International cooperation in locating and recovering stolen nuclear materials

Abstract

With the expansion of terrorist activities in the last fifteen years there has been increasing concern that groups might be able to steal nuclear materials and use nuclear weapons for terrorist purposes. The last fifteen years have also seen growing criminal activity in the nuclear domain including thefts of nuclear material, attacks on nuclear facilities, and threats against American cities, although these latter threats turned out to be hoaxes. Nuclear experts have stated that a relatively few technicians could fabricate a nuclear bomb. The principal impediment is access to nuclear material. Although terrorists usually would not be able to further their aims by threats of mass destruction, it is increasingly conceivable that some group might go for the nuclear jackpot. Congress has recently passed legislation designed to protect nuclear materials and to make nuclear thefts and threats subject to severe penalties. This legislation is geared into a recent U.N. convention providing for international cooperation on protecting nuclear materials for peaceful purposes and prosecuting nuclear crimes. Action still needs to be taken, however, to implement a 1982 Nunn Amendment to the Defense Appropriations Bill which calls for the Secretary of Defense to make a study of the feasibility of a nuclear crisis control center for sharing information and monitoring nuclear incidents. The center would help contain such incidents and prevent them from escalating into an international crisis.     

A New Posture of International Arms Control and Disarmament

About one year on,international arms control and disarmament appeared to be rebounding to become an issue of great international attention,paralleling the issues of financial crisis and climate change.International nuclear disarmament re-dawned with high profile readjustments by the United States in its nuclear arms control policy and tactics.The US and Russia signed a new agreement of bilateral nuclear disarmament.Multilateral nuclear arms control has also softened,and the nuclear security issue loomed large.The Conference on the Review of Nuclear Non-proliferation was held,the main illustration of the adjustment by the US to its arms control policy and tactics.On balance,however,the US arms control and disarmament policies remain largely rhetorical,as its two strategic objectives of nuclear weapon policy--nuclear deterrence and non-proliferation--has been kept intact,and even intensified.     

Japan Risks Nuclear Disaster for Consumer Convenience

Months after the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the real truth hidden by incompetence and dissembling by Japanese authorities has emerged: Three of the four nuclear power plants at Fukushima suffered a meltdown. Japan's leading anti‐nuclear crusader and two French public figures worried about the impact on the future of nuclear technology respond.     

The Japanese Nuclear Industry: A Regrettable Exception

Months after the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the real truth hidden by incompetence and dissembling by Japanese authorities has emerged: Three of the four nuclear power plants at Fukushima suffered a meltdown. Japan's leading anti‐nuclear crusader and two French public figures worried about the impact on the future of nuclear technology respond.     

Critical Misunderstandings: Ineffective International Governance and the UK Nuclear Industry

In 2017, significant media and political interest was sparked by the UK decision to leave Euratom, the European Atomic Energy Community. While such interest in nuclear matters has to be welcomed, the apparent lack of knowledge displayed in the regulatory governance of the UK nuclear industry is disquieting. This article therefore offers an overview of the publicly funded UK nuclear industry and its regulatory governance including its links with European and global nuclear agencies to inform the debate and to identify critical issues in need of resolution.     

Control,Historic Pitfalls,and the UK Nuclear Renaissance

In September 2015, the UK government announced that future taxpayers will underwrite the construction of two European-designed nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point in Somerset. Partly financed by Chinese utility companies, this announcement presents a fait accompli with little democratic input. Few, if any, historic lessons evident from previous attempts to manage its nuclear industry appear to have been learnt. This paper discusses the announcement with reference to the governance of the UK’s historic nuclear legacy—specifically dealing with control, stakeholder engagement, and transparency—and its implications for a nuclear renaissance.     

美国核能辩论现状与核能政策前景

美国国内在利用核电问题上一直存在争议,拥核派和反核派的分歧主要是在核电成本、核能安全以及核能是否环保等方面。受今年3月日本核危机影响,美国反核势力上升,核能辩论的重点转向核能安全,具体体现在核电站抵御灾害、核废料储存、新建核电站以及现有核电站延长运营期限等议题上。受此影响,短期内美国核能开发速度会放慢,但奥巴马政府的核能政策不会作出实质性调整。     

Who Supports Nuclear Armament in Japan? Threat Perceptions and Japan's Nuclear Armament

The security environment in East Asia has been going through drastic changes. As China and North Korea pose a serious threat to Japan, the Japanese are now more concerned about the security issue in the region. Recognizing the highly volatile situation Japan is facing, the purpose of this study is to examine the issue of nuclear proliferation by focusing on people's attitudes in Japan. More specifically, it systematically analyzes the factors that can determine people's opinions of nuclear weapons by utilizing the survey data. The result of the statistical analysis suggests that threat perceptions significantly boost people's support for nuclear armament. Advancing our understanding of nuclear proliferation from a unique perspective, this study makes an important contribution to the literature, thus helping us predict Japan's security policy.     

Security dilemmas of nuclear-armed Pakistan

Pakistan's security environment has deteriorated through its adoption of a declared nuclear weapons posture in May 1998. Internal fissures have widened along regional and sectarian lines as the Pakistani economy falters, unable to sustain even limited external sanctions following decades of internal mismanagement. Tensions with India have also increased as Pakistan's security managers adopt interventionist policies, based on a misplaced belief in the deterrent value of nuclear weapons. The international community, in particular, the USA's failure to reverse South Asian nuclear proliferation, has emboldened Indian advocates of nuclear deployment. If India deploys nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, Pakistan will follow suit. Operation-ready nuclear weapons will increase the prospects of an India - Pakistan conflict that could assume a nuclear dimension. Pakistan's nuclear weapons capability will not prevent an Indian conventional attack nor will the presence of nuclear weapons deter an Indian accidental, unauthorised or preventive nuclear attack. Changed domestic and external priorities alone can buttress Pakistani security.     

After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects

It is just possible that a terrorist nuclear attack could catalyze an inter-state nuclear war. The likelihood of a terrorist group gaining access to nuclear weapons is lower than some fear, and terrorists might not use a nuclear weapon as soon as they had acquired one. But if a terrorist group was to explode a nuclear device in a country that was itself armed with nuclear weapons, and especially if that country was in a conflict-prone relationship with another nuclear-armed state, the broader consequences of even a single terrorist nuclear detonation could be much more serious than some assume.     

A look inside an emerging nuclear supplier. Advocacy coalitions and change in Argentine foreign nuclear policy

What light can foreign policy analysis (FPA) shed on how and when the balance of power between domestic coalitions in foreign nuclear policymaking changes and how these different balances directly affect policy outcomes? Drawing on interviews with scientists, technologists and career diplomats, this comprehensive examination of Argentine nuclear exports policy as public policy aims to depict when and how policies varied between 1976 and 2004, due to shifts in the balance amongst advocacy coalitions, albeit of incentives and constraints placed by international and institutional nuclear environments. The article provides a better account of how Argentine nuclear foreign policy changed under the influence of four competitive and contrasting advocacy coalitions: the pro-import substitution and protectionist coalition, the pro-technological autonomy and South-South trade coalition, the pro-business and commercial openness coalition and the antinuclear and pro-environment coalition.     

The Fall and Rise of State Capabilities in the Management of the UK Nuclear Legacy

In 2015 and 2017, two large contracts for nuclear decommissioning were terminated early by the UK Government. Rather than re-tender, Government took direct ownership and control of Sellafield and began an inquiry into other sites’ management. The problems with the contract model for management of the UK’s nuclear legacy stem from an inability to adequately specify contracts in uncertain environments. The embrace of management and operations contracts for all sites after nationalized ownership limited the range of “tools” to manage the nuclear legacy. This highlights the role of state capabilities alongside incentivized private sector relationships in contemporary governance.     

试析朝鲜半岛核问题与中国的政策走势

当前,朝鲜半岛形势由于朝鲜最高领导人金正日突然逝世、国家全面进入权力过渡阶段而充满不确定性。在朝鲜权力交替的敏感时期,各方为恢复六方会谈、重启半岛无核化进程进行的积极努力受此影响而放缓。朝鲜寻求核武器既是朝鲜半岛南北长期敌对、朝美间的冲突所铸安全困境之果,也是引发东北亚地区更大范围动荡的诱因,并且由于朝鲜权力交替蕴含的潜在风险,核危机对东北亚地区安全构成的威胁在增大。针对半岛核问题,中国政府一直通过双边和多边渠道发挥着稳定地区局势、推动半岛无核化的积极作用。结合朝鲜半岛形势的变化,在客观分析东北亚地区战略格局的基础上,中国政府将围绕维护半岛和平稳定和实现半岛无核化这两大战略目标继续作出更大的努力。     

African agency and global orders: the demanding case of nuclear arms control

Abstract

How much agency do African states have to shape global orders? This study puts the global nuclear order under scrutiny to answer this question. It amounts to a demanding case. Arms control is something that global great powers take very seriously, and there is no weapons category that they take more seriously than nuclear weapons. My findings provide a nuanced picture. Although often outflanked and frustrated by nuclear weapon states, the nuclear order would look different without African actors exerting their agency. They successfully shaped background and foreground institutions constituting the global nuclear order by building advocacies for new institutions upon already existing ones, reaching out to state and non-state actors outside of Africa, and channelling communication through African states with authority in global fora. This study makes three contributions: First, it underlines the key finding of recent literature on African agency that African actors are more to be reckoned with than often assumed. Second, it provides novel evidence about the diplomatic mechanisms through which they come to make a difference. Third, it adds to our grasp of the constitution of global orders as well as the processes through which they come to be made, re-made and unmade more generally.     

核武器与冷战时期美国对苏联的政策

冷战时期,作为维护国家安全的重要工具,核武器在美国对苏联的政策中发挥了重要作用。美国政府不仅在战后初期坚持核保密政策,而且还多次利用核武器对苏联施加压力,以迫使其在政治上和外交上做出让步,并制定了一系列针对苏联的核作战计划。与此同时,为了保持对苏联的核优势地位,对苏联构成有效的威慑,美国政府不断加强核力量的建设,使得美苏之间的核军备竞赛愈演愈烈,并使双方走到了核战争的边缘,从而使得美苏决策者都认识到,限制核军备竞赛对双方至关重要,美苏关系也由此进入了相对缓和的时期。及至20世纪70年代,限制战略武器谈判成为美国对苏政策的重要内容。     

American culpability: the Bush Administration and the Iranian nuclear impasse

Drawing on the memoirs of Hassan Rowhani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator (2003–2005) and newly elected president, this paper considers the impact of the Bush Administration's Iran policy on the internal politics of the Islamic Republic and the dynamics of its nuclear negotiation strategy. It argues that the administration had a detrimental effect on international nuclear negotiations with Iran and should be considered at least partially responsible for the current nuclear impasse. Identifying three key areas, it focuses on the administration's rejection of constructive engagement with the relatively moderate government of President Mohammad Khatami; the negative influence of the USA during Iran's nuclear negotiations with the EU3; and the administration's refusal to provide the Iranians with confidence-building incentives, or countenance unconditional nuclear talks, despite a policy change in Washington that was ostensibly multilateralist and gave the impression of directly engaging with the Iranians.     

Iran's nuclear programme and the west

Judged by the media reports and statements by US officials in recent months, the USA is seriously considering, or at least thinking about, taking military action against Iran, if it refuses to forgo its legal right to enrich uranium for its nuclear energy programme, which Washington claims is a cover for making nuclear weapons. Iran denies the allegation. The effects of such an attack on Iranian society and the political ramifications beyond Iran's borders are discussed and analysed here. The irony of the present dispute between the West and Iran is that, for three decades up to the Iranian revolution in 1979, the Europeans and Americans helped, in fact earnestly encouraged, Iran in the development of its nuclear programme. The article explains the reasons for the failure of talks between Iran and the European trio to resolve the issue. It argues that, even if the question of Iran's nuclear programme were resolved, the 27-year conflict between the two countries would be unlikely to end in the near future. For Washington the name of the game is ‘regime change’ in Iran, either through military means or through fomenting internal chaos, hoping for implosion. But considering the political and military difficulties that Washington is experiencing in Afghanistan and Iraq, achieving either of these options is highly problematic.     

Nuclear terrorism: Threat,perception, and response in South Asia

Abstract

This paper seeks to answer the question: What should be done in South Asia in response to the dangers of nuclear blackmail and terrorism? The relevance of the recommendations of the Nuclear Control Institute's International Task Force on Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism is explored. The authors examine conventional terrorism in the context of increased nuclear activities and provide an overview of recent nuclear developments in the region. Policy recommendations are given, and specific proposals are made to counter the threats of nuclear blackmail and terrorism.     

Die and Let Die: Exploring Links between Suicide Terrorism and Terrorist Use of Chemical,Biological, Radiological,and Nuclear Weapons

The use of suicide bombings by some organizations is often presented as evidence of eroding constraints among terrorists to use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapons. Besides a possibly more reckless approach to violence resulting from the weakened instinct of self-preservation, it is clear that suicide delivery of such weapons would have great tactical advantages over other forms of delivery. This article explores the often neglected nuances of contemporary suicide terrorism to explain why this practice does not necessarily make a mass-casualty chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear attack by a terrorist group more likely.     

The United States–India Nuclear Relations after 9/11: Alternative Discourses

Abstract

In this article, I go beyond the conventional realist arguments of anarchy, national interest, and nuclear security to offer alternative discourses of the same as applied in the context of US–India nuclear relations after 9/11. To this extent, I draw from feminist International Relations, that security is a gendered phenomenon, to explore how the post-9/11 climate of globalization has served as the context within which are articulated masculinist forms of nuclear discourses between India and the United States. Furthermore, considering issues of international hierarchy and power relations between India and United States, I also draw from Edward Said's Orientalism to explore how assumptions of Orientalism are also sustained in these masculinist nuclear discourses. My contribution in this article lies in offering an alternative feminist and post-colonial perspective to comprehend that nuclear security discourses are not only about objective realist/neoliberal issues of insecurity and strategic interdependence but also contain subjective implications that sustain masculinist and orientalist forms of identity-making in international politics.