The future of crime in the united states from now to the year 2000

Societal factors are identified which are driving toward qualitative and quantitative changes in the pattern of crime in the United States. Some of these factors will amplify while others will diminish the importance of current categories of crime. They will also lead to new crimes or increased relative significance to certain crime categories. On the other hand, the interaction of these factors also may lead to the virtual extinguishment of some crimes or to their removal from the rosters of illegality. Against that background some opportunities and needs for public policy decisions and related research are suggested.Presented at the First Assembly of The World Future Society, Washington, D.C., May 14, 1971.The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not imply endorsement of factual accuracy or opinion by the National Science Foundation, Departments of the U.S. Government, or any organization with which the author is associated.     

Big Five Personality Traits and Responses to Persuasive Appeals: Results from Voter Turnout Experiments

We examine whether Big Five personality traits are associated with heterogeneous responses to commonly used Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) appeals in both a survey and a field experiment. The results suggest that Big Five personality traits affect how people respond to the costs and benefits of voting highlighted in GOTV appeals. Our evidence also suggests that one trait—Openness—is associated with broad persuasibility, while others shape responses to particular types of messages. In some cases the conditioning effects of Big Five traits are substantial. For example, in the one-voter households (HHs) included in our field experiment, we find that a mailer that raised the specter of social sanctions increased the likelihood of voting by a statistically greater amount among those scoring high on Openness. The findings constitute an important step forward in understanding how core personality traits shape responses to various aspects of the act of voting.     

Cultivating small business influence in the UK: the federation of small businesses' journey from outsider to insider

This case study charts the classic transformation of a small business organisation from being a vehicle of protest that attracted a reasonable but transient membership into a much larger group with a more stable membership and a group with an effective insider policy style. The paper asserts that the change in style and the change in recruiting success are not causally linked, and, indeed, it claims that an insider style may harm recruiting. In the case of the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB), however, any potential damage through adopting an insider style was more than offset by the separate decision to market the group door to door with a package of selective material incentives (Olson 1965). The paper describes the predominant insider politics style of political representation and finds that while the FSB has moved in that direction, it does not fully fit the stereotype. Copyright © 2003 Henry Stewart Publications     

Child characteristics and successful use of housing vouchers: Estimates from the moving to opportunity demonstration

Abstract

Voucher‐based programs have become the most common form of housing assistance for low‐income families in the United States, yet only a slim majority of households that are offered vouchers actually move with them. This article uses data from 2,938 households in the Moving to Opportunity demonstration program to examine whether child characteristics influence the probability that a household will successfully use a housing voucher to lease‐up.

Our results suggest that while many child characteristics have little bearing on the use of housing vouchers, child health, behavioral, and educational problems, particularly the presence of multiple problems in a household, do have an influence. Households with two or more child problems are 7 percentage points less likely to move than those who have none of these problems or only one. Results suggest that such families may need additional support to benefit from housing vouchers or alternative types of affordable housing units.     

大数据时代反腐情报收集的障碍及其解决途径

大数据时代的到来为反腐情报收集工作带来了巨大便利,促使反腐情报收集范围愈发宽广,收集成本普遍降低,微观信息的整合更加容易。但因大数据时代的反腐情报信息总量过于庞杂、反腐情报真伪难辨、情报收集容易丧失个性化且极易损害民众合法权益,给反腐情报收集造成了障碍。要化解这些障碍,可以从尽快打造专门性的大数据时代反腐情报控制平台、进行有针对性的个性化反腐情报收集和完善相关法律法规保障民众合法权益三方面予以消解。     

Struggling to stay out of high-poverty neighborhoods: housing choice and locations in moving to opportunity's first decade

Improving locational outcomes emerged as a major policy hope for the nation's largest low-income housing program over the past two decades, but a host of supply and demand-side barriers confront rental voucher users, leading to heated debate over the importance of choice versus constraint. In this context, we examine the Moving to Opportunity experiment's first decade, using a mixed-method approach.

MTO families faced major barriers in tightening markets, yet diverse housing trajectories emerged, reflecting variation in: (a) willingness to trade location – in particular, safety and avoidance of “ghetto” behavior – to get larger, better housing units after initial relocation; (b) the distribution of neighborhood types in different metro areas; and (c) circumstances that produced many involuntary moves. Access to social networks or services “left behind” in poorer neighborhoods seldom drove moving decisions. Numerous moves were brokered by rental agents who provided shortcuts to willing landlords but thereby steered participants to particular neighborhoods.     

Performance measurement in Australian water utilities. Current state and future directions

Ensuring universal and affordable water supply is a central objective of government. An efficient water supply sector plays a primary role in ensuring this objective is met. Scale economies and capital-intensive immobile assets means monopoly emerges as the dominant organizational form, and when combined with an essential character, a strong case exists for economic and technical regulation. Yet diversity in water service provider scale means economic regulation, which is costly, is not always viable. A comprehensive performance monitoring and reporting regime for water service providers is thus crucial. It is crucial for oversight of unregulated entities, and for regulated entities in generating competition by comparison. In this article, we undertake an expansive literature review and summarize approaches to performance measurement by the water industry. Academic literature reveals researchers have centered their approach using comprehensive methods such as data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis. With the exception of the Victorian Essential Services Commission, the Australian Industry persists with partial indicators. Given water and sewerage price increases of more than 100% in real terms from 2005 to 2014, we find a strong case for implementing advanced methods to address the task of providing a holistic picture of utility performance.     

Looking to the future: Prospective economic voting in 2008 Presidential Elections

Despite the economic turmoil of the time, a typical study of vote choice in the 2008 US Presidential Election would (falsely) find little evidence that voters’ opinions about the future state of the economy affected their vote choice. We argue that this misleading conclusion results from serious measurement error in the standard prospective economic evaluations survey question. Relying instead on a revised question, included for the first time in the 2008 American National Election Study, we find that most respondents condition their prospective economic evaluations on potential election outcomes, and that these evaluations are an important determinant of vote choice. A replication in a very different political context – the 2008 Ghanaian election – yields similar results.     

NGOs in a global future: marrying local delivery to worldwide leverage

This article argues that global trends are creating unprecedented opportunities for civic action at local, national and international levels. Three interconnected trends are identified: economic and cultural globalization, and the inequality and insecurity they breed; the increasing complexity of humanitarian action in response to ethnic conflict and intrastate violence; and the reform of international co‐operation to deal with the problems these trends create. In response, new forms of solidarity are emerging between citizens and authorities at different levels of the world system. It is these new relationships—expressed through partnerships, alliances and other forms of co‐operation—that provide the framework for NGO interventions, but they also require major changes in NGOs themselves. Chief among these changes are a move from ‘development‐as‐delivery’ to ‘development‐as‐leverage’; new relationships with corporations, elements of states, the military, international institutions and other groups in civil society; and new skills and capacities to mediate these linkages. These developments call for major changes in NGO roles, relationships, capacities and accountabilities. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modernization is alive and well and living in . . .

Democracy in Developing Countries, edited by Larry Diamond, Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset. Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder, Co.; Adamantine Press Ltd, London. (Vol. 1, in preparation; vol. 2, 1988; vols. 3 and 4, 1989.) Volume Two, Africa, xxix+314 pp., maps. £25.00 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–039–2 and 1–55587–040–6. Volume Three, Asia, xxix+489 pp. £29.50 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–041–4 and 1–55587–042–2. Volume Three, Latin America. xxix+515 pp. £29.50 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–043–0 and 1–55587–044–9.     

But our citizenship is in heaven: a proposal for the future study of Christian citizenship in the global south

For a field whose continual points of departure have been such Christian themes as belonging responsibility, and stewardship, and whose current conceptual framing prioritizes transnational processes and globalization's cultural complexities, astoundingly little has been written in citizenship studies about global Pentecostal and charismatic Christianity. In critical response, this article addresses how scholars of citizenship might begin to think about global Pentecostal and charismatic Christianity and, more importantly, about the formation of Christian citizenship in the global south: in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Using the Guatemalan context as a case study, this article proposes a new way of thinking about contemporary formations of Christian citizenship. The article follows the work of Michel Foucault to see Christian citizenship as a political rationality for millions of believers at everyday levels of action and practice.     

Divorced women at retirement: projections of economic well-being in the near future.

The Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) data system projects retirement income for persons retiring in the 1990s through 2020. Using those data, we examine the economic well-being of divorced women at retirement. The MINT data system improves upon previous estimates of Social Security benefits by: Measuring and projecting years of marriage to determine if the 10-year requirement has been met, Projecting lifetime earnings until retirement and eligibility for Social Security retirement benefits, and Estimating lifetime earnings of former spouses. MINT also makes independent projections of each retiree's income from pensions, assets, and earnings (for working beneficiaries). As a result of changes in marital patterns, MINT projects that the proportion of women who are divorced will increase. At the same time, the proportion of those women who are eligible for auxiliary benefits is projected to decrease, for two main reasons. First, changes in women's earnings and work patterns result in more women receiving retired-worker benefits based on their own earnings. Second, an increased number of divorced women will not meet the 10-year marriage requirement for auxiliary benefits. Despite the projected decrease over time in eligibility rates for auxiliary benefits, the level of Social Security benefits is projected to change little between the older and younger birth cohorts of divorced women entering retirement. According to the MINT data, the most vulnerable of divorced women will be those who have not met the 10-year marriage requirement. Poverty rates will be higher for them than for all other divorced women. This group of divorced women is projected to grow as more and more women divorce from shorter marriages. With more women divorcing and with fewer divorced women meeting the 10-year marriage requirement, the proportion of economically vulnerable aged women will increase when the baby boom retires. Further research is warranted on this long neglected subject. Analyses of divorced women's economic well-being by major socioeconomic characteristics such as race and ethnicity and education are of particular interest. Such analyses can be supported by the MINT data system.