Agency and fiscal dependence in central‐provincial relations in China

The incremental decentralization of economic and fiscal authority within the Chinese state has led to a debate over the extent to which the central government retains authoritative control over the provinces. Using detailed budgetary data, this paper argues that even though fiscal reforms may have given provincial governments independent sources of income, they remain dependent upon the center for budgetary subsidies and that without central subsidies provincial government would face serious budgetary shortfalls. This is true not only for provinces that receive more in central subsidies than they transfer to the center, but also for provinces that were net exporters of funds to the center prior to the 1994 fiscal reforms. Fiscal dependence is important because it gives the center a source of leverage that supplements the political leverage it gains from the nomenklatura system, allowing it to not only punish insubordinate provincial leaders as individuals, but to also punish recalcitrant provincial governments as institutions by either cutting or withholding budgetary subsidies.     

The Political Economy of Noncompliance in China: the case of industrial energy policy

One of the greatest challenges facing China today is the central government's ability to ensure that policies are implemented effectively at the local level, particularly policies that seek to make China's economic growth model more sustainable. These policies face resistance from local authorities and enterprises that benefit from the status quo. This raises a key research question: why do some provinces more fully implement these central policies? We argue the extent of local implementation is best conceptualized as a rational balance between economic and political incentives: localities with regulatory autonomy, low regulatory capacity and alternative interests will not fully implement policies that are at odds with local economic imperatives. By examining a critical case of central policy implementation—industrial energy intensity reduction in the eleventh five-year plan—this article demonstrates that, regardless of industrial makeup or economic development, provinces that have greater regulatory autonomy for noncompliance coupled with alternative economic interests do not, on average, perform as well. Using a nested analysis approach this study illustrates this argument with both quantitative analysis and original case study evidence from fieldwork interviews.     

空间效应视角下中国省域碳排放总量的驱动因素分析

运用空间计量经济学模型实证分析中国省域碳排放的空间效应及驱动因素的结果显示,中国省域碳排放存在显著的空间自相关性和集群趋势,并主要集中在经济发达、人口密集和能源消费强度大的地区;能源消费强度、人口规模和人均GDP对碳排放总量影响显著,其中能源消费的影响最大;城市化、产业结构和技术创新对碳排放的影响不显著。该研究结论为我国城市化和产业结构升级进程中控制碳排放增量、国家和地方政府建立相应的碳减排鼓励政策和技术研发支持机制,以及各省域构建各具区域特色的低碳经济发展模式具有决策参考意义。     

Domestic Institutional Constraints on China's Leadership in East Asian Economic Cooperation Mechanisms

The study of Chinese foreign policy has long shown that domestic politics and domestic constraints are sources of foreign policy, albeit generally considered less potent than ideology and interests. Domestic political constraints should also be explored as factors in Chinese regional policies toward East Asia, including regional economic institutions. This paper examines three domestic institutional constraints on regional foreign policy in the area of trade and economics: a fragmented decision-making structure that has difficulty with coordination, a relatively heavy reliance on top level decision-makers at a time when issues of Asian economic policy have relatively low priority for these same decision-makers, and the relatively extreme lack of autonomy for negotiators vis-á-vis top decision-makers in Beijing. These constraints are by any means unique to China. However, at a time when many observers and participants are expecting—indeed, often hoping for—Chinese leadership in the region, the paper posits that these constraints hinder the PRC's ability to fill this role. The key empirical focus is regional trade agreements and regional economic organizations.     

The Determinants of Provincial Presence at the CCP Central Committees, 1978–2002: an empirical investigation

Drawing on provincial-level time-series cross-section data for the period of 1978–2002, I test hypotheses on the determinants of Chinese Communist Party Central Committee (CC) membership shares for incumbent officials from different provinces. I find that officials from more populous provinces tended to take up higher alternate CC membership shares, but lower full CC membership shares. While urbanization is negatively associated with provincial alternate CC membership shares, there is little support for the role of other economic variables. The constrained nature of alternate CC membership implies greater ‘symbolic representation’ for the more populous and rural provinces on the national level in this period. These findings, based on considerations of distinct categories of CC membership, do not corroborate arguments sweepingly attributing CC representation to either provincial economic resources or performance.     

外商直接投资对中国产业结构升级的影响——基于粤苏鲁三省面板数据的时点个体固定效应分析

本文选取粤、苏、鲁三省2001～2011年第一、二、三产业的面板数据,采用时点个体固定效应模型,对外商直接投资对产业结构升级的影响做了实证分析,结果显示外商直接投资的进入促进了中国产业经济结构的升级.外商直接投资对第二产业的固定效应最大,其次是第三和第一产业.外商直接投资对第一、二产业的个体固定效应随经济发展水平的提高而降低;对第三产业的个体固定效应则随经济发展水平的提高而增强.外商直接投资对第一产业的时点固定效应呈一直降低趋势,对第二产业的时点固定效应则先升高后降低,对第三产业的时点固定效应呈先降低后升高趋势.     

Business‐Government Relations in Industrializing Rural China: A principal‐agent perspective

This paper explains why rural enterprises prosper in the post-Mao reform era. Based on a case study of Shaanxi province, the paper argues that the institutional arrangements in rural China under economic reforms are conducive to sustained economic growth because the principal‐agent problem is alleviated in two dimensions. First, the interests of local government officials and enterprises overlap. Prompted by the fiscal pressures on local governments as a result of the fiscal reforms, particularly the 1994 tax-assignment reform, local governments are eager to promote local industrial growth. Apart from absorbing rural surplus labour and contributing to the provision of communal welfare to local residents, rural enterprises provide local governments with tax and non-tax revenues to finance their expenditure obligations. In return, local governments provide preferential aid to their enterprises in the form of tax and credit privileges. Second, the principal‐agent problem is abated by a closer effort-and-reward link for the various parties involved in the operation of rural enterprises.     

谈环渤海区域经济发展中的软环境建设

环渤海区域经济发展软环境的好坏,决定着经济发展的速度和质量。环渤海区域各省、市应下力气抓好本区域经济发展的软环境建设,在区域经济竞争中创造凝聚力、形成吸引力、提高生产力,推动环渤海区域经济快速发展。     

西北地区住房保障水平测度及其比较研究。

该文使用住房保障水平测算模型，通过估算西北各省经济适用房支出和廉租房支出，对西北五省住房保障水平进行测度。然后把西北各省住房保障水平与其年均GDP结合起来，用以考察各省的住房保障水平与经济发展水平的适应性，分析找出经济实力相对较好、住房保障水平相对较高的省份，这对推动西北各省科学制定住房保障政策及合理安排住房保障财政支出结构有重要作用和意义。     

China's post‐1979 uneven regional policy: Shanghai and Guangdong

This article examines the effects of China's uneven regional development policy, especially in relation to Shanghai. It analyses the evolving role of Shanghai and the constraints that it has operated under during the reform period. Discussion will be particularly devoted to the areas such as the fiscal transfer, central investment in the municipality, the tax and other incentive program allowed to increase the inflows of foreign direct investment by adopting a series of comparisons with Guangdong province. The article argues that it is not economically efficient for China to ‘open its door’ by creating new cities in its southern area while neglecting to improve existing facilities in Shanghai and other advanced cities. This article also suggests that social‐economic institutional change is the same important source of Shanghai's difficulty in keeping pace with Guangdong as the preferential treatment given to Guangdong by the central government in the 1980s.     

Who Pollutes? Ownership type and environmental performance of Chinese firms

What is the relationship between ownership type and environmental performance in Chinese firms? Using a survey of over 1,000 industrial firms in 12 Chinese cities in 2006, this article tests a number of competing hypotheses linking ownership type to environmental performance. The results show that small and medium state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on average spend less on pollution abatement technologies and are less likely to meet national emissions standards, compared to privately owned enterprises (POEs) and foreign invested enterprises (FIEs). However, the environmental performance of the largest SOEs matches that of their private and foreign counterparts. These findings are complemented by qualitative interviews and archival research conducted in 2012.     

基于外贸视角的经济增长方式转型——以长江三角洲地区为例

中国发达地区传统的经济增长方式转型是牵引中国经济持续发展的主要动力。从对外贸易的角度审视,尽管长江三角洲地区外贸总量快速增长,但加工贸易增值系数和经济效益不高,在全球产业链中处于低端。以往依靠税收优惠和稀缺土地资源进行的招商引资,在带动地区经济规模的扩张和外贸粗放增长的同时,也产生了成本上升和资源无法支撑外贸继续发展的副作用。频繁遭遇的各种贸易壁垒,则从国外市场的需求和生产技术国际标准方面,构成了对长三角地区外贸发展模式的倒逼机制。增强自主技术创新的能力,积极探索引资方式的创新,稳步推进“走出去”的多元化战略,建设和完善高效应对贸易摩擦的机制,才能实现经济持续、稳健、快速的发展。     

Fiscal Decentralization: guilty of aggravating corruption in China?

The relationship between fiscal decentralization and corruption is highly controversial but insufficiently tested with respect to China. This article empirically tests whether fiscal decentralization aggravates corruption in China's local governments. To acquire more robust results, we employ multiple corruption and fiscal decentralization measures and collect data for 31 provinces from 1998 to 2008. Fixed effects panel models estimate the impact of fiscal decentralization on corruption after controlling for gross regional product per capita, the relative wage in the public sector compared to the private sector, political leadership changes, education levels, law enforcement and the number of NGOs. Our findings suggest that China has experienced a trend towards fiscal recentralization rather than decentralization in the 2000s. We also find the moderating effect of the level of law enforcement on corruption: fiscal decentralization in local governments with strong law enforcement deters corruption but the opposite relationship is found when their law enforcement is weak. The implication of our research is that a sound legal system and political will are prerequisites for successful fiscal decentralization.     

绿色税制改革的经济效应浅析

绿色税制改革是实现经济可持续发展的财政政策的一项重要手段。中国绿色税制的研究相对国外起步较晚，但是绿色税制的改革对实现中国经济可持续发展、构建社会主义和谐社会又有着重要的意义。     

税收竞争对外国直接投资的影响分析

1999-2003年间省级面板数据的估计结果显示，市场规模和基础设施是影响外国直接投资（FDI）的关键性因素。西部地区的税收因素对FDI作用明显，而中东部的税收因素对FDI的作用不明显。税收对吸引外资的效果带有明显的区域性特征。     

关于利用财政政策促进贵州地方金融发展的思考

在经济欠发达的贵州这类省份,有效运用财政政策能够对当地金融发展起到导向和促进作用,最终实现财政政策与金融的良性互动,为地方经济发展增添活力。     

公共安全支出对陆疆国防支出影响的实证研究——基于陆疆9省(区)的面板数据

以陆疆9省(区) 2007-2016年国防支出与公共安全支出的面板数据作为样本数据,采用最大似然估计方法对短面板数据进行了随机效应回归分析,结果发现,公共安全支出对陆疆9省(区)国防支出具有显著性作用,陆疆经济发展水平制约着陆疆国防支出。公共安全支出与陆疆国防支出呈现负相关关系。陆疆安全稳定在一定程度上受到了城乡差距的影响。地方财政支出与国防支出的关系为正,财政支出的增加能为国防支出提供更多支持,但并不显著,说明地方财政支出对国防支出影响因子较小,国防支出在陆疆安全上有一个比较稳定的投入,也印证了陆疆国防支出与地方经济发展的关系。陆疆国防支出的增加对犯罪率的下降有促进作用,社会犯罪行为是陆疆另一个社会稳定影响的因素,一些国际犯罪、宗教类犯罪行为会影响陆疆国防安全。     

Is China's Western Region Development Strategy on Track? An assessment

China's government launched the Western Region Development Strategy in 2000 with the aim of boosting economic development in 12 provinces, municipalities and autonomous administrative regions in the western part of the country. This paper presents the results of an assessment of the progress made so far and makes suggestions for better performance in the future. We conclude that although the western region has experienced impressive rates of economic growth, regional disparities in China have continued to widen in spite of the western regional strategy. We also develop a regional growth model to determine the major drivers of regional economic growth in the western region of China. Furthermore, the sources of regional disparities are examined using Morduch and Sicular's regression-based decomposition approach. These models are used for suggesting a more targeted package of regional development policies for the period beyond 2010.     

海峡经济区竞争性区域体系构建研究

竞争性区域是拥有独特“地方品质”的区域,以创新和知识作为其发展的催化剂,成为国家乃至全球最具发展活力的区域。竞争性区域的构建过程集中体现为提升区域竞争力的战略政策要点和与此相配套实施的多级治理措施的高效统一。从竞争性区域构建理论视角考察,海峡经济区作为两岸经济整合的独特区域,其基础设施网络连接性、产学研互动合作、产业集群培育、城市经济协同发展方面亟待推进,竞争性区域特质尚不发育。今后应从基础设施的协调与衔接、区域产业分工协作体系建立、厦金特区和福马特区创建、经济运行机制衔接、台湾海峡城市联盟缔结、开展以政府政策协调为中介的公私合营等方面着力推进,以构建海峡经济区竞争性区域配套体系,推动海峡经济区迅速崛起成为中国乃至世界新兴的竞争性区域。     

Growth Disparity in China: Provincial causes

The strategic shift of central government policy from equitable economic growth to the open door policy with an emphasis on coastal development in 1978 has resulted in uneven regional growth in China. The most noticeable growth disparity is between the coastal and inland provinces. This article seeks to identify the uneven growth of regional economies and to investigate provincial causes of such interprovincial variations in growth in the post-Mao era. This study develops a local reform-driven perspective to account for an unequal growth pattern in Jiangxi and Fujian. It finds that discrepancies in leadership role and ability to establish growth policy and strategies are the key variables in explaining the dissimilar pace of development. Such growth policy and strategies account for differences in restructuring in the local economy from centrally-planned to market-conforming, variations in creating new comparative advantages of the acquired kind, and different levels of marketization and non-state sector growth.