The Effect of Tax and Expenditure Limitations on Revenue Volatility: Evidence from Colorado

Much of the research on tax and expenditure limitations (TELs) focuses on the impact that limits have on the size of the public sector or the distribution of expenditures at the state and local levels. While these results shed light on the extent to which TELs succeed in reducing government spending, they do not have much to say about the impact of TELs on government budgeting or financial planning, despite the fact that voters support TELs in the hope of reducing government inefficiency (Courant, Gramlich, and Rubinfeld 1980; Ladd and Wilson 1982). This paper examines the effect of TELs on the stability of government revenues; sound tax policy entails controlling the volatility of revenues in order to plan more effectively for the future. Using panel data from Colorado's Division of Local Government as well as the Census Bureau's Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances, this paper examines the impact of Colorado's 1992 Taxpayer's Bill of Rights (TABOR) on local government finances. Results from difference‐in‐difference estimation suggest that TELs increase revenue and expenditure volatility.     

Tax Base Composition and Revenue Volatility: Evidence from the U.S. States

This study examines the effect of tax base composition on revenue volatility, with focus on state general sales tax and individual income tax. In doing so, extensive historical data (1992–2007) are presented on state taxation of various categories of sales and incomes that exhibit wide cross‐state variations in taxable status, and revenue volatility is measured using the deviation‐from‐trend approach. Models of sales and income tax volatility are estimated using pooled OLS, and the analyses reveal that revenue volatility is significantly affected by how the tax base is composed. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications of the results.     

The Impact of Tax Revenue from Capital Gains Realizations on State Income Tax Revenue and Budget Conditions

We explore the effect of the rapid increase in capital gains realizations on state income tax revenue during the 1990s and 2000s, and the effect that this had on state fiscal decisions regarding the use of these revenue. We find wide variation in the growth of capital gains realizations across states and that the growth in capital gains had a significant effect on state income tax revenue for many states. We find that states used a sizable portion of the additional revenue from capital gains to fund reserves in the year the revenue was generated, and that capital gains revenue lead to some reductions in taxes but not to increases in expenditures. The evidence suggests that states were conservative in their use of capital gains related revenues.     

关于教师质量及其评估研究的综述

对教师质量的研究认识会对质量的评估产生影响。梳理了教师质量以及教师质量评估的相关文献,以求对教师质量加深认识,并为提高教师质量,科学评估提出思考及启示。启示有二:教师质量包含的内容广泛;教师质量的评估应多样化。     

The Revenue Impact of Repeated Tax Amnesties

Proponents argue that tax amnesties raise revenue both in the short and long run, by bringing former nonfilers back into the tax system. Opponents contend that amnesties produce little short‐run revenue and weaken incentives for long‐run tax compliance. However, over the last 21 years, 27 states offered tax amnesties for a second or third time. While previous research has estimated the impact of specific tax amnesties, none have estimated how the impact changes when offered repeatedly. We find that these additional tax amnesties generate less short‐run revenue than predecessors and tend to magnify revenue losses associated with disincentives for long‐run tax compliance.     

完善地方税收法律体系的相关问题

本对完善地方税收法律体系的相关问题进行了讨论，认为：走出思想认识上的误区，是完善地方税收法律体系的前提；理顺中央与地方的财政关系，是完善地方税收法律体系的基础和保障；优化地方税种配置，是完善地方税收法律体系的中心内容；建立统一的、多层级的地方税收规范体系，是当前完善地方税收法律体系的首要任务。     

The Politics of Forecast Bias: Forecaster Effect and Other Effects in New York City Revenue Forecasting

This paper examines the impact of forecasters, horizons, revenue categories, and forecast timing in relation to decision making on forecast bias or accuracy. The significant findings are: for the most part forecasters tend to report forecasts that are similar rather than competitive. Forecast bias (underforecasting) increases over longer horizons; consequently claims of structural budget deficit are suspect, as an assertion of structural deficit requires that a reliable forecast of revenue shows continuous shortfall compared with a reliable forecast of expenditures. There is an overforecasting bias in property tax, possibly reflecting demand for services. There is an underforecasting forecast bias in two revenue categories, all other taxes and federal categorical grants, resulting in a net total underforecasting bias for the city's revenue. There appears to be a period effect (forecasts in June are substantially biased), but this effect requires further study. The study suggests further examination of the bias associated with revenue categories, time within the budget cycle, and forecast horizon.     

关于税收筹划的思路选择

随着观念的不断更新,税收筹划也逐渐被人们所了解和认可,这是社会进步的一种表现,说明了纳税人依法纳税的意识在不断增强。在实践中,税收筹划应选择的基本思路是:从节税空间大的税种入手,从税收优惠入手,从纳税人构成入手,从影响应纳税额的因素入手。     

Revenue Strategy on the Gold Coast: The Case of Stamford, Connecticut

This study investigates the effects of federal policy and budgetchanges during the Reagan years as well as the revenue strategiesof governmental and private, nonprofit agencies in Stamford,Connecticut. Systematic examination of agency budgets and interviewswith agency directors in 1982 found widespread anxiety aboutpossible revenue decline, but few departures from traditionalrevenue strategies. In Stamford, federal changes produced revenueproblems for only a few agencies, most of which went about "businessas usual" and did not experience a budget crisis. This situationremained unchanged in late 1985.     

基于能力培养的《休闲产业管理》课程学习质量评估探讨

《休闲产业管理》课程是旅游与休闲管理相关专业的主干课程。从课程性质看《休闲产业管理》的教学涵盖理论教学和实践教学两大模块,任课教师在实施课程教学时应重视理论教学和实践教学并举,并对理论教学和实践教学的学习效果进行科学评估,以促进学习质量和学生能力的进一步提升。     

The Growth and Stability of the Local Tax Revenue in Japan

This paper estimates the elasticity of the local tax revenue in Japan and analyzes the growth and stability of the Japanese local tax system. The main estimated results are as follows. The growth taxes in the long run are the Individual Enterprise Tax and the Fixed Asset Tax. There are no stable taxes in the short run. The total amount of prefectural tax revenue is low growth in the long run and unstable in the short run. The total amount of municipal tax revenue is low growth in the long run and neutral in the short run. The total amount of the local tax revenue in the prefecture and the municipality does not have stability and growth.     

The Continuing Volatility of Devolution in Northern Ireland: The Shadow of Direct Rule

Since the establishment of devolution in 1999, Northern Ireland's power‐sharing governments have been fragile and prone to crisis. However, following a decade of relative stability and cooperation between Nationalists and Unionists at Stormont, hopes were high that the devolved arrangements had finally become embedded and more resistant to collapse. This optimism was dashed when Sinn Féin brought down the devolved institutions in January 2017. A snap election once again returned the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Féin as the largest parties and their inability to form a government resulted in yet another political stalemate. This article begins by outlining the pattern of political crises in Northern Ireland and assesses both the trigger factors and the responses. It then goes beyond the most obvious explanation for this continuing instability—that of the deep sectarian based divisions—and points to a number of other reasons for the volatility. These include issues such as the incomplete implementation of previous agreements, the impact of broader UK policies and the shadow of Direct Rule.     

关于加强政府非税收管理的思考

随着国民经济和社会各项事业的发展,政府非税收入规模不断扩大、结构不断变化,政府非税收入已成为国家财政收入的重要组成部分和我国经济建设的重要财力支柱,迫切需要我们在理论上重新认识政府非税收入的性质、特点和范围,在实践中规范其管理,使其在经济建设和各项社会事业发展中发挥应有的作用。本文拟就此问题谈点个人初浅的看法和意见。     

Effects of the Form of Government and Property Tax Limits on Local Finance in the Context of Revenue and Expenditure Simultaneity

This paper examines the impact of the form of government and state‐imposed property tax limits on municipal finance. We suggest that municipal revenues and expenditures are determined concurrently and estimate revenue and expenditure functions as simultaneous equations. We use the instrumental variable approach and fixed effects to address revenue and expenditure endogeneity. By testing the model on a cross‐section of rich municipal data for fiscal year 2002, we find evidence that revenues and expenditures are simultaneously determined, that potentially binding state‐imposed property tax limits effectively restrict local revenues and that the form of government is a significant predictor of local expenditures.     

The Punjab Revenue Authority: Meeting the challenges of a new institution

New institutions generally face many challenges that can inhibit their ability to succeed. The institutionalist literature can serve as a guide, informing important actors of the challenges they are likely to face when founding a new institution. We examine the Punjab Revenue Authority (PRA) in Pakistan to assess the extent to which the challenges posited by the various streams of institutionalism surfaced as real problems that leaders in Punjab Province had to deal with when establishing the PRA. We found that rational choice institutionalism, historical institutionalism, and sociological institutionalism all identified problems that the PRA had to address. We conclude that the PRA's early successes are a function of its ability to navigate these challenges effectively.