Reservations,Exclusion, and Conflict: Some Insights From Mandal and Mysore

Caste-based reservations (quotas) in government jobs and admissions to educational institutions in India have been associated with bouts of sometimes intense social conflict. The debate about this conflict has focused primarily on the case for and against reservations per se. Even when variations have been noticed in the degree of conflict generated by reservations across regions, the tendency has been to attribute the differences to local social conditions. Very little attention has been paid to the question of whether the type of reservations implemented in each region influences the nature and extent of conflict. This article attempts to answer this question by comparing the Mandal Commission Report with the experience of princely Mysore, and later Karnataka. Abstracting from these experiences, the article develops two concepts: reservations with exclusion and reservations without exclusion. It goes on to argue that reservations with exclusion create greater conflict.     

Security and development in the Caucasus

This article discusses the linkage between security and development in the Caucasus. In particular, it examines the degree to which developmental dysfunction has been a significant cause of conflict, the extent to which conflict has distorted the region's economic transition, and the role of development assistance in fostering conflict resolution. The article argues that the region's conflicts have had locally significant economic consequences and that they make it difficult for the region's states to cushion the effects of post‐communist economic transition. However, the collapse of command economies and the failure of governance have a stronger causal role in explaining the economic collapse and the halting quality of economic recovery. Turning to the role of development assistance in conflict resolution, aid agencies and donors have been reluctant to use development assistance as an instrument of conflict resolution. However, there has been some success in using micro‐level assistance to foster reconciliation between communities.     

Abuse of power and conflict persistence in Afghanistan

The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan presents a paradox. While international efforts to stabilise the country have been steadily increasing since 2001, the same period has been marked by a return to violence and constant escalation of the conflict. The Taliban's growing strength is often attributed to the weakness of the Afghan state in extending authority and delivering public goods. Less attention has been paid to the ways in which power and authority are exercised and experienced in Afghanistan. In the current system of governance, abuse of power has become endemic and has emerged as a major driver of persistent conflict. This paper examines some of the key actors and forms of abuse and identifies a set of mechanisms by which abuse of power stimulates conflict persistence.     

Altering conflict attitudes through prenegotiation contact

This experiment investigates the hypothesis that prenegotiation contact improves conflict attitudes between adversaries. Many different literatures theoretically support variations on this theme, but there has been very little empirical work which directly tests the idea. Using experimental methodology and an international conflict simulation to collect data, the findings from this study demonstrate that there is a strong recasting effect associated with prenegotiation contact. Attitudes are changed in relation to the conflict in general, views of the opponent, and views of self. While the results strongly support the positive effect of prenegotiation contact upon conflict attitudes, important questions are raised regarding other theoretical and empirical dimensions of the process as it relates to international conflict resolution.     

Social Psychology's Contributions to the Study of Conflict Resolution

This essay presents an indication of the major research questions addressed in the literature of social psychology related to conflict resolution, as well as a historical perspective to see what progress has been made in this area. Highlighted at the conclusion of a section on contemporary themes in conflict studies is the author's consideration of what we know (and need to know) about conflict resolution and overcoming oppression. The author also offers an assessment of the progress thus far in the methodological, conceptual, empirical, and technological domains in the social psychological study of conflict.     

The changing phases of the Niger Delta conflict: implications for conflict escalation and the return of peace

This paper discusses the nature and dynamics of the Niger Delta conflict and traces the structural origin of the conflict to a dysfunctional Nigerian ‘state-nation’ that is a product of colonisation. The paper argues that the conflict is best understood as a process viewed in terms of nests or phases. Building on previous findings on the aetiology of African conflicts and contemporary scholarship on African politics, the paper identifies how different phases of the Niger Delta conflict interact to impel the conflict toward escalation. Consequently, it is argued that both the ‘marginalisation-relative deprivation’ and the ‘political economy of war’ theses have been instrumental in furthering our understanding of the conflict along different lines. However, the tendency for both perspectives to claim superiority over the other has meant that each only offers a partial truth and is therefore unable to explain the increasing intensity and longevity of the Niger Delta conflict. Indeed, it is shown how these theses feed into the discursive struggle between militants, militant entrepreneurs and the Nigerian Government in ways that allow for the commodification of the Niger Delta people. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of the emerging issues for the return of peace in the Niger Delta.     

Pioneers of peace research VII: Edward E. Azar: Apostle of events

Azar's COPDAB is the most comprehensive world events data bank for the years 1948–1978. His scale from cooperation to conflict has been researched more than any other such scale. More research is needed on the concepts of cooperation and conflict so far as these have been operationalized by judges’ values. While cooperation is generally desirable in our culture, and conflict is generally undesirable, empirical results suggest that cooperation also has its undesirable component and conflict also has its desirable component, so far as it is sometimes directed toward the elimination or reduction of structural violence. Consequently, both cooperation and conflict are more complicated than they seemed at first glance. Events data have their limitations in that they hardly explain themselves, so that events studies have to be supplemented by attitude studies, attribute studies, historical studies, and social studies. Peace was defined in terms of containing and managing behavioral violence in the beginning of Azar's work, but it was later defined in terms of development defined in terms of equality rather than growth. Since the research results themselves motivated these theoretical changes, this suggested that peace research is a self‐correcting and self‐developing process that facilitates and promotes its own progress.     

The co-ordination of conflict prevention and development aid in southern Georgia

This article examines how various organisations co-ordinate conflict prevention and development aid in the Samtskhe-Javakheti region of southern Georgia, and how this co-ordination might be improved. Several contradicting perspectives are pitted against one another to arrive at a comprehensive understanding of the region’s troubles and the manner in which these multilateral, bilateral, local, regional and nongovernmental actors have dealt with them. The paper pays particular attention to the question of whether organisations working in Samtskhe-Javakheti should focus on development assistance or conflict prevention, and whether early warning about the region has been exaggerated and uncoordinated. It concludes that there has been a reasonable balance between development aid and conflict prevention, that early warning has mostly been cautious, and that there has been considerable information sharing and synchronisation between agencies. However, this co-ordination has depended on a number of non-governmental organisations performing co-ordinating roles on their own initiative.     

Geographic Opportunity and Neomalthusian Willingness: Boundaries,Shared Rivers,and Conflict

International conflict has been analyzed extensively through the framework of opportunity and willingness. Opportunity has mainly been operationalized as physical proximity. Willingness has been measured in a number of ways, and remains a somewhat more elusive concept. Several scholars have called for boundary length to represent opportunity. Heeding such calls, Harvey Starr has used GIS methods to generate boundary length for 1993 and has found it to be associated with increased propensity to conflict. A number of his measures of willingness were not. Using a new and much more extensive dataset on boundary length for the entire Correlates of War period, this article finds very different results. We study the relationship with shared rivers and water scarcity as measures of neomalthusian factors in willingness over a 110-year period. The results indicate that the neomalthusian factors are significant although not dramatic in their effects. Boundary length, while associated with conflict in a bivariate analysis, fades into insignificance when the neomalthusian willingness measures are introduced.     

Can development prevent conflict? Integrated area-based development in the Western Balkans

The increasingly active role of international organisations in conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction in recent years has been complemented by a continuous shift from humanitarian assistance to a more holistic and sustainable response to complex emergencies. Concentrating on a sub-national level, the article analyses the potential and practical results of the area-based development approach (ABD) in contributing to conflict prevention and linking reconstruction and development. Firstly, it analyses the theoretical and methodological underpinnings of the approach in light of current academic discourse on conflict and reconstruction. Secondly, it assesses the practical contribution of two ABD programmes in South and Southwest Serbia to conflict prevention and development. Based on these findings it summarises and discusses key strengths and limitations of the approach. It argues that although ABD is often effective in responding to complex conflict characteristics on sub-national levels, under its current conceptualisation, it suffers from a limited ability to respond to the full complexity of issues related to conflict and development on multiple levels. The contradiction in the terms ‘integrated’ and ‘area-based’ needs to be addressed both conceptually and in practical applications, and the article formulates recommendations for the improvement of the approach in this respect.     

New light on the Cold War?

The Cold War has traditionally been interpreted in moral terms, but it turns out that statesmen were less ideological and far more sensitive to the logic of power than we had been led to believe. It thus makes sense to interpret that conflict in a new way — or really in much the same way as international politics has traditionally been interpreted: as a political conflict, in which power factors loomed large, and about which moral judgements are problematic. This basic claim is supported by some key examples relating to the Potsdam Conference, the Berlin Crisis and the Kennedy period.     

The liberian civil war: new war/old war?

The Liberian civil war has been portrayed as a primary example of ‘new wars’, drawing attention both to the economic motives and the global character of the conflict. However, to focus excessively on material explanations and greed-inspired motivations of actors may lead to one-sided explanations of conflict. This article suggests that there is little ‘new’ about the Liberian war. Rather, it can best be understood as a violent expression of the tendencies, organisation and attitudes towards identity, society and class that have underpinned Liberia since its formation in the 19th century. The ‘new war’ literature helps us to understand one important dimension of the Liberian conflict. However, too much emphasis on this dimension may also lead scholars and policy-makers to neglect the ideational aspect of conflict. These are of immense importance to a full understanding of civil war and its dynamics.     

Acts of Truth Telling and Testimony in the Conceptualisation of Reparations in Post-conflict Peru

ABSTRACT

The internal armed conflict of Peru (1980–2000), a struggle which saw the rise of various guerrilla movements, notably Shining Path, against the State, left an estimated 69,280 fatalities and countless survivors of human rights violations. Among the victims, particularly toward the end of the conflict, were over 300,000 indigenous, predominantly illiterate, women in impoverished rural communities who had been targeted by State officials and forced into undergoing sterilisation surgeries. To date, no reparation has been enacted in response. This article reviews acts of truth telling, in particular the use of oral testimony within the project of Quipu, of the victims of these enforced sterilisations, as a nonviolent method of historical justice. The article finds that calls for violent social justice (that is, the internal armed conflict) have not protected the rights of the most vulnerable (among them, indigenous women), though arms may have been taken up in an attempt to do so, but have in fact increased the forms of violence within the armed conflict. By contrast, testimony as nonviolent action protects victims’ right to the truth and their right to resist, as it turns against violent histories and toward possible reparation.     

WarViews: Visualizing and Animating Geographic Data on Civil War

In the recent years, the field of conflict research has produced new findings on the relation between conflict and geography. In doing so, new data sets have been created with the help of GIS software. These data sets include variables relevant for the study of conflict with a spatial component. However, the use of geographic data requires specialized software and substantial training and therefore involves high entry costs for researchers and practitioners. This paper introduces the WarViews project whose aim is to create an easy-to-use front end for the exploration of GIS data on conflict. It takes advantage of the recent proliferation of Internet-based geographic software and makes geographic data on conflict available for these tools. With WarViews, geographic data on conflict can be accessed, browsed, and time-animated in a few mouse clicks, using only standard software. As a result, a wider audience can take advantage of the valuable data contained in these databases, for example, as supplementary data for conflict case studies or for classroom demonstrations. We present two versions of WarViews. The static version runs in a web browser and allows the user to switch between different data sets. The dynamic version is based on Google Earth and can time-animate geographic data such that the development over time can be monitored. The WarViews website can be freely accessed at http://www.icr.ethz.ch/research/warviews .     

“The Greatest Success of British Diplomacy in East Asia in Recent Years”? British Diplomacy and the Ending of Confrontation, 1965–1966

Arthur de la Mare, an under-secretary of state at the British Foreign Office, wrote in 1967 that the ending of the Malaysia–Indonesia Confrontation of 1963–1966 was “the greatest success of British diplomacy in East Asia in recent years.” However, historians generally believe British influence in the process to end this conflict was extremely limited, as it has been widely accepted that this conflict ended through bilateral negotiations between Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur. On one level, this view is accurate, but “Confrontation” took months to end and, during this process, British, American, and Malaysian officials hoped to encourage a change in leadership in Jakarta and an eventual end to the conflict. Confrontation was an anti-colonial and a regional dispute greatly affected by the Cold War environment in Southeast Asia and, therefore, not immune from international events or actors, especially the final phase of the conflict.     

Moldova and Transdniestria: Painful past,deadlocked present,uncertain future

The ethnic conflict between Slavs and Moldovans in the Moldovan region of Transdniestria is one of the lesser‐known post‐Soviet conflicts, as, mercifully, its scale never reached that of conflict in Chechnya or Nagorny‐Karabakh. Nevertheless, this conflict, which started in 1990 after the Russian‐speaking Slavic minority on the left bank of the Dniester declared its independence from the Romanian‐speaking right bank, has claimed hundreds of lives. Today, it remains unresolved; a political settlement has not been achieved. The frozen ceasefire in the region simply preserved the status quo which is virtual independence for the self‐declared, but not recognised by any other state, Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), or Dniester Republic, from Moldova.

This work seeks to attempt to answer the following questions: what were the roots of the ethno‐political conflict in Moldova ? What were the circumstances that prompted the escalation of the conflict into bloodshed? To what extent did external forces influence events, and, finally, what are the prospects for a political settlement in the republic?     

Explaining divergent responses to ethnic exclusion: evidence from two paired comparisons

This article asks why ethnic exclusion from executive-level state power leads to armed conflict in some cases but not in others. To answer this question the author develops a nine-factor model of ethnic conflict, which is used to investigate the diverging conflict trajectories of two pairs of ‘most similar’ ethnic groups. These include the Malinke in Guinea and Northerners in Côte d'Ivoire on the one hand, and Kurds in Syria and Turkey on the other. It is shown that varying responses to ethnic exclusion can mainly be traced back to three factors, which have so far been neglected in the ethnic conflict literature: the selectivity of state violence, the territorial reach of the state and the availability of cross-border sanctuaries. Ethnic rebellion occurs where weak territorial control and indiscriminate repression combine with external sanctuary. Conversely, violent escalation is avoided in a context of strong territorial control, selective repression and no external sanctuary.     

Conflict and gender: the implications of the Burundian conflict on HIV/AIDS risks

Sexual and gender-based violence in many conflict and post-conflict contexts are creating vulnerabilities to HIV. The paper is based on research conducted in Burundi in 2007–2008.The country experienced long-term civil war from the early 1990s until recently and has been the locus of post-conflict disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programmes, providing a coherent and focused study. The research finds that the relationship between conflict and HIV/AIDS is a function of pre-existing gender relations that also regulate sexual life and determine critical female vulnerabilities. When put under stress by armed conflict, these vulnerabilities become amplified, creating conditions for the increased spread of HIV. Analysis of how gender relations and vulnerabilities change according to the specific social and economic circumstances generated by military mobilisation, organisation and deployment, in relation to civilian displacement and insecurity, in a range of distinct circumstances, provides a framework for understanding HIV vulnerabilities during and after the conflict.