POLICING CRIME AND DISORDER HOT SPOTS: A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL*

Dealing with physical and social disorder to prevent serious crime has become a central strategy for policing. This study evaluates the effects of policing disorder, within a problem‐oriented policing framework, at crime and disorder hot spots in Lowell, Massachusetts. Thirty‐four hot spots were matched into 17 pairs, and one member of each pair was allocated to treatment conditions in a randomized block field experiment. The officers engaged “shallow” problem solving and implemented a strategy that more closely resembled a general policing disorder strategy rather than carefully designed problem‐oriented policing responses. Nevertheless, the impact evaluation revealed significant reductions in crime and disorder calls for service, and systematic observations of social and physical disorder at the treatment places relative to the control places uncovered no evidence of significant crime displacement. A mediation analysis of the isolated and exhaustive causal mechanisms that comprised the strategy revealed that the strongest crime‐prevention gains were generated by situational prevention strategies rather than by misdemeanor arrests or social service strategies.     

CORPORATE SELF‐POLICING AND THE ENVIRONMENT*

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Self‐Policing Policy (more commonly referred to as the Audit Policy) waives or reduces penalties when regulated entities voluntarily discover, disclose, and correct environmental violations. This study draws upon a rational choice model of corporate crime to determine if traditional regulatory efforts such as inspections and enforcement actions are associated with the odds of disclosing an environmental violation under the Audit Policy. A case control design is used to compare companies that self‐police to companies that do not self‐police. The event group consists of all 551 companies that disclosed at least one environmental violation under the Audit Policy between October 1, 1998 and September 30, 2000. The control group consists of a simple random sample of 551 companies that did not use the Audit Policy but were discovered to have violated at least one environmental law during the same time period as the event group. There is no evidence that inspections and enforcement increase Audit Policy use. However, the results do suggest, first, that the Audit Policy is more likely to be used by large companies than by small companies and, second, that it is likely to be used for reporting violations as opposed to more serious emissions or permit violations. In terms of public policy these findings suggest that regulatory agencies such as the EPA can do relatively little to increase the self‐policing of environmental violations.     

DOES CRIME JUST MOVE AROUND THE CORNER? A CONTROLLED STUDY OF SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF CRIME CONTROL BENEFITS*

Recent studies point to the potential theoretical and practical benefits of focusing police resources on crime hot spots. However, many scholars have noted that such approaches risk displacing crime or disorder to other places where programs are not in place. Although much attention has been paid to the idea of displacement, methodological problems associated with measuring it have often been overlooked. We try to fill these gaps in measurement and understanding of displacement and the related phenomenon of diffusion of crime control benefits. Our main focus is on immediate spatial displacement or diffusion of crime to areas near the targeted sites of an intervention. Do focused crime prevention efforts at places simply result in a movement of offenders to areas nearby targeted sites—“do they simply move crime around the corner”? Or, conversely, will a crime prevention effort focusing on specific places lead to improvement in areas nearby—what has come to be termed a diffusion of crime control benefits? Our data are drawn from a controlled study of displacement and diffusion in Jersey City, New Jersey. Two sites with substantial street‐level crime and disorder were targeted and carefully monitored during an experimental period. Two neighboring areas were selected as “catchment areas” from which to assess immediate spatial displacement or diffusion. Intensive police interventions were applied to each target site but not to the catchment areas. More than 6,000 20‐minute social observations were conducted in the target and catchment areas. They were supplemented by interviews and ethnographic field observations. Our findings indicate that, at least for crime markets involving drugs and prostitution, crime does not simply move around the corner. Indeed, this study supports the position that the most likely outcome of such focused crime prevention efforts is a diffusion of crime control benefits to nearby areas.     

THE PHILADELPHIA FOOT PATROL EXPERIMENT: A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL OF POLICE PATROL EFFECTIVENESS IN VIOLENT CRIME HOTSPOTS*

Originating with the Newark, NJ, foot patrol experiment, research has found police foot patrols improve community perception of the police and reduce fear of crime, but they are generally unable to reduce the incidence of crime. Previous tests of foot patrol have, however, suffered from statistical and measurement issues and have not fully explored the potential dynamics of deterrence within microspatial settings. In this article, we report on the efforts of more than 200 foot patrol officers during the summer of 2009 in Philadelphia. Geographic information systems (GIS) analysis was the basis for a randomized controlled trial of police effectiveness across 60 violent crime hotspots. The results identified a significant reduction in the level of treatment area violent crime after 12 weeks. A linear regression model with separate slopes fitted for treatment and control groups clarified the relationship even more. Even after accounting for natural regression to the mean, target areas in the top 40 percent on pretreatment violent crime counts had significantly less violent crime during the operational period. Target areas outperformed the control sites by 23 percent, resulting in a total net effect (once displacement was considered) of 53 violent crimes prevented. The results suggest that targeted foot patrols in violent crime hotspots can significantly reduce violent crime levels as long as a threshold level of violence exists initially. The findings contribute to a growing body of evidence on the contribution of hotspots and place‐based policing to the reduction of crime, and especially violent crime, which is a significant public health threat in the United States. We suggest that intensive foot patrol efforts in violent hotspots may achieve deterrence at a microspatial level, primarily by increasing the certainty of disruption, apprehension, and arrest. The theoretical and practical implications for violence reduction are discussed.     

TRAJECTORIES OF CRIME AT PLACES: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF STREET SEGMENTS IN THE CITY OF SEATTLE*

Studies of crime at micro places have generally relied on cross‐sectional data and reported the distributions of crime statistics over short periods of time. In this paper we use official crime data to examine the distribution of crime at street segments in Seattle, Washington, over a 14‐year period. We go beyond prior research in two ways. First, we view crime trends at places over a much longer period than other studies that have examined micro places. Second, we use group‐based trajectory analysis to uncover distinctive developmental trends in our data. Our findings support the view that micro places generally have stable concentrations of crime events over time. However, we also find that a relatively small proportion of places belong to groups with steeply rising or declining crime trajectories and that these places are primarily responsible for overall city trends in crime. These findings are particularly important given the more general decline in crime rates observed in Seattle and many other American cities in the 1990s. Our study suggests that the crime drop can be understood not as a general process that occurred across the city landscape but one that was generated in a relatively small group of micro places with strong declining crime trajectories over time.     

SOCIAL CONCERN AND CRIME: MOVING BEYOND THE ASSUMPTION OF SIMPLE SELF‐INTEREST

Most leading crime theories and crime‐control policies are based on the assumption that people are self‐interested. But recent work in a variety of fields has challenged this assumption, suggesting that people are both self‐interested and socially concerned. Social concern involves biologically based inclinations that sometimes lead people to give more consideration to others than to their own interests. These inclinations include caring about others, forming close ties to and cooperating with others, following certain moral intuitions, and conforming. This article describes the nature of and evidence for social concern, as well as the ways in which social factors shape social concern. The article then presents a theory of social concern and crime. Social concern has direct, indirect, mediating, and conditioning effects on crime. Although social concern generally reduces the likelihood of crime, it has little effect on or increases crime under certain conditions.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF SELF‐CONTROL: EXAMINING SELF‐CONTROL THEORY'S STABILITY THESIS*

Research on self‐control theory consistently supports its central prediction that low self‐control significantly affects crime. The theory includes other predictions, however, that have received far less scrutiny. Among these is the argument that self‐control is developed early in childhood and that individual differences emerging then persist over time. The purpose of this study is to provide a rigorous test of the stability thesis. First, we examine the extent of stability and change in self‐control for a national sample of U.S. children age 7 to age 15. Second, we consider whether parenting continues to affect self‐control during adolescence—a period after the point at which self‐control differences should be fixed. The analysis revealed strong absolute and relative stability of self‐control for more than 80 percent of the sample, and this stability emerged in large part as early as age 7. Contradicting the theory was a smaller portion of respondents (roughly 16 percent) who experienced substantial absolute and relative changes in self‐control even after the age of 10. Moreover, parental socialization continued to affect self‐control during adolescence, even after accounting for both prior self‐control and exposure to parental socialization.     

TARGETED ENFORCEMENT AND ADVERSE SYSTEM SIDE EFFECTS: THE GENERATION OF FUGITIVES IN PHILADELPHIA*

Research on targeted enforcement in high‐crime places has focused on direct crime‐reduction impacts, possible displacement of crime, and more recently, diffusion of benefits to adjacent areas. Studies have ignored other unanticipated negative effects that a place‐oriented enforcement intervention may have on the justice system overall. Using the generation of fugitive defendants as one possible example of an important system side effect, this study proposes hypotheses relating to adverse, generalized, system side effects of a place‐ and crime‐focused intervention, and it tests for target area and targeted crime‐type effects, nontarget area and nontargeted crime‐type effects, and overall system effects. The analysis employs a multiple interrupted time‐series design [auto‐regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)] to test the impact of one widely publicized, geographically targeted drug‐enforcement strategy in Philadelphia (Operation Sunrise, formally launched in June 1998) on the incidence of bench warrants as a measure of fugitives (weekly aggregate bench warrants series for the period January 1994–May 2005; N= 590 observations). The findings appear to support all hypotheses as they relate to the example of the generation of fugitives, and suggest a generalized system adverse side effect from the circumscribed place‐ and crime‐focused intervention. The implications of the findings for both research and policy relating to targeted enforcement interventions are discussed.     

ON THE RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY OF SELF‐REPORTED ILLEGAL EARNINGS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE STUDY OF CRIMINAL ACHIEVEMENT*

The study of the monetary returns to criminal activity is a central component in many emerging areas of criminology, including rational choice and offender decision‐making, desistance, and criminal achievement. Scholars have been increasingly captivated with specification of the earnings function and with examining how variations in illegal earnings predict important outcomes such as persistence in offending. The potential utility of findings in related empirical studies hinges on the quality of the key measure, self‐reported illegal earnings. Yet to date scant attention has been paid by researchers to the measurement properties of this metric. We analyze self‐reported illegal earnings generated from a variety of instrumental crimes by using data from the Pathways to Desistance Study (n = 585) and the National Supported Work Project (n = 1,509), which are two longitudinal data sets of active offenders separated by more than 30 years. Findings based on analyses both within and between data sets reveal support for the internal consistency reliability and criterion validity of self‐reported illegal earnings. Moreover, the results reveal premiums in terms of higher earnings associated with different crime types, which are persistent both over time and across data sets. Implications and future directions for advancing the theoretical study of criminal achievement are also discussed.     

DETERRENCE AND MORAL PERSUASION EFFECTS ON CORPORATE TAX COMPLIANCE: FINDINGS FROM A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL*

Previous studies on tax compliance have focused primarily on the tax‐reporting behavior of individuals. This study reports results from a randomized field test of the effects of deterrence and moral persuasion on the tax‐reporting behavior of 4,395 corporations in Israel. Two experimental groups received tax letters, one conveying a deterrent message and the other a moral persuasion message. Three types of measures are used to evaluate compliance based on the magnitude of the difference‐in‐differences of means in 1) gross sales values reported to the authority, 2) tax dollars paid to the authority, and 3) tax deductions. Overall, both deterrence and moral persuasion approaches do not produce statistically significant greater compliance compared with control conditions. These results do not support the ability of a policy of sending tax letters to increase substantively the reporting of true tax liability or tax payments by corporations. However, these results also show that moral persuasion can be counterproductive: Corporations in this experimental group show an increase rather than a decrease in tax deductions, which translates into loss of state revenues. The implications for theory, research, and tax policy are discussed.     

CRIMINAL GROUP EMBEDDEDNESS AND THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF ARRESTING A GANG'S LEADER: A COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY

Although law enforcement agencies arrest criminal group leaders to dismantle organized crime, few studies have assessed whether such interventions produce adverse effects. Through a mixed‐method comparative case study of the Latin Kings and 22 Boys street gangs in Chicago, this article examines the consequences of arresting a gang's leader. Using violent crime data, I show that a spike in violent crime took place in the first month after the arrest of the 22 Boys gang leader. In contrast, the arrest of the Latin Kings gang leader produced no change in violent crime. Using several qualitative data sources, I show that the arrest of the 22 Boys gang leader temporarily led to the gang's withdrawal from its territory, which spurred violent aggression from rival gangs in adjacent territories. In contrast, the Latin Kings gang continued its operations because the gang's prison leaders quickly appointed new leadership. The results suggest that criminal group embeddedness (or the social relations between criminal groups) can contribute to adverse effects in interventions targeting gang or other criminal group leaders.     

BEYOND THE BELL CURVE: COMMUNITY DISADVANTAGE AND THE EXPLANATION OF BLACK‐WHITE DIFFERENCES IN ADOLESCENT VIOLENCE*

Disproportionate involvement in violent behavior among African American, versus white, adolescents is a major arena of debate in the social sciences. The individual difference approach draws attention to verbal ability as an explanation of black‐white differences in violence. Sociological theories stress variation in community and family socioeconomic disadvantage. We contrast these causal images of racial differences in serious violence using the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health and contextual modeling. Results indicate that verbal ability has an indirect effect on violence through school achievement, but does not account for the greater involvement in violence among black adolescents. The analysis is most consistent with a sociological model that views the race‐violence link as a spurious outcome of community context.     

A LONGITUDINAL TEST OF THE EFFECTS OF PARENTING AND THE STABILITY OF SELF‐CONTROL: NEGATIVE EVIDENCE FOR THE GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME*

This study investigates two core propositions of Gottfredson and Hirschi's (1990) general theory of crime. Using longitudinal data collected on approximately 750 African American children and their primary caregivers, we first examine whether self‐control fully mediates the effect of parenting on delinquency. Consistent with the general theory, we find that low self‐control is positively associated with involvement in delinquency. Counter to Gottfredson and Hirschi's proposition, we find that self‐control only partially attenuates the negative effect of parental efficacy on delinquency. Next, we assess the theory's hypothesis that between‐individual levels of self‐control are stable. Finding substantial instability in self‐control across the two waves, we explore whether social factors can explicate these changes in self‐control. The four social relationships we incorporate (improvements in parenting, attachment to teachers, association with pro‐social peers, and association with deviant peers) explain a substantial portion of the changes in self‐control. We then discuss the implications of these findings for the general theory of crime.     

CIVIC COMMUNITY IN THE HINTERLAND: TOWARD A THEORY OF RURAL SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND VIOLENCE*

Drawing on the civic community literature, this article explicates a theoretical model to explain variation in rates of violence across rural communities. It is hypothesized that rural communities with a stable population base that is locally invested, a vibrant participatory civic culture with a well‐developed noneconomic institutional base, and a robust economically independent middle class will have lower rates of violent crime. Results from the analysis of data for more than 1,000 rural counties reveal that the 11 variables used to operationalize the theory are empirically distinguishable from indicators of resource disadvantage and form three well‐defined indices: a residential stability/local investment factor, a local capitalism/independent middle class factor, and a civic engagement factor. Negative binomial regression models confirm that violent crime rates are generally much lower in communities that score high on these dimensions. Implications of these findings for future macrolevel criminological research are discussed.     

THE PREVENTIVE EFFECTS OF ARREST ON INTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE: RESEARCH,POLICY AND THEORY*

Research Summary: This research addresses the limitations of prior analyses and reviews of five experiments testing for the specific deterrent effect of arrest on intimate partner violence by applying to individual level data consistent eligibility criteria, common independent and outcome measures, and appropriate statistical tests. Based on 4,032 cases involving adult males who assaulted their female intimate partners, multivariate regression analyses show consistent but modest reductions in subsequent offenses targeting the original victim that is attributable to arresting the suspect. Although the reductions attributable to arrest are similar across all five studies, other factors, such as the suspect's prior arrest record, are stronger predictors of subsequent offenses. The effect of arrest is also modest compared with the general decline in offenses toward the same victim during the follow‐up period. Policy Implications: These results lend limited support for policies favoring arrest over informal police responses to intimate partner violence. However, the analyses also show that despite police intervention, a minority of suspects repeatedly victimize their partners and that factors other than formal sanctions play larger roles in explaining the cessation or continuation of aggressive behavior between intimates. These findings suggest that new policies replacing or enhancing arrest that target potential repeat offenders might produce larger reductions in intimate partner violence.     

WEAPON EFFECTS AND INDIVIDUAL INTENT TO DO HARM: INFLUENCES ON THE ESCALATION OF VIOLENCE*

In order to assess the roles of weapons and offender intentions in the outcomes of potentially violent events, we analyze more than 2,000 incidents described by offenders. We advance the study of weapons effects through a within‐person analysis that lets us control for all time‐stable characteristics of the offenders. Thus, we address the concern that relationships between type of weapon and incident outcome may be spurious because individuals with a greater propensity to do harm are more likely to use guns. Findings indicate that weapons have independent effects that differ across the stages of an event.     

DRIVING WHILE BLACK: EFFECTS OF RACE,ETHNICITY, AND GENDER ON CITIZEN SELF‐REPORTS OF TRAFFIC STOPS AND POLICE ACTIONS*

Are African‐American men, compared with white men, more likely to report being stopped by police for traffic law violations? Are African‐American men and Hispanic drivers less likely to report that police had a legitimate reason for the stop and less likely to report that police acted properly? This study answers these questions using citizen self‐reports of their traffic stop encounters with the police. Net of other important explanatory variables, the data indicate that police make traffic stops for Driving While Black and male. In addition, African‐American and Hispanic drivers are less likely to report that police had a legitimate reason for the stop and are less likely to report that police acted properly. The study also discusses the validity of citizen self‐report data and outlines an agenda for future research.     

THE IMPACT OF ORDER‐MAINTENANCE POLICING ON NEW YORK CITY HOMICIDE AND ROBBERY RATES: 1988‐2001*

Local officials and national observers have attributed the New York City drop in violent crime during the 1990s to the aggressive enforcement of public order, but relevant research is limited and yields contrasting conclusions regarding the effects of order‐maintenance policing (OMP) on violent crime trends in New York City. The current study investigates the effects of order‐maintenance arrests on precinct‐level robbery and homicide trends in New York City with more reliable crime and arrest data, longer time series, and more extensive controls for other influences than used in prior research. We find statistically significant but small crime‐reduction effects of OMP and conclude that the impact of aggressive order enforcement on the reduction in homicide and robbery rates in New York City during the 1990s was modest at best.     

CLOSE‐UPS AND THE SCALE OF ECOLOGY: LAND USES AND THE GEOGRAPHY OF SOCIAL CONTEXT AND CRIME

Whereas one line of recent neighborhood research has placed an emphasis on zooming into smaller units of analysis such as street blocks, another line of research has suggested that even the meso‐area of neighborhoods is too narrow and that the area surrounding the neighborhood is also important. Thus, there is a need to examine the scale at which the social ecology impacts crime. We use data from seven cities from around the year 2000 to test our research questions using multilevel negative binomial regression models (N = 73,010 blocks and 8,231 block groups). Our results suggest that although many neighborhood factors seem to operate on the microscale of blocks, others seem to have a much broader impact. In addition, we find that racially and ethnically homogenous blocks within heterogeneous block groups have the most crime. Our findings also show the strongest results for a multitude of land‐use measures and that these measures sharpen some of the associations from social characteristics. Thus, we find that accounting for multiple scales simultaneously is important in ecological studies of crime.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SELF‐CONTROL AND LANGUAGE: EVIDENCE OF A SHARED ETIOLOGICAL PATHWAY*

Converging lines of research suggest that self‐control and language may be inextricably linked. No empirical research has ever examined this proposition, however. We address this gap in the literature by analyzing a sample of twin pairs from a nationally representative data set of children. The results revealed three broad findings. First, diminished language skills were predictive of low self‐control both cross‐sectionally and longitudinally. Second, the covariation between language and self‐control was linked to both genetic and environmental factors. Third, after controlling for genetic influences on self‐control, language skills were predictive of variation in individual levels of self‐control. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.