An improved methodology for analyzing age-arrest profiles: Application to a Western Australian offender population

A new methodology for displaying and analyzing arrest profiles of a population of offenders is illustrated on a data set containing information on all arrests made in the jurisdiction of the state of Western Australia in the 12-year period 1 April 1984 to 31 December 1995. The arrest profile shows the number of arrests accumulated by an individual offender as a function of the age at which each arrest took place. This provides a summary of the arrest careers of the individuals in the population and facilitates comparisons between groups of interest in the population, such as sex and race groups. In particular, it enables comparisons to be made between cohorts of offenders defined by the age-at-onset of their offending. For the Western Australian population analyzed here we find large differences between sex and race (Aboriginal or non-Aboriginal) groups, and also between age-at-onset cohorts, and we place these differences in the context of current criminological discussions which posit that higher mean numbers of offenses will be committed by early career starters.     

Measuring the Convergence/Divergence of “Serious Crime” Arrest Rates for Males and Females: 1960–1995

It is now almost a quarter of a century since Adler (1975) and Simon (1975)stimulated a debate about the convergence of crime rates for men andwomen. The ensuing debate generated literally dozens of papers. Given theexistence of a series that now extends from 1960 to 1995, this papersuggests an appropriate way to examine the convergence hypothesis usingtime series techniques. These techniques take into consideration the effectsof the following factors: (a) random shocks orinnovations, (b) the potentially lasting effects of suchinnovations, and (c) the autocorrelation that time series oftenexhibit. Using time series techniques on annual data, we examine trends inthe arrest rates for males and females for six Part I crimes (homicide,robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft)for the years 1960 through 1995. We test for convergence, divergence, notrend, and a special condition of equilibrium between series calledcointegration.     

Forfeiture and money laundering laws in the United States

Today Europe is faced increasingly with the phenomenon of organized crime, creating problems similar to those the United States faced as early as a decade ago. American forfeiture and money laundering laws provide the state with sweeping powers for use in its efforts to combat organized crime. Although study of these instruments might inspire European lawmakers to adopt similar ones, the instruments themselves carry a societal price tag that cannot be ignored. Classical principles limiting the reach of the criminal law (and the powers of its enforcement apparatus) and in a broader sense the liberal concept of the fragmentary nature of the criminal law have largely been abandoned by lawmakers in the area of organized crime. Thus, modern American forfeiture and money laundering laws have lowered the standards of protection against state intrusion into citizens' basic rights despite the lack of sufficient empirical proof that their investigative and punitive powers are efficient in skimming profits and deterring further crime.     

Trade Secrets, Firm-Specific Human Capital, and Optimal Contracting

Trade secrets are innovations jointly produced by firms and employees that are generally not protected by patents. They are commonly protected within the framework of labor contracts, where an obligation of confidentiality is imposed upon the employee. Specifically this obligation applies to the employee even after he has left the employer for a period of time determined in the contract, known as a cooling off period. Often employees are prohibited not only from revealing trade secrets, but also from utilizing their specific human capital developed at the original place of employment in competitor firms during this period. Their specific human capital is in effect inseparable from the trade secret. Failure to protect the trade secret will result in its revelation and its becoming public and hence worthless for the innovator. The inability of an employee to reveal trade secrets and utilize his specific human capital after leaving his place of employment imposes costs and losses upon him. Some form of compensation will be paid for these contingent losses within the employment contract. Employers know that the longer the cooling off period imposed upon employees, the greater employees must be compensated for this in the contract. Longer cooling off periods thus cost the employer more, but also enable him to earn greater rents from the innovation itself. In this paper profit-maximizing periods of trade secret protection are derived, based on these two countervailing factors, and comparative statics exercises are performed. How the selection of profit-maximizing periods of trade secret protection when the incidence of resignation is itself affected by contract parameters and incentives is explored.     

The Cost of the Game: A Taxonomy of Social Interactions

This paper considers the role of reciprocity rules in various strategic settings. After distinguishing four typical categories of social interaction, the paper examines three forms of reciprocity constraints. An ideal rule of perfect incentive alignment (structural reciprocity) serves as a benchmark for the analysis of a golden rule of reciprocity, characterized by a mechanical linking of one player's strategy to that of the other player; and a silver rule of stochastic reciprocity, characterized by a probabilistic symmetry in the relationship between the players.     

Plan and counterplan: Notes on moving beyond the crisis in planning theory

Conclusions In developing a working class perspective of planning theory, I have suggested that neither bourgeois nor Marxist planning theories can incorporate the dissensus tactics that are at the heart of working-class movements. Neither can they deal with the class nature of planning nor the class composition of planners. As the current social, political and economic crisis was forced on capital by the struggles (plans) of the working class, it follows that working-class counter-plans should deepen the crisis so that benefits will accrue to our side. The development of our successful counter-plans will throw their planning theory deeper into crisis. Ultimately, crisis resolution must be on the terms of the (ex-)working class.     

Selective Incapacitation Revisited

The term incapacitation is an important criminological concept that implies that the offender's capacity to commit new crimes is to be concretely obstructed or reduced through confinement. The purpose of selective incapacitation is to select those particularly prone to violence and to incapacitate them. The paper presents a critical analysis of the risk prediction enterprise. The paper addresses the accuracy of prediction, the ethics of prediction, and in particular the research culture within which research on prediction occurs.     

Time-Varying Risk Factors for Reassault Among Batterer Program Participants

This study uses longitudinal data to identify risk markers for reassault among batterer program participants. Data are from 308 men and their partners collected at five, 3-month intervals. Time-varying situational and behavioral risk factors, as well as time-invariant individual characteristics, are examined. The most influential risk markers, in terms of relative risk and level of statistical significance, were time-varying: 2 measures of the man's drunkenness during the follow-up interval in which the reassault occurred (OR: 3.5-16.3; p > .0005). Other included time-varying batterer characteristics had no significant effect on reassault. Two significant time-invariant batterer risk factors were (1) severe psychopathology and (2) a history of non-domestic-violence arrest, both measured at intake. Results suggest that batterers' drinking behavior after program intake may provide an important and easily observed marker for risk of reassault and that prediction of reassault with individual risk factors at program intake remains problematical.     

Precedent Externality, Network Effect, and the Possible Inefficiency of the Evolution of Laws

Using the traditional scenario of tort conflict as an example, I argue that the marginal precautionary costs of injurers and victims are not constant, as was assumed by most previous researchers. The precedent of a liability rule has some natural externality on the precaution technology, and hence marginal cost, faced by future agents involved in torts. The adoption of legal rules therefore has a network effect, meaning that the present prevalent adoption of one rule increases the probability of its future adoption. Treating the dynamic evolution of legal rules as a random process, we are able to apply an established result in the literature of network economies to conclude the path-dependence, non-predictability, and potential inefficiency concerning the final legal rule to which the dynamics converge.     

Social sciences and the evolving concept of corruption

The term corruptio appears in many languages, but behind it lie several contrasting strands of thought and language. Current political usages of corruptio--emphasizing bribery, which in turn is just one of several families of ideas to which the term has variously been attached--date from the late 18th or early 19th century, have been strongly influenced by Anglo-Saxon legal thought, and may be traced to Roman roots. But French lexicographers developed a richer and more diverse vocabulary to encompass the crimes of civil servants and judges in addition to those of the people who sought to influence them. Religion, and in particular offices within the Church, also strongly influenced the ideas and vocabulary of corruption. Ultimately, corruptio can be said to have Biblical origins and a core meaning centered around injustice. The complexity and richness of the idea of corruption, as viewed from that perspective, in often lost in the narrower and more technical usages that dominate contemporary debate and analysis.     

Narcotics trafficking and the American mafia: The myth of internal prohibition

Numerous books assert that the Mafia long had a prohibition against engaging in narcotics trafficking, either for reasons of morality, or else because of the public stigma attached to drugs. In reality, there are many problems with the belief in voluntary abstention. The mythical nature of internal prohibition, and the far different reality, will be illustrated from the case of Philadelphia, supposedly the base for one of the most powerful and traditional-minded of all the American Mafia groups, the family headed from 1959 to 1980 by don Angelo Bruno. We will attempt to explain the roots of the prohibition myth, both for writers and for the wider public that appears so endlessly enthusiastic about sagas of organized crime. Finally, the paper examines the implications of this myth for policy makers in successive wars on crime.     

From fiddle factors to networks of collusion: Charting the waters of small business crime

Small business crime has been largely ignored in American criminology; studies of nontraditional crime have focused mainly on corporate crime or on the misdeeds of employees pursuing personal gain. This paper calls for criminologists to redirect their efforts toward the systematic study of small business crime. In particular, it advocates in-depth qualitative studies that explore small business culture and opportunity structures, and that examine the networks of collusion that subvert the legitimate economy. The paper concludes with illustrations from an own story currently being shared with the author by a small businessman who participated for five years in an urban crime network that infiltrated the redistributive economy.     

Constancy and change in the U.S. age distribution of crime: A test of the “invariance hypothesis”

The recent controversy over the age relationship with criminal behavior can be traced to Hirschi and Gottfredson's (Am. J. Sociol. 89, 552–584, 1983) failure to define invariance. In this paper, I distinguish two types of invariance—parametric andmathematical form— that explains both the pattern of stability claimed by Hirschi and Gottfredson and the pattern of variability observed in more recent research. I then directly test for each type of invariance using age-specific arrest data for index offenses in the United States from 1952 to 1987. The results are largely consistent with recent research showing variability in the characteristics (i.e., parameters) of the age distribution of crime, but at the same time, the results provide evidence for a persistent, underlying mathematical form to the age distribution of crime, regardless of year or offense type.     

Interviewing Preschoolers: Comparisons Of Yes/No and Wh- Questions

This study investigated the influence of question format on preschool-aged children's errors, their response accuracy, and their tendency to say I don't know when given non-misleading questions in a neutral, unbiased context. Children (3 to 5 years old) participated in a craft-making session that included a staged accident with two experimenters differing in gender and appearance; the environment also had several distinctive features. One week later children were interviewed about actions, participants, and environment; questions were yes/no format with the veridical response yes (yes questions), yes/no format with the veridical response no (no questions), and specific wh- format questions. Question format substantially influenced children's responses: they were most likely to make errors if asked no questions, and were unlikely to answer either yes/no question with I don't know. In contrast, children spontaneously and frequently said I don't know to wh- questions about content they did not recall (environment), but not about content that was well recalled (actions). Implications of question format for reliability of eyewitness testimony by preschoolers are discussed.     

Charge reduction: An analysis of prosecutorial discretion in burglary and robbery cases

Although a substantial number of researchers have studied charge reductions taking place within the context of guilty plea negotiations, few have focused on estimating the determinants of charge reductions taking place at the initial screening decision. The prosecutor's decision to reduce original felony charges to a misdemeanor has serious social, legal, and economic consequences for the suspect. This paper presents a model of the variables affecting the likelihood of such a reduction in burglary and robbery offenses. Drawing from Littrell's principled charging perspective and earlier research on labeling, the analysis involves estimating logistic regression equations specifying both main and interaction effects of the suspect's gender and race and variables related to suspect character, case seriousness, and legal seriousness. Partial support is found for Littrell's perspective.     

Own-race bias in lineup construction

The lineup identification of a suspect is often a critical stage in a criminal investigation. One factor which may affect the fairness of a lineup is bias on the part of the person constructing the lineup. the own-race bias, the tendency of individuals to perceive more similarity in the appearance of other-race members than in their own, may affect lineup development. Black subjects and white subjects were asked to construct lineups using both black and white suspects. On three of four measures, their behavior was very similar while making white lineups but different on black lineups. Relative to their performance on white lineups, white subjects became less selective on black lineups but black subjects became even more selective on black lineups. Both groups displayed own-race bias by being more selective about own-race photos than other-race photos. This lessening of selectivity may make lineups constructed by cross-race lineup constructors less fair than lineups constructed by own-race lineup constructors.     

Do Standards of Proof Affect Decision Making in Child Protection Investigations?

Every state investigates child maltreatment reports. Some states use a lower standard of proof of some credible evidence (or similar terms) to substantiate cases after investigation. Other state legislatures prescribe a higher standard of preponderance of the evidence. Legislatures use these terms of art as a matter of policy to control the risk of false-positive errors. A lower rate of substantiation should follow from a higher standard of proof. There was no statistically significant difference in the percent of substantiated and the percent of unsubstantiated cases in the two groups of states. If state policy to reduce the false-positive error rate is to be effective, something more is required than simply manipulating the verbal formula in legislation.     

Sex @ the End of the Twentieth Century: Some Re-marks on a Minor Jurisprudence

This article offers a re-reading of Goodrichs essay, Law in the Courts of Love. My contention here is that the idiom of love that Goodrich provides us with in this essay cannot address the complexity of sexuality and sexual politics that inhabit our contemporary technoscientific culture. In so doing, I will juxtapose his essay with Laven Berlant and Michael Warners essay, Public Sex. This article will be divided into three sections. In the first section, I will evaluate and review Goodrichs genealogical approach to law and the image of justice that arises out of his approach. The second section will be a re-reading of Goodrichs Law in the Courts of Love through feminist and technoscientific discourses. Its aim is to problematise and re-think not only the idiom of feminine justice that Goodrich offers, but also to question the presuppositions upon which his work is based, primary presuppositions surrounding issues of privacy, sexuality and sexuated rights. Finally, in the third section I will conclude by suggesting that the re-figuration of justice necessitates a re-figuration of the relationship that law has with time and space.     

Formal rationality,substantive justice,and discrimination

This study examines the extent to which a juvenile court uses legal, substantive, and discriminatory criteria in assessing dispositions. The indicators of legal criteria are the seriousness of offense and the extent of prior arrest record, of substantive criteria, the presence of family and school problems, and of discriminatory criteria, race and social class. An examination of the dispositions accorded to a sample of 464 fourteen and fifteen year old arrestees in one juvenile court shows that, while discrimination in sentencing is minimal, the court is more likely to use substantive than formal criteria of decisionmaking. These findings suggest that studies of the juvenile court should be reoriented away from their traditional focus on legal and extralegal determinants of decision making toward a focus on substantive criteria.This study was supported by Ford Foundation under grant no. 73-96. We are grateful to Jackson Toby, principal investigator, for his aid in all phases of this study. William Smith and Antonia Steegen provided invaluable research assistance. This is a thoroughly revised version of a paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Criminology, November, 1977.     

Toward an Empirical Approach to Evidentiary Ruling

This paper responds to criticisms/misconstruals of our measure of the maximum probative value of evidence (D. Davis & W. C. Follette, 2002), and our conclusions regarding the potentially prejudicial role of intuitive profiling evidence, including motive. We argue that R. D. Friedman and R. C. Park's (2003) criticisms and example cases are largely based on inappropriate violation of the presumption of innocence. Further, we address the merits of our absolute difference measure of probative value versus those of the Bayesian likelihood ratio championed by D. H. Kaye and J. J. Koehler (2003). We recommend methods for presentation of measures of evidence utility that convey complexities of interdependence between new and existing evidence. Finally, we propose a probable cause standard for admission of potentially prejudicial evidence, dictating that admissibility of such evidence should be contingent upon other substantial evidence of guilt.