Stalled democratization of an authoritarian regime: The case of Algeria

Algeria has experienced important transformations since the bloody riots of October 1988. Numerous political reforms have been initiated, due to the pressure exerted by an emerging civil society; also the regime has been subject to fragmentation, thus exacerbating the power struggle among various political clans. The now‐banned Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), emerging as the most powerful party, eclipsed the old ruling party, the National Liberation Front (FLN). Algerian society today is completely polarized while the intensification of violence since the interruption of the political process, in January 1992, has prolonged the political stalemate. This article deals with the reasons why the authoritarian rulers initiated a process of democratization in the first place: the principal political reforms; the contending parties in the political arena; the reasons for the initial popularity of the FIS and the tactics used by factions of the FLN‐State to prolong the life of the old regime. Also the role of the military in the democratization process and its attitude towards the Islamists; the reasons for the failure of the process; and the nature of the current impasse. This study highlights the difficulty of modernizing a neo‐patrimonial society where the influence of religion is dominant, which has little or no democratic tradition, and where clientelism is all‐pervasive. Our thesis is that democratization failed mainly because it was initiated in an undemocratic manner ‐ and in the absence of prior (negotiated) agreement on the basic rules of the political (and electoral) game.     

Pakistan: An Unsettled Nation

Pakistan faces many problems. The struggle over the country's Islamic dimension is undecided. Pakistan continues to be a hotbed of Islamic fervor. As evidenced by the frequent interruptions of civilian rule by military regimes the country is not sure which course to follow. Violence has become Pakistan's trademark. The jihadi culture is frightening. Poverty and underdevelopment are wide spread. The educational system is a mess. Integration of the different ethnicities has not been completed. Enmity characterizes the relationship to India, mistrust that to Afghanistan. Its nuclear weapons capability is looked upon with suspicion by Western countries. Fundamental changes will only be possible if Pakistan finds its way to democracy.     

辞典与话语权：19世纪马来文化的现代化转型

马来文化在19世纪实现了从古典到现代的转型，这种转型的主要表现方式是来自不同文化背景的学者通过编纂辞典来实现对马来文化话语权的争夺。马来布吉斯贵族学者阿里·哈吉、英国东印度公司学者威廉·马斯登和华人移民学者冯穗滋便是伊斯兰教、基督教和儒家思想三大文化阵营的代表人物。这场话语权争夺战的结果塑造了现代马来文化的雏形，因而对我们理解现代东南亚文化的历史源流有重要意义。     

Political violence in Algeria

It is estimated that over 20,000 people have died in civil conflict in Algeria since January, 1992, and no resolution is in sight. This article analyzes the current state of civil violence in Algeria in terms of a theory of collective rebellious behaviour stressing falsification of public preferences, adapted from the work of Timur Kuran. The theory links social and psychological factors to explain why the outcome of the political challenge mounted by radical Islamic groups has been stalemate rather than an Islamic revolution or the restoration of stable authoritarianism. It suggests that the outcome of the struggle in Algeria is unpredictable.     

国际油价走势对俄罗斯产业结构的影响分析

近年来,国际原油价格不断攀升,给俄罗斯带来了巨额财富,从而保证了俄罗斯经济连续多年的快速增长。但是,高油价在给俄罗斯带来好处的同时,也对俄罗斯经济未来发展带来了潜在的不利影响:抑制了本国产业结构的调整,影响了国家经济安全和可持续发展。从国际石油价格走势来看,油价高位将会持续下去。因此,俄罗斯产业结构的调整在短期内将难以得到根本解决。     

中、俄、蒙三国的油气合作

中国处于石油资源相对贫乏的东亚西太平洋区域,总体石油资源不足;俄罗斯东西伯利亚和远东地区的石油和天然气储量丰富,蒙古石油矿藏集中在中蒙两国边界地区,这为中、俄、蒙的油气合作提供了可能,并且从蒙古直接穿过进入中国的中俄石油管道是最近、最安全的线路。从未来发展的趋势看,中国可积极利用俄蒙的资源投资与合作,参与输气、输油管道的建设,拓宽和夯实中俄油气合作的经济基础。     

评析俄罗斯与阿拉伯国家油气开发合作

石油和天然气部门在俄罗斯经济中占有优势地位,从而使能源成了俄罗斯与阿拉伯国家合作的主要范畴。目前,俄罗斯一些公司正快速向世界盛产石油和天然气的十几个阿拉伯国家渗透。俄罗斯此举的的目的在于,保证俄罗斯作为世界能源大国和欧洲主要能源供给国的地位,确保俄罗斯在当代国际地缘政治和资源争夺中的优势,保护本国资源,获取更大的经济利益。     

加强东北亚区域能源合作 保障我国能源安全

当前我国能源特别是石油进口持续增加 ,能源安全面临着严峻的挑战 ,存在来源风险、运输风险和市场风险 ,需要通过区域能源合作来保障我国能源安全。东北亚区域除我国外 ,既包括油气资源丰富的俄罗斯 ,又有缺乏油气资源但资金雄厚的日本和韩国 ,发挥各国优势加强东北亚区域能源合作 ,是防范我国和区域内其他国家能源风险、避免对能源资源恶性竞争的有效途径。在参与东北亚地区的能源合作中 ,我国应建立一种整体的、相互协调的战略思路 ,寻找各方的利益共同点以促进区域内能源合作 ,同时还必须增加与区域外的联系 ,实现能源进口渠道的多元化。     

The United States' approach to Algeria's civil conflict: Implications for democratization,internal peace and anti-American violence

The United States' approach to Algeria's civil conflict has been based on the stringent assumption that a choice must be made between a secular government that is prowestern (although corrupt and repressive) and an Islamist regime that is anti-western (although equally repressive if allowed to govern). The article shows that this approach not only works to sustain authoritarianism in Algeria and reinforce a vicious cycle of poverry and civil violence, but also ignores the causal links between the practice of dictatorship in the country and the rise of anti-American violence. In this sense, America's foreign policy towards Algeria is a contributory factor to transnational terrorism. An alternative approach that is based on economic development and democracy promotion is proposed here to achieve sustainable democracy and internal peace in Algeria and weaken the forces that give rise to antiAmerican violence.     

Amnesty,peace and reconciliation in Algeria

Amnesties constitute the most contentious issue in transitional justice processes. While largely rejected for contravening international law and being morally objectionable, political realities may sometimes force us to accept them in the interest of peace and stability. Determinations about the desirability and effectiveness of amnesties to promote peace thus need to look beyond legalistic claims, and take into account the specific political context within a country, as well as the nature of the amnesty itself. Taking the case of Algeria, where an amnesty was adopted in 2005 with the Charter for Peace and National Reconciliation, this article argues that although the amnesty can be justified partially by the fragile political context in Algeria and may contribute to reducing levels of violence in the country, its effective contribution to peace and reconciliation will be limited because it has, so far, not been accompanied by other political and economic measures necessary to bring peace and stability to the country, and because it promotes amnesia and largely ignores the plight of the victims of the war.     

越南饮食文化及其结构中的农业烙印

“民以食为天”,说明饮食是人生存的第一需要,不可一日缺少,因此,饮食向来受到普遍的注意和重视。越南民族同中华民族一样把饮食问题当作天下头等大事,这是很有道理的。它不仅能满足人们的生理需要,而且也因其具有丰富的文化内涵,在一定程度上也满足了人们精神层面的需求,从而形成了丰富多彩的饮食文化。一、越南饮食文化观念饮食是维持生活最重要的一个方法。但是,西方文化和东方文化对于这个领域的观念是有所不同的。西方人把饮食视为不值一提、寻常的事情。西方哲理这样讲:“人为了活而食,不是为了食而活。”越南是一个以农业为主的国家,…     

Cooperation and stability in the mediterranean: An agenda for partnership

Turkey, a candidate state that started negotiating membership in the EU in 2005, has witnessed serious political conflict since April 2007 when the military threatened to intervene once again in the political process. The Chief Prosecutor filed closure cases before the Constitutional Court first against the Democratic Society Party, the first pro-Kurdish party to enter parliament, and then against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) which won a landslide election victory in the parliamentary elections of July 2007. The Court decided by the slimmest of margins against the closure of AKP, allowing the country to narrowly escape one of its worst political crises. The attempted “judicial coup” can only be explained by the state ideology of and the nature of democracy in Turkey. The political conflicts are related not to a fight over dismantling or protecting secularism, but to the power struggle between old and new elites in the country.     

国大党联盟政府执政的问题和对策

印度自2 0世纪90年代以来,其政局进入了多变动荡期,第十四次大选虽由国大党联盟执掌印度政局,但它却面临着诸多的问题和严峻的挑战。国大党联盟政府为稳固自己的执政地位,制定了相应的对策。     

地缘政治学与现时代

随着全球化的不断发展和科学技术的日益进步,地缘政治学似乎已经过时了。但是,从地缘政治学的理论立论来看,“人与自然环境”的联系链条作为其立论的依据是始终存在的,地理环境对国家政治行为的影响是客观的事实。在现时代,分析冷战结束以后的国际政治现实以及中国所处的国际环境,也说明了地缘政治研究的重要意义。因此,现时代的地缘政治研究性质抛弃了原有的旧观念,是用适应时代发展的新的观念来考察新的国际政治现实,其意义更为重要。     

Can oil-reliant countries democratize? An assessment of the role of civil society in Algeria

A cursory look around the world shows that few oil-reliant countries can be categorized as democracies, particularly those in the Middle East. In fact, many studies have suggested that oil wealth hinders democratization. The recent “Arab Spring” and subsequent political instability in oil-producing states such as Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Syria gives rise to questions regarding the prospects for democracy in these types of countries. This article provides an analysis of the possible role that civil society may play in democratization in oil-reliant states by looking at the case of Algeria. I argue that the seemingly meaningless and artificial acts of “liberalization” initiated by the Algerian government in the late 1980s, which initially allowed civic associations to form, have provided an opening for some civic associations to organize and oppose the government. This process of liberalization, regardless of how empty it may have seemed at first, has “opened floodgates” that now cannot be closed. Thus, the recent protests in Algeria, and continued opposition to the government, can be seen as directly facilitated by the government's prior liberalization and opening of the system to civic associations.     

Older women, health, and social care in Singapore

A key demographic feature in the high-income country of Singapore is that women have longer years of life than men, and the aging pattern in Singapore is similar to that of Northern Europe. This paper describes how this current generation of older Singaporean women aged 65 and above experiences declines in health status and well-being as they age. Their vulnerability is the higher risk of chronic illnesses stemming from longer life expectancy and a lower likelihood of access to appropriate health and social care. This is because health and social care in old age are mainly financed by individual out-of-pocket spending which includes support from adult children. Unlike Northern Europe, Singapore does not yet have a well-developed social welfare system to support women in old age.     

Making Democracy Work in Bolivia

The struggle to build stable democracies in weak Latin American countries mirrors the Herculean task faced by fragile states in many other parts of the globe. Within Latin America, the fault lines between competing visions of the state, the economy, and national identity are particularly stark in Bolivia, which is divided along ethnic, geographical, and socioeconomic lines. That country's new president, Evo Morales, has the mandate that would permit him and his government to transform Bolivia in a way that would set a powerful example for countries throughout the region. The United States can and should support his efforts as long as they are designed to deepen and broaden the roles of democracy and a free-market economy in Bolivia.     

Pipeline Diplomacy: The Geopolitics of the Caspian Sea Region

The Caspian Sea region is important to world energy markets because it holds large reserves of undeveloped oil and natural gas. In order to fully utilize these resources several challenges need to be addressed. These include an accurate assessment of the region's hydrocarbon resources; rivalries between regional and international powers; domestic ethnic conflicts; and lack of appropriate export routes. This study examines these four obstacles. It argues that the region could help increase world energy security by diversifying global sources of supply; however, the notion that the Caspian's oil and gas can be the panacea to long–term global energy security is misguided.     

2004年俄罗斯油气工业的现状、问题与前景

2004年是俄罗斯油气工业快速发展的一年,石油和天然气的产量、出口量及加工量都保持了强劲的增长势头。但是,尽管2004年俄罗斯油气工业的整体形势比较令人满意,可油气资源基地的滞后发展和出口管线问题在一定程度上制约了俄罗斯油气产量的增长。因此,寻找、勘探、开发新油气田,加快油气运输基础设施建设的步伐是俄罗斯油气工业未来的发展方向。     

略论越南的“水文化”

越南地处中南半岛,且大部位于热带地区,终年高温多雨,江河密布。越南人民传统以鱼类为主要肉食,以稻米为主要农作物,这些都与"水"有着密切的关系,导致越南的传统文化带有深深的"水"文化的烙印。本文依据国内外资料进行一些概略性的论述。由于越南饮食文化和旅游文化深受"水文化"的影响,甚至前两者的某些内容也包含有"水文化"的内容,本文也对"水文化"与饮食文化、旅游文化的关系进行一些粗浅的研究。