巴基斯坦：远景与现实，过去与未来

巴基斯坦作为一个独立的国家,它不仅仅代表着一个国家和政府,而且还是一种对当代政治中占统治地位的自由化与世俗化模式发起的挑战,它本身就构成了一种变革政治地图的努力。文章从巴基斯坦的现实分析了这个国家的过去与未来。     

中俄边境贸易的过去、现在与未来

中国与俄罗斯的边境贸易源于1689年的《中俄尼布楚条约》,至今已有300多年的历史。虽然两国的边境贸易经历了沙皇俄国、苏联、俄罗斯联邦等不同的历史时期,但是友好往来、互通有无的良好传统一直没有中断。在当前中俄经贸合作全面展开的新态势下,中俄边境贸易仍具有巨大的发展潜力,随着中俄两国国家关系的持续良好发展,中俄边境贸易又迎来了新的历史机遇。     

21世纪中俄关系的回顾与展望——"中俄关系:历史、现状与未来"国际会议综述

在中俄战略协作伙伴关系建立10周年之际,为配合中俄关系史上的创举——“俄罗斯国家年”的活动,加强中俄两国学者的交流与合作,中国社会科学院与俄罗斯科学院于2006年6月19~20日在中国北京共同举办了“中俄社会科学论坛”。论坛由“中俄关系:历史、现状与未来”国际会议和“全球化与中俄经济”国际会议两部分组成。该活动为“俄罗斯年”的国家级项目之一。“中俄关系:历史、现状与未来”国际会议由中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所和世界历史研究所共同承办。来自中共中央对外联络部、中国现代国际关系研究院、中国国际问题研究所、国务…     

中俄科技合作及技术转移前景展望

俄罗斯的评估机构对影响世界经济发展的重大发明技术进行分析后认为，俄占有近30％的份额，处于世界科技领先地位。该机构还预测，至2010年在世界高新技术产品市场上俄所占的份额将接近50％。中俄两国政治、经贸方面取得了丰硕的成果，但中俄科技合作及技术引进工作却进展缓慢。探索中俄科技合作的新模式、新途径，剖析技术转移领域产生的诸多问题，对于促进俄高新技术向中国技术市场转移尤为重要。     

拉丁美洲经济形势

20 0 0年拉丁美洲经济基本步出衰退的阴影 ,各种宏观经济指数明显提高 ,ＧＤＰ平均增长率达到 4 % ,其中墨西哥、中美洲和加勒比地区达 4 .5% ,南美洲为 3.3%。据国际经济与金融组织预计 ,2 0 0 1年拉美经济有望继续稳步增长。一随着全球经济状况的整体改善 ,2 0 0 0年拉美地区经济形势也大为改善 ,呈现出如下特点 :(一 )经济止跌回升。因受巴西金融动荡的影响 ,拉美经济 1 999年普遍出现衰退 ,经济增长率仅为 0 .3%。 2 0 0 0年拉美经济形势在全球经济状况改善的带动下出现好转 ,大多数国家经济恢复增长势头 ,预计整个拉美地区经济增长率平…     

Regionalism in Asia: Past and Future

In order to predict the future of East Asia in the wake of the 1997-98 financial crisis, Kenneth B. Pyle looks to the region's past for lessons. He assesses East Asia's 'old new orders' and deduces six major lessons from their history that can be applied to the current post-Cold-War interregnum. The region is gaining an unprecedented power to shape its own system and to influence the international order, but its current institutions are built on extremely fragile foundations. The risk is that we are in an age of rising nationalism within the region and the emergence of strategic rivalries, arms races, and competition for limited resources. Finally, in looking at Japan, Pyle predicts that the currently awkward US-Japan alliance will determine the region's stability, despite the fact that Japan will most likely continue to shy away from a proactive role in the area. These lessons lead to the argument that events will drive the region's international relations in the future and that the region must seize this opportunity to create new stabilising institutions.     

越南与俄罗斯经贸合作发展的历程、现状与趋势

1991年底,苏联解体,越南与俄罗斯的关系进入新的历史时期。20年来,两国经贸合作取得了令人瞩目的成效,双边贸易迅猛增长,合作领域不断拓宽,合作层次不断提升。2001年,越南与俄罗斯宣布建立战略合作伙伴关系,随着两国成功加入世界贸易组织,在WTO框架体系下,未来双边经贸合作具有广阔的发展前景。     

中美关系的战略基础:过去、现在与未来

以共同威胁或以共同利益为战略基础是发展中美关系的两条主要道路.冷战期间,以反对苏联威胁为主的中美关系战略基础随着冷战的结束而消失.反恐期间,以对付恐怖主义为主的中美关系战略基础具有相对的短暂性和脆弱性.美国反恐战争结束后,中美两国应考虑从共同利益中确定发展未来中美关系的建设性战略基础.经济互赖当是中美关系新的战略基础的首选.     

越南与美国经贸合作发展的历程、现状与前景

自1986年革新开放以来,越南大力发展外向型经济战略,积极融入世界经济体系。1995年越南与美国正式建立外交关系,双方由过去的军事对抗转向全面经贸合作,两国关系翻开了新的历史篇章。近年来,越美双边经贸合作取得了令人瞩目的成效,双边贸易实现了快速增长,合作领域逐渐拓宽,合作层次不断提升。目前,越美双边关系已成为越南对外关系的核心。在WTO框架下,越南与美国的经贸合作关系将会得到进一步发展。     

越南与欧盟经贸合作的历程、现状与前景

1990年11月28日,越南与欧盟正式建交,20年来双边经贸关系发展迅速。1995年双方签署《越南一欧盟合作框架协议》,2012年双方签署《越南-欧盟全面友好合作协议》,为双边经贸发展搭建全新合作框架。越南-欧盟自由贸易区建成将进一步提升双方贸易投资合作水平。21世纪,越南与欧盟的经贸关系具有广阔的发展前景。     

Carry on the Past Achievements and Create a More Splendid Future

Ⅰ The year 2011 marks the 30th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Association for International Understanding(CAFIU). Three decades ago, China's reform and opening up was just started, and full scale reconstruction was under way while many things waited to be done.     

世界与中国、中国与世界:过去30年,未来30年

2008北京奥运的完美落幕进一步突出了中国改革开放以来的发展成就,标志着中国的国力、国势、国运进入新的上升轨道,中国与世界的关系再度成为国际热点话题。中国的发展、崛起将引起国际格局、国际体系发生什么样的变化?在变化中的世界,尤其是在中国发展本身就构成国际变局重要组成部分、国际上"中国威胁论"及"中国责任论"等此起彼伏的情况下,中国又面临着什么样的新任务、需要确立怎样的国家大战略、做出何种新的战略选择?要不要居安思危,继续坚持韬光养晦?对这些问题,不仅精英层在严肃思考,普通民众也极为关切。鉴此,《现代国际关系》杂志社2008年8月31日以"‘奥运后时代’中国与世界的关系"为题举办研讨会,邀请京津两地20多位相关领域专家、学者就上述问题展开深入讨论。现将会议主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

Putting the medium back into mediation

Abstract

The dominant theoretical paradigm in contemporary South African media studies is one which encourages scholars to focus on questions of representation: on the content of media texts, on how accurately they portray the world, and on how individuals or groups react to those portrayals. While acknowledging the value of this orthodox approach, we argue that attention to the non-representational or material dimensions of mediated experience raises important new issues for the discipline, doing greater justice to the intimate material role the media play in the world and also serving as a first step towards reconceptualising human subjectivity in a way that goes beyond the traditional subject–object epistemology of modern humanism. We use an example from film melodrama to illustrate how the affective and phenomenological dimensions of the film-viewing experience can promote a positive pre-discursive engagement with (human) being – with what Deleuze characterises as ‘a life’. In this case we link affective engagement to the possibility of a regenerative politics that may begin to challenge and supplement the increasingly suspect modern political tropes of agency and identity.     

The Past,Present, and Future of Mediation as Seen through the Eyes of Some of Its Founders

This article is drawn from interviews with thirty‐one of mediation's “founders,” those pioneers who began mediating in the 1970s and 1980s, when the field was young. They describe what first attracted them to mediation and why they have remained active in the field. Some told us that they have found it to be both intellectually challenging and interpersonally satisfying to assist disputing parties in their search for a mutually acceptable resolution they could not find on their own. Others see mediation's collaborative approach to decision making as a means of bringing about social and political change that might be otherwise unattainable. The mediators also described the changes they have observed since they entered the field: mediation's dramatic growth, institutionalization in the judicial system, and market domination by lawyers and retired judges. Among the concerns they expressed were the prevalence of a mediation model that focuses primarily on the legal strengths and weaknesses of each party's position, and the dollar amount that should resolve the dispute, with little interest in creative outcomes. Other concerns are a lack of quality control of mediators and trainers, and unproductive debate about whether the “correct” approach to mediation is evaluative, facilitative, or transformative. The mediators who work on public policy matters, including environmental disputes, were the most positive about the opportunity for creativity in their work, considerably more so than those mediators whose practice is primarily business/commercial. The mediators' views of the future of mediation are remarkably similar — their general sense is that the type of mediation that takes place in the shadow of the courts is likely to increase and to become even more routinized than it is at present. Several respondents told us that they also expect to see substantial growth in the use of mediation to resolve public policy issues. Many of these mediators predicted that this type of mediation is likely to be carried out by organizational insiders, rather than outside interveners. As one mediator said, “Maybe there's a new set of mediation roles for people within traditional institutions, not just for free‐standing neutrals.”     

The Internal Israeli Conflict: The Past, Present, and Future of the Jewish West Bank and Gaza Settlements

On October 14 and 15, 2004, just days before the Israeli government submitted to the Knesset a draft legislation to authorize the evacuation of Jewish settlers from Gaza Strip and some settlements on the West Bank, a two‐day conference titled “Past, Present, and Future of the Jewish West Bank and Gaza Settlements: The Internal Israeli Conflict” was held at Harvard Law School. The conference was sponsored by the Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School, the Saltman Center for Conflict Resolution of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and the United States Institute of Peace. This interdisciplinary conference's six panels, whose proceedings are summarized in the series of articles that follow, explored the religious, ideological, psychological, political, legal, and international dimensions of the conflict. Presenters included former and current Israeli and American government officials, experts on resettlement policies and compensation mechanisms, and scholars from a variety of disciplines. While presentation topics covered a range of issues relating to the settlements, three broad themes arose from the conference. First, participants agreed that it is important, if not fundamental, to understand the perspectives of the national religious settlers who are the driving force behind the settlement movement. Exploring the settlers’ diverse interests, fears, and identities is necessary in order to see why relocation is so threatening to them. The Israeli government can lessen opposition to withdrawal by showing the settlers empathy and reassurance, but only if government officials first achieve a true understanding of the settlers’ concerns. Participants also argued that a reframing of the relocation in ideological terms could be another critical component of a solution to this problem. It may be necessary for the leaders of the settlement movement to develop a new narrative or modify the existing one in order to legitimize their relocation. Part of this narrative will involve the concept of “a greater good”— the government must reassure the settlers that their sacrifice is for a higher cause. Several participants noted that Israel needs to show the settlers “tough love.” When the relocations begin, many expect that there will be violence and that disturbing images will be broadcast throughout Israel and around the world. Internal disruption could put the government led by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Likud party coalition in jeopardy. The government must not waver in the face of this crisis, conference participants argued. In fact, the threat of violent and disruptive resistance by settlers and their allies can be part of the solution, not just the problem. The government and relocation supporters can use this extremism to justify decisive measures and to redefine the problem for the broader population to convince them that the stability of the country is at stake. Another major conclusion of conference participants was that, while the Israeli settlement issue has unique features, there is much to be learned from comparative analysis. Other countries have dealt with settlement situations, and their experiences offer invaluable lessons. In particular, participants contrasted Israel's settlements in Gaza and the West Bank with French settlements in Algeria and English settlements in Ireland. Some pointed to the French withdrawal from Algeria, which was politically painful but ultimately successful, as an example of “tough love” that Israel should follow. Finally, the involvement of third parties to help solve this conflict is indispensable. Participants noted that while much of Israel feels alienated from the European Union and the United Nations, the Israeli government is highly sensitive to the concerns of the United States, as evidenced by Sharon's decision to show the Gaza withdrawal plan to the U.S. government before he had even raised it with his cabinet and the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. International participation could help legitimize withdrawal and reduce Israeli responsibility for Gaza's future. Third parties can apply political pressure to encourage an accountable and responsible Palestinian leadership. They may also be called upon to provide some sort of financial aid. The participants acknowledged the complexity of the settlement problem and recognized that easy solutions do not exist. Yet, if the Israeli government works toward understanding the settlers’ perspectives, learns from comparative analysis, and involves third parties appropriately, the likelihood of a successful outcome increases greatly.     

俄罗斯"入世"与未来经济发展

当今世界上任何一个国家在要不要顺应经济全球化趋势,要不要融入世界经济空间这个问题上已经没有选择的余地。俄罗斯的市场已经是世界大市场的一部分。对于俄罗斯来说,形成开放式的市场经济和加入世界贸易组织是战略上的惟一选择。本文简要论述了俄罗斯加入世贸组织的进程,分析了“入世”给俄罗斯带来的机遇和挑战。“入世”一方面可以为俄罗斯商品出口到国外市场扫清道路,使国内的竞争逐步健康化;另一方面也将促使俄罗斯加紧改革,并积极采取措施,以迎接加入世贸组织后给各行各业带来的巨大挑战。