均势生成机制的类型与变迁

本文从理论上梳理了均势生成的一般机制,认为均势这一体系状态的形成和维持主要依靠三种途径,分别是外部制衡、内部制衡和大国的自然成长。在不同的权力结构中,有不同的主导生成机制起作用。在多极体系中,均势主要依靠大国之间联盟关系的形成与转换来维持;在两极体系中,均势的维持主要依靠大国之间的军备竞赛,即内部制衡;在单极体系下,均势依靠权力中心的自然成长得以恢复。利用多极和两极状态下的历史案例,文章检验了这一核心假定,并考察了均势生成机制变化的原因,在此基础上探讨了单极体系下均势回归的可能性。文章认为,在权力结构与生成机制之间,联盟的可获性、制衡的实力门槛以及制衡所负担的成本等三个要素起着因果链条的作用。     

Analysis of the relevance of traditional leaders and the evolution of traditional leadership in Zimbabwe: A case study of amaNdebele

Abstract

This article analyses the Ndebele institution of traditional leadership in contemporary Zimbabwe. It traces the pre-colonial Ndebele traditional leadership in order to establish the changes that have occurred as well as their causes. The article highlights the importance of indigenous knowledge systems (IKS), especially in leadership which is highly controversial in Africa. Traditional leadership is the indigenous way of leadership which can, in a good way, influence contemporary governance for the benefit of the people. The article takes an Afrocentric approach with a clear understanding of the dynamism in culture. It then proceeds to reveal the problems (and their causes) within the traditional leadership institution in contemporary Zimbabwe. Finally, the article recommends solutions to the problems.     

Causes of the Collapse of the USSR

The paper studies Russia's Ukraine policy since the Orange Revolution. Russia's policy toward its western neighbor has evolved from unhappy relations with Victor Yushchenko to rapprochement with Victor Yanukovich and then confrontation over the revolutionary power change in Kiev in February 2014. The paper argues that Vladimir Putin's actions following February revolution in Kiev demonstrate both change and continuity in Russia's foreign policy. Although these actions constituted a major escalation, relative to Russia's previous behavior toward Ukraine, the escalation of relations with Kiev also reflected a broader policy pattern of Russia's assertive relations with the Western nations adopted by the Kremlin since the mid-2000s. What made Russia's conflict with Ukraine possible, even inevitable, was the West's lack of recognition for Russia's values and interests in Eurasia, on the one hand, and the critically important role that Ukraine played in the Kremlin's foreign policy calculations, on the other. The paper provides an empirically grounded interpretation of Russia's changing policy that emphasizes Russia–Ukraine–West interaction and a mutually reinforcing dynamics of their misunderstanding. It also addresses four alternative explanations of Russia's Ukraine policy and discusses several dangers and possible solutions to the crisis.     

The Mixed Temporalities of Transnationalism in Dreams of Speaking

This article explores the mixed temporalities inherent in Gail Jones’s treatment of transnational grief in Dreams of Speaking (2006). I examine the novel’s interests in modernity and temporality and show how the atomic bombing of Nagasaki, in the novel, creates grief that is shared across national boundaries. The novel explores the coexistence of the modern and the unmodern, and Jones exemplifies this in the spectral nature of grief; it haunts the two protagonists throughout Dreams of Speaking. This article reads the coexistence of modernity and the unmodern alongside the ways in which Japan unsettles Eurocentric notions of colonial modernity (with its insistence on shared temporalities of progress) by having been a colonial power as well as by undertaking substantial modernisation in the postwar period. I employ Harry Harootunian’s notion of “mixed temporalities” to show the transnational dimensions in the cross-cultural interaction this novel facilitates. I compare the novel’s treatment of the bomb, and of temporality, to Salvador Dalí’s The Disintegration of the Persistence of Memory (1954) and highlight the transnational sentiments in Jones’s treatments of the tropes of water and resonance.     

The Class of 96: A Biographical Analysis of New Government Members of the Australian House of Representatives

The 1996 federal election brought thirty-six new government members into the House of Representatives. The size of the "Class of 96" provides an opportunity for a comparison of biographical characteristics, looking for common experiences and backgrounds, as well as for an exploration of similarities and differences with previous cohorts of Coalition MPs. This examination will suggest that, in biographical terms, the "Class of 96" represents a significant new development in Australian politics. Further, a detailed analysis of the first speeches of the members of the "Class of 96" provides a window into the minds of those who have sought and achieved office on behalf of the Liberal and National parties after thirteen years in the political wilderness.     

美国第115届国会涉台立法探析

第115届美国国会的涉台立法在立法数量上达到空前规模。这些立法有些已通过立法程序而成为公共法律,有些尚未完成立法程序,内容涉及美台之间的政治、经济、军事交往,以及对台军售和台湾的国际参与等诸多方面。以《与台湾交往法》为代表的涉台立法挑战了"一个中国"的政策,破坏了中美关系的政治基础,对中美关系产生了严重的负面影响。美国涉台立法的这一现象反映出在两岸力量对比发生明显有利于大陆的变化后,美国行政和立法部门试图以立法手段实现对台湾的"再保证"。虽然美国涉台立法的实施取决于行政部门对相关政策可行性的认知和判断,但以《与台湾交往法》为代表的涉台立法已成为中美关系的破坏性因素。     

东亚区域的生产分工、产品需求结构与贸易模式转型

东亚区域生产分工经历了产业间、产业内和产品内三种分工形式以及雁行和生产网络两种分工模式的演进路径,并且影响着东亚区域内产品需求结构的变化。对外部最终产品市场的严重依赖是东亚区域产品需求结构的主要特征,东亚区域外需主导型的贸易模式亟待转型。中国在东亚贸易模式转型过程中将发挥重要的作用。     

The global reach of the principle of subsidiarity: the case of Australia

ABSTRACT

The diffusion of the principle of subsidiarity across countries and regions has taken on a variety of forms. In the case of the EU and Australia the observed variation is most striking. The detailed comparison of the governance arrangements in a quasi-federal system with those of a fully established federation reveals a continuing divergence in the actual recognition of subsidiarity concerns.     

从模式演变看冷战后公共外交的转型

从跨学科的视角出发研究公共外交,公共外交既有其国际政治的特征,又有其国际传播的特征。世界主要公共外交强国在进行这项活动的时候,往往是以国家利益为主体,借助新闻传播手段取得了巨大的效果。本文主要就公共外交的主要模式进行了研究:首先梳理了公共外交研究的主要模式演变,试图探索公共外交的学科框架构建;其次结合公共外交实例,根据不同的传播目的,对公共外交的传播模式进行了归纳,将其划分为修复模式、建构模式、影响模式、渗透模式和颠覆模式,并对每一种模式的传播主客体关系、传播渠道、传播过程以及传播效果的有效性进行了分析。     

美国“民主联盟”战略的困境

《普林斯顿报告》提出建立"民主联盟"战略构想后,曾经一度引起战略研究界的广泛关注。然而,奥巴马上台后,并未明确提出采纳"民主联盟"战略构想,表明该战略遭遇挫折。但是,奥巴马政府未采纳"民主联盟"战略,只是一种策略考虑,而不是战略抉择。从长远角度来看,推进民主符合美国的全球战略利益,而且也存在继续推进民主的国际条件。因此,作为推进民主的一个重要手段,"民主联盟"战略也有被重新考虑和实施的可能。     

试论缅甸佛教青年协会

通过对缅甸佛教青年协会产生的背景、诞生及其活动的论述和分析,本文认为:缅甸佛教青年协会在缅甸近代历史上具有特殊的历史意义,即它是缅甸历史上第一个具有近代民族主义性质的组织;它对缅甸人民民族主义意识的普遍形成起了重要作用;通过它缅甸人了解和认识了缅甸以外的世界,使缅甸近代民族主义运动在发展之初就与世界的近代民族主义运动,尤其是与亚洲的近代民族主义运动产生了密切的联系.另外,佛教青年协会的性质及其活动使得缅甸近代民族主义运动从诞生的那一刻起就打上了宗教的深深印痕,该会的领导策略和方法也为以后的缅甸近代民族主义运动提供了有益的借鉴.     

Communication of the Israeli Leadership with Families of Fallen Soldiers

The article examines the Israeli leadership's attempts to explain and justify the harsh outcomes of deployment of force on behalf of the state. It analyzes Commemoration Day Letters sent by representatives of the State of Israel to the families of soldiers killed in action from 1952 onwards, focusing on significant changes in the relation between the individual and the collective. The major turning point is expressed in Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin's letters from the mid-1980s, in which the sanctity of life appears as an ideal guiding the state's political establishment. Applying Roman Jakobson's model of communication, the article claims that this turning point marks a shift from a collective, story-oriented approach in which the national narrative was offered as consolation for the loss to a communication-oriented approach, in which those undersigning the letters are presented as personal communicators rather than national narrators. Against the background of problems of legitimacy embedded in this approach, the article analyzes how recent letters refrain from taking either an individualistic or a collective standpoint.     

文化自信视域下红色文化价值的系统审视

红色文化是马克思主义与中国实践相结合的产物。马克思主义是红色文化的理论来源,中国共产党领导的革命、建设与改革实践是红色文化的实践基础。红色文化具有民族的科学的大众的精神内核,在不同时期具有不同的表征,在政治、经济、社会、文化等领域发挥重大影响。坚定文化自信,蕴含着红色文化的当代价值,只有克服当前弘扬红色文化的一系列梗阻,才能实现对这一价值的塑造。     

The global threat of race in the decomposition of struggle

ABSTRACT

Many of the struggles that emerged in the wake of the 2008 global economic crisis eventually experienced decomposition in the face of multiple internal and external threats. While movement composition and decomposition are inevitable in the natural cycle of popular struggles, this article argues that what David Theo Goldberg has termed “the threat of race” constituted one important factor that brought about the eventual demise of these popular mobilizations. By drawing on the cases of US Occupy Wall Street, European anti-austerity protests, and South African struggles against xenophobia, it points to global continuity in anti-blackness across disparate geographies. As these same regions currently confront the threat of righting authoritarianism, this article argues we must also take a self-reflexive look at the seeds of reaction embedded in otherwise progressive and left-wing formations in order to achieve a more sobering account of our present predicament.     

苏维埃制度崩溃原因的初步分析

苏联解体的轻率和突然令人震惊,但官方的苏联历史是神化的.并非国有制过度这种所谓的恶疾导致了苏维埃体制的崩溃.苏联经济落后及其被军备竞赛所耗尽只是意识形态的神话.石油价格波动同样未在苏联解体过程中发挥重要作用.后苏联时期俄罗斯相当长时期内的危机,不是从苏联延续下来,而是在拆解苏联时形成的.只有极少数公民有意识地否定苏维埃制度的主要基础.厘清苏联解体的原因,需要我们应打破教条和陈词滥调以及意识形态语言的藩篱.应区分苏维埃构想和其在实践中的具体表现--苏维埃制度.苏维埃构想并没有消灭自己,也没有退化或自我毁灭,而只是在成长中出现了疾病,其一系列制度无法适应苏联社会和苏联人发展的新形势.苏联体系的主要特点,或者说斯大林主义,是在 1905-1917年革命、内战、20 世纪 20 年代的新经济政策、30 年代的集体化和工业化、卫国战争期间形成的.当时的环境导致苏共在具体的制度设计上选择的范围很小,只能基于现实的威胁、资源潜力和历史上造就的具有惯性的文化环境.二战结束后,苏联的领导层未能妥善解决摆脱"斯大林主义",摆脱动员发展状态这样的复杂问题,进而导致了一系列的政治危机并由于冷战而深化其严重性.苏联既是被冷战的对手所扼杀,更死于自己的双手.苏联合法性的危机酝酿了 30年才成熟.苏维埃制度早期的合法性源自对群众对社会苦难的记忆.伴随着城市化的发展,至 20世纪 60-70年代,苏联社会从根本上发生了改变.但城市化给对苏维埃的不满制造了客观的前提条件.一种隐性的危险日益增大,即以前的苏维埃制度的思想基础迅速急剧地衰弱乃至消失.苏联短期内有两代感觉自己毫无生活保障的年轻人被改革、公开性、集会以及文化多元论弄得神魂颠倒.精英阶层的反苏部分的行动利用了这种世界观危机并使之加剧.而新一代领导人既无法迅速揭示也无法预防社会上已经出现的矛盾,而且无法找到有效的方法解决成熟的问题.党的高层与苏联社会现实的脱离令人震惊,他们自以为掌控着国内进程,但实际上底层的干部掌握着形势.这使得戈尔巴乔夫日益激进的改革导致雪崩式的后果.从这一意义上讲,苏联的解体是文明和世界观危机的结果.其实质在于,苏联社会与国家没能胜任在代际更替的过程中更新社会制度合法性手段的任务;无法保障文化历史类型嬗变的延续性,这种递嬗发生在现代化和城市化过程中并和整个社会走出20世纪20至50年代的动员型发展状态的危机相吻合.     

Perils of the Deep: The Dangers of Submarine Proliferation in the Seas of East Asia

Abstract

Greater numbers of submarines are being acquired in the Asia-Pacific. This development poses challenges in the region for preventive diplomacy, maritime confidence building, and ensuring the safety of submarine operations. However, countries are extremely sensitive about submarine operations and meeting these challenges will be difficult. The article discusses technological developments with submarines and antisubmarine warfare and the implications for regional naval operations. It identifies the risks associated with increased numbers of submarines, particularly in the narrow seas of East Asia, and recommends measures that might mitigate the adverse consequences of submarine proliferation, including enhancing submarine safety. It concludes that there is a pressing need to start discussion of these measures in regional forums.     

The Soviet study of the Barefooted Flight of the Kazakhs

The defeat, devastation and exile of the Kazakhs in the early eighteenth century, commonly known as the Barefooted Flight, was the nation's most distressing pre-Soviet calamity. Kazakh nation-building and official remembrance projects – commemorated in state ceremonies, public education and popular culture – portray an uninterrupted, centuries-old practice of tribute to local heroes who challenged the foreign aggressors. Twentieth-century Kazakh and Russian intellectuals in the Soviet and post-Soviet eras studied and enshrined these events based on published, secondary sources, rarely giving attention to the thin trail of documents preserved in state archives. The historiography of the Barefooted Flight exposed a trend in how politically convenient historical lessons shaped the interpretation of events. By the end of the Soviet Union, some archival material was introduced, it was but misquoted so as not to challenge the current interpretation.     

Politics of Representation

The moral education of the people has been viewed historically as a function of good government in China. Models have played an important role in this educational process, constantly making people aware of correct behavior and correct ideas. Since 1949, so-called propaganda art in the People's Republic of China has played a major supporting role in the many campaigns that have been designed to mobilize the people, with the propaganda poster being the favored vehicle to convey model behavior. In the twenty-first century, state-inspired education and the posters it produces are fighting an uphill battle to grasp the attention of the people. This illustrated article discusses the state of state-sponsored propaganda art and highlights the various social and artistic pressures that weigh on the propaganda poster in the era of reform. The author examines the changes in the government's communication strategy, and focuses on the changing way in which propaganda art has been used in the reform era, the technical innovations that have been applied, and the topics that have been selected by the government as subjects for propaganda campaigns. The patriotism of the late 1990s is a topic that receives special attention. Finally, hypotheses are presented about the possible alternative applications of the medium in the light of recently published propaganda posters.     

论福兰阁1899年的朝鲜旅行日记

1899年福兰阁在上海德国总领馆任翻译期间，曾到朝鲜做了为期一个多月的旅行，对当地的风土人情以及当时的政局都做了比较详细的记录和说明。本文首次以这些日记为依据，对福兰阁对朝鲜的认识做了梳理，并进行了初步分析。