当代埃及威权主义政治合法性的构建

1952年七月革命后,埃及建立起威权主义的政治统治模式。埃及之所以走上这条道路,从宏观角度分析其合法性构成至少具有三方面因素:首先,历史上根深蒂固的专制主义政治传统提供了长期而普遍的相适应心理环境,使人们在一定历史时期内能够接受威权主义统治;其次,革命后埃及加快现代化进程的经济政治动员,客观上要求威权主义政府的强力推动;最后,纳赛尔特性,以及纳赛尔、萨达特和穆巴拉克三任总统,都具有强烈的威权主义政治诉求所强制构成的合法性。     

"印度边疆文官"制度的形成及影响

本文探讨印度对英印政府边疆政治官员制度的继承问题。为了给"东北边境特区"配备基层行政官员,以便有效地实施印度对新占领地区的同化政策,尼赫鲁政府借鉴英印政府边疆政治官员制度的经验,由外交部具体负责选拔和管理,在1952年开始酝酿并且初步设立"印度边疆文官",1956年正式将"印度边疆文官"制度化。1960年代中期作为一种特别设立的基层官员被纳入印度行政文官体制和印度外交文官体制中。"印度边疆文官"制度的特别设立和演变过程,充分体现了尼赫鲁政府对英印政府边疆政治官员制度的继承,以及对华边界政策上与殖民政府边界政策的内在连续性。     

苏丹民族国家建构失败的原因解析

苏丹民族国家建构失败的主要标志就是2011年的南北分立。究其原因,首先是苏丹长期封闭落后,缺乏统一的历史实践和民意基础。埃及人以掠夺为主要诉求的征服式治理给苏丹的南北交往留下了深刻仇恨和痛苦记忆。阿拉伯穆斯林精英们以埃及为观察世界的窗口,在独立后未能有效运转英国人留下的国家框架。苏丹政府在独立后未能借助福利或社会保障体系减缓政治和阶级冲突;由于全球化带来的时代特征转变,苏丹政府也无法借助对武装暴力的合法性垄断减缓社会冲突,苏丹最终在内外因素的共同作用下走向分裂。分立后的苏丹和南苏丹依然面临着民族国家建构的任务。     

British and Italian Imperial Rivalry in the Mediterranean, 1912-14: The Case of Egypt

Although it is known that serious imperial rivalry between Britain and Italy in the Mediterranean only began in the Fascist period, this article argues that Italian expansionism had already begun to pose a threat to British interests in the Mediterranean in 1912 following Italy's colonization of Libya. While the Italian state was still militarily and financially weak at this time, an Italian private financial institution, the Banco di Roma, engaged in a number of ventures in Egypt that led to complications in state-to-state relations. The article shows that the seeds of Anglo-Italian antagonism were sown in the hostile climate of the Egyptian-Libyan border through a series of incidents in the period between 1912 and 1914.     

Diplomatic innovation: Nasser and the origins of the interests section

This article examines the origins of the interests section and the indirect role played by Nasser in its creation. After providing a formal definition, it goes on to examine two case studies: first, the confluence of events that led to the first use by Egypt and West Germany in May 1965; second, the technical details involved in establishing the first British interests sections as occurred in the Anglo-Egyptian example of December 1965. It concludes that both case studies were innovative responses to unusual circumstances and offer potential gains for further research in the area of 'disguised' embassies.     

Diplomatic innovation: Nasser and the origins of the interests section

This article examines the origins of the interests section and the indirect role played by Nasser in its creation. After providing a formal definition, it goes on to examine two case studies: first, the confluence of events that led to the first use by Egypt and West Germany in May 1965; second, the technical details involved in establishing the first British interests sections as occurred in the Anglo‐Egyptian example of December 1965. It concludes that both case studies were innovative responses to unusual circumstances and offer potential gains for further research in the area of ‘disguised’ embassies.     

The Legacy of Western Overseas Colonialism on Democratic Survival

Using an original dataset that covers the period from 1951 to 1995, we consider the enduring effects of Western overseas colonialism on the democratic survival of postcolonial democracies. We treat colonialism as a holistic phenomenon and differentiate the relative effects of its legacies with regard to the level of economic development, social fragmentation, and the relationship between the state and civil society. We find that Western overseas colonialism, a factor often overlooked in recent large- n studies, continues to have an effect on the survival of democratic regimes. We further find that the legacy of specific colonial powers has an important effect on survival as well. Unlike previous studies, we find that former Spanish colonies outperform British colonies when colonialism is conceptualized holistically. However, when we break colonial legacy into separate components (development, social fragmentation, and the relationship between the state and civil society), we find that the advantages former British colonies enjoy are attributable to the legacy of the state/civil society relationship. Moreover, we show that at least in the case of former British colonies, time spent under colonial rule is positively associated with democratic survival.     

Long-term monarchical survival in the Middle East: a configurational comparison, 1945–2012

The survival of eight monarchies during the “Arab Uprisings” has put centre stage the fundamental question about the durability of this subtype of authoritarian regime. Seen from a broader historical perspective, however, the idea that monarchies have an inherent advantage in retaining power is less evident: a number of authoritarian monarchies broke down and subsequently became republics (Egypt 1952, Iraq 1958, North Yemen 1962, Libya 1969, Iran 1979), while others survived (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). To account for these divergent long-term pathways we systematically compare the 13 current and former Middle East monarchies. Using a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we concentrate on five central explanatory factors derived from previous research – namely, external support, rent revenues, family participation, the monarch's claim to legitimate rule, and hard repression. Our findings highlight the existence of three broad pathways to monarchical survival – linchpin monarchies, like Jordan and Morocco, versus the dynastic Gulf monarchies – and also reveal a possible hybrid third pathway, one which shares linchpin characteristics, but relates to cases on the Arabian Peninsula (Oman and the historical Imamate in North Yemen).     

文明交往、国家构建与埃及发展

埃及是地中海世界和地中海文明的重要组成部分,自古以来具有大开放特征。埃及伊斯兰教化与阿拉伯化后,曾在中古时代一度辉煌,随后严重滞后于地中海北岸的资本主义文明。强化对资本主义文明的认同,有益于埃及现代民族国家的构建与未来的大发展。从文明交往的横向维度和历史发展的纵向维度探讨埃及的国家构建与发展问题,则为人们思考当前的中东变局提供了新的视角。     

英国殖民初期缅甸掸邦土司制度下的茶叶贸易

英国殖民初期缅甸掸邦的茶叶贸易在殖民者＂分而治之＂政策的统治下,在当地土司头人和代理商的重税盘剥下艰难地向前发展,最终迫于各种压力,困扰茶商的税费问题得到解决。同时,茶叶生产和茶叶贸易也带动了掸邦山区社会经济的发展。     

埃及变局后的以色列与埃及关系

2011年年初埃及爆发大规模抗议示威活动,导致穆巴拉克政府迅速垮台。埃及变局在以色列国内引起了极大的震惊,也严重影响到维持了30年之久的埃以和平关系。一年来,埃及和以色列双方围绕着《埃以和平条约》、天然气供应、边境安全等问题出现了摩擦,尤其是埃及民众冲击使馆事件给埃以关系蒙上了阴影。随着地缘政治环境的进一步恶化,一些间接因素也对以色列的安全构成了威胁,如埃及开放拉法口岸,接近哈马斯势力,同意伊朗军舰通过苏伊士运河以及坚决支持巴勒斯坦"入联"等无不引起以色列的高度警惕,以色列在中东地区面临着更为孤立的境地,国民固有的不安全感亦随之加剧。     

Deep Frustration of the Egyptian "Dream to Build a Powerful Nation"

For many years,Egypt sought to become a powerful nation,but failed in its efforts,because its ruling foundation has deviated from the majority of the broad masses,its development path has strayed from its goal of industrialization,and its extemal strategy has gotten away from the line of non-alignment.The lessons of Egypt should be learned by other nations.     

Egypt’s Foreign and Security Policy in Post-R2P Libya

Abstract

The post-intervention situation in Libya poses foreign and security policy challenges for Egypt. Egypt’s definition of the Libyan problem centres on two fundamental aspects: it is depicted as the consequence of an unfinished R2P military intervention, and perceived as part of a regional war against Islamist terrorism. All practical steps being taken by the authorities in Cairo are based on this dual framing. The implications of its positioning are, firstly, a securitised approach to foreign policy, including limited military interference and proxy support and, secondly, the emergence of a partisan position. To date, the impact of Egypt’s foreign policy line in the Libyan theatre has been limited and hence its viability risks being thrown into question.     

埃及的经济发展与社会问题探析

埃及进行经济体制改革,减少国家行政性控制,改变干预方式,扶植私营企业的发展,扩大市场机制作用的范围,扩大了资源的开发与利用。但在同时也扩大了贫富之间的差距;埃及人口增长速度远远超过了经济增长速度,国内就业空间有限,失业成为埃及经济发展的沉重包袱;通货膨胀更加重了广大低收入群体的生活困难;腐败问题进一步加剧了埃及的社会矛盾。上述问题说明,发展中国家在谋求经济发展的同时必须时刻关注民生,尤其是弱势群体的处境;必须将社会关系的和谐纳入发展战略,乃至发展概念本身。     

近代以降埃及现代化的探索

作为中东伊斯兰世界具有重要影响力的国家之一,埃及在近代西方的冲击下成为西亚北非地区最早着手现代化的国家,亦是该地现代化程度较高的国家,埃及的现代化进程无疑是伊斯兰世界的一个缩影。本文通过梳理近代以来埃及在政治、经济和社会层面的现代化轨迹,总结其现代化进程所面临诸多挫折困难的原因、教训和启示,有利于我们认识政治民主化、法制化、经济市场化、工业化、社会多元化和公民化等现代化的本质和内涵,为中东地区国家现代化发展进程以及存在的诸多问题方面提供了经验和借鉴。     

Keeping a Foot in the Door: Britain's China Policy, 1945-50

Based on Britain and China 1945-1950 (DBPO, 2002), this article examines four major themes in Britain's China policy between 1945 and 1950: British attitudes towards Chinese communism and China's civil war, Anglo-American relations over China, attempts to restore and sustain British commerce in China, and the future of Hong Kong. The central feature of policy was to 'keep a foot in the door', even under a communist government, to protect British interests. Only modest success was achieved. British officials were divided over the issue of Chinese communism and Britain miscalculated the timescale in the ending of the civil war. The US administration proved largely uncooperative over China, and British commerce was eventually squeezed out. Hong Kong survived as a British colony. Amidst the considerable thought given to the future of Hong Kong, and to Britain's ability to defend it, intelligence reported that the communists had no plans to seize the colony.     

Just the Two of Us? Civil Conflicts,Pro-State Militants,and the Violence Premium

Quantitative literature discussing violence in civil conflicts tends towards a typical model of engagement between governments and revolutionaries. Whilst recent work has shown the significant impact of multiple anti-government groups, a further feature remains understudied—the role of pro-state militants. This article theorizes a “violence premium” when such groups arise, which leads to all connected groups devoting greater energy to conflict than they would in isolation. Employing duration analysis and data from The Troubles in Northern Ireland, where Republicans act as revolutionary insurgents, Loyalists as pro-state militants, and the British Army as government forces, the violence premium is empirically confirmed. Both Loyalists and Republicans deviate from their underlying strategies to attack more frequently when violence by their rivals increases, with Republicans and the British Army engaging in the same way. An extended analysis, accounting for the status of the victim, shows that the violence premium resulting from interaction between Loyalists and Republicans targeted only the civilian population of Northern Ireland, elucidating the sectarian component of The Troubles. These results show that including all conflict parties and considering how they are linked are important features in studies that aim to determine the net level of violence in civil conflicts.     

论“埃及事件”的特点及成因

发生于2011年初的埃及政变体现了现代化的政变模式，其在程序、成本甚至特点上都呈现出与以往政变所不同的全新特征。以埃及政变为代表的这类事件有其自身的形成机制，公民社会和社交网络在其中发挥了重要作用。     

Muted criticism in Egypt (Part 2)

Egypt, the heart of the Arab world, is the dominant player in Arab‐Israeli and inter‐Arab affairs. Close scrutiny of political and intellectual trends in Egypt tells us much about these trends throughout the Arab world. Reporting from a country such as Egypt, which has an authoritarian form of government, presents problems for journalists and researchers. There is much criticism of the government, but it is muted, often lying just below the surface. One must try to discern the underlying political reality without seeming to criticize the government. Journalists who are considered pro‐Israel are viewed with suspicion. Journalists who ask probing questions may be classified as pro‐Israel. This study examines the complex fabric of Egyptian political reality through interviews with prominent intellectuals and government leaders. The interviews focus on crucial areas of foreign policy.