A Solution to Separation in Binary Response Models

A common problem in models for dichotomous dependent variablesis "separation," which occurs when one or more of a model'scovariates perfectly predict some binary outcome. Separationraises a particularly difficult set of issues, often forcingresearchers to choose between omitting clearly important covariatesand undertaking post–hoc data or estimation corrections.In this article I present a method for solving the separationproblem, based on a penalized likelihood correction to the standardbinomial GLM score function. I then apply this method to datafrom an important study on the postwar fate of leaders.     

Evaluating Capital Management: A New Approach

The objective of this article is to develop a methodology for evaluating capital management performance. We have employed a new methodology, fuzzy rule–based systems (FRBS), that allows evaluators to break down complex systems into manageable components. FRBS can also use a variety of data types by converting data into ordinal input measures that are not overly sensitive to small measurement errors. In developing an overall performance measure, the evaluator under an FRBS creates explicit rules for combining inputs that can reflect the complex contextual judgments commonly made by evaluators. Using survey data on 35 large American cities from the Government Performance Project, we develop an FRBS for city capital management.     

Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models

Curtis S. Signorino 303 Harkness Hall, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627 e-mail: curt.signorino{at}rochester.edu Robert W. Walker Department of Political Science, Center for Applied Statistics, Washington University in Saint Louis, Campus Box 1063, One Brookings Drive, St. Louis, MO 63130 e-mail: rww{at}wustl.edu e-mail: mbas{at}gov.harvard.edu (corresponding author) We present a simple method for estimating regressions basedon recursive extensive-form games. Our procedure, which canbe implemented in most standard statistical packages, involvessequentially estimating standard logits (or probits) in a manneranalogous to backwards induction. We demonstrate that the techniqueproduces consistent parameter estimates and show how to calculateconsistent standard errors. To illustrate the method, we replicateLeblang's (2003) study of speculative attacks by financial marketsand government responses to these attacks. Authors' note: Our thanks to Kevin Clarke, John Londregan, JeffRitter, Ahmer Tarar, and Kuzey Yilmaz for helpful discussionsconcerning this paper. A previous version was presented at the2002 Political Methodology Summer Meeting.     

Less Haste,More Speed: The Fit for the Future Reform Program in New South Wales Local Government

In August 2011 the New South Wales (NSW) Government established the Independent Local Government Review Panel to examine the options for improving the sustainability of the NSW local government sector. In October 2014 the NSW Government set out its response in its Fit for the Future reform program. This paper provides a critical assessment of the Fit for the Future program. We show that it contains errors, relies on unreliable data, and neglects important factors, which may be ascribed to the haste with which it has been constructed. This could have serious consequences given the potential impact the Fit for the Future program will have on NSW local government. We thus conclude that it would be prudent to address these matters before proceeding further with the program.     

评估政府绩效评估:元评估方法的探索性应用

元评估是对评估活动的再评估,对于评价评估活动的价值和缺陷、引导评估活动具有重要的作用。使用元评估方法分析政府绩效评价活动,需对元评估的主要程序、元评估指标和分析框架、以及元评估的分析方法进行设计。典型案例研究表明,元评估的理论和方法在改善政府绩效评估活动、识别“最佳评估模式”等方面具有一定的应用价值。     

A Unified Method for Dynamic and Cross‐Sectional Heterogeneity: Introducing Hidden Markov Panel Models

Conventional statistical methods for panel data are based on the assumption that unobserved heterogeneity is time constant. Despite the central importance of this assumption for panel data methods, few studies have developed statistical methods for testing this assumption and modeling time‐varying unobserved heterogeneity. In this article, I introduce a formal test to check the assumption of time‐constant unobserved heterogeneity using Bayesian model comparison. Then, I present two panel data methods that account for time‐varying unobserved heterogeneity in the context of the random‐effects model and the fixed‐effects model, respectively. I illustrate the utility of the introduced methods using both simulated data and examples drawn from two important debates in the political economy literature: (1) the identification of shifting relationships between income inequality and economic development in capitalist countries and (2) the effects of the GATT/WTO on bilateral trade volumes.     

Evaluating development assistance: A review of the literature

Three phases of development of the subject of evaluation are identified. Up to 1979 it was still in its infancy, with the main impetus coming from the USA (the World Bank and US AID), and from one or two large UN organizations, although the OECD also did some useful work in bringing evaluators together. The second phase (1979-1984) saw rapid ‘take-off’, with greatly increased resources going into evaluation work, and a veritable ‘explosion’ of interest worldwide. All the main donors had by now set up evaluation units and were amassing enough material to begin to ‘synthesize’ the findings. The OECD provided a focus and a forum through its Expert Group on Aid Evaluation. The third phase, from 1984 onwards, finds the subject having ‘come of age’, its maturity being marked by the publication of major works such as Cassen's Does Aid Work?. The emphasis now is switching from ex-post evaluation towards improving project design through such techniques as the logical framework.     

Models of Capitalism in the New World Order: the UK Case

In the debate over economic performance which has preoccupied UK policy makers for the last four decades, foreign 'models' of more successful capitalisms elsewhere have been an important point of reference. Those models have been variously market-led (USA), state-led (Japan) or negotiated/consensual (Germany/Sweden). Of late the UK's own internal economic and social settlement has itself been offered as a viable model for once successful foreign economies now in competitive difficulties. The key features of these various models are analysed, and the UK's changing post-war position on the map of models is traced. The changing fortunes of these models are then related to developments in the global economy; and an assessment made of the adequacy (and desirability) of the kind of economic order now being canvassed in the UK by the present Labour Government.     

The Morphology of the Labour Party's One Nation Narrative: Story,Plot and Authorship

By applying narrative theory to the party political texts emerging within the UK Labour Party after 2010, which make up the corpus of One Nation discourse, we can grasp the underlying significance of this ideational revision of Labour Party and leftist thought. Through an identification and analysis of the sequence of texts and their constitution as a “story” that interpolates an underlying “plot,” we can see how a revision of Labour's “tale” offers to leadership a new party discourse appropriate to it, mediating—if not reconciling—the problematic duality of narrative authorship by both party and leader.     

The Council for the Australian Federation: A New Structure of Australian Federalism

In October 2006, state premiers and territory chief ministers gathered in Melbourne for the first meeting of the Council for the Australian Federation (CAF). This little‐heralded event marked the beginning of the first formalised structure for state and territory only collaboration since Federation. This article describes the genesis and creation of this new structural response to ongoing state concerns about the trend to an increasingly centralised pattern of Commonwealth‐state relations. It identifies the intended functions of the Council, which include: acting as a mechanism for coordinating approaches to negotiations with the Commonwealth; operating as a clearing house for policy ideas in Australia and internationally; harmonising regulatory frameworks; and developing improvements to service delivery in areas of state responsibility. Informed by interviews with key players involved with its establishment and documentary sources, this article assesses CAF's performance during its first 18 months of operation. It explores the hopes and aspirations of key CAF stakeholders, and some of the issues that have confronted the fledgling organisation. Personnel changes among the cohort of state and territory leaders, and the election of a federal Labor government in November 2007 have altered the dynamics of CAF. The article argues that CAF's emergence is an attempt by sub‐national governments to develop new capacity and leverage to address the asymmetries that characterise contemporary Australian federalism. However, there are questions about CAF's future, particularly about state and territory governments' capacity to pursue collaborative agendas given the pace and scope of Kevin Rudd's ‘new federalism’ reforms and the demands it is placing on their policy and administrative systems.     

Fit for the Job: Candidate Qualifications and Vote Choice in Low Information Elections

Cues and heuristics—like party, gender, and race/ethnicity—help voters choose among a set of candidates. We consider candidate professional experience—signaled through occupation—as a cue that voters can use to evaluate candidates’ functional competence for office. We outline and test one condition under which citizens are most likely to use such cues: when there is a clear connection between candidate qualifications and the particular elected office. We further argue that voters in these contexts are likely to make subtle distinctions between candidates, and to vote accordingly. We test our account in the context of local school board elections, and show—through both observational analyses of California election results and a conjoint experiment—that (1) voters favor candidates who work in education; (2) that voters discriminate even among candidates associated with education by only favoring those with strong ties to students; and (3) that the effects are not muted by partisanship. Voters appear to value functional competence for office in and of itself, and use cues in the form of candidate occupation to assess who is and who is not fit for the job.

     

读报教育:新时期大学生思想教育手段的探索

首先通过与媒介素养教育的联系与区别、国内外发展现状及对读报教育的概念进行阐述,然后描述了当前我国大学生的发展特点与高校思想教育手段存在的问题,进而提出读报教育对我国新时期大学生思想教育手段的探索.     

The Options for Devolution Finance: The Choices for the New Government

The debate about the financing of devolved government in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland has acquired a new vigour since 2007, with commissions and reviews taking place in Scotland, Wales and at Westminster. Although of considerable constitutional as well as political importance, the technical detail has obscured many of the wider issues involved. This paper surveys the options now open to the UK government, as it prepares its response to the Welsh Holtham Commission, a bill implementing the Calman Commission's recommendations for Scotland, and looks at ways of altering corporation tax in Northern Ireland. It examines six options that in principle are open to the UK government, and argues that the range of options open to the UK government are narrower than they often appear, and that pressure for it to act is such that it will no longer be possible to avoid far‐reaching action.     

Framing the Oxymoron: A New Paradigm for Intelligence Ethics

Despite some arguments to the contrary, I argue that because ethics benefit, rather than harm, the intelligence profession they should be considered an inherent part of intelligence studies. The literature largely presents intelligence ethics as a two-sided debate between teleologists and deontologists. I propose that ethical justifications should instead be considered along a progressive spectrum drawn from the work of moral psychologist Lawrence Kohlberg. Such a spectrum has numerous applications for gauging the moral arguments of individual practitioners of intelligence. I illustrate this using the dilemma of targeted political assassination – first in a hypothetical context, and finally using examples from the investigations of the 1975 Church Committee.