东南亚国家的汇率制度改革与变迁研究

自布雷顿森林货币体系瓦解至今,东南亚国家的汇率制度经历了五个阶段的改革与变迁.在旧汇率制度下,东南亚国家的名义汇率与实际有效汇率有其显著的特点.1997年金融危机爆发之后,东南亚国家都放弃了原有的"软性"钉住美元的汇率制度,采纳了有管理的或独立的浮动汇率制度.新的汇率制度表现出程度不同的"高频钉住美元"和"低频钉住美元"的混合模式的特点,并面临本币升值的压力.新自由主义理论所鼓吹的"中间汇率制度消失论"不符合东南亚的实际情况.     

亚洲金融危机与日元国际化

布雷顿森林体系崩溃后,国际货币体系实际上处在一种“无制度的制度”之中,特别是亚洲各国和地区的货币制度,在经济全球化,金融自由化的浪潮中缺乏自律,导致波及全球的金融危机爆发。众所周知,这场金融危机实际上是一场货币危机。正如世界银行首席经济学家日本东京大学河合正玄教授指出的,亚洲各国采用的“事实上钉住美元的汇率制度是这场危机爆发的主要原因之-”。加速日元国际化,促进亚洲货币合作被再次提到议事日程上来。而且,更加严肃、紧迫地摆在亚洲人民面前。     

建立东亚固定汇率区:构想、困境与现实选择

东亚货币一体化的最终目标是建立东亚固定汇率区,实现东亚单一货币.目前,关于建立东亚固定汇率区有六种代表性构想,每一种构想都有其优势和缺陷.在东亚实际钉住美元的汇率制度下,东亚汇率制度的选择面临困境.选择东亚合意汇率制度、构建东亚固定汇率区,首先要实现双边汇率稳定,再实现"次区域"汇率稳定,最后实现东亚整体汇率稳定.     

东南亚金融危机对河北省财政经济的影响及对策

东南亚金融危机尚在继续,危机的影响后果尚未完全显现出来,但目前看,这场危机对河北省财政的影响主要有以下三个方面。 (一)影响财政收入的增长。财政收入是靠出口、国内生产、生活消费来实现的。由于金融危机造成日韩、东南亚等国家和地区的汇率下降、货币贬值、经济紧缩,使河北省对亚洲国家和地区的出口大幅度下降。去年秋季广交会,河北省与东南亚、日本及港澳地区出口成交比上届分别下降24.3、52.7和3.4个百分点。由于对日、韩和东南亚地区出口占河     

浅议中国与东南亚国家的国际贸易关系

中国与东南亚国家在出口贸易上的关系 ,一直是是经济学界讨论的一个热点问题。根据目前比较流行的两种范式———“雁行模式”和“贸易竞争关系模式” ,对中国与东南亚国家的关系有两种完全不同的解释。目前有一些学者 ,特别是一些国外学者比较倾向于用后一种模式来解释。这种解释从表面上看似乎存在一定道理 ,但若仔细分析中国与东南亚各国的出口市场份额、出口结构及决定各国出口贸易的因素 ,就会得出中国与东南亚各国的经贸关系更大程度上属于产业和技术引进的合作关系。良好的东亚经济关系和经济环境是该地区持续发展的一个根本前提 ,中国与东南亚各国不存在 ,也不应该存在货币贬值的“多米诺骨牌效应” ,东南亚金融危机与中国在九十年代初进行的外贸与汇率制度改革以及人民币汇率的变动根本不具有相关性 ,构建东亚地区贸易及货币协调机制是东亚地区寻求经济发展的一个努力方向。     

东南亚金融危机因果剖析

东南亚金融危机因果剖析陈乔之进入９０年代以来，国际金融市场风波迭起，金融狂飚于１９９２年横扫英伦三岛，导致英国退出欧洲汇率机制；１９９４年又横扫墨西哥，直接影响北美大陆，波及欧亚市场。当时，就有经济学家预言，下一次的金融危机可能在亚洲爆发，果然不出所...     

新加坡安度金融危机及其原因

由于东南亚经济高度一体化，新加坡面对来势凶猛的金融危机，不可避免地受到冲击：它的货币已贬值１５％，它的股票市场损失了３５％。然而，这个东南亚的小小岛国，在危机中表现出强大的承受力，把危机的影响控制在最低限度。新加坡总理吴作栋在１９９８年的新年献辞中以...     

泰国金融危机纵横谈

泰国金融危机纵横谈张良民今年７月初以来，经济增长速度最快和最富有活力的东南亚国家，经历了一场前所未有金融危机，这是自１９９５年墨西哥货币危机以来最严重的金融动荡，令世界瞩目，引起了许多国家的严重关注和深思。这场金融危机始于泰国。７月２日，泰国中央银行...     

革新开放以来越南汇率制度的演变

本文考察了越南自1989年汇率并轨后至2012年间越盾汇率的变动趋势及汇率制度的演变,分析了不同时期越南实际实行的汇率制度。和中国一样,革新开放后越南的汇率制度变革整体上也是成功的,为经济的转型与长期的经济增长提供了制度保障。在目前管理浮动汇率制的框架下,越南形成了单一钉住美元为主的汇率制度,这使得越南成为继中国之后新近加入"东亚美元本位"体系的国家。     

东亚货币合作与中国的角色分析

如何加快东亚货币合作的进程一直是理论界积极研究的课题.亚洲金融危机直接催生了东亚货币合作,建立亚洲货币基金是应对危机的直接反应,"10 3"模式和"清迈协议"是亚洲货币基金思想的具体实践,亚元则是东亚货币合作的最高理想,但目前正在展开的货币合作方案对危机援救的实际效果有限,且受到诸多因素制约.因此,进一步完善清迈货币互换体制、建立区域内汇率稳定机制、发展亚洲债券市场和最终建立东亚共同货币区等分阶段渐进模式是今后东亚货币合作的最好选择.作为地区性大国,中国应该积极参与东亚货币合作进程并发挥主导作用.     

US Trade Deficits and Sino-US Relations

American politicians and policy makers have blamed China's exchange rate for the large US trade deficits. This paper explains why the USA treats its trade deficits with China as a security issue that have become a source of friction in Sino-US relations. The essay argues that this friction is a useful deflection from the politically difficult policy action needed to remedy the US economy and cannot easily be removed by the Chinese side alone. The structure of global trade and the reality of China's political economy, which forces Chinese leaders to develop policies for a “harmonious society” in the face of growing inequality also makes it difficult for China to respond positively to US pressure on the exchange rate.     

Asian Common Currency as a Driving Force of Economic Integration in East Asia: A Prospect

This article proposes an open and multi-tiered economic and financial system with introduction of an Asian common currency as a form for the Post Bretton-Woods arrangement. After reviewing the role of the incumbent international economic system, the reasons that an Asian common currency could contribute to consolidate the new international system is discussed bearing in mind the new environment of the relative decline of economic power of the United States and relative rise of economic power of China. Then a “roadmap” for the introduction of an Asian common currency is provided and how to proceed steadily on the long road towards the introduction of the new currency is argued. In particular, it is emphasized, as the world looks for a new direction, that strong political collaboration in the region is required precisely now with a view to making this a reality.     

What Macroeconomic Measures Are Needed for Free Trade to Flourish in the Western Hemisphere?

Recent experience has made clear the importance of macroeconomic stability, and exchange rate stability in particular, in generating support for regional integration. The tensions created by exchange-rate and financial volatility are clearly evident in the recent history of Mercosur and may also hinder the development of a Free Trade Area of the Americas. This essay argues that ambitious schemes for a single regional currency are not a practical response to this problem. Nor would a system of currency pegs or bands be sufficiently durable to provide a lasting solution. Instead, countries must solve this problem at home. In practice, this means adopting sound and stable monetary policies backed by a clear and coherent operating strategy, such as inflation targeting. With such policies in place, exchange rate volatility can be reduced to levels compatible with regional integration.     

The United States and East Asia in an age of financialization

This article starts from Peter Gowan's notion of a Dollar-Wall Street Regime (DWSR) characterized by financial deregulation, the dollar as the world's currency, large international capital flows, and frequent financial crises. The author argues that the DWSR has relied on a special economic relationship between the United States and East Asia, characterized by large East Asian trade and current account surpluses with the United States and the investment of East Asian dollar holdings in U.S. capital markets. For some time both parties benefited from this relationship, but eventually it gave rise to financial crises in East Asia. Thus, Japan's financial crisis around 1990 and the 1997/98 East Asian financial crisis are both related to economic over-accumulation caused by the buildup of currency reserves through trade with the United States. Attempts at East Asian monetary integration since 1997 are viewed as a potential challenge to the DWSR. These attempts have however been blocked or rendered harmless by regional divisions as well as by U.S. resistance. While an East Asian political challenge to theDWSRis unlikely for the time being, the special U.S.-East Asian economic relationship may become substantially weakened by the growing problems of the U.S. economy.     

Trends of Marxian Ratios in South Korea, 1980–2014

ABSTRACT

This article explores the dynamics and contradictions of capital accumulation in South Korea from 1980 to 2014 by analysing the rates of surplus value and profit and criticises two theses of financialisation and income-led growth. The rate of surplus value soared after 2000 because the real wage growth was contained by the neo-liberal onslaught against workers. The profit rate consistently declined after 1987, paving the way for the 1997 crisis and its main driver was the rising organic composition of capital. After the 1997 crisis, the profit rate rebounded for six years thanks to the intensified exploitation of workers. From 2002 until the 2008 global financial crisis, the rate of profit dropped again. However, contrary to the financialisation thesis, there has been no substantial transfer of surplus value from the real sector to the financial sector. Our results also show that the accumulation rate determined income distribution, not vice versa, contradicting the income-led growth strategy, now popular among the Korean progressives. Marxian macro-dynamics is operating as usual in Korea.     

Financial liberalization in South Korea

This article analyzes the process of financial liberalization in South Korea from the perspective of financial globalization through an international political economic approach. Korean financial liberalization has been highly influenced by the outside pressure of the United States, the OECD and the IMF, as well as by the big business conglomerates (chaebols), as a powerful domestic interest group. In a broad perspective, South Korea's entrance into the OECD, the Financial Services Agreement under the WTO and the Structural Adjustment Program of the IMF after the 1997 financial crisis were important moments for Korea's financial reforms. There are two viewpoints on the causes of the Korean financial crisis. From a domestic viewpoint, South Korea had a weak financial market system and its financial liberalization process was too premature to create a stable financial market when Korea met the financial crisis. In a globalization perspective, financial globalization intrinsically encourages uncontrollable short-term financial capital flows across borders, thus financial crisis is inevitable regardless of a strong or weak domestic financial system. This article compares these two viewpoints in the case of South Korea.     

Challenges for currency cooperation in East Asia

The defects of the current international financial system are creating tremendous distortions in the economies of East Asia. For the time being, most of the developing countries in East Asia have no choice but to adopt some sort of a flexible, wider band system (crawling band) while resorting to capital control when necessary, in order to avoid the recurrence of the Asian currency crisis. Japan's approach to building a stable international financial system in East Asia has gone through several stages since the late 1970s. Though the latest approach of setting up the Asian Bond Fund (ABF) is a step in the right direction, the ABF has severe limitations in reducing the risks for the developing countries in Asia. The ABF needs to be replaced by the Asian Bond Corporation (ABC) in order to develop an international capital market in Asia and use the abundant saving in Asia for financing the growth of Asia. In the process of expanding the activities of the ABC, Asia can adopt the notional common currency based on a basket of major currencies. That notional currency will pave the way toward introducing the Asian common currency, which can be the ultimate goal for the economic cooperation and integration in East Asia. In the meantime, while enhancing currency cooperation, East Asia needs a lender of the last resort in order to keep its economy from collapsing from another currency attack. Japan has been trying to play that role and is poised to take that responsibility as the largest and the most developed economy in the region. International capital markets and a truly international currency must be supported by numerous institutions and intellectual frameworks. Asia is yet to build those institutions. To help build those institutions, we in East Asia need to establish a new international research institution which would coordinate the strenuous intellectual efforts needed for building institutions that bolster the international capital market in Asia. The envisaged new institute can be dubbed the "Asian Monetary Institute," or "AMI."     

俄罗斯卢布汇率安排的经济效应分析

俄罗斯转型时期的宏观经济波动与汇率制度安排之间存在着密切的关系.本文在评述新兴市场经济国家汇率制度选择困境和概述俄罗斯汇率制度演变的基础上,从汇率与通货膨胀、汇率与对外贸易、汇率与资本流入、汇率与外债规模结构变动等方面分析了汇率制度安排及汇率变动的宏观经济效应,并简要总结了俄罗斯的实践对中国的启示.     

The politics of bank ownership and currency policies in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper argues that state-owned, private domestic, and foreign banks have different preferences for exchange rate policies. More specifically, I posit that governments will be less willing and able to maintain fixed exchange rate arrangements in closed banking systems dominated by government-owned banks than in globalized banking systems with a large presence of foreign banks. The article’s principal claim rests on the notion that ownership structure of the banking system empowers different types of banks, affects their interests, and shapes the responsiveness of government politicians to bank demands. The bank ownership types further influence the stability of the domestic monetary system and financial regulation that are of paramount importance in the determination of exchange rate regimes. An empirical investigation of data on exchange rate regimes for 25 Central and Eastern European countries provides strong support for the theory. The results are robust to alternative estimation techniques, instrumental variable analysis, and the inclusion of several economic and political variables.