IMF Conditionality,Government Partisanship,and the Progress of Economic Reforms

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) often seeks to influence countries' domestic public policy via varying levels of conditionality—linking financial support to borrowing governments' commitment to policy reforms. When does extensive conditionality encourage domestic economic reforms and when does it impede them? We argue that, rather than universally benefiting or harming reforms, the effects of stricter IMF conditionality depend on domestic partisan politics. More IMF conditions can pressure left‐wing governments into undertaking more ambitious reforms with little resistance from partisan rivals on the right; under right governments, however, more conditions hinder reform implementation by heightening resistance from the left while simultaneously reducing leaders' ability to win their support through concessions or compromise. Using data on post‐communist IMF programs for the period 1994–2010, we find robust evidence supporting these claims, even after addressing the endogeneity of IMF programs via instrumental variables analysis.     

Can process conditionality enhance aid effectiveness?

Can process conditionality enhance poverty reduction in developing countries? We address this question in a political-economic framework with political distortions on the recipient and the donor side. Process conditionality is a useful tool only if the international financial institutions hold all necessary information to assess the political situation in recipient countries and to select the true representatives of the poor into a participatory process. If they do not hold this information or if bureaucratic interests reduce their incentive to acquire this information, process conditionality loses its effectiveness.     

Agree to reform? The political economy of conditionality variation in International Monetary Fund lending, 1983–1997

Abstract.  This article analyzes variation in International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditionality. Conditions attached to IMF loans vary qualitatively and quantitatively across time and space, contrary to the allegations of inflexibility and insensitivity. This study theorizes that despite the IMF's official rules to determine conditionality by economic criteria, variation arises because the strategic interests of the five biggest contributors to the IMF (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France) interfere with IMF policy, which potentially compromises the effectiveness of its programs. This theory is tested empirically against 398 conditionality agreements contracted between 1983 and 1997 using an event-count method based on the Poisson distribution to obtain statistical results supportive of the theory.     

Enlargement,Institution-Building and the EU's Administrative Capacity Requirement

Does the EU governance of the Central and Eastern European candidate states unleash a process of Europeanisation? It is argued here that the current enlargement has generated its own mode of governance, characterised by asymmetry and conditionality. Enlargement governance has recently focused on developing administrative capacity or 'institution-building', defined as the creation of institutions necessary for the adoption and implementation of the acquis communautaire. This article examines horizontal administrative reform and attempts to define the conditions determining the success or failure of the EU's efforts in institution-building. The absence of common EU rules and norms, and the variation of domestic preferences about administrative reform, lead to varying degrees of success in administrative institution-building.     

Conditionality,coercion and other forms of ‘Power’: international financial institutions in the Pacific

Research on conditionality has cast doubt on its effectiveness. Nevertheless, international financial institutions have continued to apply policy conditions to loans to developing country governments. The article aims to contribute to the current debate about conditionality in two ways. Empirically, it introduces recent evidence from countries and institutions not included in earlier studies (the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in Papua New Guinea, and the Asian Development Bank in the South Pacific). Conceptually, it introduces arguments from political science to extend our understanding of the power relationships involved. Some conditions have clearly been applied coercively, particularly on ‘Green’ issues. Donors have also controlled the agenda of negotiations. But more productive and disciplinary forms of power are shown to be at work in conditionality, as in other forms of aid. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of the IMF and World Bank on public expenditure accountability in Jamaica

This article analyses the positive and negative effects of IMF stabilization programmes and World Bank structural adjustment programmes on the accountability of public expenditure management in Jamaica in the period 1980–1992. Particular attention is given to the negative accountability effects of IMF budget deficit reduction targets imposed on a Government uncommitted to meeting such targets. Many of the arguments presented in this article relate to expenditure accountability problems more generally and it cannot be proved that IMF conditionality was the sole cause of these problems. It is argued, however, that IMF conditionality contributed. This argument is based on a large number of semi-structured interviews conducted in 1993 with Jamaican bureaucrats, politicians, donors, academics and private sector representatives, many of whom were involved in Jamaica's budget formulation process, and on analysis of the existing literature and data. The conclusion reached is that donor-guided reform programmes have complex and often conflicting impacts on the accountability of the Government's budgetary practices. A major question that arises is the relative importance that donors such as the IMF place on budget conditionality as against accountability. The conclusion based on the Jamaican experience is that the IMF placed greater emphasis on the former. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How Foreign Aid Can Foster Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes

Donors in recent years have made some foreign aid conditional on progress toward democracy. This study investigates whether and how such conditionality works in practice. The promise of higher aid if the country democratizes only provides an incentive for democratization for political leaders who expect to remain in office after democratization occurs. I show that dictators with large distributional coalitions, who have a good chance of winning fair elections, tend to respond to aid by democratizing. In contrast, aid helps dictators with the smallest distributional coalitions hang on to power. I present a model that shows a dictator's decision calculus, given different a priori support coalitions and varying degrees of aid conditionality, and test the model implications with data from 190 authoritarian regimes in 101 countries from 1960 to 2002.     

Policy Entrepreneurship,Policy Opportunism,and EU Conditionality: The AKP and TÜSİAD Experience in Turkey

This article examines the relationship between European Union (EU) conditionality for membership and policy entrepreneurship in a candidate country. In Turkey, EU conditionality opened a window of opportunity for policy reform by lowering the political costs of controversial reforms. The study demonstrates that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TÜS?AD) responded to a window of opportunity by advocating a series of reforms that represented a bold challenge to the traditionally reform‐averse and Euro‐skeptic political culture in Turkey. The study finds a difference in the duration of both actors' commitment to reforms. To explain this difference, we distinguish between policy entrepreneurs, who are actors with a long time horizon, and policy opportunists, who are actors with a short time horizon. The policy implication of this finding is that the European Commission's expectations of the AKP government to deliver the necessary reforms may be too optimistic.     

Euro Area entry in east-central Europe: Paradoxical Europeanisation and clustered convergence

Economic and Monetary Union offers a useful case study for critically examining Europeanisation and conditionality as explanatory variables for the euro entry strategies of east-central European states. This article highlights the paradoxes of extreme and limited Europeanisation and of extreme ‘formal’ and ‘informal’ conditionality with multiple sources of uncertainty. These paradoxes have provided the context within which east-central European governments have evolved political strategies for the temporal management of euro entry. These strategies reflect in turn different ‘clusters’ of convergence in the Baltic States, the Visegrad states, and Slovenia. Euro Area accession in east-central Europe offers insights not just into how Europeanisation works in a central political issue area but also into the temporal management of EU policy and ‘clustered’ convergence.     

A Public Choice Perspective of IMF and World Bank Lending and Conditionality

The paper explains IMF and World Banklending and conditionality stressingchanges in relative bargaining power ofdifferent stakeholders over time. Itapplies public choice theory to explain theinterests of the institutions' memberstates, its borrowers and staffs as well asprivate actors attaching their money to theIFIs' programs. Using panel data for 43countries between 1987–99 it is shown thatthe number of Fund conditions seems to beinfluenced by contemporaneous World Bankactivity and ``bad'' policies.     

反贫困与少数民族聚居区新型农村合作医疗制度的优化——以内蒙古、云南为例

少数民族聚居区贫困人口问题,不仅是一个经济社会问题,也是十分重要的政治问题。因病致贫、因病返贫是少数民族聚居区农牧民贫困的主要原因之一。民族聚居区农牧民贫困具有区域贫困与农牧民个体贫困并存,贫困发生率高等一些共性的特征。贫困对少数民族聚居区新农合制度可持续发展具有制约性,只有对少数民族地区聚居区新农合制度进行优化设计,才能促进该制度的可持续发展。     

The Changing Politics of Foreign Aid — Where to Next?

The 1990s have seen the most systematic attempt yet to influence directly the government and politics of sovereign aid receiving states. Aid's conditionalities now include political as well as economic dimensions. The proclaimed objectives include democracy, human rights and good governance. But the old politics linking aid to donors' security and commercial interests has not disappeared. The future directions are uncertain. Some observers urge additional conditionalities emphasising social objectives of poverty alleviation. Others argue conditionality is bound to be ineffective. Aid's capacity to combat poverty, and thereby the contribution it can make indirectly to democratic prospects, is contested anyway. It should remain a durable object of social and political research.     

Constructing Barriers in the Translation and Deployment of Science: Basslink — A Case Study

The effect of the translation and deployment of science by development proponents in the impact assessment process is examined. Basslink, the 300 km power cable to transport electricity across Bass Strait, is the case study. Drawing on the sociology of science, this paper analyses one critic's contestation of the Basslink proponent's science. It highlights the extent to which impact assessment statements fortify proponents' knowledge-claims, obscuring from view the conditionality of science, and making these claims resistant to independent critique, analysis and verification. These circumstances have the potential to undermine the effectiveness, equity and transparency of regulatory instruments and enforcement mechanisms that derive from the impact assessment process as well as the regime's legitimacy.     

Regionalisierung und Dezentralisierung in Mittel- und Südosteuropa 1997–2007

The review essay takes stock of the last decade of decentralisation and regionalisation research in Central and South Eastern Europe. Classifying the existing scholarship with regard to its focus of analysis, its explanatory programme, and methodological predilections, we suggest to distinguish three different agendas: system transformation, EU conditionality and subnational governance. We argue that scholarly interest in regionalisation and decentralisation issues from the perspective of state transformation or Europeanisation is vanishing. Instead, we witness the emergence of a subnational governance approach which is rooted in comparative politics and policy analysis. The debate about decentralisation and regionalisation in CEEC is thus in a process of “normalising” and converging with the Western European subnational political discourse.     

When Does the EU Make a Difference? Conditionality and the Accession Process in Central and Eastern Europe

A number of recent studies examining the accession of states from Central and Eastern Europe into the European Union have provided a much more sophisticated understanding of when, why and how the EU shaped, directed and occasionally determined change in the region since 1989. Although acknowledging the EU was at times a motor of change, its power was limited to particular points in the accession process and varied significantly across policy areas. Even in cases such as Slovakia, often used to demonstrate the power of EU conditionality, the influence of the EU on domestic actors and policy change has been exaggerated. The EU's 'transformative power' is at its greatest when deciding to open accession negotiations, a finding which has implications for the EU's ability to enact change in Croatia and Turkey.     

Eastern and Western Perceptions on EU Aid in Light of the Arab Spring

The European Union welcomed the demonstrators’ demands wholeheartedly during the Arab Spring, trying to maximize the assistance that it could offer to support genuine democratic transition, at least at a rhetorical level. This article reflects on the changes in the neighborhood policy by focusing on public perceptions measured in Europe and in countries in close proximity to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. European views on solidarity are compared to local public opinion on EU involvement in the region. Recipient views in Jordan, Egypt, Palestine, and Israel are explored by analyzing relevant results of the Arab Barometer and Neighborhood Barometer surveys. Findings indicate that the Middle Eastern public opinion tends to appreciate the EU’s gestures with the exception of Egypt, but conditionality is more in line with European public opinion.     

Elections and Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes

When do elections in authoritarian regimes lead to democracy? Building from the distinction between competitive and hegemonic authoritarian regimes, I argue that presence of relatively weaker incumbents renders competitive authoritarian elections more prone to democratization, but only when domestic and international actors choose to actively pressure the regime. The effects of two forms of pressure—opposition electoral coalitions and international conditionality—are theorized. Propositions are tested using a comprehensive dataset of elections in authoritarian regimes from 1990 to 2007. Results support two core claims: that the effect of electoral pressure is conditional on the type of authoritarianism and that this greater vulnerability to pressure is the reason why competitive authoritarian elections are more likely to lead to democracy. In contrast, several alternative explanations—that differences across regime type are explained by alternation in power, better electoral conduct, or ongoing processes of liberalization—are not supported by the evidence.     

The failure to learn from others: Vertical fiscal imbalance,centralisation, and Australia's metropolitan knowledge deficit

This paper questions the routes to knowledge of metropolitan governance elsewhere in the world and then explains how and why these are rendered more difficult in Australia. The paper begins with the policy literature on the exchange of knowledge relevant to metropolitan governance. The paper next explains the constitutional and fiscal backdrop to metropolitan governance in Australia; the ‘unique’ role of state governments in the funding, planning, and management of cities, and the powers adopted by the federal government that are made possible by vertical fiscal imbalance and funding conditionality. The paper then explores horizontal knowledge exchange of metropolitan governance in the form of transnational municipal networks, corporations, international organisations, and consultants. The final section of the paper considers the thesis that were Australia's cities to function independently, as metropolitan governments, the potential for knowledge exchange would be optimised. Knowledge of smart city technologies is used for case study purposes.     

Cross-pressures and the European lavender vote: Testing the conditionality of the sexuality gap

Emerging evidence points towards the existence of a “sexuality gap” in the political preferences and behaviour of lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) voters and that of heterosexuals in Western Europe. Very little is known, however, about how this gap is moderated by socio-economic status. This paper tests the conditionality of the sexuality gap by analysing how the effect of LGB status is conditioned by income and education. Empirically, we rely on data from the European Social Survey (2002–2017) to analyse the marginal effect of sexuality in determining ideological placement, vote choice and support for economic redistribution across different income and education levels. The results demonstrate that the divergence between LGBs' and heterosexuals’ preferences only emerges amongst those with higher income and education. The findings also suggest that the sexuality gap may be the result of the asymmetric effect of these socio-economic variables for LGBs and heterosexuals.     

EU issue voting and the 2014 European Parliament elections: a dynamic perspective

EU issue voting in European Parliament elections has been shown to be highly conditional upon levels of EU politicization. The present study analyzes this conditionality over time, hypothesizing that the effect of EU attitudes on EP vote preferences is catalyzed as EP elections draw closer. In contrast to extant cross-sectional post-election studies, we use a four-wave panel study covering the six months leading up to the Dutch EP elections of 2014, differentiating between party groups (pro, anti, mixed) and five EU attitude dimensions. We find that EU issue voting occurs for both anti- and pro-EU parties, but only increases for the latter. For mixed parties we find no effect of EU attitudes, yet their support base shifts in the anti-EU direction as the elections draw closer. The overarching image, however, is one of surprising stability: EU attitudes form a consistent part of EP voting motivations even outside EP election times.