Decision Making in Autocratic Regimes: A Poliheuristic Perspective

This paper applies the poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making to non-democratic states. Poliheuristic theory asserts that state leaders assign primary importance to their political survival; however, the meaning of "the political" varies dramatically from country to country. Furthermore, the types of actors who hold leaders politically accountable also vary between countries. Consequently, leaders often pursue vastly different means of ensuring their political survival. The author uses the common distinction between single-party, military, and personalist autocracies to show that apparently arbitrary differences in autocratic leaders' political concerns actually vary in systematic and potentially predictable ways. Because this argument is generalized to non-democratic states as a whole, it has important implications for the ways in which democratic states craft their policies toward autocracies.     

Ethics, Foreign Policy, and Liberal Wars: The Role of Restraint in Moral Decision Making

Can morality be a basis for making foreign policy? What happens when it is? The dangers in using morality to justify violence are discussed in the light of the just war tradition and liberalism. An ethical case for the importance of restraint in moral decision making, especially with regard to unnecessary but desirable wars within liberalist approaches to foreign policy, is presented.     

The Process-Outcome Connection in Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Quantitative Study Building on Groupthink

This article investigates whether certain factors pertaining to the process of foreign policy decision making have a measurable, qualitative effect on foreign policy outcomes . The research is grounded in the groupthink literature but incorporates different dimensions of similar underlying notions from other international relations areas as well. Three different types of process factors are investigated: situational factors, such as stress and time constraints; factors associated with the structure of the group; and information processing factors. We test the influence of these factors on two types of outcomes—a decision's effect on national interests and its effect on the level of international conflict. We investigate this link in 31 cases of decision from 1975 through 1993. Scores for the outcome variables are based on survey responses from 21 foreign policy experts. For the process variables, we develop sets of operational definitions and then code each case based on extensive reading of case-study materials. OLS regression models are used to assess the hypotheses. We find that situation variables matter very little in terms of affecting outcomes and quality of information processing. On the other hand, both group structural factors and information processing are significantly related to outcomes in terms of national interests and level of international conflict.     

The Making of an Accidental Crisis: The United States and the NATO Dual-Track Decision of 1979

This analysis re-examines the Carter Administration’s formulation of policy on the theatre nuclear force issue following the neutron bomb affair. It demonstrates that European leaders did not foist the arms control component of the NATO dual-track decision on Jimmy Carter. Rather, the Carter Administration understood the merits of an arms control component following the August 1978 PRM-38 review and thought that Soviet–American arms control negotiations would play a crucial role in resolving the conflict between NATO and the Warsaw Pact over theatre nuclear forces. This analysis also considers the previously unexamined interactions between the United States and the Soviet Union in the months leading to the dual-track decision. It reveals that American officials underestimated the degree of Soviet anger over the dual-track decision, believing that arms control negotiations with the Soviets on theatre nuclear forces would be possible and productive. The Carter Administration did not foresee the Euromissiles crisis.     

The Role of the Practitioner-Scholar: Johan Kaufmann's Contributions to Scholarship on Decision Making in the United Nations System

The significant role that practitioner-scholars can play in research on the UN system is illuminated through analysis of the contributions of Johan Kaufmann who represented The Netherlands as Permanent Representative to UN agencies in New York and Geneva and to OECD in Paris. He combined scholarship with practice throughout his thirty-eight years in the Foreign Service and until his death in 1999. He was a keen observer of the impact on UN decisions of different negotiating styles, psychological and cultural characteristics, and professional backgrounds, as well as the significance of the diversity of roles played by representatives of states, elected officers of UN bodies, UN Secretariats, regional organizations, and NGOs. He had a penetrating awareness of the importance of the physical surroundings of conference diplomacy. He was a systemic thinker, continually placing activities near at hand in the larger context of the UN system and beyond. His scholarship most certainly reveals that practitioner-scholars can make vital contributions to international studies.     

中国东北地区与周边国家的贸易和投资关系

与日本、韩国、朝鲜、俄罗斯等东北亚国家的进出口贸易,在中国东北地区的对外贸易中一直占有较高的比重。日本、韩国还是东北地区最主要的外商直接投资来源国。当然,目前也存在着东北地区与主要周边国家贸易关系总体发展水平不高,利用日本和韩国直接投资地区分布严重不均衡、单个项目规模较小等问题。目前,既存在着东北地区加快发展与周边国家贸易和投资关系的机遇,同时也存在许多短时间内尚难以克服的障碍。因此,促进东北地区与周边国家发展贸易和投资关系既需要抱有合理的预期,更需要采取可行的对策。     

调整中的俄罗斯国防工业--结构调整中的经济理性和政府的作用

苏联解体之前就开始了国防工业的军转民过程,十多年过去了,整个世界的地缘格局发生了翻天覆地的变化,前苏联的领土范围内也出现了从政治到经济的剧烈变革,作为前苏联国民经济中技术经济潜力最大承载体的国防工业综合体也在发生着巨大的变化,诸如私有化、军转民等。但由于行业的变化处在一个剧烈变革的转轨年代,整个行业的变化呈现出一种不同于西方国家国防工业转型的新特点。分析转轨以来俄罗斯国防工业的发展状况,探讨其国防工业生存和发展过程中存在的问题、原因和发展的经济理性所在,对我们认识俄罗斯国防工业的转型能有更深刻的了解。     

欧盟能源与气候政策的战略调整

近年来,能源与气候问题在欧洲十分受关注,几乎是每次欧盟首脑峰会都要讨论的重点议题,欧盟也加紧了相关政策调整.但欧盟政策调整的目的不仅限于解决能源与气候问题,还有着经济、政治、外交等多重战略考虑.     

新形势下巴基斯坦的货币政策改革与调整

本文从现实需要和深层次矛盾两方面分析了巴基斯坦货币政策调整的必要性,从调控目标和调控方式等方面说明了巴货币政策调整的难点,分析了近年货币政策调整的主要举措,其政策调整虽取得了一定成效,但仍面临诸多问题。     

东亚危机与拉美的调整

自 1 997年下半年起 ,东亚国家和地区相继爆发经济危机或受到危机的强烈冲击和影响。一时间 ,东亚经济奇迹、东亚发展模式及其相关的各种问题引起了十分激烈且十分有益的争论。其中关于政府作用与危机的关系进而关于政府在东亚发展进程中的地位等问题是争论的焦点之一。政府作用问题不仅仅对东亚的发展具有十分重要的意义 ,而且一般而言 ,它对其他发展中国家的发展进程也产生了十分重要的影响。在拉美国家的发展进程中 ,政府作用也几经变迁。这种变迁在很多情况下受到了东亚地区直接或间接的影响。在拉美国家的“国家改革”进行多年但却长期徘徊不前之际 ,东亚危机引发的问题使人们有机会重新认识拉美国家的改革和调整进程     

亚太区域合作的新变化与中日韩合作

始于2007年的国际金融危机,使西方经济模式受到种种质疑和挑战,新兴经济体在全球经济中的地位不断上升,世界经济重心正在加速向亚太地区转移。中国作为正在崛起的新兴经济大国将为世界带来种种机遇。在此背景下,美日两国围绕"跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定"(TPP)纷纷调整其亚太政策。美国希望调整该地区合作"制度"规范亚太合作进程,日本希望通过呼应美国TPP战略来干预亚太一体化进程。东盟国家希望通过启动"区域全面经济伙伴关系"(RCEP)强化在亚太一体化进程中的主导地位。中日韩FTA谈判不仅有利于三国的经济利益,也将对亚太区域合作进程发挥重要作用。中国在积极参与区域合作的同时,还必须加速本国的经济结构、发展模式的调整。     

美国安全战略和对外关系进入新的调整阶段

“９·１１”事件使美国产生了罕见的不安全感，迫使它重新考虑所面临的安全威胁，重新构思应对之策。《四年防务评估报告》表明，美国已经开始就安全战略和对外关系作重大调整。这次调整的幅度和深度，可与冷战结束相比，标志着国际关系有可能开始进入一个新的阶段。     

Making Hong Kong Chinese: State Nationalism and its Blowbacks in a Recalcitrant City

Abstract

Drawing from the literatures on strategic identity shift and on signaling, this article examines the strategies used by Beijing to impose its monist brand of state nationalism on Hong Kong. Given the nominally high degree of autonomy granted to Hong Kong, Beijing has been unable to impose its nationalism directly from above. Instead, it has made use of cooptation strategies so as to cultivate increasingly vocal and influential loyalist circles among local elites, who have promoted state nationalism from within. This logic, this article argues, has led many among Hong Kong’s political elite to compete in expressing an increasingly overt Chinese nationalistic posture as a way to signal loyalty to Beijing. These strategies have however backfired, raising doubts as to the actual extent of Hong Kong’s autonomy and triggering an existential crisis that led to the emergence of a reactive form of popular Hong Kong sub-state nationalism. In this context, state and popular sub-state nationalisms have fed on each other and grown increasingly irreconcilable, echoing the intensifying radicalization and polarization between the authoritarian establishment and the democratic opposition.     

灰色区措施与多边贸易体制

灰色区措施是出口限制安排的俗称,包括出口国的单边限制及其与进口国的双边限制。进口国行政机关启动灰色区措施具有绕开国内宪政权力限制的动因,在国际层面体现了一种权力政治。灰色区措施以双边安排规避多边贸易体制的纪律,侵蚀多边贸易规则;它损害了消费者的利益,且不具有产业调整的功能。《保障措施协议》对灰色区措施予以全面否定,要求其回归多边贸易体制。如何对灰色区措施进行监督是未来彻底取缔灰色区措施的关键。