G20 institutional transition and global tax governance

The G20 is in transition from a short-term crisis institution to long-term steering institution, adopting a new ‘G20 + established international organization’ governance approach. In this approach, the main role of the G20 is to set the agenda and build political consensus for global economic governance. The established international organization provides the technical support and facilitates proposal implementation, while the precondition for the G20 institutional transition is that the emerging economies need to participate on an equal footing with the advanced economies. The case of global tax governance is among the few success stories of the G20's institutional transition. Within the ‘G20 + OECD’ governance architecture, the G20 builds the political consensus that the profits should be taxed where they are performed, while the OECD proposes the technical Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Action Plan. In this way, the G20's political leadership and the OECD's technical advantage complement each other, making a giant leap in global tax governance.     

The Asian financial crisis and financial reforms in China

Abstract

Although China has avoided the direct attack of the Asian financial crisis, it has suffered secondary consequences leading to an economic slowdown. More importantly, the plight of its neighboring countries has driven home the urgency of financial reforms as China shares many of the problems at the root of the crisis in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Korea. This article reviews the reform measures adopted by the Chinese government since the crisis. It analyzes the political dynamics of financial reforms in terms of state preferences and state capacities. In retrospect, the Asian financial crisis may well be seen as a turning point in reforming China's financial system.     

Democracy in crisis? The declining support for national democracy in European countries, 2007–2011

The Great Recession that started in 2007/2008 has been the worst economic downturn since the crisis of the 1930s in Europe. It led to a major sovereign debt crisis, which is arguably the biggest challenge for the European Union (EU) and its common currency. Not since the 1950s have advanced democracies experienced such a dramatic external imposition of austerity and structural reform policies through inter‐ or supranational organisations such as the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or as implicitly requested by international financial markets. Did this massive interference with the room for maneuver of parliaments and governments in many countries erode support for national democracy in the crisis since 2007? Did citizens realise that their national democratic institutions were no longer able to effectively decide on major economic and social policies, on economic and welfare state institutions? And did they react by concluding that this constrained democracy no longer merited further support? These are the questions guiding this article, which compares 26 EU countries in 2007–2011 and re‐analyses 78 national surveys. Aggregate data from these surveys is analysed in a time‐series cross‐section design to examine changes in democratic support at the country level. The hypotheses also are tested at the individual level by estimating a series of cross‐classified multilevel logistic regression models. Support for national democracy – operationalised as satisfaction with the way democracy works and as trust in parliament – declined dramatically during the crisis. This was caused both by international organisations and markets interfering with national democratic procedures and by the deteriorating situation of the national economy as perceived by individual citizens.     

Being a Public Manager in Times of Crisis: The Art of Managing Stakeholders,Political Masters,and Collaborative Networks

The COVID-19 pandemic is seen as the biggest crisis since World War II. What started out as a public health issue has quickly morphed into a political, economic, and societal crisis of epic proportions. Administrative capacity is a major factor in determining whether societies will emerge from this unprecedented situation with resilience and optimism or despair and disconnectedness, and whether trust in government will increase or decrease. Autonomous and competent public managers are key producers of such administrative capacity. This essay addresses those public managers, the unsung administrative heroes leading us through times of crisis from behind the scenes. Translating the state of the art in public administration literature, with a particular emphasis on publications in this journal, into accessible practitioner recommendations, it identifies three key competencies paramount to public managers in times of crisis: managing stakeholders, political masters, and collaborative networks.     

How Europe’s Political Leaders Made Sense of the Euro Crisis: The Influence of Pressure and Personality

The Greek announcement of its excessive debts led to one of the most severe crises the EU has faced since its inception. The crisis soon evolved into a full leadership crisis as European political leaders struggled to come up with a common solution to the challenges they faced. Theories of leadership and crisis management identify several factors that may contribute to these differences. This article examines to what extent leaders’ personal traits and external pressure influenced how six political leaders made sense of the situation. The study finds that a leader’s belief that they can control events, their self-confidence, as well as economic pressure provide a partial explanation of how European leaders make sense of the crisis. The traits of cognitive complexity and openness to information do not exert an influence in the cases discussed here. These findings indicate that any comprehensive understanding of how leaders make sense of crises should take note of specific individual as well as contextual factors.     

Korea and the global economic crisis

Abstract Korean policy-makers constructed the global economic crisis as a purely external threat to the domestic economy. This understanding of the crisis supported a selective retreat from neo-liberalism. More problematically, the construction of the crisis as an exogenous phenomenon allowed policy-makers to focus on maintaining short-term growth without seriously addressing the structural weaknesses of the economy that the crisis should have drawn attention to. Levels of household debt in Korea have risen since the crisis and are considerably higher than in the USA. Equally, the economy remains over reliant on exports as a source of growth.     

Kenya's election: risk of renewed violence

Kenya is preparing to hold its first set of presidential elections since 2007, when ethnic violence prompted by vote-rigging saw between 1,300 and 1,500 people killed and 300,000–600,000 internally displaced. The country has been relatively stable since the last crisis, but its underlying causes have not been fully addressed. Given Kenya's role as a regional economic, transport and diplomatic hub, fresh violence surrounding the 4 March vote could destabilise a fragile region.     

Marx at Karlsbad

ABSTRACT

The ongoing Syrian conflict has triggered one of the worst humanitarian emergencies and the largest refugee crisis of the post-World War II era. What are the political-ecological factors leading to the emergence and spread of this conflict? To what extent have ecological injustices played a triggering or accelerating role in the Syrian conflict? The main argument of this article is that one of the most important causes of the Syrian tragedy relates to the outbreak of a political-ecological crisis whose origins are to be found in the long-term consequences of Syria's (a) oil-centered extractivist model of development adopted since the 1970s and its legacy reflected in the government's failure to generate adequate livelihood; (b) neo-liberal restructuring that has widened inequalities and bankrupted the agriculture since 2000; and (c) environmentally blind policies that have neglected the severity of droughts, encouraged water-intensive crops and the over-exploitation of water resources, and failed to address the modernization of the irrigation infrastructure. The environmental aspects of this crisis also concern inter-state and political-cultural conflicts as they apply to the control of Syria's water resources by Turkey and the so-called Islamic State.     

Time for a New Paradigm? Past and Present Transitions in Economic Policy

This article seeks to place the UK's present economic ‘moment’ in historical context. Over the course of the decade since the 2007 financial crisis, it has increasingly been acknowledged that a cyclical crisis has become a structural crisis. The failure of most economists to predict the financial crash in the first place, and the inadequacy of economic policy in responding to its lasting effects, has led many to conclude that economics itself is in crisis. This article seeks to contribute to a better understanding of the present period of disjuncture. Drawing on theories of paradigm shift from both the physical and social sciences, we argue that the speed of change in UK economic policy is comparable to the two major historical transitions that ended with the post‐war consensus and neoliberalism. We conclude by offering some remarks on how and where the present change might take us.     

Financial industry groups' adaptation to the post‐crisis regulatory environment: Changing approaches to the policy cycle

This article explores the advocacy efforts of financial industry groups since the financial crisis. I describe key changes in the post‐crisis financial regulatory environment and argue that financial industry groups have adapted their advocacy strategies to these new conditions in innovative ways. Faced with a more challenging environment, financial industry groups have shifted their emphasis along the different stages of the policy cycle. Specifically, increased issue salience and a strained policy network have weakened financial industry groups' capacity to veto regulatory proposals at the stage of actual policy formulation. Focusing on the advocacy strategies of the global banking and derivatives industries, I show evidence that the response has been to invest in more subtle advocacy strategies which focus on other stages of the policymaking cycle. Self‐regulatory moves attempt to affect the agenda setting stage of policymaking, and a strong focus on the timing, rather than the content of new regulations, has attempted to affect the implementation stage. Such a transformation of advocacy strategies differs sharply from most depictions of financial industry groups simply “blocking” regulatory change since the global financial crisis.     

以社会主义核心价值体系引领公共危机管理中的行政精神建设

公共危机突发事件对公共行政管理是一个巨大的挑战,公共危机的管理需要政府行政精神的支撑,因为行政精神是公共行政管理的灵魂和核心。要塑造有强大支撑力的行政精神又必须以社会主义核心价值体系为指导,作为我国社会价值体系中的核心,社会主义核心价值体系以其广泛的适用性和包容性以及强大的整合力和引领力,决定着公共危机管理中的行政精神的价值目标。     

The present crisis in historical perspectiveTitle ∗

The present crisis of capitalism differs from that of the 1930s in major ways. Investment has not collapsed, macroeconomic policy has moved away from instead of towards Keynesian ideas, and economic class conflict has played an important role. The rise of class conflict is attributed to structural, political and ideological changes in the advanced capitalist countries, and macroeconomic policy developments are interpreted as a response to the resulting difficulties. Reasons are advanced for the bouyancy of investment spending since 1973.     

Immigration and the sociocultural divide in Central and Eastern Europe: Stasis or evolution?

Immigration has historically been of low salience in Central and Eastern Europe. Yet, the region has consistently higher levels of ethnocentrism than the rest of Europe. Scholars argue that the East's limited politicization of immigration is due to its status as a region of emigration and the presence of ethnic minority ‘others’. I argue that this is changing. The politicization of the European refugee crisis by domestic elites has begun to refocus the sociocultural dimension on the immigration issue. Using structural equation models, I compare European Values Study data from 2008 and 2017 across 10 East European EU member states. I find evidence that traditionalist attitudes are more strongly related to anti-immigration attitudes since the crisis, particularly for those who are interested in politics. Further, immigration attitudes are polarizing across the GAL-TAN dimension and by education. Hence, immigration is bolstering a pre-existing, socially structured divide around both nationalist and traditionalist values.     

The theory of value and the value of theory — a reply to Cutler et al.

Abstract

Serving as a pledge against a future promise, collateral has traditionally been understood as a ‘back office’ technicality that reduces the risk of default. Yet in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the erosion of faith among market participants in the credit quality of large banks, collateral is playing an increasingly important epistemic role within finance, as an anchor that underpins the valuation of a growing number of financial instruments. This paper explores the increasing importance of collateral to the modelling practices used by ‘quants’ to value ‘over-the-counter’ interest rate derivatives since the 2008 financial crisis, and how the inclusion of collateral expertise into quants’ own modelling practices has affected these markets. This historical episode suggests that while the inclusion of collateral expertise into banks’ front office modelling practices has made banks’ pricing models less abstract and more aligned to the traditionally overlooked legal practices that underpin derivatives trading, it has also led to an explosion of complexity in the valuation of these instruments that now threatens the future existence of these markets.     

From Crisis to Opportunity: Human Resource Challenges for the Public Sector in the Twenty-First Century

A great deal of attention has been focused on the human capital crisis in the public sector since the mid-1990s. Experts and practitioners give many reasons why the current crisis emerged. This article examines the important factors that led to the crisis, what is being done about them through presidential agendas, legislators, oversight agencies, professional societies, and public policy think tanks. Concerns are many in terms of a large number of upcoming retirements, early retirements, unplanned downsizing, difficulty in attracting new generations to public service, and the changing nature of public service. However, the human resource crisis also presents an opportunity to fundamentally change those features of public sector human resource management practices that have become outdated for contemporary organizations and position government agencies for the twenty-first century by meaningfully reforming the civil service. This transformation would require public sector organizations to take a more strategic view of human resource management and to give greater policy attention to human capital issues.     

Capturing the Moment? Crisis,Market Accountability,and the Limits of Legitimation

This article extends the concept of regulatory capture to a prominent element of responses to the 2007–2008 global financial crisis overlooked in political science: the out-of-court settlements undertaken between regulators and financial firms. In outsourcing accountability to markets and diverging from previous crisis responses, these billion dollar agreements have remained highly controversial. How have financial regulators sought to legitimate this novel approach to post-crisis accountability? Contrasting material and cognitive conceptions of regulatory capture, I illustrate how American financial regulators have persistently prioritized market values in self-legitimating post-crisis financial accountability. Inconsistencies in the stress on transparency and growth, however, are shown to undermine the wider legitimation of this market-based approach. These limits underpin the scepticism with which post-crisis settlements have been received, as well as to the broader sense that accountability for the most severe period of volatility since the Great Depression has remained lacking.     

The judicialisation of EMU politics: Resistance to the EU's new economic governance mechanisms at the domestic level

Courts are increasingly asked to deal with fundamental political disagreements in liberal democracies. Because of its political salience and the extent of its consequences, the crisis of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has exposed such fundamental disagreements between and within its member states, which numerous plaintiffs have brought before domestic courts and the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). This article analyses this judicialisation of the EMU crisis. Using a database on lawsuits introduced in all 28 member states with regard to crisis measures and the new EMU governance mechanisms introduced since 2010, the authors study which actors use the courts and under which circumstances. Based on a combination of judicialisation and political economy approaches, the article develops a series of assumptions on actors’ motivations in order to understand the reasons for judicialisation in debtor and creditor countries.     

‘Forever Temporary’: Migrants in Calais,Then and Now

This article examines two recent refugee crises in Calais: the debate around the Sangatte refugee camp, which was resolved in 2002, and the ongoing problems in Calais, which have been escalating since autumn 2014. It asks: why are these events repeating? What, if anything, has changed between 2002 and now? It points to a number of new developments since 2002, such as growing numbers of migrants worldwide, and a changing European political and legal landscape. But it also argues that a number of the same factors that led to the Sangatte crisis are still shaping events and responses in Calais today. They concern the persistent shortcomings of European states’ immigration controls, the failures to reach Europe‐wide and international agreements on migration, and the inadequacies of international bodies such as the UNHCR and the 1951 Refugee Convention which it upholds.     

Climate change policy discontinuity and its effects on Australia's national electricity market

Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM) became unstable in 2016/2017 after 20 years of consistent performance. The South Australian grid collapsed on 28 September 2016 – Australia's first black system event since 1964. Wholesale prices in the region trebled to $120+/MWh; soon after Hazelwood power station announced its exit with just 5 months’ notice. The problem spread as prices elsewhere doubled to $89/MWh from a long‐run average of $42.50. The NEM is experiencing a supply‐side crisis. Consistent with the requirement to decarbonise the system, aged coal‐fired generators are exiting but decades of climate change policy discontinuity has frustrated the entry of new plant. Long‐dated capital‐intensive asset industries like electricity supply anticipate a conventional policy cycle. What they have experienced instead is consistent with garbage can theory. Policy clarity may be emerging for only the second time in two decades. As with the NEM, its durability will depend on cooperative federalism.     

Economy,state and civil society

The paper identifies a double crisis of agency facing socialists-the inability of the state to act effectively as the agent of society as a whole, and of the party adequately to represent the diversity of people's interests. It argues that this crisis can be resolved by the development of civil society, enabling the exercise of social control over the state and the economy.

An institutional framework for participatory economic democracy is then outlined, based on the author's model of 'negotiated co-ordination'. The model incorporates market exchange, since enterprises use their existing capacity to meet market demand, but not market forces, since interdependent investment decisions are not taken separately by enterprises acting independently, but collectively through negotiation involving all those with an interest in their combined outcome.

The model is constructed on this basic principle of self-government-that decisions should be taken by those affected by them. The conclusion reached is that the dual crisis of agency can be resolved by the development of civil society, but that a role remains for the state, in resolving residual conflicts of interest when negotiation fails to produce agreement, and for political parties, in promoting alternative perspectives on the distribution of resources, rights and responsibilities.