Decomposing Audience Costs: Bringing the Audience Back into Audience Cost Theory

According to a growing tradition in International Relations, one way governments can credibly signal their intentions in foreign policy crises is by creating domestic audience costs: leaders can tie their hands by publicly threatening to use force since domestic publics punish leaders who say one thing and do another. We argue here that there are actually two logics of audience costs: audiences can punish leaders both for being inconsistent (the traditional audience cost), and for threatening to use force in the first place (a belligerence cost). We employ an experiment that disentangles these two rationales, and turn to a series of dispositional characteristics from political psychology to bring the audience into audience cost theory. Our results suggest that traditional audience cost experiments may overestimate how much people care about inconsistency, and that the logic of audience costs (and the implications for crisis bargaining) varies considerably with the leader's constituency.     

Conflict, Fusion, or Coexistence? The Complexity of Contemporary American Conservatism

This paper draws on an original survey and on the 2004 NES to explore the complexity of contemporary American conservatism. In both datasets, we find evidence that economic and cultural conservatism stand as distinct strands of conservative attitudes. The original survey also allows us to further explore the role of beliefs about the market in economic conservatism. In the end, we find little support for either liberal hopes of fundamental ideological conflict among conservatives or conservative hopes of ideological fusion. Instead, our data suggests that a particular type of ideological coexistence among economic and cultural conservatives is the norm.

当代中国传媒、民意与公共决策的互动探析——以电话初装费政策调整和取消为案例

描述和分析了1990年末期以来由传媒参与、促进公共政策议程的个案。在该个案中,社会意见表达得以实现,促成了公共讨论,并导致了政府对在公共讨论基础上形成之民意的政策回应。对这一进程的发生及促成因素进行了分析和解释,研究表明:传媒、民意与公共决策的互动过程有三个重要关节点:民意表达、公共讨论、政府回应。在这个过程中,传媒起到了关键性作用,它充当了形成公共意见的"公共领域"的角色与功能。除了探讨传媒、民意与公共决策的互动过程与机制之外,对本个案中表现出的遗憾与局限也做了讨论。通过本个案研究,希望为当代中国传媒、民意与公共决策互动问题提供一个微观视角。     

公共管理与公众舆论

自18世纪开始兴起的公众舆论推动了近代西方民主思想的形成,而20世纪公共管理的勃兴正是这种民主思想体制化的必然结果。对于公众舆论的理性与非理性认识分野,受制于背后复杂的权力博弈。在近代公众舆论观向现代公众舆论观转型的过程中,公众权力论逐渐让位于管理控制论。由于国家-市场-市民社会的关系失衡,当代公众舆论面临着环境危机。在目前善治的要求下,公共管理从公共利益出发,必须以保护公众舆论的自由和多元为己任,确立自身被监督者、反馈者和配给者的多重角色,做到有所为和有所不为。     

Rethinking the New ENP: A Vision for an Enhanced European Role in the Arab Revolutions

This article assesses European responses to the Arab uprisings and, in particular, the introduced change in the European Union policy toward its southern neighborhood. The presented analyses provide a profound scrutiny and assessment of the new version of the European Neighbourhood Policy, empirical evidence of persisting security considerations post-2011 in Euro–Arab relations, and a more elaborated vision of future Euro–Arab relations, attempting to balance between three considerations: security, democracy, and governance.     

The limits of authoritarian solidarity: The Gulf monarchies and preserving authoritarian rule during the Arab Spring

Scholars have recently begun to examine how authoritarian rulers cooperate with each other in order to fend off popular challenges to their power. During the Arab Spring the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) supported fellow authoritarian regimes in some cases while backing opposition movements in others. Existing theoretical approaches fail to explain this variation. Advancing the study on authoritarian cooperation, this article develops a theoretical approach that sets out to explain how authoritarian regimes reach their decisions. Drawing on poliheuristic foreign policy analysis, it argues that perceptions of similarity serve as a filter for estimating threats to regime survival at home. If regimes perceive the situation in other countries as similar to their own, supporting other authoritarian regimes becomes the only acceptable strategy. In contrast, if perceptions of similarity are low, regimes also consider other options and evaluate their implications beyond the domestic political arena. Applying this framework to the example of the GCC states during the Arab Spring, the analysis reveals covariation between perceptions of similarity and threat among GCC regimes, on the one hand, and their strategies, on the other.     

基于SNA的突发事件网络舆情关键节点识别——以“7·23动车事故”为例

运用社会网络分析方法(SNA)研究突发事件舆情传播的网络结构特征及关键节点识别,探究舆情传播的网络结构、节点位置及相互关系对信息的传播路径、传播速度及传播范围的影响等问题。以2011年重大突发事件"7.23"动车事故为实证研究对象,运用Pajek软件生成了"7.23"信息传播网络拓扑图,基于邻接矩阵数据进行了网络密度、可达性、聚类系数和中心性测度,依据测度结果和位置角色分析对其进行关键节点分层与识别。研究表明,突发事件网络舆情的传播和扩散以社会网络结构为基础,具有复杂性和动态性特征;网络结构与节点位置决定着成员的"影响力"程度;中心关键节点的资源控制能力与信息输入输出效率具有显著的正相关性。可以通过改变中心度、聚类系数等手段嵌入式引导关键节点,减少谣言和恐慌情绪的传播。本文采用详实数据对舆情传播关键节点的分层识别,拓展了社会网络方法在应急管理领域的应用,克服了以往研究中技术与管理实践相分离的弊病。     

Between reform and Islam: The Arab spring in Jordan 2011–2014

This article discusses the Arab Spring in Jordan and the reasons the Hashemite regime was able to survive it. Liberals, retired military officers, young people, members of tribes, and members of the Muslim Brotherhood all participated in the demonstrations against the regime, which began in January 2011. In the beginning, it seemed that diversified demonstrations would bring about the regime’s collapse, as happened in other Arab countries. But in the end, it turned out that each group acted in its own interests. Tribal leaders worried about economic concerns, liberals sought to promote political reform, and the Muslim Brotherhood demanded the establishment of an Islamic caliphate. The lack of a common goal combined with Jordan’s policy of allowing demonstrations free from the fear of violent repression, sapped protesters’ motivation and minimized the number of participants. The fear of the type of anarchy and terror seen in Syria and Egypt also frightened the protesters and led them to the conclusion that it is better to live in an undemocratic but stable regime than pursue a fight for democracy that might end badly. Ultimately, it was King Abdullah’s astute political strategy in combination with international contingencies that enabled Jordan’s Hashemite regime to survive the Arab Spring.     

Breaking the Glass Ceiling: Local Gender‐Based Earnings Inequality and Women's Belief in the American Dream

This article ties together research on gender, income inequality, and political ideology, by exploring the effect of gender‐based earnings inequality on women's belief in a fundamental tenet of the “American Dream”—meritocracy. Focusing on gender‐based earnings inequality in women's local residential context, and drawing upon relative deprivation theory, this article argues that variation across local areas in the relative economic status of women should influence the ideological outlook of resident women. In contrast to relative deprivation theory, but consistent with rising expectations theory, I argue that ideological disillusionment should peak in contexts in which women's earnings fall closely behind men, and that ideological optimism should rebound in contexts in which women's earnings have achieved parity with that of men. Utilizing pooled survey data, I find strong evidence that individual women's belief in the American Dream varies according to whether local women's relative earnings indicate confrontation with or breaking of the “glass ceiling.”     

Opinion formation in foreign policy: the Swiss experience

Applying John Zaller's model of opinion formation to survey data covering 15 years (1981–95) of direct democracy in Switzerland, this paper provides a contribution to the debate about opinion formation in foreign policy. On the one hand, the Swiss experience contradicts the widespread view that citizens are poorly informed about and little interested in foreign affairs. On the other hand, direct democracy often translates into governmental defeats in this field. We address these mixed results and show that opinion formation in foreign policy is not a special case, and differs from that in domestic policy only with respect to the circumstances under which it occurs. In particular, we highlight the unusual type and level of conflict within the elite on foreign policy issues, which translates into distinct patterns of attitudes among the public.     

Nonparticipation as Self-Censorship: Publicly Observable Political Activity in a Polarized Opinion Climate

In a polarized opinion climate, people may refrain from participating in publicly observable political activities that make them vulnerable to scrutiny and criticism by others who hold opinions that differ from their own. We took a dispositional approach to testing this claim by determining whether people who are relatively more influenced by the climate of opinion when choosing whether or not to voice an opinion, measured with the Willingness to Self-Censor scale [Hayes et al. International Journal of Public Opinion Research 17 (2005) 298], are also relatively less likely to engage in public political activities. In a poll of residents of the United States, we found that even after controlling for interest in politics, political ideology, ideological extremity, political efficacy, attention to political news, dispositional shyness, frequency of political discussion, and demographics, dispositional self-censors reported having engaged in relatively fewer public political activities over the prior 2 years compared to those less willing to censor their own opinion expression. These results are consistent with our interpretation of political participation as a social process that is governed in part by the social psychological implications of participation to the person. At a larger theoretical level, our findings connect the literature on opinion perceptions and opinion expression with research on political participation.

Not a Curse at All: Why Middle Eastern Oil States Fail and How it can be Prevented

Western scholarship has often noted that oil states in the Middle East are affected by the ‘resource curse’. Thus, such states are to eventually fail due to their plundering of resources and their neglect of the social contract with their citizens. However, this is not the case, as oil states are neither failed states, nor fully democratic. They hover in a middle ground in which they assure security through coercion, but lack representation and legitimacy. Due to the events of the Arab Spring, a pragmatic, insightful and comprehensive review of oil states in the region is necessary. Although oil states in the region thus far have remained stable, change can be expected in the future. How will oil states deal with the pressures of a more demanding society and an ever-challenging economic atmosphere? Furthermore, what can history teach us so that state failure can be averted?     

80后作家作品对大学生情商养成影响的调查与思考

80后作家作品倍受当代大学生群体追捧,本文以阀卷调查的方式,从分析研究对大学生影响深远的80后作家作品入手,通过当下大学生对80后作家作品的消费状况、阅读心理和阅读效果的调查,探究当下80后作家作品对大学生情商养成方面的影响。     

European–Mediterranean Security and the Arab Spring: Changes and Challenges

The policy of the European Union (EU) toward the Mediterranean has undergone two main metamorphoses during the last 25 years. In 1995, it started from a collective security idea with the Barcelona Process, but due to the poor success of this collective approach, it underwent a “realist turn” with the creation of the European Neighbourhood Policy in 2004. The Arab Spring in 2011, by questioning authoritarianism, influenced the perception of what is recognized as a security problem and who can define it. The authoritarian rulers and their supporting security forces are now challenged by their populations, and societal circumstances are so unstable that nearly every domestic problem can be politically given a spin to become a security risk. Aside from this, violent conflicts and civil wars demand an answer from the EU. In this situation, the EU's answer to the Arab Spring does not directly respond to the changing security situation in the Mediterranean. It emphasizes domestic democracy and civil society but does not take up the potential risk discourses. Concerning violent conflicts, the EU as a community is not at all active in the region but leaves this field to its member states, NATO, the Arab League, and the United Nations. Thus, the perceptions, ideas, and needs of Mediterranean security between the EU and the Southern partner states still differ harshly and seem to disregard the risk dimension of the Mediterranean security problems in this period of Arab transition.     

EU Democracy Assistance Discourse in Its New Response to a Changing Neighbourhood

Drawing on Critical Discourse Analysis, this article compares the structure of key policy documents on European Union (EU) democracy promotion in the Southern Neighborhood before and after the “Arab Uprisings.” With reference to the key document presenting the EU's revised conception of democracy and strategic vision in the Southern Neighborhood, this article argues that, despite assertions of a paradigmatic shift in the EU's approach to democracy, the conceptual structure of these documents maintains unaltered the substantively liberal model for both development and democratization. This is likely to leave the EU's pre-Uprisings reputational deficit concerning democracy promotion unaltered.