursue its rapprochement with India after 9/11, developments since 9/11 have reinforced the security foundations of Sino-Pak relations and have consequently reversed the downward trend in the relationship leading to enhanced cooperation in a number of areas. US involvement in Central Asia and deepening Indo-US collaboration have further increased Pakistan's strategic importance for China. Islamabad also occupies a prominent position in Beijing's energy security and its efforts to stabilize Xinjiang.     

Sino‐Japanese Relations

China's relations with Japan over the past several decades have been cyclical, with periods of relative cordiality interspersed with episodes of contention. Since 1995, however, the Beijing leadership has perceived a hardening of attitudes on the Japanese side in ways that are inimical to long-term amicable relations with the People's Republic of China. This has been mirrored in Tokyo, which sees Chinese behavior as increasingly provocative. The policy directions of the two states appear more divergent as well. Periodic slight thaws in relations and numerous joint projects notwithstanding, the problems between the two defy easy solution, and may be intractable. Weak leadership in both countries may encourage extremists in each to become more assertive.     

Taiwan's Expansion of International Space: opportunities and challenges

While much is to be celebrated since Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's inauguration in 2008, cross-Strait relations are not without challenges. One such crucial test is Ma's call for Chinese leaders to stop isolating Taipei in the world community and give Taiwan adequate ‘international space’. Because the issue strikes at the heart of the fundamental differences between Taipei's and Beijing's positions regarding the island's sovereignty, it needs to be handled carefully by both governments for better cross-Strait relations. This study analyzes the approaches adopted by both Beijing and Taipei regarding Taiwan's status in the international community. Utilizing discussion with Chinese scholars and government officials and the analysis of several waves of survey data conducted in Taiwan, it argues that Beijing's flexibility in its application of the ‘one China’ principle and the Ma administration's practicality in making its requests are critical to the realization of Taipei's demand for international space and hence cross-Strait stability.     

Asymmetry theory and China's concept of multipolarity

Since 1986 the concept of multipolarity has played a key role in China's analysis of the world order, evolving from a critique of bipolarity in the late Cold War period into a critique of American unipolarity. Although multipolarity is empirically correct in its questioning of the superpower's capacity for domination and it is ethically attractive in its insistence on international cooperation, it does not address the real problems created by the disparity of power in international affairs. Asymmetry theory is a new paradigm that addresses the effects of national disparities on international relations. It argues that asymmetry inevitably creates differences in risk perception, attention and interactive behavior between states, and that it can lead to a vicious circle of systemic misperception. Despite such tensions, however, the international order is quite stable, and even asymmetric relations can rarely be forced by the stronger side. Asymmetry confirms multipolarity's critique of unipolarity's exaggerated claim to absolute power, and suggests a theory of international leadership based on negotiated relationships that avoid the systemic misperceptions that asymmetry encourages.     

Accounting for Taiwan's economic policy toward China

This article explores the ideas, institutions, and interests in which Taiwan's economic policy toward China is embedded. The authors indicate that the ideas behind Taiwan's economic policy toward China are as vibrant as ever, the political foundation for a coherent and feasible policy is eroding, and commercial interests are digressing from the Taiwan government's policy goals. Political forces around ideas have strong hearing on the formation of Taiwan's economic policy toward China. The truthfulness or falseness of the security argument is of intrinsic value to Taiwan's decision makers. The authors also point out that in order to have a complete picture of cross‐Strait economic relations, we need to specify how trade and investment with China influence Taiwan's distribution of political interests.