Risk calculation and precautionary uncertainty: two configurations within crime assessment

This paper explores two configurations of thinking about crime amongst law enforcement agencies and private sector security managers: ‘risk calculation’ (concerned with everyday, calculable probabilities and impacts and their management) and ‘precautionary uncertainty’ (concerned with events that might be incapacitating, yet are not calculable by probability assessments). The paper explores their respective constituent concepts and fields of application in crime assessment, drawing upon qualitative research-in-progress in Belgium. Risk calculation, as applied to crime, starts with past data on routines that link perpetrators with targets that lack capable guardians. Precautionary uncertainty focuses on potential impacts that are highly disabling and potentially wide-spreading (contagion, knock-on effects), asking how such impacts can be contained and recovered from. Risk and uncertainty are shown to be related to ‘rational-instrumental’ and ‘deliberative-constitutive’ approaches as developed by Fisher’s work in the field of law, which offers a meta-narrative in relation to which they can be positioned. Finally, the paper asks if these two crime assessment methods should be seen as distinct or as merging. On the basis of criteria of conceptual sharpness, openness to public debate and justiciability, the authors champion the maintenance of a clear distinction between risk and uncertainty.     

Risk assessment vs real prediction: The prediction problem and public trust

Confusing risk assessment and the prediction of individual behavior has led to false claims which, if translated into juvenile court or adult sentencing policies (selective incapacitation, for example), may lead to further erosion in public confidence in the justice system. Considerable emphasis has been placed on the consequences of false positives in the literature and in this paper. The false negative has different but equally damaging effects because the impression may be given that increasing the severity of sanctions for selected serious offenders is the solution to juvenile delinquency and adult crime. Analysis of official police records for three birth cohorts from Racine, Wisconsin, reveals that, although high-risk groups produce a disproportionate share of the delinquent and criminal behavior recorded in police reports and juveniles in high-risk groups continue into adult crime disproportionately to others, serious juvenile offenders still account for only a portion of the serious offenses that will ultimately be committed by adults. Therefore, selective incapacitation of early offenders may take only a small bite out of crime. When referrals rather than police contacts were utilized as the predictor variable, there was little difference in predictive efficiency.     

Risk assessment in offenders with intellectual disability: a comparison across three levels of security

In mainstream offender samples, several risk assessments have been evaluated for predictive validity. This study extends this work to male offenders with intellectual disabilities. Participants from high-, medium-, and low-security settings, as well as community settings, were compared on a range of risk assessments. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, HCR-20-Historical Scale, the Risk Matrix 2000-C (combined risk), and the Emotional Problems Scales-Internalising discriminated between groups, with participants from high security having higher scores than those in medium security, who had higher scores than those in the community. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, all HCR-20 scales, the Short Dynamic Risk Scale, and the Emotional Problems Scales (Internalising and Externalising) showed significant areas under the curve for the prediction of violence. The Static-99 showed a significant area under the curve for the prediction of sexual incidents. The discussion reviews the value of these various scales to intellectual disability services.     

Risk assessment with adolescent sex offenders

The paper describes an evaluation of a risk assessment tool's effectiveness in distinguishing adolescent sexual offenders who had committed further sexual offences from those who had not. The sample consisted of 50 male adolescent sexual offenders referred to a forensic outpatient service within a healthcare setting. The adolescents within the sample were designated recidivists versus non-recidivists using two methods: clinican's judgement and Home Office records for reconvictions. The risk assessment achieved a moderate to high level of sensitivity and specificity in distinguishing the recidivists from non-recidivists using clinician's judgement of recidivism as outcome. However, the tool was unable to distinguish recidivists from non-recidivists. The risk assessment tool described has potential in the identification and modification of contextual and clinical risk factors, in informing professionals’ decision-making and in developing and implementing a comprehensive risk management plan.     

Toward a social geography of baby farming

This paper uses a range of archival sources to undertake a case study of the people and practices encompassed by the term “baby farming” in Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. It argues that baby farming needs to be located in space and time in order to reach some accommodation between its materiality and the discursive construction that continues to distort historical debate. Neither a criminal nor a compassionate practice, baby farming emerges as an economic exchange predicated on the vulnerability of single mothers, the disposability of their children, and in many cases, the desperation of poor women who see taking infants to nurse as a way of earning an income.     

Risk assessment and offender victim relationship in juvenile offenders

The present study compares the Historical, Clinical, and Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) checklist in a male offender population of 108 adolescents using the relationship between the offender and the victim as a classification factor. Two types of relationship were retained for comparison purposes: family victim/known victim and unknown victim. All adolescents admitted to the Adolescent program of Montréal's Philippe-Pinel Institute from February 1998 to April 2003 were assessed and their families were met. The HCR-20 checklist was completed for each adolescent. Statistically significant differences were observed for the mean rank of the total score of the HCR-20 and two sub-scales, the historical subscale (H) and the risk management subscale (R). The results indicate that the adolescents who victimize strangers have more violent risk factors compared to those who victimize family/known victims. These results have important implications regarding prevention and treatment.     

Risk assessment with intimate partner sex offenders

Abstract

Risk assessment with any offender presents a number of challenges. However, risk assessment with offenders who have committed offences against their partners presents practitioners with a number of additional challenges. Intimate Partner (IP) sex offenders are reported to be responsible for the majority of adult serious sexual offences in England and Wales. However, despite calls for a unified approach to sex offender theory there has been little integration between this and the IP and family sexual violence literature. This paper summarizes the relevant literature on prevalence and cross over of sexual abuse by IP offenders, patterns of abuse, generality of offending, psychopathology and risk concerns (including risk of intimate partner homicide). Based on this, recommendations are made for best practice with IP sex offenders.     

Violence against teachers: prevalence and consequences

Data collected from 731 teachers were used to examine the consequences of violence directed toward teachers while in the workplace. Analyses showed that the majority of respondents (n = 585, 80.0%) had experienced school-related violence—broadly defined—at one point in their careers. Serious violence (actual, attempted, or threatened physical violence) was less common, but still common enough to be of concern (n = 202, 27.6%). Violence predicted physical and emotional effects, as well as teaching-related functioning. In addition, a model with fear as a potential mediator revealed that both fear and violence were independently predictive of these negative outcomes. Finally, analyses showed that, in general, women reported higher levels of physical symptoms compared to men. We discuss the implications of violence against teachers in terms of personal consequences and the implications for mental health professionals working in an educational setting.     

Determinants of judicial efficiency: a survey

Court delay has been much lamented about the world over. Judicial efficiency is one important element in keeping it under control. This paper surveys the available evidence concerning the determinants of differences in judges’ output. It points out weaknesses in the literature and makes a number of proposals how these could be relieved.     

Cannabis and driving: Results from a general population survey

The role of illicit drugs on driving, and particularly of cannabis and driving, is the object of increasing awareness. While there is increasing evidence of their effect on psychomotor performance and increased risk of involvement in traffic accidents, limited information is available concerning factors that can predict the likelihood of driving under the influence of cannabis. The present study aims to determine the past year prevalence of driving under the influence of cannabis, and of being a passenger in a vehicle driven by a person under the influence of cannabis, as well as to examine the correlations with a broad range of potential risk factors. A total of 2500 people, aged between 14 and 70 and living in Castille and Leon (Spain), were surveyed in 2004 with regard to their consumption of alcohol and illicit drugs. Among those who reported cannabis use in the previous year, further assessment was carried out. 15.7% of those surveyed reported cannabis consumption in the previous 12 months, of whom 9.7% reported driving a vehicle under the influence of cannabis during this period, on average eight times. One out of five (19.9%) reported being a passenger in a vehicle driven by a person under the influence of cannabis, on average five times in the previous 12 months. The predictors of driving under the influence of cannabis were the population size of community, the number of drugs consumed, reference to cannabis-related problems and to being a passenger in a vehicle driven by a person under the influence of alcohol. The data show that cannabis consumption and driving is common, and requires more attention from policy makers.     

Risk assessment of sexual offenders in German forensic institutions

BACKGROUND: The assessment of recidivism in sexual offenders is an urgent topic for forensic psychiatry in Germany. The call for useful predictive measures is therefore getting louder. AIMS: The present study analyses which criteria are employed by therapists in forensic hospitals to assess the dangerousness of sexual offenders. Of particular interest is whether the criteria listed in presently known prediction scores as decisive are actually used in decision-making in current forensic psychiatric practice. METHOD: Data are collected in a prospective prediction study funded by the German Research Association. RESULTS: The results reveal that therapists employ mainly clinical and less historical criteria, thus indicating substantial differences from currently known prediction scores and results of other studies. CONCLUSIONS: That therapists base their prediction of dangerousness primarily on clinical variables reveals a substantial error that has to be remedied. Further research on the extent of relevance of clinical variables is needed.     

Caution ahead: teachers,vetting and the law

At the beginning of 2006 the media reported instances where people who had been convicted of sexual offences against children were permitted to work in schools. A list of unsuitable people (known as ‘List 99’) has existed for over 80 years and yet the system appears to have broken down. In this article I seek to examine some of the issues involved in the operation of List 99, including the suggestion that those who are cautioned for committing offences against children should equally be unable to work with children. A second article will then critically analyse the changes proposed by the government to the operation of List 99 and the vetting of those who wish to work with children.     

Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients

The actuarial Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) was developed for male offenders where it has shown excellent replicability in many new forensic samples using officially recorded outcomes. Clinicians also make decisions, however, about the risk of interpersonal violence posed by nonforensic psychiatric patients of both sexes. Could an actuarial risk assessment developed for male forensic populations be used for a broader clientele? We modified the VRAG to permit evaluation using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study that included nonforensic male and female patients and primarily self-reported violence. The modified VRAG yielded a large effect size in the prediction of dichotomous postdischarge severe violence over 20 and 50 weeks. Accuracy of VRAG predictions was unrelated to sex. The results provide evidence about the robustness of comprehensive actuarial risk assessments and the generality of the personal factors that underlie violent behavior.     

Barring teachers: the new vetting arrangements

This article forms the second part of an examination of the law relating to the vetting and barring system for teachers and those who have access to children. It was seen in the first article (Gillespie, 2006, Education and the Law, 18(1), 19-30) that controversy had erupted when it was disclosed that some teachers were allowed to remain in the teaching profession even after being cautioned for child sex offences. The government sought to review the operation of List 99 (the name given to the list of those barred from teaching) and in the longer term wished to completely rethink its approach to the vetting and barring system. This article critiques these proposals and assesses whether they will be any more effective at protecting vulnerable members of society.     

Student academic appeals: a holistic assessment

The Government regards it as important that ... institutions should review their procedures for handling student complaints ... and intends to review, in two years’ time, whether sufficient progress has been made.

para. 9.8 Higher Education for the 21st Century (1998)

The imperative to review process is upon the universities, this clear statement by the Government supporting Recommendation 60 of the Dearing Report sets the timescale (whilst still not differentiating between Appeals and complaints).