印尼：艰难中缓慢回升

一、亚洲金融危机对印尼经济的打击１.经济大幅度下滑 ,增长率出现负数１９９７年亚洲金融危机对印尼经济的冲击和破坏较大 ,时间最长。国内经济增长从１９９６年的８%下跌至１９９７年的４．６%。１９９８年政治、经济、社会矛盾总爆发 ,社会大骚乱 ,苏哈托被迫下台 ,经济出现１３．６ %的负增长。１９９９年１０月产生瓦希德民选政府 ,经济增长为０．２３%。２０００年政局不稳 ,政党纷争不停 ,阻碍经济复苏。印尼１９９０年国内生产总值已达１０２６亿美元 ,１９９６年达最高峰的２２５０亿美元。１９９７年亚洲金融危机后开始下滑 ,１９…     

Impact assessment of farmer institutional development and agricultural change: Soroti district,Uganda

This article is based on participatory development research conducted in Soroti district of Uganda with the aim of assessing the impact of agricultural development among poor farmers. The central argument is that a combination of farmer empowerment and innovation through experiential learning in farmer field school (FFS) groups, changes in the opportunity structure through transformation of local government staff, establishment of new farmer-governed local institutions, and emergence of a private service provider has been successful in reducing rural poverty. Based on an empirical study of successful adaptation and spread of pro-poor technologies, the study assesses the well-being impact of agricultural technology development in Soroti district. The study concludes that market-based spread of pro-poor agricultural technologies requires an institutional setting that combines farmer empowerment with an enabling policy environment.     

现代与落后交织的毛里塔尼亚——非洲的跨越式发展一瞥

当你置身于西北部非洲毛里塔尼亚(下称毛塔)的城市中,大概也会强烈地感受到城市的现代生活与贫穷落后生活之间的巨大反差现象:星级酒店及花园式小楼与四处可见的火柴盒式住宅(低矮简陋的平房);豪华汽车与毛驴车;无限上网及移动通信与无固定电信网络;电气化生活与原始落后生活等,这些情景随处可见.笔者将自己在毛塔两年多的体验和感受见于笔端,以示非洲的跨越式发展之隅.     

从金融危机看美式资本主义

美国自由放任的资本主义经济模式是金融危机的根源。奥巴马推出经济新政,对"美国模式"加以调整,加大政府干预经济力度,以力挽狂澜,摆脱危机。金融危机引发美欧"模式"孰优孰劣之争,但两家"模式"之争没有赢家。     

Seeing Theory in Practice: An Analysis of Empathy in Mediation

cush and Folger (1994) in The Promise of Mediation acticulated distinctions between Individualist and Relational ideology, and linked them to specific theoretical orientations to mediation practice, problem-solving and transformative, respectively. Yet, a question persists as to whether these distinctions produce any material differences in practice. This question is approached here through an examination of a single construct in the mediation literature, empathy. The author proposes that the Individualist and Relational ideological frameworks have material implications for the concept and the practice of fostering empathy between the parties to a mediation: The problem-solving framework fosters a social interaction which can be understood as transactional empathy while the transformative framework fosters an interaction described as relational empathy.     

重新解读中国模式:概念与影响

本文探讨了中国模式的定义和影响,认为中国模式关键在于较好地平衡了中国与世界的关系、发展与政治稳定的关系、经济增长与提高民生的关系.中国模式的提出和发展必将对美国等西方国家、中国与发展中国家关系、国际政治格局以及中国软实力构建产生重大影响.这些影响表现在:中国模式所倡导的合作精神是对现有西方秩序的有益补充;中国模式的提出为发展中国家提供了更多的道路选择;中国模式将促进新的国际政治经济新秩序的形成,而广大发展中国家将受益于这一过程.与美国最大的不同是,中国没有在全世界推广中国模式的主观意图,而是主张发展道路的多样化.     

The United States,Europe, and Homeland Security: Seeing Soft Security Concerns Through a Counterterrorist Lens

The attacks of 11 September 2001 created a new paradigm for domestic security in the United States. The struggle against terrorism, particularly catastrophic terrorism, became the government’s most important priority. In the wake of these attacks, the Department of Homeland Security was established, with broader powers of enforcement, set forth in new legislation such as the Patriot Act. This new focus on homeland security will have a secondary effect on the efforts of the US to deal effectively with a range of soft security threats in that it will increase attention to those concerns, particularly as they are seen as enablers of terrorism. The establishment of the Department of Homeland Security is the largest reorganization of the US government in over 50 years, and will necessitate a reordering of the inter-departmental relationships on security matters as well as those critical to soft security cooperation with friends and allies abroad. Although the new department has absorbed many aspects of enforcing the nation’s laws, other functions key to soft security remain spread throughout other US government agencies. A comprehensive understanding of this new order will be key to enhancing the international struggle against soft security threats.     

欧盟数字治理:理念、实践与影响

在全球科技竞争日益激烈的背景下,近几年来欧盟加速推动数字化转型,提出了"数字主权"的战略理念,在全球引起强烈反响。欧盟在规范数字市场发展方面持续发力,密集出台了一系列新的监管规则,成为全球数字治理规则的制定者、贡献者和引领者。依托于庞大的数字经济市场和先进的技术基础,欧盟将数字治理理念推向世界,产生的影响值得重视:一是在全球数字治理规则制定中的"欧洲色彩"愈加浓重;二是欧盟数字单一市场对全球数字经济格局的塑造力不断提升;三是"消费者主权"正在成为全球数字治理领域的新特征。     

Reputations and deterrence: A theoretical and empirical assessment

This study seeks to adjudicate between the two schools of intelligence: the “Orthodox School” which argues that the inherent pathologies and obstacles in the intelligence work make a significant degree of successful surprise inevitable in almost all attempts and the “Revisionist School” which asserts that the roots of surprise attacks lie in avoidable mistakes of certain intelligence officials. By examining the classic case of the Yom Kippur surprise attack, the paper finds the middle ground between the two schools. It distinguishes between the real limits facing analysts and surmountable obstacles. Based on this distinction it determines which problems can be corrected or mitigated and which cannot. It also provides criteria to determine the varying levels of difficulty for predicting attacks. Finally, it finds that intelligence inevitably involves making subjective judgments and utilizing experience correctly, and therefore successful prediction depends on the quality of the analysts.     

Conflict mitigation in Nigeria: the strategic conflict assessment

This article focuses on the methodology and objectives of the Strategic Conflict Assessment (SCA), the fieldwork for which was concluded in Nigeria in September 2002. It analyses its achievements, the lessons that it provides for the conflict-resolution community, and what might be gained by applying Edward Azar's notion of protracted social conflict (PSC) to the SCA.     

俄乌天然气争端的起因及影响

2009年初,俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的天然气争端硝烟再起,并再次发生断气事件,致使严重依赖俄天然气供应的欧洲18个国家不同程度地受到影响.经过艰苦谈判,欧盟、俄罗斯、乌克兰三方在1月12日签署天然气过境供应监测协议,俄乌两国并于1月19日签署2009-2019年天然气购销合同,1月20日俄罗斯正式恢复经乌克兰管道向欧洲供应天然气.由于诱发双方纷争的根源依然存在,俄乌矛盾不会因一纸协议彻底解决,两国围绕能源问题的博弈将成为常态.     

欧盟"宪法危机":根源及影响

今年5月29日和6月1日,法国和荷兰相继在全民公投中否决了《欧盟宪法条约》,这给欧盟历史上首部宪法的前途蒙上了阴影。媒体和舆论普遍认为,欧洲一体化遭遇了深刻危机。人们在广泛关注事件发展的同时不禁要问:在这部曾得到25国政府一致通过、支持的宪法条约遭到两个欧盟创始国民众的拒绝后,欧盟陷入了怎样的困境?当今世界这个一体化程度最高的国家间组织在发展中出现了哪些深层次问题?未来欧盟的“扩大”和“深化”会不会因此停顿下来?一体化前景的不确定性将对欧盟的国际地位以及欧美、中欧关系产生哪些影响?为此,我们特邀请中国现代国际关系研究院的几位专家举行对谈,希望能引起人们对欧洲一体化问题的更深入思考。     

Interpretive Filters: Social Cognition and the Impact of Turning Points in Negotiation

A number of studies have shown that certain events that occur during a negotiation can alter its course. Referred to as "turning points," these events are precipitated by actions taken either outside or inside the talks that have consequences for outcomes. In this article, we report the results of two experiments designed to examine the impacts of two types of precipitating actions, external and internal. In the first experiment, which focused on external actions, we found that crises — as opposed to breakthroughs — produced more movement in negotiations in which parties viewed the social climate positively (high trust, low power). We found that parties achieved less movement in negative social climates (low trust, high power).
In the second experiment, which focused on internal actions, we found that cooperative precipitants (factors inducing change) were more likely to occur when parties negotiated in the context of positive social climates. Negotiation outcomes were also influenced by the climate: we found better individual outcomes for negotiations that occurred in positive climates (high trust, cooperative orientations). Inboth experiments, the social climate of the negotiation moderated the effects of precipitating factors on negotiation outcomes. Perceptions of trust and power filter the way negotiators interpret actions that occur outside or are taken inside a negotiation, which can lead to agreements or impasses.     

ASEAN's diplomatic and security culture: a constructivist assessment

In the wake of the Asian financial crisis and the subsequentviolence that built up and then tore apart East Timor in 1999,serious criticisms were levelled at the Association of SoutheastAsian Nations (ASEAN) and its diplomatic and security culture.This article examines to what extent members of ASEAN –after the Hanoi Summit in 1998 until mid-2001 – collectivelyembraced new understandings in relation to norms associatedwith the ‘ASEAN way’. This question is exploredwith respect to four initiatives: the initiation of the retreatof ASEAN foreign ministers, the participation of ASEAN membersin United Nations missions in East Timor, the adoption of theASEAN Troika concept, and the passing of rules of procedureof the ASEAN High Council. It is argued that due to concernsabout ASEAN's image and reputation, some of the shared understandingsintrinsic to ASEAN's long-standing diplomatic and security culturehave been relaxed, particularly the principle of non-interference.While this development reaffirms the value of constructivisttheorizing in international relations, the article also demonstratesthat the aforementioned initiatives and agreements do not yetamount to a radical change in ASEAN's diplomatic and securityculture. The main reason for this is that norms associated withthe ‘ASEAN way’ are still perceived to serve theimportant and necessary function of helping to mediate estrangementand insecurity among ASEAN leaderships, as well as limitinginterference by non-ASEAN states.     

全球金融危机与我国的出口贸易:冲击与对策

面对这次百年一遇的全球性金融危机,各国政府推出了一系列稳定金融秩序、刺激经济增长的措施,但全球市场信心的恢复还需要一个过程.2008年11月6日,IMF将2009年世界经济增长预期下调至2.2%,发达国家整体下降0.3%,这将是二战以来首次出现下降,其中美国下降0.7%,欧元区下降0.5%,日本下降0.2%.新兴市场和发展中国家也下调到了5.1%.世界经济增长放缓不可避免地影响我国国际贸易的增长,根据海关统计,2008年我国进出口总额是25616.32亿美元,比前一年增长17.8%,其中出口14285.6亿美元,增长17.2%;进口11330.9亿美元,增长18.5%.与往年相比,增长速度大大下降.     

New NATO: Special Features and Impact on European Security

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO) has made two major strate-gic readjustments in the post-Cold War years to shake off the awkward posi-tion when its raison d'etre was called into doubt. At the 1991 Rome Summit, anAll-dimensional defense strategy was put forth with conflict prevention andcrisis management as its core mission. Preparations for the second strategic read-justment began in 1997 and the concept of a 21st century-oriented new strategywas declared at the Washington Summit last April.     

中缅边界问题的解决:过程与影响

中缅边界问题是新中国成立后解决的第一个边界问题。该问题的解决主要在于中国采取了立足现实的政策,因为中国力图通过边界问题的解决消除其他国家对中国的疑虑、谋求和平的周边环境、反制美国的对华遏制。中缅边界问题的解决将中缅关系推向了高潮,为解决缅甸国民党军问题提供了契机,并给印度造成了一定的压力。     

Gender impact assessment in microfinance and microenterprise: why and how

This article discusses the reasons for conducting gender impact assessment in microfinance and microenterprise. Although women are increasingly being targeted in microfinance and microenterprise projects, this does not necessarily mean that gender relations are being taken into account. Rather, targeting women raises a host of questions about the context in which women are operating their businesses or handling finance. Assessing gender impact in microfinance and microenterprise can help answer the questions in order to understand whether women are able to use the services and make the anticipated improvements in their livelihoods. Moreover, several approaches are suggested: 1) establish a gender baseline; 2) consider the potential impacts of the project on gender relations; 3) establish the information and indicators required; and 4) collect and analyze the data using tools and techniques appropriate to the task. However, in the context of gender relations there remains much ground, which often cannot be openly discussed. The discussion of how people organize their financial and economic affairs inside the household is usually a delicate area. Hence, it is suggested that such matters should be handled very carefully and to consider the composition and dynamics of the research team itself.