Population: fiction and fact

This article was written to refute some common misunderstandings regarding worldwide population levels and worldwide nutrition levels. The world food supply is able to keep pace with high population growth levels. Worl food production currently meets world need; the problem is a distribution system which allocates food only to those who can pay rather than to those who need it. In many developing countries, the best agricultural lands are reserved for commercial crops rather than for subsistence crops. The U.S. food aid program does not help the most needy nations generally. The rate of world population growth is already slowing down. The desire for large families in developing countries is very often a realistic reaction to the prevailing economic system. Family planning programs will succeed. They will succeed even better in countries where general development planning is undertaken concurrently with family planning. Environmental problems are attributable to the consumption explosion in the rich countries rather than to the population explosion in the poor countries.     

U.S.Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy and China's Coping Strategy

Deterrence and coercion are two kinds of strategies,the latter being more aggressive than the former.The U.S.Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy is an important diplomatic legacy of Obama's administration.For the issues involving the Diaoyu Islands,the South China Sea,cyber security,DPRK's nuclear program,and Iran's nuclear program,the U.S.has carded out military deterrence and non-force coercion against China.But generally,these are low-level coercive measures and distinct from the severe economic sanction and diplomatic isolation imposed by the U.S.on Russia,Syria,DPRK and Iran in recent years.Concerning issues where the U.S.and China hold distinct views,there would be less strategic leeway for the two countries.If the U.S.is to strengthen deterrence and coercion towards China,China can respond more actively and effectively,but it will be more difficult to build a new model of China-U.S.major-country relationship.     

A population policy and a development policy are one and the same thing. An introduction to World Population Year

The disappointing results of many family planning programs in developing countries can be traced to the fallacious assumption that most poor people want smaller families. In fact, many poor people want large families. This is largely a response to economic conditions. Large numbers of children are considered necessary to provide support for their parents in old age, help with chores, and contribute to the family's income. If the problem is viewed as not only population but also poverty, then the solution becomes not only contraception but also social and economic development. Increasing equality of income distribution and access to social services is the major factor in both promoting development and reducing the birth rate. There is empirical evidence that significant falls in the birth rate occur only when the standard of living rises substantially for the majority of the population. Improvements in socioeconomic conditions can remove the need for large families. Thus, a development policy and a population policy are 1 and the same thing, and more equitable income distribution is the key to both.     

U.S. Foreign Aid and UN Voting: An Analysis of Important Issues

Many previous studies assessed the effectiveness of U.S. foreign aid by focusing on voting coincidence rates of all UN votes and found no relationship between U.S. aid distribution and UN voting coincidence rates. Most UN resolutions, however, are simply not important enough for the U.S. to expend its scarce resources in influencing the outcomes. The U.S. government would not be likely to exercise pressure on all UN resolutions but would do so on issues considered vital to America's national interests. If there is any effect from receiving U.S. foreign aid on political outcomes in the UN, it is therefore most likely to emerge in voting coincidence rates on important issues. Using data collected for sixty-five developing countries between 1984 and 1993, a pooled cross-sectional and time-series research design is adopted to examine this hypothesis. Contrary to the argument that foreign aid is an ineffective policy instrument in the pursuit of America's global influence, the currentfindings suggest that the U.S. government has successfully utilized foreign aid programs to induce foreign policy compliance in the UN on issues that are vital to America's national interests.     

The effects of IMF programs on U.S. foreign direct investment in the developing world

Given the popular wisdom that the U.S. government influences IMF policies and tends to support the business community, it might be expected that IMF programs benefit U.S. firms abroad and thus borrower nations are attractive destinations for U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI). Surprisingly, no study has tested the impact of IMF loans on U.S. FDI. Controlling for common explanations in the literature, we use a treatment effects model and interviews with IMF staff researchers to investigate whether countries under different kinds of IMF programs receive more U.S. FDI than countries not under IMF arrangements. Using panel data for 126 developing countries from 1980 to 2003, we find that IMF borrowers tend to be more attractive to U.S. investors but not all IMF programs have the same effect. Our findings suggest that differences in loan duration, the extent of borrower input in policy decisions, and loan amounts affect borrowers’ leverage with the Fund and the U.S.     

Better safe than sorry

Many women in developing countries would rather risk an unwanted pregnancy than put up with the side effects of efficient contraceptive methods. 40-70% of Third World users abandon use of oral contraceptives and the IUD within 2 years because of side effects. An additional 25-33% of women do not use contraceptives at all because of a fear of side effects. In part, this reflects the tendency of pharmaceutical firms and health staff to avoid discussing the side effects of modern contraceptives with Third World women, out of concern this will keep them away from family planning clinics. Without proper information, women become suspicious they are being manipulated or interpret unrelated symptoms as due to contraception. Another reason for low rates of acceptance of modern contraceptive methods is the failure of family planning programs to match the contraceptive prescribed to the needs of the acceptor. Women who want a number of children, for example, should not be given a method such as the IUD or injectables that may interfere with future fertility. In a village in Bangladesh, the birth rate actually went up after the pill was introduced because it interfered with lactation and was abandoned by 80% of initial acceptors. Ironically, there is evidence that efficient methods turn out to be less efficient in preventing births than their traditional counterparts such as the widely acceptable coitus interruptus method.     

Toward a world population program

Problems facing the less developed countries in the field of family planning are inadequate funds, weak administration, insufficient personnel, and sometimes lack of governmental will. To close the "family planning gap," the gap between the number of married women who now have access to modern birth control techniques and the number who would use them if given the opportunity, in the less-developed world as a whole would cost an estimated $3 billion ($2 billion if the People's Republic of China is excluded). The author develops 8 national and international guidelines for the tackling of the population problem. Among other points the guidelines state that assistance to a country in family planning should be solely at the request of that country and that national assistance should be related maximally to the work of international organizations. The history of United States and international efforts to deal with the world population crisis are detailed. During 1962-1967 the United States and the United Nations created decisive policies granting family-planning assistance to less-developed countries. The author urges a world population program, directed by the U.N. and financed by a special fund of voluntary contributions, to increase U.N. and regional economic commission staffs concerned with family planning, develop training centers for family planning personnel, and develop pilot or demonstration projects to get national or regional programs under way.     

奥巴马政府东亚政策的调整及中国的应对

对东亚政策的调整是奥巴马政府外交政策调整的主要方面。调整的内容包括,巩固与东亚盟国的关系,重视发展与东盟及东南亚国家的关系,而调整与中国政策的关系,无疑是美国东亚政策的核心。奥巴马政府对东亚政策的调整给中国外交政策带来了挑战,但如果处理得当,机遇明显大于挑战:美国东亚政策的调整可以促进中国推动国际秩序朝着更加公正合理方向发展的实践和规则的制定;为中美合作创造拓展更多的领域、提供更多的机会,特别是在非传统安全领域;也有利于中美关系的未来协调发展。     

Foreign Policy in Transition? Human Rights, Democracy, and U.S. Arms Exports

During the Cold War, U.S. foreign policy was dominated by the strategic goal to contain Communism. Human rights and democracy were of secondary importance. In the post-Cold War period, the promotion of human rights and democracy as foreign policy concerns rose in prominence. In the spirit of Andrew Pierre, who once characterized arms transfers as "foreign policy writ large ," this study questions whether the transfer of U.S. arms mirrors America's foreign policy goals. To what extent do U.S. arms transfers reflect a concern for human rights and democracy? As a foreign policy instrument, do U.S. arms transfer patterns mark a transition between Cold War and post-Cold War worlds? To address these questions, I examine the empirical linkage between U.S. foreign policy goals and arms export agreements with developing countries for the years 1981–2002. I use a two-stage model to evaluate the decision-making process. The first-stage addresses whether a country is eligible to receive U.S. arms. If a country successfully passes through the selection stage, it progresses to the second stage where a decision is made about the amount of arms transferred. I use a Heckman model to estimate empirically the determinants of arms at both the initial selection stage and the subsequent amount stage. The findings indicate that during the Cold War years, human rights were not a significant determinant of arms transfers—although democracy was positively linked to U.S. arms in the selection stage. In the post-Cold War period, both human rights and democracy had a meaningful impact in determining the eligibility of a country to receive arms.     

AFRICOM's Relationship to Oil, Terrorism and China

Why a combatant command for Africa? I argue that AFRICOM was formed to implement the U.S. national security strategy that seeks to strengthen states and eliminate ungoverned space, as well as establish relationships with African states that offer a means to greater state stability and foster economic development. In so doing, it counters global jihadist by denying them haven among weak governments or in ungoverned areas. It protects U.S. interests in resources by helping governments become more stable. And it competes with the Chinese approach that could worsen the status quo of ineffective states and ungoverned space. Indeed, the U.S. approach of increasing state effectiveness makes African countries less susceptible to the problems that may arise from the Chinese approach and so serves China's interests in access to natural resources.     

循环经济的理论思想渊源与实践——以美、日、德、中为例

循环经济理论思想源远流长。尽管在传统的经济发展模式中,人们在生产中不考虑资源环境方面的问题,但理论上的认识早就有之,这些理论是当今推行循环经济和进一步研究循环经济理论的重要依据。目前,发展循环经济已成为世界各国的共识,美、日、德率先行动,取得了宝贵经验。进入21世纪,中国也开始走循环经济发展之路,近年来,中国在发展循环经济方面正在加大力度,并取得了可喜的成果。集中各国经验,探索崭新的循环经济发展之路,是实现人与自然和谐发展的重要保证。     

大震荡、大变革的一年——2008年国际形势剖析

2008年重大国际事件频出：美国大选结果标志美国国内政治生活“新时代”的开始：金融危机沉重打击了现行国际金融体系,美国主导国际事务的能力进一步削弱;20国集团峰会凸显发展中新兴大国的作用,再次表明发展中国家成为推动多极化国际体系和秩序改革的主力军;俄格军事冲突严重影响大国关系和地缘政治格局。所有这些重大事件表明,世界多极化趋势不可阻挡。     

Raising and Mentoring Security Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan

The effort to raise host nation security forces was central to the U.S. strategy in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. poured massive resources into both countries. Unfortunately, U.S. planners failed to understand the cultural and political environments in which these forces would have to operate. Thus, the United States attempted to build ministries and forces based on U.S. models that simply were not appropriate for those nations. Although the training teams successfully recruited, trained, and deployed almost a million Afghans and Iraqis, Iraqi forces have collapsed and the Afghans are struggling to keep the insurgents at bay.     

The impact of instability and institutions on US foreign direct investment in developing areas

American investors locating in developing countries attempt to minimize uncertainty by selecting hosts with the weakest capacity for engaging in post-contractual opportunistic behavior such as expropriation. Analysis shows that international investors prefer countries with democratic institutions, in order to monitor and defend their capital. Foreign investors also prefer developing states with smaller militaries to reduce the amount of coercion potential the host government can wield against external capital. Yet political instability does not seem to affect foreign investments as expected. A rationale for this finding is that domestic disturbances do not necessarily target foreign investors or their operations.     

The small miracle

Although the standard argument for distributing birth control pills throughout the Third World is that they are less dangerous than pregnancy or abortion, irregular use of the pill increases riks of both. The irregularity of use can be attributed to both poor delivery systems and side effects. Side effects occur because of poor screening and lack of alternative dosages. Because of the lower price of buying in bulk, family planning groups distribute only 1 kind of pill. The woman who experiences side effects, e.g. headache, dizziness, weight gain, depression, has no choice but to discontinue use. Few women are screened by having their blood pressure taken, therefore the pill exacerbates illness in those with circulation problems. Breast-feeding mothers who take the pill provide less sustenance from their breastmilk, which can increase infant mortality rates. In Bangladesh a USAID-funded study on contractive distribution found that the "trained" family planning workers did not know what advice to give a woman who missed her pill on 5 consecutive days, or what type of side effects might be anticipated, or how many days after the onset of menstruation a woman should begin the pill. A more level headed approach to delivery of contraceptives in developing countries is needed.     

Impact of Political Risk on FDI Revisited—An Aggregate Firm-Level Analysis

Unlike previous studies on political risk and foreign direct investment (FDI) that used macro-level FDI data to test micro-level theories, I make use of aggregate data on U.S. firms' investment activities in 101 developing countries during the period 1997–2007 to reassess the propositions. Using a multilevel mixed-effects linear instrumental variable approach, I find that lower political risk is associated with (a) an increase in U.S. firms with equity stake of 51% and above, (b) a higher proportion of fixed assets, and (c) an increase in the return on investments, after controlling for a host of relevant factors. Further analysis reveals the relationship is also strong with respect to investments in total assets and sales. The results are robust to alternative data, instruments, and estimation techniques. These results bring to fore the multiple risk hedging strategies available for foreign firms operating in high risk environments.     

美国对俄罗斯投资的发展现状及特点分析

俄罗斯与美国作为世界的两个大国 ,双方的经济合作关系及其发展状况备受世人关注。特别是 90年代以来 ,俄美出于各自的需要 ,积极努力推动双方在投资领域的合作 ,取得了一定成效。从目前走势来看 ,美国经济将步入增长性衰退期 ,投资收益率的下降使得美国资本向外转移的可能性增大 ,这为俄美在经贸、投资等领域的进一步合作提供了契机     

从“重返”到“再平衡”——奥巴马政府第二任期的东南亚政策

美国总统奥巴马2009年上台后,对东南亚表现出浓厚的兴趣并高调"重返",推出了一系列加强在东南亚存在的举措。2013年连任后,他将在未来4年继续把东南亚作为"亚太再平衡"战略的着力点。同时,奥巴马政府意识到其东南亚政策也需要进行"再平衡",应放缓军事"重返"脚步,在经济、政治、安全等领域全方位投入,均衡化、长期化地推进东南亚外交。国内财政限制、中东等地区外交挑战和外交人员人事变动等因素会对美国新一届政府的东南亚外交有所制约,但其未来政策走向仍将对中国周边外交和中美关系产生持续影响。     

东北亚各国对俄罗斯远东地区的投资问题

俄罗斯远东地区地域辽阔，自然资源极其丰富，因此拥有吸引外资的资源优势，但由于存在不利于外商投资的诸多因素．吸引外资工作遇到困难。对俄罗斯远东地区进行投资的主要是东北亚各国。从投资规模、投资项目来看，日本在远东地区的投资堪称第一。韩国同俄罗斯的经贸合作Ｍ１９９１年起一直呈上升态势，两国计划在纳霍德卡自由经济区建Ｌ业园区。中国在远东地区有很多中资企业。但规模都比较小，且大多从事贸易。对世纪由于远东地区的自然资源具有独特的价值。东北亚各国将会以更高的热情开发它。     

Origins of Regime Change: “Ideapolitik” on the Long Road to Baghdad, 1993–2000

How was the ouster of Saddam Hussein defined as the solution to America's Iraq problem? Current scholarship on the U.S. invasion of Iraq tends to focus on the post-9/11 road to war, promoting models of policy capture, intelligence manipulation, threat-inflation, or rhetorical coercion of Bush administration opponents. In this essay, I trace the “Ideapolitik” of regime change in the 1990s and show that Bush's post-9/11 rhetoric was firmly embedded in a preexisting foreign policy consensus defining Saddam Hussein as the “problem” and his overthrow as its “solution.” Drawing upon recent research in international relations and public policy, I show how the idea of regime change prevailed in redefining American strategy for Iraq. While the September 11, 2001 attacks had important effects on the Bush administration's willingness to use force, the basic idea that ousting Saddam Hussein would solve the Iraq problem was already embedded in elite discourse. Saddam Hussein's ouster was not simply the result of idiosyncratic or nefarious decision-making processes within the Bush administration, but was instead the realization of a social choice made by U.S. foreign policy elites well before George W. Bush came to power.