How useful are psychometric scores in predicting recidivism for treated sex offenders?

This study examined the relationship between psychometric test scores, psychometric test profiles, and sexual and/or violent reconviction. A sample of 3,402 convicted sexual offenders who attended a probation service-run sexual offender treatment programme in the community completed a battery of psychometric tests pre- and posttreatment. Using Cox regression, posttreatment scores on measures of self-esteem, an ability to relate to fictional characters, and recognition of risk factors were, individually, predictive of recidivism. When psychometric tests were grouped into dynamic risk domains, only the pretreatment scores of the domain labelled socioaffective functioning (SAF) predicted recidivism and added predictive power to a static risk assessment. The number of risk domains that were dysfunctional pretreatment also predicted recidivism outcome; however, this did not add predictive power to a static risk assessment tool. Possible explanations for the superiority of pre- over posttreatment scores in predicting reconviction are discussed, and directions for further research considered.     

Comparing recidivism rates of treatment responders/nonresponders in a sample of 413 child molesters who had completed community-based sex offender treatment in the United kingdom

Analysis of psychometric data from a sample of 413 child molesters who had completed a U.K. probation-based sex offender treatment program was carried out to assess (a) the effectiveness of therapy in the short term and (b) the longer term implications of treatment in relation to sexual recidivism. It was found that 12% (51 offenders) of the sample had recidivated within 2 to 4 years. Of these recidivists, 86% (44 offenders) had been reconvicted for a sexually related offense. One hundred thirty-five offenders (33%) demonstrated a treated profile (i.e., demonstrated no offense-specific problems and few, or no, socioaffective problems at the posttreatment stage). This group was compared with a sample of offenders deemed as not responding to treatment, matched by their levels of pretreatment risk/need. It was found that a significantly smaller proportion (n = 12, 9%) of treatment responders had recidivated, compared to the treatment nonresponders (n = 20, 15%), indicating a 40% reduction in recidivism in those who had responded to treatment (effect size = .18). Matching length of treatment to the offenders' level of pretreatment risk/need (i.e., higher risk/treatment-need offenders typically undertook longer treatment) reduced the rate of recidivism among this group to the level of recidivism observed among the lower risk/need offenders.     

Recidivism Rates Among Child Molesters and Rapists: A Methodological Analysis

We address the high variability in sex offender recidivism rates by examining several of the critical methodological differences that underlie this variability. We used a dataset on 251 sex offenders (136 rapists and 115 child molesters) who were discharged over a 25-year period to examine changes in recidivism as a function of changes in dispositional definition of reoffense (e.g., arrest or conviction), changes in the domain of criminal offenses that are considered, and changes in the length of exposure time. The data indicate that: (a) both rapists and child molesters remain at risk to reoffend long after their discharge, in some cases 15–20 years after discharge; (b) there was a marked underestimation of recidivism when calculating a simple proportion (%) consisting of those who were known to have reoffended during the follow-up period, and (c) there was a marked underestimation of recidivism when the criterion was based on conviction or imprisonment. Forensic, clinical and policy implications of this high variability are discussed.     

The Needs of Women Offenders

Abstract

Recent corrections research indicates that programs and community services providing assistance and training for women offenders are lacking. Using a sample of 402 female felony offenders, women's needs, including those thought to be criminogenic (i.e., characteristics and circumstances that heighten an individual's recidivism risk), are examined to determine whether certain groups of women possess similar sets of needs. Cluster analysis is used to identify combinations of needs shared within subgroups of female felons. Identification of common and co-occurring needs, particularly those associated with high risk for recidivism, can assist program staff, advocates for women offenders, and correctional administrators in determining what combination of program elements should be available to women, and the degree to which programming must address multiple domains.     

Correctional Policy for Offenders with Mental Illness: Creating a New Paradigm for Recidivism Reduction

Offenders with mental illness have attracted substantial attention over the recent years, given their prevalence and poor outcomes. A number of interventions have been developed for this population (e.g., mental health courts). They share an emphasis on one dimension as the source of the problem: mental illness. Their focus on psychiatric services may poorly match the policy goal of reducing recidivism. In this article, we use research to evaluate (a) the effectiveness of current interventions, and (b) the larger viability of psychiatric, criminological, and social psychological models of the link between mental illness and criminal justice involvement. We integrate theory and research to offer a multidimensional conceptual framework that may guide further research and the development of efficient interventions that meaningfully reduce recidivism. We hypothesize that the effect of mental illness on criminal behavior reflects moderated mediation (i.e., the effect is direct in the case of one subgroup, but fully mediated in another); and that the effect of mental illness on other “recidivism” is partially mediated by system bias and stigma. We use this framework to propose three priorities for advancing research, articulating policy, and improving practice.     

Beyond static and dynamic risk factors: the incremental validity of release planning for predicting sex offender recidivism

Both desistance research and strengths-based approaches to offender rehabilitation suggest that attempts to reduce sex offender recidivism should attend to an offender's release environment. Recent research has demonstrated that better quality release planning is associated with reduced recidivism; however, whether release planning contributes significant incremental validity in predicting recidivism over and above static and dynamic risk factors is unclear. In the present study, release planning was retrospectively assessed for a sample of child molesters (n = 196) who had been released into the community following completion of a prison-based treatment program and its relative contribution to recidivism risk prediction was investigated. The average follow-up period was 11.08 years, during which 13.3% of the sample were convicted of a new sexual offence. Hierarchical Cox regression analyses showed that release planning contributed additional predictive validity for sexual recidivism after controlling for static and dynamic risk factors. Findings suggest that assessment of release planning might improve accuracy of sex offender risk assessments and that improved release planning should contribute to reductions in recidivism.     

The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.     

The Effect of Previous Traumatic Injury on Homicide Risk

Research has reported that a strong risk factor for traumatic injury is having a previous injury (i.e., recidivism). To date, the only study examining the relationship between recidivism and homicide reported strong associations, but was limited by possible selection bias. The current matched case–control study utilized coroner's data from 2004 to 2008. Subjects were linked to trauma registry data to determine whether the person had a previous traumatic injury. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for the association between homicide and recidivism. Homicide risk was increased for those having a previous traumatic injury (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.09–2.99) or a previous intentional injury (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.24–5.17). These results suggest an association between homicide and injury recidivism, and that trauma centers may be an effective setting for screening individuals for secondary prevention efforts of homicide through violence prevention programs.     

Role-Taking and Recidivism: A Test of Differential Social Control Theory

This research measures group differences in recidivism before and after implementation of Megan’s Law. The pre–post study consists of a total of 550 male sex offenders released during the years 1990 and 2000, of which 250 offenders were released during 1990 and 1994 (i.e., the pre‐Megan’s Law group) and 300 offenders were released between 1995 and 2000 (i.e., the post‐Megan’s Law group). Offenders were released from a general population setting and a sex offender specific treatment facility. The main variables of concern include: (1) recidivism levels, (2) days to first re‐arrest, and (3) level of harm (i.e., number of sex offenses, violent offenses, and number of child victims). Statistical findings from chi‐square and survival analysis testing indicate significant group differences on levels of general recidivism; however, no significant differences were identified on measures of sex offense recidivism. Implications of these findings on sex offender specific policies are discussed.     

A review of dynamic variables and their relationship to risk prediction in sex offenders

In recent years, a good deal of attention has been paid to the question of recidivism in sex offenders, with an emphasis on the pool of identified static variables associated with risk. The paper aims to review the developing evidence-base for dynamic (changeable) variables, describing their clinical and research characteristics. It also considers the relationship between dynamic domains and apparently fixed developmental variables, such as attachment and victimization experiences. Three main models are presented, and examined in terms of their ability to enhance static prediction models. Results would suggest that there are four dynamic domains, which can predict sexual recidivism independently of static risk prediction, and that these domains should be of central consideration in the continuing development of treatment programmes.     

Predicting Recidivism Amongst Sexual Offenders: A Multi-site Study of Static-2002

The predictive accuracy of Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Corrections Research User Report No. 2003-01), 2003) was examined in eight samples of sexual offenders (five Canadian, one U.S., one U.K., one Danish; total sample of 3,034). Static-2002 showed moderate ability to rank order the risk for sexual, violent and general (any) recidivism (AUCs of .68, .71, and .70, respectively), and was more accurate than Static-99. These findings support the use of Static-2002 in applied assessments. There were substantial differences across samples, however, in the observed sexual recidivism rates. These differences present new challenges to evaluators wishing to use actuarial risk scores to estimate absolute recidivism rates.     

Predictive accuracy of static risk factors for Canadian Indigenous offenders compared to non-Indigenous offenders: implications for risk assessment scales

ABSTRACT

The over-representation of Indigenous offenders in Canadian prisons highlights the importance of research on the generalizability of potential static risk factors for this group. The current investigation examined whether 87 static indicators currently assessed in Canadian federal prisons were differentially present and related to outcomes (revocations, general recidivism, and violent recidivism) for Indigenous (n?=?1500) and non-Indigenous (n?=?6684) male federal offenders. The follow-up was eight months for revocations and five years for any/violent recidivism. Indigenous offenders scored significantly higher risk than non-Indigenous offenders on the majority of the indicators (particularly criminal history indicators). Generally, most criminal history indicators and some offence severity indicators predicted revocations, general, and violent recidivism for Indigenous offenders; however, several of the indicators had significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous offenders (particularly criminal history indicators). Overall, Indigenous offenders are a higher risk population and several static risk indicators do not perform as well for this group as for non-Indigenous offenders. Nonetheless, there were numerous static indicators that did predict outcomes for Indigenous offenders. The current findings suggest that it is possible to meaningfully assess static risk for recidivism among Indigenous offenders.     

A Time Series Modeling Approach in Risk Appraisal of Violent and Sexual Recidivism

For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.     

The parole performance of offenders released from shock incarceration (boot camp prisons): A survival time analysis

The parole performance of offenders who were released after successfully completing a shock incarceration program was examined and compared to the performance of offenders who were serving time on probation or parole after a period of incarceration. Separate survival analyses were performed for recidivism as measured by (1) arrests and (2) failures (jailed, absconded, or revoked). Prior incarceration, age, age at first arrest, and risk assessment score were related to recidivism but type of sentence was not. Intensity of supervision was significantly related to recidivism but this relationship was eliminated when risk level was controlled. There was no evidence that shock incarceration reduces recidivism. Future research should focus on methods of reducing failures during community supervision for these young, nonviolent offenders within the framework of either a shock incarceration program or some other sentence.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the American Probation and Parole Association 14th Annual Training Institute, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, August 1989.     

How well do dynamic needs predict recidivism? Implications for risk assessment and risk reduction

Purpose

The current study assessed the predictive validity of nine dynamic risk factors in two samples of justice-involved individuals (n = 24,972) to identify promising targets for correctional programming. The study also tested the incremental predictive validity of dynamic risk relative to static indicators of recidivism risk (i.e., criminal history, age and sex).

Methods

The study relied on bivariate correlations and stepwise multivariate logistic regression analyses to test the predictive and incremental validity of dynamic risk constructs measured by the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R).

Results

Study findings revealed that while several dynamic risk constructs were significantly related to recidivism (antisocial attitudes, antisocial peers, education/employment, and substance abuse) over a 36-month follow-up period, the inclusion of dynamic risk items on the LSI-R did little to improve the overall predictive validity of the instrument. Across both study samples, static criminal history risk emerged as the most robust predictor of recidivism.

Conclusions

The advantages of third and fourth generation risk-need assessment tools are noted for classification purposes, but the study findings imply that risk prediction is better served by static risk factors. Implications for risk assessment and offender case management are discussed.     

The Sexual Violence Risk-20: factor structure and psychometric properties

Although the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20) is widely used, its psychometric properties have only been investigated in a limited number of studies. This study explored the factor structure of the SVR-20 and examined its psychometric properties. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to examine the fit of the original three-domain model of the SVR-20. The CFA showed that the original structure was not satisfactory. Exploratory principal components analysis (PCA) was conducted in search of a more optimal factor structure. Psychometric properties (i.e., internal consistency, predictive value, and convergent validity) of both the original domains and alternative factors were investigated. The PCA and subsequent CFAs pointed in the direction of an alternative, more optimal three-factor solution. The three alternative factors were labeled as Antisociality, Sexual deviance, and Problematic thinking and produced better internal consistency coefficients than the original domains. However, the validity of the SVR-20 was modest and no evidence was found indicating that the alternative factors were better in this regard as compared to the original domains. Despite the overall superiority of actuarial measures in predicting recidivism, the structured professional judgment of the SVR-20 proved to be more predictive of sexual, violent, and general recidivism than its actuarial scoring method.     

LONG‐TERM CRIME DESISTANCE AND RECIDIVISM PATTERNS—EVIDENCE FROM THE ESSEX COUNTY CONVICTED FELON STUDY*

Two conflicting definitions of desistance exist in the criminology literature. The first definition is instantaneous desistance in which an offender simply chooses to end a criminal career instantaneously moving to a zero rate of offending ( Blumstein et al., 1986 ). The second definition views desistance as a process by which the offending rate declines steadily over time to zero or to a point close to zero ( Bushway et al., 2001 ; Laub and Sampson, 2001 ; Leblanc and Loeber, 1998 ). In this article, we capitalize on the underlying assumptions of several parametric survival distributions to gain a better understanding of which of these models best describes actual patterns of desistance. All models are examined using 18 years of follow‐up data on a cohort of felony convicts in Essex County, NJ. Our analysis leads us to three conclusions. First, some people have already desisted at the beginning of the follow‐up period, which is consistent with the notion of “instantaneous desistance.” Second, a three‐parameter model that allows for a turning point in the risk of recidivism followed by a long period of decline fits the data best. This conclusion suggests that for those offenders active at the start of the study period, the risk of recidivism is declining over time. However, we also find that a simpler two‐group model fits the data almost as well and gains superiority in the later years of follow‐up. This last point is particularly relevant as it suggests that the observed gradual decline in the hazard over time is a result of a compositional effect rather than of a pattern of individually declining hazards.     

Risk factors for recidivism among spousal assault and spousal homicide offenders

Abstract

The Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA; Kropp et al., 1995) is a 20-item checklist for the structured professional assessment of risk for partner violence. This study reported on a retrospective follow-up of file-based SARA assessments of offenders convicted 1988–1990 in Sweden. A total of 88 male batterers referred for court-ordered forensic psychiatric evaluations were included. During the 7-year follow-up, twenty-five (28%) were re-convicted of spousal assault. A few SARA items were statistically significantly associated with increased risk of recidivism, namely: Items #3, Past violation of conditional release or community supervision, #10 Personality disorder with anger, impulsivity, or behavioural instability (psychopathy), and #16 Extreme minimisation or denial of spousal assault history. The severity of the index crime (#18 Severe and/or sexual assault) was negatively related to risk for recidivism during follow-up. Offenders scoring above the median on the SARA were at more than 2.5 higher the risk for recidivism than those scoring below the median. In terms of predictive validity, the SARA actuarial score exhibited a marginal but statistically significant improvement over chance in this sample.     

Predictors of criminal recidivism among male batterers

The present study examined recidivism risk factors in a sample of 320 male batterers attending community treatment. Recidivism was assessed by new charges for violence or for any offence during a 5-year follow-up period. The variables associated with recidivism among male batterers were similar to those found for other criminal populations (e.g. young, unstable lifestyle, substance abuse, criminal history). There was no evidence that potential offenders were deterred by expectations of negative consequences, either social (e.g. friends would disapprove) or official (e.g. being arrested, losing job). Maintaining positive relationships with treatment providers was associated with reduced recidivism.     

Low‐Risk Youths Referred to Pima County Juvenile Court Center Detention Intake: Needs,Detention, and Recidivism

Delinquent youths who were low risk to re‐offend were the subject of this study. It was hypothesized that these youths would have high levels of need (e.g., mental illness) and that detention would lead to increased recidivism. Demographic and social factors, delinquency history, and recidivism data were analyzed, producing four major findings: low‐risk youths have high needs, low‐risk youths recidivate at high rates, unaddressed needs increase the likelihood of detention and recidivism, and behavioral health needs were among the strongest predictors of recidivism. The factors that lead to recidivism are discussed, and suggestions for improving outcomes are also presented.