Lumpy preference structures

A widely held and durable normative position has been that policy analysts should attempt to estimate the evaluative reaction of those who will be most directly affected by a government sponsored or regulated technology. The premise of applied welfare economics is that citizens would divide, substitute and additively recombine their assessments of the project's impacts in the same manner. This paper outlines an alternative theory by arguing that citizen preferences will often be contingent upon, rather than divisible from, the substantive and procedural characteristics of the context in which a choice takes place. Moreover, one can predict that the manner in which these evaluations are substituted and recombined will vary with the internal structure of one's value and belief system. By representing that system in terms of a hierarchical model composed of four factors — common orientation, procedural judgment, desire for personal control and substantive evaluation — it is argued that the evaluations of a project will be combined by way of interactive, indirect and non-recursive relationships as well as the common additive expectations. Some of the implications of this alternative theory for policy analysis are explored.     

SCIENTIFIC FACT AND VALUE IN U.S. OCEAN DUMPING POLICY

Controversy among scientists over appropriate use of the ocean for waste disposal impedes U.S. policy in this area. The problem arises in part because scientific uncertainty over the fate and effects of wastes released into the ocean requires a large element of judgment, and hence value, when the uncertain science is applied to policy. Scientists often supply that judgment and so impose their values, though seldom explicitly, on policy. Further, science often determines policy because many perceive it as an objective basis for decisionmaking and so less subject to the debate that arises from weighing public preferences in policymaking. Thus, scientists' values rather than the public's come to set policy. The resulting policy may elevate one expert's values over another's. Then as values and so interpretation of science shift, policy changes. Or, as in the case now with arguments over the ocean's ability to assimilate many anthropogenic wastes, conflicting science, really conflicting values, results in an agreement and policy inertia. These problems are partially circumvented when scientists make the nonscientific factors behind their reasoning clear. These factors may then be evaluated by the public along with the supporting scientific evidence. Thus, weighing the welfare of society rather than resolving conflicts among scientists becomes the focus of policy.     

Controlling technology by shaping visions

In policy theory, technology assessment is most effective when applied in the early stages of research and development, when changes are easier. This ability depends on the qualities of the given tools. Visions and metaphors enjoy much attention today because they provide an early but sustainable orientation. Understanding their necessarily ambivalent nature, their social function, and their cognitive significance provides the basis for their use in analysis. Working with visions more systematically than we do today can improve the selection of technological alternatives. While the method of assessing future technologies with metaphors will not (and cannot, just like all other technology assessments) forecast subsequent decisions, it provides insights about tomorrow's technologies that can inform today's decisions.     

问责性与跨域治理之条件检视与体制建构——PAM与IAD观点

地方政府间为达到资源优势的共享和资源劣势的互补，应形成一水平的合作治理关系，然却因本位主义、政党立场及缺乏信任而成效有限。笔者参考欧美公共事务相关课题领域之区域分析、项目分析、政策分析及1991至1998年于台湾高雄推动都市营销之经验等，及对应个体（个人）认知本质的判断与决策理论等，从多元社会观点切入对于个体认知及群体行为之观察，并涵盖载体存量之影响而成的PAM（Public Affairs Management）整合架构，此与Ostrom教授等发展之IAD（Institutional Analysis and Development）架构应可人体对应，本研究结合二者探讨台湾的问责性与跨域治理之条件检视与体制建构。     

Cognitive Biases in Governing: Technology Preferences in Election Administration

Cognitive biases are heuristics that shape individual preferences and decisions in a way that is at odds with means‐end rationality. The effects of cognitive biases on governing are underexplored. The authors study how election administrators’ cognitive biases shape their preferences for e‐voting technology using data from a national survey of local election officials. The technology acceptance model, which employs a rational, means‐end perspective, suggests that the perceived benefits of e‐voting machines explain their popularity. But findings indicate that cognitive biases also play a role, even after controlling for the perceived benefits and costs of the technology. The findings point to a novel cognitive bias that is of particular interest to research on e‐government: officials who have a general faith in technology are attracted to more innovative alternatives. The authors also find that local election officials who prefer e‐voting machines do so in part because they overvalue the technology they already possess and because they are overly confident in their own judgment.     

ANTHROPOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY IN ALASKA: RECENT POLICY RELATED TO LEGAL SYSTEMS NATIVE SUBSISTENCE AND COMMERCIAL FISHERIES

The past and potential contributions of anthropology to public policy have been described andlor argued for by numerous writers in the past decade, but the primary application and concern have been at the national and international levels. The present paper continues this discussion, but focuses on state-level policy in Alaska. The work of three Alaskan anthropologists is presented; they have made significant contributions to policy in the areas of law, Native Alaskan subsistence rights and fisheries management. Their work is evaluated in the context of a five-step model for conducting policy analysis which begins with the assessment of policy-making environments and ends with an evaluation of policy alternatives. The primary policy concerns of the anthropologists discussed involved the traditional research focus of anthropology, Native Alaskans; however, the tools they employ and background they bring to their work, the specific kinds of policy issues and problems confronted, are not as traditional. One of the anthropologists discussed is atlingit Indian completing doctoral studies at Harvard University, another is a lawyer-anthropologist, and the third is highly trained in biological and economic theory as well as computer technology. It is argued that the "hyphenated" anthropologist, at least as exemplified in the cases discussed, is most readily equipped to make policy relevant contributions.     

Policy analysis as a hermeneutic activity

Any piece of policy analysis must be appropriate to the context of its intended use. Social science often fails as policy analysis due to insensitivity to context. This paper explores a number of different modes of policy analysis to determine the circumstances in which the application of each is appropriate. It is argued that each mode is appropriate only under a fairly limited set of conditions; many of the problems policy analysis encounters are a result of attempts to apply a mode outside its niche. Greater use should be made of what is developed here as a hermeneutic model of policy analysis, appropriate in a residual set of conditions which none of the traditional models of policy analysis copes with adequately.     

On the uses of econometric models: A guide for policy makers

This paper reviews the evidence on ex ante and ex post forecasting with econometric models, considering in particular the role of human judgment in improving forecast accuracy. The importance of human judgment in econometric forecasting and the general superiority of ex ante over ex post forecasts provide evidence of model misspecification, which casts doubt on the validity of econometric policy simulations. An inadequate basis for selection among alternative models with differing policy implications undermines further the utility of these models in policy analysis and in testing hypotheses. Despite this record of performance macroeconometric models thrive and are widely used in policy analysis. Some reasons for their survival and importance in policy are suggested, and guidelines for the use of econometric models in the policy process are given.     

Europäisierungsdruck und Parteiendifferenz in den deutschen Bundesländern

Based on the 2008 Rüffert judgment by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) which dealt with wage-related compliance requirements laid out in several German federal state procurement laws (Tariftreueerfordernis) the convergence induced by Europeanization through law is being investigated. Contrary to the initial presumption of unilinear adjustment, three different responses are identifiable. Conservative-liberal governments abolish the respective regulations. Conservative governments which are subject to influence from associations representing small- and medium-sized business enterprises absorb the adjudication by a rapid adjustment consistent with the European requirements. Coalitions led by the Social Democratic Party tend to a policy expansion influenced by smaller coalition partners. They codify more rather than less social and environmental standards in policy amendments. The case study points out the persistence of political party differences in the face of Europeanization which is dependent on a sufficient degree of programmatic incongruence as well as on the plurality of European law.     

Stochastic models of the Social Security trust funds

Each year in March, the Board of Trustees of the Social Security trust funds reports on the current and projected financial condition of the Social Security programs. Those programs, which pay monthly benefits to retired workers and their families, to the survivors of deceased workers, and to disabled workers and their families, are financed through the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Funds. In their 2003 report, the Trustees present, for the first time, results from a stochastic model of the combined OASDI trust funds. Stochastic modeling is an important new tool for Social Security policy analysis and offers the promise of valuable new insights into the financial status of the OASDI trust funds and the effects of policy changes. The results presented in this article demonstrate that several stochastic models deliver broadly consistent results even though they use very different approaches and assumptions. However, they also show that the variation in trust fund outcomes differs as the approach and assumptions are varied. Which approach and assumptions are best suited for Social Security policy analysis remains an open question. Further research is needed before the promise of stochastic modeling is fully realized. For example, neither parameter uncertainty nor variability in ultimate assumption values is recognized explicitly in the analyses. Despite this caveat, stochastic modeling results are already shedding new light on the range and distribution of trust fund outcomes that might occur in the future.     

The role of behavioral economics and behavioral decision making in Americans' retirement savings decisions

Traditional economic theory posits that people make decisions by maximizing a utility function in which all of the relevant constraints and preferences are included and weighed appropriately. Behavioral economists and decision-making researchers, however, are interested in how people make decisions in the face of incomplete information, limited cognitive resources, and decision biases. Empirical findings in the areas of behavioral economics and judgment and decision making (JDM) demonstrate departures from the notion that man is economically rational, illustrating instead that people often act in ways that are economically suboptimal. This article outlines findings from the JDM and behavioral-economics literatures that highlight the many behavioral impediments to saving that individuals may encounter on their way to financial security. I discuss how behavioral and psychological issues, such as self-control, emotions, and choice architecture can help policymakers understand what factors, aside from purely economic ones, may affect individuals' savings behavior.     

Identities, Interests, and Imports

There is increasing attention to the mass public in the politics of trade debate, yet we still know little about how Americans formulate opinion on trade. Scholars are puzzled by the ineffectiveness of traditional dispositional beliefs to account for trade policy judgment, while an emerging economic self-interest perspective contends that opinion on trade is based on material concerns. This article demonstrates how symbolic predispositions provide critical information shortcuts for Americans on trade in which the relationship between trade policy and economic self-interest may be unclear. Symbolic politics theory explains how citizens can rely on accessible symbolic predispositions, including conceptions of national identity, in an unfamiliar and evolving trade policy environment often subject to multiple and conflicting cues, limited political information, and changing economic circumstances.     

Projecting immigrant earnings: the significance of country of origin

This article asks whether information about immigrants beyond their age, education, and years since migration can be productively used to project their earnings. Although many factors could affect immigrant earnings, what is most useful for Social Security modelling purposes is relevant information that is readily available on a continuous basis. Country of origin is a good candidate, as it is regularly and readily available from several administrative and survey data sources. In this article, microdata samples from the 1960-90 censuses are used to examine the relationship between country of origin and the earnings of immigrants. By following cohorts of immigrants over 10-year intervals, we learn how country of origin affects the initial earnings of immigrants and how the relationship between country of origin and immigrant earnings changes as immigrants continue to live in the United States. The article also presents theoretical insights and empirical evidence about the underlying causes of the link between country of origin and immigrant earnings.     

新型农村社会养老保险政策评估——基于土地流转制度背景下的研究

面对人口老龄化加剧、劳动力乡城流动、土地流转加速、土地养老功能弱化、农村养老需求增长的严峻局势和新农保试点扩面迅速推进的整体性战略规划,以公共政策评估和政策外部性理论为基础,从政策执行主体、政策服务对象的双重视角评估土地流转制度背景下新型农村社会养老保险政策执行状况和实施效果,通过对东、中、西部新农保试点地区的实态调查,分别获取基层政府工作人员、新农保经办机构人员、农村常住居民三类群体共2779份有效问卷,综合运用描述性统计和通径分析方法,进一步探寻改善政策效果的有效路径。研究结果表明:政府一定程度存在职能缺位、越位,立法、财政、监管责任缺失等问题,而广大农民未能将土地流转潜在养老保障功能与新农保统筹考量,使政策难以达到预期目标,可通过发挥政府主导作用、增强农民土地流转意识、提升经办机构服务能力、有效整合养老政策等具体对策,进一步促进土地流转、提高新农保参保意愿、改善政策执行与实施效果。     

Deliberative Democracy and Social Choice

The paper contrasts the liberal conception of democracy as the aggregation of individual preferences with the deliberative conception of democracy as a process of open discussion leading to an agreed judgement on policy. Social choice theory has identified problems - the arbitrariness of decision rules, vulnerability to strategic voting - which are often held to undermine democratic ideals. Contrary to common opinion, I argue that deliberative democracy is less vulnerable to these difficulties than liberal democracy. The process of discussion tends to produce sets of policy preferences that are 'single peaked'; and within a deliberative setting it may be possible to vary the decision rule according to the nature of the issue to be decided.     

Inside the Autonomous State: Programmatic Elites in the Reform of French Health Policy

This article combines the methods of institutionalist analysis and the sociology of elites to look inside the black box of the French state. We identify key groups of policymakers in the social policy sector and track both their policy preferences and the results of their efforts from the mid‐1980s through the late 1990s. Our conclusion is that budgetary and ideological challenges to existing policies led to the consolidation within the Ministry of Social Affairs of what we label a “programmatic elite,” whose influence derived less from the positions held by its members than from the coherence and applicability of its state‐centered policy model. The competition for legitimate authority between such programmatic elites, we conclude, is an important but often overlooked endogenous source of policy change in situations of institutional stability.     

“My forest, my kingdom”—Self-referentiality as a strategy in the case of small forest owners coping with government regulations

Social research that informs the implementation of natural resource policies is frequently driven by the logic of the policy system itself. A prevailing concern with achieving policy outcomes can lead, however, to lack of attention to equally important aspects, for example the challenges the policy instruments present to those they are targeting and the consequences this might have for government–citizen relationships. To help guide research into these issues we have developed a situational–interactional approach to interpretive policy analysis that seeks to examine the processes involved when people collectively make sense of government instruments. The theoretical basis is provided to a large extent by Luhmann’s theory of self-referential social systems. In addition, we operationalise the concepts of interactional framing and resemiotisation to capture the active work of the citizens in sense-making processes. We then apply our situational–interactional analysis to small-scale forest ownership in Flanders. Analysis of data from focus groups with forest owners reveals how interactions build on each other in the co-development of particular strategies to cope with government intervention. Finally, we discuss two future directions for research. First, the forest owners find themselves in an inescapable relationship with the government, and feel their autonomy is threatened. Government intervention, therefore, will almost necessarily lead to resistance. Second, forest groups enhance compatibility between the government system and the forest owners, but rather than narrowing the gap between the two worlds they tend to emphasise it.     

Do parties respond? How electoral context influences party responsiveness

How responsive are political parties to the issue priorities of voters? While there are numerous studies that examine policy position congruence between parties and voters or government responsiveness, we know little about the extent to which parties adjust their policy priorities to the issue concerns of voters. Following saliency and issue ownership theory, we argue that political parties listen to their voters by emphasizing policy issues in their election manifestos that have been prioritized by citizens. However, in line with second-order election theory, we expect that issue responsiveness varies with the electoral context. To test our theoretical expectations, we generated a novel dataset that combines data on issue attention of political parties from the Comparative Manifesto and the Euromanifesto projects with data on policy priorities of voters from the European Election Studies, the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and various national election studies. We empirically test our theoretical claims based on a comprehensive analysis of 104 parties from 17 countries competing in 84 national and European elections from 1986 to 2011. Our findings have important implications for political representation in Europe.