日趋成熟平衡的巴西与美国关系

2007年3月,巴美两国总统的互访使近几年矛盾较多的巴美关系有了一定的转机,同时也激起了巴西国内对巴美关系的热烈讨论。总体而言,卢拉基本沿袭了自20世纪70年代以来巴西政府的政策传统,两国关系依旧保持着“合作与矛盾共存”的基调。相比与卡多佐执政的8年,卢拉执政期间巴美关系中的矛盾成分更多,存在矛盾的领域也相对较广。即使如此,两国关系并未因为矛盾的增多而出现恶化的趋势,这一方面反映了巴美关系进入了一个相对稳定的阶段;另一方面体现出巴西在巴美关系中的主体性得到了加强,并且也在一定程度上得到了美国的认同。     

Putin's Silovarchs

Since the late 1990s, most of Boris Yeltsin's oligarchs have left the political stage. In their place, a new business elite has sprung up, most from the network of security service and law enforcement veterans known as the siloviki (roughly, “power agents”) who form the backbone of President Putin's administration. Indeed, the security forces’ takeover of corporate boardrooms is coming to define Putin's regime. Silovarchs can deploy intelligence networks, state prosecutors, and armed force to intimidate or expropriate business rivals. Their temptation to use secret service tools and techniques predisposes the regime toward authoritarian politics. Western policy towards Russia will have to recognize these realities. The most promising path toward authentic democracy in Russia involves the cooptation of leading siloviki into the international business world.     

Moving Towards a New Era

The aftermath and effect of the September 11 terrorist attacks differs from what occurred after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Gulf War. Nevertheless, for the United States, September 11 is an event with considerable historical significance.     

Covering HIV/AIDS: Towards a heuristic comparison between communitarian and utilitarian ethics

Abstract

This article considers two approaches to ethical decision-making on the issue of reporting on human immunodeficiency virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS)-related deaths in the popular media. The conflict between cultural values and the public interest is explored via the ethical approaches of communitarianism and utilitarianism. The death of a former South African presidential spokesperson, is taken as an illustration of how these approaches might lead to different ethical decisions.     

Towards a theory of inter-organizational networking

This article combines inductive and deductive theory building to identify building blocks for a theory of inter-organizational networking, a phenomenon that has gained prominence in international relations, but is largely neglected by IR scholars. Organizational and network theory are identified as the major starting points for theory building. Hypotheses are generated from the network of Euro-Atlantic security institutions, which has become the most sophisticated network of its kind since the early 1990s. The article looks specifically at the genesis of dyadic inter-organizational relations and of entire networks, at the relevance of networking for policy output and at the system effects that networks have on individual organizations. The theoretical findings are presented so as to allow a transfer to other geographical and functional areas of networking.

A Balanced Force Structure To Achieve a Liberal World Order

In addition to preexisting threats such as the rise of China, the United States now faces a protracted struggle against Islamist terrorists. The military component of the nation's security strategy requires a balanced force that can be employed across the spectrum of conflict. The Iraq War has shown the “1-4-2-1” force-sizing construct—maintaining a force able to defend the homeland, operate in and from four forward regions, simultaneously defeat two regional adversaries, and achieve a result such as regime change in one of them—to be unattainable. But by spending 4.5 percent of GDP on defense and with the right force mix, America will be able to lead coalitions against terrorists, restore order to unstable regions, do peacekeeping in regions of vital interest, deter aggression, and win a war if deterrence fails. The benefits of the resulting world order far outweigh the costs.     

Towards a holistic theory of speaker credibility

ABSTRACT

Recognising that the credibility of speakers is important, especially within the political context, this article argues that an adequate conceptualisation of the construct of speaker credibility is needed and that such a conceptualisation should be premised on an acceptable ethical framework. The article then evaluates the often used ethical systems and, subsequently, proposes criteria for ethically acceptable persuasive communication, to which political communication belongs. The major theoretical perspectives within which speaker credibility has been conceptualised, labelled structuralist, functionalist and constructivist, are critically evaluated. A holistic theoretical view of speaker credibility is then proposed, in which speaker credibility is understood as a construct with a hierarchically ordered stock of universal and context-specific dimensions of relational, content-related competence, performance and moral qualities.     

Towards a relationship with the Mediterranean countries

Fifteen years ago, the European Union (EU) launched a Common European Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). Since then, the CSDP has been the focus of a growing body of political and scholarly evaluations. While most commentators have acknowledged shortfalls in European military capabilities, many remain cautiously optimistic about the CSDP’s future. This article uses economic alliance theory to explain why EU member states have failed, so far, to create a potent common defence policy and to evaluate the policy’s future prospects. It demonstrates, through theoretical, case study-based and statistical analysis, that CSDP is more prone to collective action problems than relevant institutional alternatives, and concludes that the best option for Europeans is to refocus attention fully on cooperation within a NATO framework.     

Towards a universal framework for democracy assessment

Assessing the state or quality of a country's democracy has become an increasingly widespread undertaking over the past ten years, whether to construct league tables of democratic attainment, to explore correlations between democracy and economic condition or performance, or to identify likely recipients and projects for international aid. This article reports on a civil society-based programme and framework for democracy assessment in which the author has been involved, whose purpose is to contribute to public debate about a country's democracy, to monitor its progress over time, and to identify pressing areas for reform. Distinctive features of the methodology are the derivation of assessment criteria from clearly articulated democratic values, its relevance to new and established democracies alike, and the comprehensiveness of the assessment framework, covering citizen rights and the rule of law, institutions of representative and accountable government, civil society and participation, and international dimensions of democracy. The article explores the intellectual underpinnings of the assessment methodology in the universal validity of democratic norms and a common imperative for democratization in developed as well as developing countries; and argues for the framework's usefulness in teaching as well as research. It concludes with a brief report on the comparative findings from pilot assessments undertaken with in-country partners in eight countries from across the world.     

欧美关系重塑: 构建从盟友到伙伴的新平衡

欧美关系发展和转型将对世界格局演变产生重要影响。拜登政府重新重视盟友、重回多边主义的对外政策,为欧美关系的修复带来新希望。但是,国际格局变化和秩序重塑、欧美各自内部政治和社会分化等结构性力量,决定了双方关系转型进程不可逆转。欧美战略日益疏离、利益不断偏移、认同逐渐弱化,决定了大西洋关系整体走向弱化,将从盟友关系向更加平衡的伙伴关系转型。     

Margin Call: How to Cut a Trillion from Defense

America's military has proven incredibly effective and adaptive to the threats of the 9/11 era. It has not, however, been particularly cost-conscious. Insolvency is our gravest national security threat, and – thankfully – the Congress has finally gotten serious about dealing with it. Defense is in for a decade of austerity, of a magnitude that cannot be accommodated within current strategy and forces. Much higher risk will need to be accepted in how we fight our wars and address threats of lesser magnitude or longer lead times unless we find more innovative approaches. Foregoing counterinsurgencies, simplifying our war aims, protecting our advantages in creativity, restructuring military benefits, shifting greater responsibility to allies and emphasizing cost-exchange ratios in our operations will be necessary. It is a daunting list, and wearying to a military that has shouldered the burdens of wars for a decade with little contribution from our broader society. But it, or something like it, will also be necessary to redress the dangerous vulnerability or our debt.     

Towards security governance as a critical tool: a conceptual outline

This article argues that security governance can and should be reframed as a critical tool that enables us to understand and reappraise concrete practices of security provision. Security governance needs to move beyond the functional mapping of different governing arrangements and the presumption that security governance leads to effective and legitimate problem-solving in a quasi-automatic manner. In this article, we propose a framework that identifies the essential characteristics of security governance and turns them into critical questions with the aim to reveal persisting frictions and dilemmas. First, we trace the rise of security governance as concept and practice over the past decade and identify its central characteristics with regard to prerequisites, structures and consequences. Second, we reframe the core characteristics of security governance into critical questions and thereby develop an understanding of security governance as a critical tool. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of this approach with examples from EU security governance.     

Towards a Nuclear Weapon Free World: Indian Perspectives

A Nuclear Weapon Free World has been proposed warmly in recent years.The author discusses the current global situation on this subject and that India has sustained interest in nuclear disarmament and presents what contribution India has made for nuclear disarmament.From India’s ethos,traditions and legacies,the author provides Indian perspectives towards building a Nuclear Weapon Free World.