Recidivism as a feedback process: An analytical model and empirical validation

A feedback model of the criminal justice system (CJS) incorporates the continuing input of people arrested for the first time (virgin arrests) and the recycling of individuals with prior arrests (recidivists). Such a model is needed to enable CJS planners to assess the impact of possible actions on the future arrests and system workloads. Using an empirically determined estimate of the number of virgin arrests in the U.S. as input to a feedback model of the CJS, recidivism parameters, probability of rearrest, and average time between arrests were estimated by matching the output of the model to the total arrests in the U.S. in the period 1960–70. The average deviation between the model output and total U.S. arrests was minimized at less than 4% when the probability of rearrest is equal to 0.875 and the average time between arrests equal to 1.1. years. The relative sensitivity of total arrests to changes in virgin arrests and the probability of rearrest are also presented.     

A recidivism analysis of Maryland's community probation program

This study employed a type of quasi-experimental research design that compared a sample of offenders who underwent community supervision (HotSpot) with a matched sample of offenders who underwent “normal” probation supervision (presample) in Maryland. In addition to examining the recidivism pattern of both offender groups, specific attention was also devoted to the potential inhibiting effects of social bonds. Twelve months of recidivism information was collected to include both rearrest and technical violations. Results suggested that the survival distribution (for both rearrest and technical violation) of HotSpot probationers was not significantly different from the survival distribution for pre-HotSpot probationers. In addition, probationer's level of “stakes in conformity” served to inhibit both measures of recidivism, suggesting that offenders with more social bonds were less likely to incur a rearrest or citation for a technical violation. Theoretical and policy implications are highlighted, as are directions for future research.     

Evaluating the Long-Term Effects of Prisoner Reentry Services on Recidivism: What Types of Services Matter?

We analyzed data collected for a large multi-site evaluation of 12 prisoner reentry programs in 12 states to examine the impact of pre-release services on time to rearrest and number of rearrests up to 56 months post-release for male offenders. A two-stage matching quasi-experimental design was used to define the comparison groups and multivariate models were used to examine the relationships among service and program receipt and recidivism. Participation in the reentry program was associated with longer time to arrest and fewer arrests after release. However, the specific services delivered as part of the program showed modest or inconsistent impacts on recidivism. Services that focused on individual change were more beneficial than services that focused on practical skills and needs. Practitioners should consider careful sequencing of program and service delivery in prison, linking in-prison services to post-release assistance, and evaluating all services and programs for fidelity and effectiveness.     

Religious programs and recidivism among former inmates in Prison Fellowship programs: A long-term follow-up study

In the mid-1990s, Prison Fellowship (PF), a nonprofit religious ministry to prisoners, commissioned a study to determine the relationship, if any, between religious programming and recidivism. Subsequent research found no difference between PF and non-PF inmates on measures of recidivism. Inmates most active in PF Bible studies, however, were significantly less likely to be arrested during a 1-year follow-up period. This study extends and improves on previous research by: (1) increasing the recidivism window from 1 to 8 years; (2) incorporating new approaches to measuring program participation; (3) including two measures of recidivism—rearrest and reincarceration; and (4) using survival analysis and proportional hazards modeling to present and analyze the data. Results from survival analyses indicate: (1) no difference in median time to rearrest or reincarceration between PF and non-PF groups throughout the 8-year study period; (2) participants with higher levels of participation in Bible studies were less likely to be rearrested at 2 and 3 years after release, though the effect diminishes over time; (3) statistical differences across groups only border significance at 2 and 3 years for reincarceration; and (4) proportional hazards modeling shows that high participation in Bible studies significantly reduces the hazard of rearrest at years 2 and 3.     

The enhancement effect of social and employment integration on the delay of recidivism of released offenders trained with the R & R programme

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the extent to which social and employment integration enhances the efficacy of social–cognitive training carried out in prison through a Spanish adaptation of the Reasoning & Rehabilitation (R & R) programme. A quasi-experimental design was used to compare a group of inmates who received only social–cognitive training with a group of inmates who also received social and employment integration and with a comparison group who received neither of these interventions. The total sample was composed of 117 repeat offenders, serving sentence for property offences, drug dealing and offences against the person. The results obtained through a Kaplan–Meier survival analysis after a 6-year follow-up indicate that both intervention groups are significantly different from the comparison group. The group that received social and employment integration had the highest level of delayed recidivism, but the difference with the group that only received social–cognitive training was not statistically significant. The results are discussed in relation to the Good Lives Model and to the Risk–Needs–Responsivity Model of offender rehabilitation.     

THE IMPACT OF MEGAN'S LAW ON SEX OFFENDER RECIDIVISM: THE MINNESOTA EXPERIENCE*

Although Megan's Law was passed more than 10 years ago, very little is known as to whether it reduces sex offender recidivism significantly. Using a retrospective quasi‐experimental design, we examine whether community notification has a deterrent effect by comparing the recidivism rates of 155 level 3 (“high public risk”) sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 1997 and 2002 who were subject to broad notification with two separate control groups who were not. The first control group (referred to as the prenotification group) contained 125 sex offenders released between 1990 and 1996 (the 7 years preceding the implementation of the Community Notification Act) who likely would have been subject to broad community notification had the law been in effect at the time of their release. The second control group (referred to as the non‐notification group) was composed of 155 offenders (37 level 1 and 118 level 2) released between 1997 and 2002 who were not subject to broad community notification. The results from the Cox proportional hazards models reveal that broad community notification significantly reduced the risk of time to a sex reoffense (rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration) compared with both control groups. The findings were mixed, however, for both non‐sex and general reoffending. Whereas broad community notification significantly reduced the risk of timing to both non‐sex and general recidivism compared with the prenotification group, no such effects were found in the non‐notification group analyses. We discuss the implications of these results and attempt to explain why Megan's Law seems to reduce sex offense recidivism in Minnesota.     

Age at first court intervention and the likelihood of recidivism among less serious juvenile offenders

One of the rationales for diverting younger, less serious juvenile offenders from juvenile court is that there may be an inverse relationship between a juvenile offender's age at first formal intervention and his or her probability of recidivating. Yet, a truly reliable empirical test of this relationship has never been presented in the literature. Overcoming the barriers to such a test, this study examined the recidivism rates of six age-group cohorts of male delinquents in Illinois in order to test whether differences in juvenile's ages at first formal intervention (in cases in which first arrests involved class 3 or class 4 felonies) correspond with significant differences in recidivism probabilities. Results support the idea that differences in age at first formal intervention do not correspond with significant differences in recidivism probabilities. These findings would not have resulted without the use of varied follow-up periods for the different cohorts (to control for the influence of age during the follow-up period on the probability of criminal behavior).     

A long-term follow-up evaluation of the Minnesota High Risk Revocation Reduction reentry program

Objectives

This study examines the effectiveness of the High Risk Revocation Reduction (HRRR) program, a reentry program designed to reduce recidivism among offenders released from Minnesota state prisons.

Methods

Adult male release violators were randomly assigned to a treatment group that received supplemental case planning and access to community service and programs, or to a control group that received standard case management. Survival analysis was used to examine rearrest, reconviction, reincarceration for a new offense, and supervised release revocation.

Results

The results of Cox regression models showed that participation in HRRR significantly reduced the risk of rearrest but had no effect on the other measures of recidivism.

Conclusion

The results provide limited support for the program, although its effectiveness appeared to decline during the second phase of implementation. HRRR also reduced costs; however, the estimated benefits were not robust across all sensitivity analyses.

     

A three-year recidivism analysis of state correctional releases

The present study undertakes a three-year follow-up time frame of approximately 10,000 inmates released from New Jersey prisons in 2012. Consistent with the methodology set forth in federal analyses, various definitions of recidivism were utilized. Recidivism rates were consistent, and in some counts below, federal findings as well. Rearrest post-release rates were 53%, reconviction rates were 40.1% and reincarceration rates were 31.3%. Offenders released to supervision had higher rates of reincarceration, while unsupervised offenders (i.e. max-outs) had higher rates of rearrest and reconviction. Males were more likely to be rearrested than females, while younger offenders were more likely to be rearrested than older offenders. Released inmates with prior arrests, convictions, and reincarcerations maintained substantially higher odds of rearrest, as did those with a higher number of prison discipline allegations. Released inmates with a violent admission offense were rearrested the least, while those serving time on a previous community supervision violation were rearrested the most. These findings are discussed within the context the criminal justice system and the existing literature.     

LABELING EFFECTS OF FIRST JUVENILE ARRESTS: SECONDARY DEVIANCE AND SECONDARY SANCTIONING

A growing literature suggests that juvenile arrests perpetuate offending and increase the likelihood of future arrests. The effect on subsequent arrests is generally regarded as a product of the perpetuation of criminal offending. However, increased rearrest also may reflect differential law enforcement behavior. Using longitudinal data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) together with official arrest records, the current study estimates the effects of first arrests on both reoffending and rearrest. Propensity score methods were used to control differences between arrestees and nonarrestees and to minimize selection bias. Among 1,249 PHDCN youths, 58 individuals were first arrested during the study period; 43 of these arrestees were successfully matched to 126 control cases that were equivalent on a broad set of individual, family, peer, and neighborhood factors. We find that first arrests increased the likelihood of both subsequent offending and subsequent arrest, through separate processes. The effects on rearrest are substantially greater and are largely independent of the effects on reoffending, which suggests that labels trigger “secondary sanctioning” processes distinct from secondary deviance processes. Attempts to ameliorate deleterious labeling effects should include efforts to dampen their escalating punitive effects on societal responses.     

Can circles of support and accountability (CoSA) significantly reduce sexual recidivism? Results from a randomized controlled trial in Minnesota

Objectives

This study evaluates the effectiveness of Minnesota Circles of Support and Accountability (MnCOSA), a sex offender reentry program implemented by the Minnesota Department of Corrections in 2008.

Methods

Using a randomized controlled trial, this study compares recidivism and cost–benefit outcomes among sex offenders in the MnCOSA (N?=?50) and control groups (N?=?50).

Results

The results suggest MnCOSA significantly reduced sexual recidivism, lowering the risk of rearrest for a new sex offense by 88%. In addition, MnCOSA significantly decreased all four measures of general recidivism, with reductions ranging in size from 49 to 57%. As a result of the reduction in recidivism, findings from the cost–benefit analysis reveal the program has generated an estimated $2 million in costs avoided to the state, resulting in a benefit of $40,923 per participant. For every dollar spent on MnCOSA, the program has yielded an estimated benefit of $3.73.

Conclusions

Although difficult to implement, the CoSA model is a cost-effective intervention for sex offenders that could also be applied to other correctional populations with a high risk of violent recidivism.

     

Comparing Male and Female Prison Releasees across Risk Factors and Postprison Recidivism

This study, using data from a large sample of prison releasees, examined the similarities and differences in men's and women's risk factors for recidivism involving rearrest for any crime and rearrest for a violent crime during an average 3.4-year follow-up period. Logistic regressions revealed several gender differences. Prior incarceration, time served, and specific types of prior arrest histories had differential associations with women's and men's overall and violent recidivism. Age, race, and conviction offense were gender-specific risk factors for overall recidivism, and education level and marital status were gender-specific risk factors for violent recidivism. Implications for risk assessment are discussed.     

The Impact of Federal Prison Industries Employment on the Recidivism Outcomes of Female Inmates

Female offenders face many barriers to employment, including a lack of education and work experience. Correctional work programs offer skills training and exposure to work routines and norms, yet there is scant research on whether these programs can increase a woman's employability, and thus reduce recidivism, upon release. This longitudinal study examines whether employment in the federal prison industries program, UNICOR, reduces recidivism among a large sample of female inmates. Propensity scores are utilized to control for selection bias. This study finds no significant differences in rearrest or recommitment to federal prison between inmates employed in UNICOR and those who were not. Length of UNICOR employment is also not shown to have an effect on recidivism. The gender-specific needs of female offenders must be taken into account when developing correctional programming as factors other than employment may be more salient to a woman's ability to desist from crime.     

Brief motivation enhancing intervention to prevent criminal recidivism in substance-abusing offenders under supervision: a randomized trial

The goal of this study was to assess the effect of a brief motivation enhancing intervention (MEI) on criminal recidivism. This was a multi-site, cluster-randomized clinical trial in six addiction probation offices. We randomized 73 probation officers (37 to intervention, 36 to control) and followed 220 substance-abusing repeat offenders that were allocated to them (111 intervention, 109 control). We report three measures of recidivism rate (self-report, police records, and combination of either of the two) and time to re-offending (police records) during a 12-month follow-up period. The proportion of re-offending and time to re-offending was not significantly different between offenders that received supervision plus intervention and those that received supervision-as-usual (SAU, no intervention). Our findings provide no evidence that supervision plus a brief MEI is more effective than SAU.     

Offender-focused police intervention in residential burglary and theft from vehicle hot spots: a partially blocked randomized control trial

Objectives

To test an offender-focused police intervention in residential burglary and residential theft from vehicle hot spots and its effect on crime, arrests, and offender recidivism. The intervention was prevention-focused, in which detectives contacted offenders and their families at their homes to discourage criminal activity.

Methods

The study was a partially blocked, randomized controlled field experiment in 24 treatment and 24 control hot spots in one suburban city with average crime levels. Negative binomial and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression were used to test the effect of the presence of intervention and its dosage on crime and offender recidivism, and examination of average and standardized treatment effects were conducted.

Results

The analyses of the hot spot impact measures did not reveal significant results to indicate that the treatment had an effect on crime or arrest counts, or on repeat arrests of the targeted or non-targeted offenders living in the hot spots. However, the relationships, while not significant, were in a promising direction.

Conclusions

The collective findings from all four impact measures suggest that the intervention may have had some influence on the targeted offenders, as well as in the treatment hot spots. So, while the experimental results did not show an impact, they are promising. Limitations include large hot spots, the low case number, low base rates, and inadequate impact measures. Suggestions are provided for police agencies and researchers for implementing preventive offender-focused strategies and conducting studies in suburban cities.

     

Follow-up after release of insanity acquittees, mentally disordered offenders, and convicted felons

The authors compared 127 insanity acquittees in the state of Maryland with a matched prisoner control group of 127 convicted felons and a comparison group of 135 mentally disordered prisoners transferred for hospital treatment. Subjects were followed from five to 17 years after discharge from hospital or release from prison. Subsequent arrests, hospitalizations, employment, and functioning of these large cohorts were studied and compared. The study focused on outcome data at five years after release. The authors found that, at five years postrelease, 54.3 percent of the insanity acquittees, 65.4 percent of the prisoner control group, and 73.3 percent of the mentally disordered prison transfers were rearrested. At 17 years postrelease, rearrest rates increased to 65.8 percent of the insanity acquittees, 75.4 percent of the prisoner controls, and 78.4 percent of the prison transfers. Significantly more mentally disordered prison transfers than NGRIs were rehospitalized during the follow-up period. Overall, the prison transfers had significantly poorer outcomes on nearly all variables studied compared with the other two groups. The authors conclude that although there were a substantial number of rearrests among insanity acquittees, that group had a statistically significantly lower rate of criminal activity compared with the other two groups of offenders.     

Evaluation of the cognitive intervention programme ‘A New Direction’ targeting young offenders in Sweden

The treatment of offenders has changed from focusing on risk management to also emphasizing salutogenic experiences as a protective factor. The programme ‘A New Direction’ involves cognitive intervention combining the above-mentioned approaches to treat young criminals and young persons at risk of developing a criminal lifestyle. In evaluating this programme, 61 participants from the Swedish social services and youth care facilities were divided into two treatment groups and two control groups. All participants were subjected to pre- and post-measurements using two questionnaires: the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and the Sense of Coherence (SOC-13). The two treatment groups followed the programme during one week and 9–30 weeks, respectively, with the control groups measured at approximately the corresponding time intervals. The results show reduced PICTS from high to low levels and increased SOC only for the multi-week treatment group. Although the recidivism analysis revealed a greater reduction of convicted offences in the multi-week treatment group compared with the control group, the finding is tentative because of small sample sizes. To conclude, cognitive intervention shows promise for reducing criminal thinking patterns and increasing sense of coherence, which may have beneficial effects on the behaviour of young offenders.     

Examining recidivism among foreign-born jail inmates: does immigration status make a difference over the long term?

The topic of ‘illegal’ immigration is currently the focus of intense ideological and policy debate in the United States. A common assertion is that those without legal immigration status are disproportionately involved in criminal offending relative to other foreign-born populations. The current study examines the long-term recidivism patterns of a group of male removable aliens compared to those foreign-born with legal authorisation to be present in the Unites States. The sample includes 1297 foreign-born males released from the Los Angeles County Jail during a 1-month period in 2002, and the follow-up period extends through 2011. Using three measures of rearrest and a rigorous counterfactual modelling approach, we find no statistically significant differences between the two groups in likelihood, frequency, or timing of first rearrest over 9 years. The findings do not lend support to arguments that removable aliens pose a disproportionate risk of repeat involvement in local criminal justice systems.     

Long-term recidivism of mental health court defendants

The first MHC was established in 1997 and now, over 15 years later, there are over 300 mental health courts in the United States. In a relatively short time these courts have become an established criminal justice intervention for persons with a mental illness. However, few studies have looked at the long-term outcomes of MHCs on criminal recidivism. Of the studies evaluating the impact of MHCs on criminal recidivism, most follow defendants after entry into the court during their participation, and only a few have followed defendants after court exit for periods of one or two years. This study follows MHC defendants for a minimum of five years to examine recidivism post-exit with particular attention to MHC completion's effect. Findings show that 53.9% of all MHC defendants were rearrested in the follow-up and averaged 15 months to rearrest. Defendants who completed MHC were significantly less likely to be rearrested (39.6% vs. 74.8%), and went longer before recidivating (17.15 months vs. 12.27 months) than those who did not complete. This study suggests that MHCs can reduce criminal recidivism among offenders with mental illness and that this effect is sustained for several years after defendants are no longer under the court's supervision.