中美关系走向与国际格局之变(名家笔谈)

Sino-US relations are one of the most important bilateral relations in the world. The sound and steady development of the relations not only conforms to the fundamental interests of both countries and peoples, but also contributes to the future world security order. However, US policies towards China have been undergoing significant changes since President Trump assumed power, leading to intensifying strategic competition between the two countries and making the bilateral relationship more complex, uncertain and uncontrollable. In the face of enormous difficulties, more efforts should be made to stabilize and further develop Sino-US relations now standing at a juncture. This has sparked a wave of discussion and debate among scholars both at home and abroad. How to view Sino-US relations in a comprehensive, objective, rational and pragmatic manner has become a major subject worth further exploration and clarification. Against this backdrop, on September 19, 2020, the Editorial Department of Journal of International Security Studies of UIR and the PLA Information Engineering University (Luoyang Campus) successfully co-hosted the 13th “Expert Forum” on the subject of “Assessing Sino-US relations” in Luoyang, Henan Province. Under the framework of “future development of Sino-US relations and the world security order”, distinguished scholars and researchers from all around China discussed such major issues as difficulties and development trends of Sino-US relations, US domestic political landscape and its policies towards China, as well as the construction of the future world security order and China’s strategic responses. Some of the viewpoints of the scholars and researchers are now offered to our readers.     

Reviews on Sino-US Security Relations

The coming five or ten years is a crucial period for China in building a moderately well-off society in an all-round way.The maintenance of a stable external environment during this strategic period of opportunity depends, in a great degree, on the stability of Sino-US relations. At present, the bilateral security relations are the bottleneck for the development of the overall Sino-US relations, mainly because a mutual trust between China and the US in the domain of security has not been established. The bilateral security relations that remain unstable for a long time will have a negative influence on the overall Sino-US relations, or even jeopardize the realization of their national interests.     

Sino-US Energy Relations and the Third Party Factor

The United States is the most developed country in the world and the number one energy-importing country. China is the largest developing country and the number two energy-importing country. The energy issue is thus a key issue in Sino-US Relations. The United States has been on bad terms with some energy-rich ＂problem countries＂, while the energy cooperation between China and these countries is starting to go well. Sino-US relations now affect the whole world, and China＇s and the United States＇ relations with these key energy producers--the ＇third party factor＇ may become a major source of competition and conflict between the two powers.     

The ‘Freedom of Navigation’ Issue in Sino-US Relations

On 27 October 2015, the US guided-missile destroyer USS Lassen entered China's 12-nautical-mile territorial waters in the South ChinaSea to carry out a so-called "freedom of navigation" (FON) operation.The FON issue has driven tensions in the region and has become a sore point in Sino-US relations.The US has long implemented close-in reconnaissance near Chinese territorial waters under the FON banner, but in recent years,the US has used this as an instrument to interfere in East Asian maritime disputes, risking heightening Sino-US frictions.As a result, their strategic mutual suspicion has increased significantly.This paper attempts to review the evolution of the FON issue in Sino-US relations, analyze the causes of Sino-US differences and the impacts, and assess future prospects on this issue.     

CIIS Released Report on China-US Cooperation

正On October 11,2013,China Institute of International Studies(CIIS),in cooperation with the Atlantic Council,released a report entitled"China-US Cooperation:Key to the Global Future"in Beijing.With generous support from the China-United States Exchange Foundation,the report was written by a China-US Working Group convened by the Atlantic Council in Washington and China Institute of International Studies in Beijing.Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang attended the event and made a keynote speech on Sino-US relations.     

Peace at a Price: Strategic Studies of Current International Security and War Issues

This year marks the 70th anniversary of the end of the World War II and the victory of the Anti-Fascist War. The WWII is an unprecedented disaster for humanity and, however, it can never be guaranteed that world wars will not break out again in the future. Just as wars can be classified as cold wars and hot wars, peace can also be defined as cold peace and real peace. Cold Peace, as an unstable state in the international relations, may bring misleading perception of peace, where peace is taken for granted, and potential crises may lead to international conflicts/ wars. This is clearly reflected in concerns of western scholars as exemplified by what is called Kissinger’s Worry and Haass’s Question. This paper approaches the question from a strategic and historical perspective and draws the following three conclusions: 1) historically, it takes a long time for people to realize the negative impacts of wars; 2) currently, we are in a dangerous stage of cold peace in terms of international security; 3) the Sino-US and Sino-Japanese relations will be crucial to the major power relations that affect China’s the national security in the future. China should find ways to deal with the two major relations and play its role in maintaining the world peace.     

How to Observe the International Hot Spots

How to Observe the International Hot Spots was recently published. As an outcome of concerted efforts of a team of experts and scholars with China Institute of International Studies, the book seeks to make insightful comments on major issues on current international politics and world economy, such as the Sino-US relations, the US rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific,     

Japan''s Energy Policy on China:In the Perspective of Oil Dispute in East China Sea

Over recent years, the oil dispute in the East China Sea has become a new contradictory focus in Sino-Japanese relations after the issues of the Yasukuni Shrine and history text book. This article tries to take the oil dispute in the East China Sea as a penetrating point to analyze the basic line of thinking in Japan's China energy policy adjustment so as to better recognize the current situation and future of Sino-Japanese energy relations.     

Congratulations on the 50~(th) Anniversary of the Beginning of Diplomatic Relations between China and African Countries

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the beginning of diplomatic relations between China and African countries. Over the past half a century, with the joint efforts by the leaders and peoples of China and Africa, the friendship between China and Africa has been increasingly consolidated and the relations between the two sides have grown to a new high. In November this year, the Beijing Summit and the Third Ministerial Meeting of the China-Africa Cooperation Forum will be held in Beijing to discuss the further strengthening of the relations and cooperation between China and Africa. To commemorate these historic events, the current issue of this Journal is bringing out four articles with regard to Sino-African relations and the situation in Africa to share with our readers.     

Specific Suggestions to Strengthen Relations with Latin America

In the two decades ahead, China‘s development will face a period of important strategic opportunities. While coping with big power relations, China needs to be pluralistic in external relations and economic and trade relations. Therefore, strengthening relations with the developing countries and promoting South South cooperation is in China‘s interest and an essential link to ensure China‘s rise in the new century.……     

美国国会拨款法案中的涉华条款

20世纪80年代以来,美国国会通过涉华立法对美国对华政策施加了重要影响。其中,美国国会在年度拨款案中附加了相当数量的涉华法,其内容涉及对华安全防范和出口管制、涉台和涉藏事务、人权等领域。这些涉华条款对中国核心利益和中美关系产生了不容忽视的消极影响。     

论中苏关系恶化对中国外交的影响

20世纪50年代末至60年代中苏关系的恶化不仅对中国的政治、经济发展产生了重大影响,而且对中国的外交也产生了重大影响。中苏关系恶化,首先导致了中国外交的战略调整;其次使中国外交日趋激进,并于60年代后期发展到极端;再次,促使中国发展与亚、非、拉国家的关系;最后,促使中国领导人下决心改善中美关系,联美反苏。     

中国、美国、东盟三边关系略论

中国、美国、东盟三边关系自形成至今,经历了几个不同的发展阶段,每个阶段都有不同的内涵。当前的中国、美国、东盟三边关系较为典型地反映了当今国际社会国家间矛盾与共同利益并存的复杂局面,因而形成于冷战时期的传统三边关系理论无法对其进行合理的解释。未来中国、美国、东盟三边关系的发展将受中美关系的走势、东亚区域一体化、中国的发展及其对外战略的选择3个关键因素的影响,其走势较为乐观。     

中国国家利益及其在中国—东盟关系中面临的机遇与挑战

东南亚地区关乎我国崛起过程中祖国和平统一、维护南海主权、确保良好中美关系以及拓展对外贸易等核心及重要国家利益,是推行睦邻周边外交、构建稳固战略依托的命脉和支点。台湾问题、南中国海问题、能源问题、自贸区建设问题及提高软实力问题是双方关系中的关键问题,在这些问题上中国核心及重要国家利益面临重大机遇和一定挑战。正确认识这些机遇与挑战将有助于我们有的放矢地推动双方关系进一步发展进而促进我国国家利益的全面实现。     

试析20世纪70年代中越关系剧变原因之苏联因素

20世纪70年代中越关系的变化出人意料,两国在短短的十年时间就从肝胆相照的兄弟变为不共戴天的敌人,促成这一剧变的诸多因素中,苏联因素不容忽视。苏联对第三世界政策的调整,导致其对越南政策的变化,在越南问题上由超然的脱身态度变为积极援助,中苏两国关于援越问题产生矛盾,越南出于自身国家利益考虑,推行有利于自身的倾向性政策,越南在中苏两国关系的天平上倒向了苏联一边。与此同时,苏联调整对社会主义阵营的政策,中苏关系破裂,从而影响中美关系走向,中美和解对中越关系产生诸多负面影响,两国关系交恶,矛盾冲突愈演愈烈,不断升级,最终导致中越处于全面紧张和严重对立状态,两国关系产生戏剧性变化。总之,苏联的全球性进攻战略政策对此期中越关系影响深远。     

从“尼克松主义”到“再平衡”战略——再思考美国亚太战略的中国因素

本文通过比较“尼克松主义”与“再平衡”战略对中国产生的不同影响，指出中国只有从外交、经济和军事三个方面综合理解美国的“再平衡”战略，采取灵活的战略应对，才能保证自“尼克松主义”以来开创的中美关系的健康发展。     

特朗普政府重构中美关系的抱负与局限

特朗普政府谋求从根本上重构中美关系,重置对华政策的前提与目标、框架与内涵、手段与方式,其所采取的一系列举措涉及面广、颠覆性强,严重削弱了中美战略互信,破坏了两国关系的重要基础,扭转了双边关系的发展方向,加剧了两国关系的紧张、摩擦与动荡,使两国走向对抗与冲突的风险显著上升。与此同时,特朗普政府重构中美关系的努力也受到多种因素制约,这使其实现对华政策目标的能力大打折扣。随着政治经济形势发展变化,美国对华政策还将出现新的调整,中美关系的发展仍然具有很大可塑性。对中国来说,以稳健的实力增长为支撑,以合理的利益交换为出发点,以适合时代潮流的对外政策为工具,致力于塑造良性竞争、互利共赢的中美关系,是当下和今后对美政策的基本思路。     

世界大变局与中美日三国战略选择

在世界大变局中,战后国际格局重大变化的主要标志是“世界老二”易位。苏联、日本皆不例外;21世纪以来欧盟也由盛转衰。未来国际格局可能有三种前景:1.中美两极对抗体制;2.中美竞争合作的“两极多元体制”;3.世界各大力量多元并存,构建多元一体的人类命运共同体。这要看世界潮流是走向和平多边主义还是暴力多边主义。中国实现伟大复兴后的战略选择是“济弱扶倾”,为世界可持续发展与可持续安全做贡献。日本面临的战略选择是:继续在《日本国宪法》下走和平发展道路,还是修改宪法,成为“能战国家”的一员,加入暴力强权的多边主义?坚持开放的地区主义与国际协调,还是搞排他经济集团,远交近攻,以中国为竞争对手?利用中美对立从中渔利,还是促进中美协调而避免在中美之间“选边站”?妥善处理中日两国围绕钓鱼岛归属认知争议和台湾问题,还是重走历史老路?囿于冷战思维和传统权力政治的现实主义决策逻辑,同中国搞战略对抗,还是树立共同、综合、合作、可持续安全的新安全观,与中国加强合作?这些战略选择将关乎未来30年的中日关系。     

中美不对称核稳定与美国战略机会主义论析

中美两国安全关系在两国总体关系中扮演着重要的角色,研究中美之间的战略稳定关系,对于维护两国安全关系的稳定具有重要意义。中国的核威慑实力弱于美国,中美之间呈现出不同于传统战略稳定关系的不对称核稳定态势。中国对美国存在一定的核威慑能力,但有效性仍有差距和不足。这一差距容易使美国产生压制和削弱中国核报复能力的机会主义思想。实施限制损伤战略、发展导弹防御能力、进行战略反潜是美国对中国实施战略机会主义的主要行动。美国谋求削弱中国核报复能力、打破中美不对称核稳定的企图,与中国努力维持核威慑能力、维持中美不对称核稳定的行为形成了两股力量相持的态势。中国应重点提升核武器的质量,提高威慑信号的传递效能,以可信可靠的核威慑和核反击能力打消美国战略机会主义心态,维持两国间的战略稳定,特别是危机稳定性,筑牢遏制战争爆发的基础。     

美国气候战略及中美气候合作北大核心

当前全球气候危机加速演进,气候变化与国际战略深度融合,全球气候治理进入大变局和秩序重塑的关键时期。美国拜登政府重启气候新议程,将气候变化议题提升至美国国家安全与外交政策的中心地位,其战略目标是在全球气候权力重组、气候安全体系重构、气候治理秩序重塑中争夺主导权,拜登政府的气候战略框架已基本成型。统筹应对美国气候战略竞争风险和深入推进COP26后中美气候外交,关系到国际安全体系与全球气候治理新秩序的构建。中美唯有良性互动、拓展合作空间才能维护国际安全及人类在21世纪的可持续发展。