Foreign Policy Analysis and the Study of the Diplomatic History of the Raoul Wallenberg Case

In 1982, claims were made that the Swedish diplomat, Raoul Wallenberg, when preparing in mid-January 1945 for his trip to Soviet military headquarter in Debrecen, north of Budapest, concealed large amounts of valuables—gold and jewellery—in his car. Moreover, the argument exists that Russian discovery of these valuables had a significant impact on both Swedish and Soviet handling of his case. Recently re-surfacing in a biography of Wallenberg, this claim is incorrect. The testimonies referred to in its support are fraught with serious weaknesses and, the causal chain allegedly set off about finding the valuables is not verifiable. This analysis argues that the study of the diplomatic history of the Wallenberg case could benefit significantly by taking some basic insights from the field of foreign policy analysis into account.     

Leadership Style, Regime Type, and Foreign Policy Crisis Behavior: A Contingent Monadic Peace?

While a substantial body of theory suggests that democracies should behave peacefully toward all states (monadically), most empirical evidence indicates they are only pacific in their relations with fellow democracies (dyadically). A new theoretical synthesis suggests that the missing link between democratic constraints and pacific monadic behavior is leaders' perceptions of, and responses to, these constraints. Research on political leadership indicates that, contrary to conventional wisdom, leaders respond in systematically different ways to domestic constraints: "constraint respecters" internalize constraints in their environments, while "constraint challengers" view such constraints as obstacles to be surmounted. An analysis of 154 foreign policy crises provides strong support for this contingent monadic thesis: democracies led by constraint respecters stand out as extraordinarily pacific in their crisis responses, while democracies led by constraint challengers and autocracies led by both types of leaders are demonstrably more aggressive.     

Why Not Invade North Korea? Threats, Language Games, and U.S. Foreign Policy

International relations theory has difficulty explaining how similar policies produce different outcomes. Iraq and North Korea have been identified as members of the "axis of evil" with weapons of mass destruction programs that threaten the United States. Yet in late 2002, the United States prepared to attack Iraq whereas it chose to negotiate with North Korea, even after North Korea admitted to a secret nuclear program in direct violation of its 1994 agreement with the United States. Moreover, a direct comparison with Iraq shows North Korea to possess the greater material capability to threaten the United States. I argue that a language-based constructivist approach can explain these differences in U.S. foreign policy where other theoretical approaches cannot. By examining the U.S. entanglement in intersected language games—the implementation of the 1994 Agreed Framework with North Korea and the enforcement of United Nations Resolutions in Iraq—it becomes possible to show how the United States could construct North Korea's nuclear program as a manageable threat that could be dealt with diplomatically.     

日本政治经济外交形势及政策取向

一2 0 0 0年仍是日本多事的一年。政局乱 ,改革难 ;经济“有景无气” ,缺乏活力 ;外交虚多实少 ,重点突而不破。“朝大野小”的格局被打破 ,自民党与民主党两大阵营形成对峙 ,多党参政的联政框架继续维持。 6.2 5大选之后 ,日本朝野在众议院势力分布发生明显变化。自民党 2 34席、民主党 1 2 9席、公明党 31席、自由党 2 2席、日共 2 0席、社民党 1 9席、保守党 7席、无党派 2 1席。这便形成了自民、公明、保守三联合执政党与民主、自由、日共、社民四在野党的直接对抗的局面。执政三党的议席数较选前大幅度减少 ,由 335席骤减至 2 72席 ,自…     

建构主义:解读外交政策决策的一种方法--以6O年代美国对华政策为例

建构主义是西方国际关系理论中的新生流派.目前,我国学者对于这一流派的认识基本上停留于介绍和引进阶段,而对其实证价值鲜有关注.本文试图运用这一理论的核心观点来解读外交政策决策的形成.