The Electoral Consequences of Direct Political Action: Evidence from Brazil

Democracy affords citizens the ability to influence policy through participation in elections and through direct political action. Though previous scholarship evaluates the impact each strategy has on outcomes, little if any work exists that examines how one strategy, direct action, affects success in the other, elections. This study analyzes the relationship between land occupations and the electoral success of the Workers' Party in Brazil between 1996 and 2006. It finds that the relationship varies in presidential and mayoral elections depending on income inequality and incumbency. Once the PT captures the presidential office in 2002, these effects disappear, suggesting that the effect of political protest also depends on who is in office.     

The Political Consequences of National Crisis Management: Micro-Level Evidence from German Voters during the 2008/09 Global Economic Crisis

How does national crisis management affect the electoral fortunes of coalition governments? Drawing on micro-level data from just before the 2009 federal elections in Germany, this article investigates how voters' evaluation of specific policies against the global financial crisis affected approval of and voting intentions for the then-governing grand coalition. We find that voters in favour of the two most prominent anti-crisis policies, the car-scrap bonus and the public guarantee for banks, were more likely to approve of and to vote for the two incumbent parties. These evaluations of specific policies influenced individuals' vote choice in addition to their assessments of the economic situation more generally and in addition to party identification. This suggests that even in the greatest economic turmoil with blurred political responsibilities, government parties can win or lose voters through the implementation of specific economic policies.     

On the Way to Limited Competitiveness: Political Consequences of the 2011 Electoral Reform in Hungary

This article tests the effects of a new electoral system in Hungary that was introduced by the governing FIDESZ party in 2011. We are especially concerned with the shape of single-member district (SMD) level electoral competition following a significant transformation that tends to be viewed as serving FIDESZ's goal of preserving its constitutional majority. The results show not only transformation of Hungarian electoral politics between 2010 and 2018 elections but also the fact that the return of bipolarization is far from reality in Hungarian electoral politics. On one hand, the reform resulted in an increased number of districts with clear dominance of the two strongest parties nationally, but on the other hand, this trend was connected to asymmetrical bipartism, with clear advantage of the FIDESZ. Furthermore, there was a persistently high number of SMDs where the competition took place between the FIDESZ and one of the third-place parties.     

国际金融危机冲击下中东欧国家经济走势分析

2000-2007年,中东欧国家的经济总体上呈平稳快速发展的趋势,2007年国际金融危机爆发后,中东欧转轨国家经济形势迅速恶化.国际金融危机对中东欧国家经济的冲击和影响与这些国家转型后形成的制度基础和经济发展模式有关.本文就国际金融危机对这些国家经济的冲击,从多个侧面分析相关原因,并对未来发展趋势进行了预测.     

German Voters in Times of Crisis: The Impact of Perceptions and Economic Context on Electoral Behaviour

This paper analyses the connection between economic context, voters’ individual assessment of the economy, and party identification, taking the German national elections of 2009 as an example. Based on the results of multinomial and multilevel regression models, the article shows that partisanship moderates how the economy affects the vote. In cases of increasing unemployment in the constituency, voters are less likely to vote for the Social Democrats instead of the CDU and the opposition. This effect is particularly strong amongst voters who report that they identify with the Social Democrats. Regarding the effect of voters’ assessment of the national economy, the results are different. In this case, a better evaluation of the regional economy increases the probability to vote for right-wing parties – notably amongst voters without partisanship. These findings suggest that the moderating effect of partisanship on the economy’s impact on voting behaviour should not be overestimated. What is more, this analysis implies that research on economic voting should always account for both contextual factors and voters’ personal assessment of the economy, as these measures reveal different dimensions of economic voting.     

Panel on the Economic and Political Consequences of Chernobyl'

This article summarizes a discussion by a panel of leading experts on Soviet energy analyzing the consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl' nuclear plant in the Ukraine on April 26, 1986.

The near-term economic costs associated with clean-up, relocation, and compensating for losses to electricity supplies are significant but manageable. The longer-term effects will focus on likely modifications in Soviet strategies for the nuclear industry, which may shift emphasis back towards conventional fuels and conservation.

The political consequences were managed fairly well by the leadership. Consistent with Secretary Gorbachev's policy of glasnost' (openness) more information has been available on this event than was the case in previous analogous situations. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 027, 124, 723.     

Challenging The Mandate Of Heaven: Popular Protest in Modern China

Arguing that popular protest has played an unusual role in bestowing political legitimacy in China, this article traces continuities in state responses to protest movements from imperial days to the present. The author compares the government's recent handling of three different types of protest: economically motivated actions by hard-pressed workers and farmers, nationalistically inspired demonstrations by patriotic students, and (at greater length) religiously rooted resistance by zealous believers. The central authorities' tolerance toward localized strikes and tax riots, and their overt encouragement of protests against the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, contrasts sharply with the harsh and unrelenting campaign of repression that has been directed against Falun Gong adherents. Explanations for these variant state responses are sought in historically grounded assessments of the political implications of different types of popular protest.     

国际金融危机对越南经济政策的影响

经济全球化使越南经济成为世界经济中一颗耀眼的新星,同时也使越南经济与世界经济的联系越来越紧密.本文首先分析了2007年底以来由美国引起的国际金融危机对越南经济的影响,接下来介绍了面对国际金融危机造成的经济下滑,越南政府提出的一系列的经济刺激计划,最后展望了越南的经济前景.     

The Innovation Paradox in Southern Europe. Unexpected Performance During the Economic Crisis

The international crisis has exerted a strong impact on the National Innovation Systems (NIS) of three Southern European economies: Italy, Portugal and Spain. These countries represent interesting cases for analysing responses to the crisis because they show a sort of innovation paradox: despite the weakness of their institutional systems and the defensive policies developed by governments, some of their companies have nevertheless been able to innovate even during the hardest years of the recession. In order to shed light on this paradox, three matters are taken into account: the distinctive features of the South European National Innovation Systems; the behaviour of governments and companies; the ‘generative dynamics’ and the ‘creative processes’ that have taken place during the crisis.     

后金融危机时代俄罗斯经济转型评估

俄罗斯20年的经济转型使该国经济实现了明显的增长。但在金融危机中暴露出的问题,也显示俄罗斯经济存在着内在的结构性问题。这些内在结构性问题将长期影响俄罗斯的经济可持续增长与财政预算的安全,后金融危机时代俄罗斯经济最大的挑战就是结构改革。     

世界经济发展进程中的东亚金融危机

东亚金融危机是在一个不断变化中的世界经济环境中发生的,其中有３ 个因素有助于我们对这次危机的成因的理解,它们是：经济的全球化,知识经济的兴起,市场体制的普及。从而,如何解决这一危机也应从上述３ 个方面寻找答案     

韩国的选举制度与政治体制

本文旨在分析韩国的选举制度如何加大了社会的不平等现象。1997年金融危机之后,韩国社会迅速走上两极化道路。本文分三个层次进行论述。一是简要介绍韩国的选举制度。这将作为支撑本文核心见解的框架。二是考察韩国选举制度导致的＂民心歪曲＂现象。三是探讨政治制度的党派特征。即使同为民主主义,但选择比例代表制还是多数制将决定其政策方向。最后,在结论部分中强调,若要使韩国的选举制度取得更加均衡的政治结果,就一定要取消现行多数制,采用比例代表制度。比例代表制将有助于实现得票和议席之间的均衡,并进一步创造平等的民主主义。     

The Personal Is Political: The Cuban Ethnic Electoral Policy Cycle

This article documents a U.S. Cuban foreign policy cycle that operated in tandem with the presidential electoral cycle between 1992 and 2004. During these post–Cold War years, when Cuba posed no threat to U.S. national security, influential, well-organized Cuban Americans leveraged political contributions and votes to tighten the embargo on travel and trade, especially at the personal level. U.S. presidential candidates, most notably incumbent presidents seeking re-election, responded to their demands with discretionary powers of office. When presidential candidates supported policies that made good electoral sense but conflicted with concerns of state, they subsequently reversed or left unimplemented Cuba initiatives. After describing the logic behind an ethnic electoral policy cycle and U.S. personal embargo policy between 1992 and 2004, this article examines Cuban American voter participation, political and policy preferences, lobbying, political contributions, and the relationship between the ethnic policy and presidential election cycles.     

Protest in Italy in Times of Crisis: A Cross-Government Comparison

Abstract

Using protest event analysis methodology and conceptual and theoretical toolkits developed in social movement studies, this article analyses protest mobilisation during the period of the height of the economic crisis in Italy (2009–2014) by comparing the protest trends in diachronic and comparative perspectives over a period of four different governments. Data show that the Italian anti-austerity protest arena was dominated by ‘old actors’ (the traditional trade unions) and was not able to produce the strong social and political coalitions that emerged in other South European countries. This was due to the specific relationship that developed between civil society and political parties that shaped the forms of anti-austerity mobilisation in this period.     

自由放任与经济安全——东南亚金融危机和美国次贷危机的比较

金融自由化是经济全球化的趋势,但自由放任和全凭市场调节的金融自由化必然引发金融动荡乃至发生金融危机.本文从西方自由主义理论的指导要义出发,考察了过早进行金融自由化的东南亚国家和金融监管缺失的美国爆发金融危机的原因,并分析了两次金融危机对当事国和全球经济安全的影响.     

Voting for Movement Parties in Southern Europe: The Role of Protest and Digital Information

In recent years ‘movement parties’ such as Syriza in Greece, the Movimento 5 Stelle in Italy, Podemos in Spain and—to a lesser extent—Bloco de Esquerda in Portugal shook national party systems, breaking the consolidated dynamics of political competition. Despite growing interest in movement parties, there has been scant attention to the role of citizens adopting unconventional forms of action and using digital media in accounting for their electoral performance. To fill this gap, four original internet-based post-electoral surveys are employed showing that protesters and digital media users are more likely to vote for these parties, despite important country differences.