Mutual Optimism and War

Working with the definition of mutual optimism as war due to inconsistent beliefs , we formalize the mutual optimism argument to test the theory's logical validity. We find that in the class of strategic situations where mutual optimism is a necessary condition for war—i.e., where war is known to be inefficient, war only occurs if both sides prefer it to a negotiated settlement, and on the eve of conflict war is self-evident—then there is no Bayesian-Nash equilibrium where wars are fought because of mutual optimism. The fundamental reason that mutual optimism cannot lead to war is that if both sides are willing to fight, each side should infer that they have either underestimated the strength of the opponent or overestimated their own strength. In either case, these inferences lead to a peaceful settlement of the dispute. We also show that this result extends to situations in which there is bounded rationality and/or noncommon priors.     

Youth organizations as a Battlefield in the Cold War

In the late 1960s it was revealed that ever since 1952 the CIA had financed and was still financing, by way of a whole series of ‘screen’ foundations, the overwhelming majority of youth and student organizations, not only in the United States, but throughout the free world. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) as respectable as the International Union of Socialist Youth (IUSY), Pax Romana and the World Assembly of Youth (WAY) had benefited, at various times in their history, from the generosity and ‘liberalism’ of the CIA. The key to understanding this paradoxical American involvement in leftist organizations lies in the Soviet Union's policy of systematically infiltrating Western civil society and international organizations. Its constant aim, relentlessly pursued and never openly avowed, was to control Western opinion and further the goals of Soviet foreign policy. By 1950 the communists had succeeded in effectively controlling all the international mass organizations. This study deals with the crucial Berlin Youth Festival of 1951 and the East-West struggle for dominance in the World Federation of Democratic Youth (WFDY) and the International Union of Students (IUS).     

War Chests as Precautionary Savings

I present a model of campaign spending and saving in repeated elections which yields empirical implications on the creation of war chests. As previous studies disagree whether war chests deter potential challengers from running against incumbents, I present an alternative model that intentionally excludes deterrence as a motivation and formalizes under what circumstances (if any) a war chest would be created for savings. The model predicts that an incumbent creates a war chest when she faces a weaker challenger, i.e. as precautionary savings for future elections. The model yields several other predictions of incumbent fund-raising, spending, and saving behavior. Using incumbents from 1982–1998 U.S. House elections, I find strong empirical support for the predictions of the model.     

毛泽东的乐观与红军长征的胜利

长征是一次理想信念的伟大远征。作为中国共产党的主要缔造者,毛泽东在长征中以其革命必胜的坚定信念和乐观豁达的积极态度领导党和红军挽救了军事危局,引领了红军长征的正确方向,塑造了红军长征的精神品格,从而为红军长征的胜利奠定了基础。     

行政合同的解释原则研究

行政机关与行政相对方签订行政合同,已成为行政机关履行行政管理职责,以实现国家行政管理目标的一种重要方式。伴随着行政合同的广泛运用,合同纠纷亦日益增多,为了客观、公正、合理地裁处行政合同纠纷,受理合同纠纷的机关就必须在一定的原则指导下,对行政合同进行科学、准确的解释。对行政合同解释所应遵循的一般与特殊原则进行探讨,将对我国的行政司法实践有所裨益。     

《读书杂志》释例三则

本文选取了王念孙《读书杂志》当中的三则释例,通过对其的审校考证得出王氏所采用的校勘理念和校勘方法,并指出了其中的不尽如人意之处。     

The Other Side of Optimism: High Expectations and the Rejection of Status Quo Politics

Political Behavior - Why are options that suggest a rejection of status quo politics popular today? This study suggests that an overlooked and important source of disappointment in government is...     

Territory, Contiguity, and International Conflict: Assessing a New Joint Explanation

Beginning with two prominent explanations of international conflict—one based on contiguity and the other on territory—I develop a new joint account that provides two important advancements over the prior explanations. I then test the expectations of this joint account on dispute and war onset for all dyad years from 1919 to 1995. I find strong support for its predictions at the dispute stage and partial support at the war stage, including marked evidence of contingency between contiguity and territory. The results also show territory to be a more consistent engine of conflict than contiguity, especially at the war onset stage. Further, the findings provide insights into the effects of contiguity among nonterritorial disagreements, as well as the effects of territorial strife among noncontiguous pairs. Thus, this investigation clarifies the relative importance of both territory and contiguity within any geography-based explanation of conflict behavior, and therefore has broadly interesting implications.     

公共行政理论的反思与阐释

作为一个舶来概念,公共行政理论是为了满足资本主义国家政府的治理需要,在吸收、融合政治学、社会学、管理学等学科理论的基础上形成的理论体系。政府的基础地位、事实与价值的关系和效率伦理的阐释是公正行政理论的核心范畴。公共行政理论的演变历程表明它是一个实践化的理论体系,是政府治理的历史选择,具有规范化的规律可循。在当代,只有将对既有理论的反思和中国实践的阐释有机结合起来,才能形成中国化马克思主义的公共行政理论。     

关于排中律若干问题的说明

排中律是人类逻辑思维的基本规律。学界对排中律认识并不一致,排中律的内涵仍需要进一步澄清。排中律作为思维规律不同于排中规范,对排中律与排中规范的区分是必要的。强化的排中律是对排中律的深刻认识,在此基础上对排中律进行解释能够消除因多值逻辑的兴起而对排中律的普适性产生的质疑。关于排中律这几大问题的说明,有利于对基本逻辑规律的把握,为今后的逻辑研究工作打好坚实基础。     

马克思主义哲学当代诠释之反思

随着社会实践活动的丰富和实践视野的拓展,学术界出现了要求重新诠释马克思思想的热潮,发出了"回到马克思"、"走近马克思"、"走进马克思"的呼声,提出了很多诠释口号和诠释方法.本文对历史上和现当代出现的对马克思的诠释方法作了一些梳理,并对当代诠释马克思思想的合法性作了一些自己的分析.     

The Public Service Mutual: Theories of Motivational Advantage

Public service mutuals are a form of employee‐led organization in which service workers spin out of the public sector to form “mutuals” that contract back with government to provide a service. This article draws on economic and psychological theory to demonstrate that mutuals can align both self‐interested and altruistic or public service motivations so as to serve the social good; moreover, by offering greater autonomy to public service professionals, mutuals are predicted to encourage energetic and persistent behaviors. In both cases, there is an advantage over alternative forms of organization such as the public sector bureaucracy, the shareholder‐owned private firm, or the nonprofit organization. The employee‐led mutual form, however, may not appeal to risk‐averse workers, its collective decision‐making systems may be inefficient, and external mechanisms may be required to ensure that organizational outcomes are always directed toward the social good.     

The propaganda of the Marshall Plan in Italy in a Cold War context

The study will highlight two key circumstances surrounding the workings of the Marshall Plan in Italy, namely the immediate Cold War context (e.g. the 1948 elections) and the fact that Italy was the country where communism had the most serious chance to come to power via the ballot box. The analysis will suggest that the European Recovery Program (ERP) propaganda effort largely failed in its short-term objectives. Left-wing strength continued to grow in various forms, and the quick-fix revolution in the customs and practices of the moderate parties, industry, and the state, as demanded by the Americans, was hopelessly unrealistic. However, the psychological boost to confidence that the ERP (and NATO) gave to the very weak ruling classes was as significant in Italy as it was elsewhere in Europe. In contrast, the Plan's long-term legacy is much more nuanced and hard to calculate. After fascism's failure, the United States offered a vision of modernization which was unprecedented in its power, internationalism and invitation to emulation. The ERP was one of the main ways that this modernization was expressed. How Italian society built mechanisms to adapt, translate, resist and domesticate this challenge had a lasting effect on the nation's development over the subsequent decades.     

政府解辩性责任的理论逻辑和实践途径

政府及其官员不仅必须为其行使权力的过错行为承担惩戒性责任,而且也必须积极回应民意,就其角色、地位、职权和行动及管辖范围内的事务等进行公开的解释、说明和辩护,履行＂解辩性＂责任。解辩性责任是民主责任的有机组成部分,是公民权利的必然要求,也是由政府及其官员特殊的身份、地位、职权及行动方式等决定的。解辩性责任缺失的原因复杂而又晦涩,既有历史的和现实的原因,也与解辩性责任的特殊要求密切相关。践行解辩性责任,需要树立解辩性责任的观念,尊重和回应民意,推进信息公开和透明,多做解释和说明,表明立场和态度,加强互动与沟通。     

解读公共行政学的范式转型

库恩关于“范式”的定义是一个科学概念,任何对它的误读都会引起对学科理解的混乱。威尔逊———韦伯范式以追求效率为中心,同时也并未完全忽视公平问题,它构成了传统公共行政领域的科学范式。新公共管理没有摆脱传统公共行政追求效率的目标,因而它并非真正的范式转换。