Consociationalism and its critics: Evidence from the historic Northern Ireland Assembly election 2007

Critics of consociational power-sharing institutional arrangements in deeply divided societies argue that such arrangements solidify the underlying conflict cleavage and render it all-important for party competition and voter behaviour. I find evidence to the contrary in the case of voter behaviour at the historic 2007 Assembly election in Northern Ireland. At least in the unionist bloc, I find the effective disappearance of the ethno-national conflict cleavage as a determinant of voter choice. This suggests that consociational arrangements have led to both inclusion and moderation, rather than polarisation and ‘ethnic outbidding’.     

Post-materialist values and political preference: Some unlikely findings from Northern Ireland

Abstract. Post–materialist values (PMVs) in Northern Ireland are less widespread than in most European countries. This is in accordance with Inglehart's argument that PMVs are less likely to arise among groups that have spent their formative years in physical and economic insecurity. However there has also been an increase in PMVs since the early 1970s which has continued steadily into the 1980s when the cohort which spent its formative years in the 'Troubles' entered the voting population. To explore this phenomenon, this article examines the Eurobarometer data from 1982 to 1991. Voters for four political parties (two Nationalist and two Unionist) are compared. It was found that voters for the Nationalist parties were significantly more likely to be post materialists. It was also found that Sinn Féin, a militant Nationalist party, attracted the highest percentage of post–materialists. Two explanations are offered: (1) the post–materialist index is unsuitable for use in Northern Ireland, and (2) the value change was driven by forces other than the experience of physical and economic security.     

Split-ticket Voting in Times of Sub-national Government Reorganisation: Evidence from Denmark

Local government amalgamations may have unintended consequences on electoral behaviour. Using the most recent local elections in Denmark as its case, this article demonstrates that inter-level split-ticket voting between three levels (national, regional and local) decreased slightly from 2001 to 2005 – that is, simultaneously with the implementation of a major reform, where many municipalities and all the counties were amalgamated. These amalgamations affect the level of split voting through a process where the local party system operates as an intervening variable: the larger municipalities have a more nationalised local party system, which leads to fewer voters being vote splitters by necessity. The analyses combine general electoral statistics with large voter surveys and benefit from the quasi-experimental setting offered by the fact that not all municipalities were amalgamated.     

Interethnic tolerance,education, and political orientation: Evidence from Denmark

Focusing on the relationship between education and tolerance toward ethnic out-groups in the Danish public, this analysis presents evidence in support of the argument that an important mechanism behind the positive impact of education on tolerance is cognitive constraint: Academic education promotes the ability to connect ideas, and minds equipped with this ability will tend to generalize the norms of the prevailing democratic culture to include ethnic relations. This tendency is particularly apparent when political orientations of the liberal left are added to common democratic norms. The constrained mind that holds left-leaning political beliefs is compelled to express ethnic tolerance. On the other hand, constrained minds permit themselves to be intolerant only when subscribing to right-wing political ideas explicitly at variance with liberal democratic ideals. Interestingly, cognitive constraint is high also in the minority among people lacking in academic education that scores high on tolerance. Compared to their less tolerant peers, the members of this minority are much more likely to be involved in political organizations, for the most part at the ideological left. This indicates that in Denmark such organizations serve a function that in terms of fostering ability to connect ideas is equivalent to the function of academic institutions.     

The single transferable vote and ethnic conflict: The evidence from Northern Ireland

There has been a long-running debate amongst constitutional engineers between those who favour the proportional representation of parties (usually via PR-Closed List systems) and post-election power-sharing (Lijphart) and those who favour attempting to induce pre-election inter-ethnic ‘vote-pooling’ (Horowitz) as a more effective and stable method of governing divided societies. Less attention has been paid to the fact that other options are available. A leading candidate amongst these is the Single Transferable Vote (STV), a non-categorical ordinal ballot system that may be capable of combining the essential ‘fairness’ of proportionality with the centripetal benefits of some inter-ethnic vote-pooling. Northern Ireland is the only divided society with extensive experience of STV elections. This paper examines the empirical evidence before and after the 1998 Belfast Agreement by examining the operation of the electoral system at the Northern Ireland Assembly elections of 1982, 1998, 2003, 2007 and 2011. The main findings are that prior to the 1998 Agreement inter-ethnic vote-pooling in Northern Ireland was very close to zero. Afterwards (1998–2007) terminal transfers from the moderate unionist UUP to the moderate nationalist SDLP averaged 32 per cent (and 13 per cent in the opposite direction). Although most transfers clearly remain within ethnic blocs, these inter-ethnic terminal transfers are a change with the past and suggest that STV may be an appropriate electoral system choice for some divided societies.     

Sowing Dragon's Teeth: Public Support for Political Violence and Paramilitarism in Northern Ireland

While much attention has been devoted to political efforts to solve the Northern Ireland problem, less attention has been given to the role of political violence in sustaining the conflict. We argue that one of the reasons for the intractability of the conflict is widespread exposure to political violence among the civil population. By 1998, thirty years after the conflict started, one in seven of the population reported being a victim of violence; one in five had a family member killed or injured; and one in four had been caught up in an explosion. Such widespread exposure to violence exists alongside latent support for paramilitarism among a significant minority of both communities. Using 1998 survey data, we show that exposure to violence serves to enhance public support for paramilitary groups, as well as to reduce support for the decommissioning of para-military weapons. Overall, the results suggest that only a lengthy period without political violence will undermine support for paramilitarism and result in the decommissioning of weapons.     

Winning Peace Frames: Intra-Ethnic Outbidding in Northern Ireland and Cyprus

Ethnic outbidding in divided societies can have dire political consequences, ranging from the derailment of peace processes to inter-ethnic warfare. This article investigates the conditions contributing to successful outbidding within the framework of protracted peace negotiations by using the contrasting cases of Northern Ireland and Cyprus. Evidence demonstrates that successful outbidders are able to exploit the fears of their communities with respect to inter-ethnic compromise while identifying appropriate strategies and opportunities for redressing these grievances. The article demonstrates that the degree of outbidding success over the long term derives from combining diagnostic and prognostic frames linked to credible political and constitutional strategies.     

Iris Robinson's Excitable Speech: Sexuality and Conflict Transformation in Northern Ireland

In the summer of 2008, the Westminster MP and Member of the Northern Ireland Assembly, Iris Robinson, made homophobic statements during interviews with the media. Robinson's anti-gay remarks highlight the continuing challenges for sexual politics in Northern Ireland. However, conflict transformation literature in the region has elided issues of sexuality. This article, drawing on elements of Judith Butler's analysis of injurious speech, assesses the issues that Robinson's homophobic speech highlights in relation to sexual equality in Northern Ireland. It concludes by assessing the role of conflict transformation literature in charting sexual politics in the region.     

Spacing commemorative-related violence in Northern Ireland: assessing the implications for a society in transition

This paper explores the geography of commemorative-related violence in Northern Ireland and considers its ramifications for a society in transition. Using original primary research, this article contributes to discussions on violence, space and memory through a spatial analysis of new quantitative archival data and existing archival material explored through a multi-disciplinary lens. It examines the complex relationship between the practices and processes of commemoration, the violence that it sometimes occasions and the places in which such violence exists. In unpacking this specific form of violence we consider the continued importance of both place and past in a post-conflict society.     

Gendering the Holy Cross School Dispute: Women and Nationalism in Northern Ireland

This article explores the Holy Cross school dispute in Northern Ireland from a feminist perspective. This ethnic quarrel produced a situation whereby women and young schoolgirls became the focal point of a sectarian protest from September 2001 to early 2002. Throughout the conflict, issues of gender were sidelined from the analysis of the dispute. The article attempts to remedy this omission by moving the category of gender to the forefront of the analysis. It examines the relationship between nationalist discourses of gender identity and representations of the nationalist women's agency during the dispute. While exposing these dimensions of the conflict, the article also considers the impact of women's ethno-nationalist agency on their role and positioning within nationalist cultures. It concludes that the Holy Cross conflict exposes the potentially disruptive aspects of women's ethno-nationalist agency and highlights the political significance of that agency for nationalist cultures pursuing ideals of gender equality.     

The Moral Minority: Evangelical Protestants in Northern Ireland and Their Political Behaviour

It has long been asserted that strong evangelical religious beliefs underpin strong unionist and loyalist political attitudes in Northern Ireland. Although recent literature has argued for a wide diversity of political attitudes amongst evangelicals, this has not been quantified. Based on analysis of the 1991 Northern Irish Social Attitudes Survey and the 1998 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, this article argues that evangelicals are attitudinally different to other Protestants in Northern Ireland. However, their distinctiveness arises from their conservative moral attitudes and not, as widely claimed, from stronger unionist political values. Indeed, in terms of party identification, in 1991 evangelicals were less likely than other Protestants to support the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). And although there has been a small shift towards the DUP over the course of the 1990s, it is not due to any strengthening of the unionism of evangelicals, but rather the increasing importance of moral conservatism in predicting voters' party choice in Northern Ireland.     

Estimating the Impact of Education on Political Participation: Evidence from Monozygotic Twins in the United States,Denmark and Sweden

In this study we provide new evidence on the much-discussed effect of education on political participation by utilizing the quasi-experiment of twinning. By looking at the relationship between education and participation within monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs we are able to circumvent traditional sources of confounding of the relationship rooted in genes and early life family environment because MZ twins share both. The results of within-twin pair analyses based on surveys from the United States, Denmark and Sweden show that while the relationship between education and political participation is highly confounded by genes and/or familial environment in all three countries, a positive impact remains of years of education in the US and of high school completion in Denmark. No effect is found in Sweden. Robustness checks suggest that the observed effect is not confounded by within-twin pair differences in prenatal environment nor differential treatment during childhood, and, if anything, that it most likely constitutes a lower bound estimate.     

Back to Stormont: The New Decade,New Approach Agreement and What it Means for Northern Ireland

The decision of the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin to once again share power in Northern Ireland has ended a three-year hiatus in the region’s devolved government. The deal which resurrects the devolved institutions—New Decade, New Approach—is not short of ambition. It introduces significant institutional reforms which place the institutions on a more sustainable footing and limit the potential for abuse of the Assembly’s infamous Petition of Concern. Nettles have been grasped on issues to do with language, culture, and identity that have long vexed political parties in Northern Ireland. Tucked away in the deal’s appendices are commitments to implement outstanding pledges made in previous agreements, plus ambitious plans for the new Northern Ireland Executive. However, as parties in the region were quick to discover, aspects of this deal are easier said than done. This article considers what New Decade, New Approach promises and, if fully implemented, what its implications are for politics and governance in Northern Ireland.     

Economic Aid: The End of Phase II and the Impact on Sustainable Peacebuilding in Northern Ireland

Abstract

Economic aid has been a critical component of the peace process in Northern Ireland allowing for community-based interventions, employment, social inclusion and regional stability. With the second round of funding coming to a close this essay explores the thoughts and perceptions of civil servants, fund administrators and community group leaders in Derry, Belfast and the Border Area to consider peoples reflections on the outcome of funding, concerns for the future once funding ends, what vital work is still needed and what strategies exist to continue the work of peace after the cessation of Phase II.     

Governance and Democracy in Northern Ireland: The Role of the Voluntary and Community Sector after the Agreement

Since 1998, Northern Ireland has been the subject of a unique experiment in governance and democracy. The experiment includes the establishment of a participatory Civic Forum in which the voluntary and community sector has an important stake. Beginning with a discussion of the merits of a participatory aspect to democracy in the contemporary age, this paper identifies factors that might help establish the Civic Forum as a successful participatory institution in Northern Ireland. Key factors include the attitude towards the Forum of political representatives and their willingness to foster a participatory dimension to the new democracy. Other important factors are inclusiveness and the balance of sectoral representation in the Forum.     

Trust in Scandinavia: Findings from Moving Borders between Denmark and Germany

Scandinavian societies express the world's highest levels of trust in surveys and display high levels of social capital more generally. Scholars and policy makers disagree on whether this reflects high economic equality brought about by inclusive, universalist welfare states after the Second World War or historical legacies of political stability and relative social harmony. This article utilizes a geographic regression discontinuity (GRD) natural experiment from history of moving borders between Denmark and Germany to examine the effect of belonging to a Scandinavian state on trust and cooperative behavior. Results from historical Danish rule prior to 1864 in North Germany and German rule in South Denmark from 1864 to 1920 suggest that institutional differences influenced early mass political behavior, but not social behavior. However, such early regime impacts petered out quickly. Today, there is little to no discernable difference in trust attributable to Danish state heritage in North Germany or South Denmark. This suggests that sizable differences in social trust between Germany and Denmark are instead attributable to post‐1920 factors.