Central Asian Regional Security Complex: The Impact of Russian and US Policies

This paper aims to reveal the impact made by the Russian and US policies on the Central Asian regional security complex (RSC) in the 1990s and 2000s. It traces the evolution of post-Soviet Central Asia from a proto-complex to a fully fledged RSC, analysing major security trends and discovering the consolidation of the RSC's boundary, polarity and social construction. The analysis has not shown much divergence in the way US and Russian policies have influenced the Central Asian RSC. It is argued that Moscow and Washington have made a significant impact on the consolidation of the RSC's boundaries, with the effects of US and Russian policies on its polarity and social construction being rather limited.     

US Policy in Central Asia and Regional Security

The article focuses on American approaches to the problems of regional security and stability in post-Soviet Central Asia since the early 1990s. It discusses the priorities of US policies in Central Asia under the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations and argues that the advancement of US interests in Central Asia requires a coherence between the region-wide and the country-level tiers of American policies. Furthermore, it is argued that since the mid-1990s the development of bilateral relations between Washington and Central Asian countries has not been accompanied by a region-wide policy aimed at reducing security risks in Central Asia. The paper also discusses implications of US activism in Central Asia for long-term regional stability.     

Social contention,authoritarian resilience,and political change

This article takes stock of recent advances in the field of comparative authoritarianism. The four books reviewed shed light on the effects of social activism, claim-making and social protests on authoritarian resilience. Taken as a whole, they intervene in the scholarly debates that examine the rise of collective, often contentious action under authoritarian rule. In so doing they account both for how states tolerate or even encourage collective action and the extent to which, in turn, protests by distinct social groups re-shape the political system. As authoritarian institutions, democratic-looking or otherwise, have received considerable attention of late, this article calls for greater attention to the economic and ideational dimensions of authoritarianism and, more generally, a broader research agenda.     

从博弈到共赢：中印在中亚的竞争与合作

中亚以其独特的战略地位吸引了各大国的关注。中国和印度作为亚洲两个崛起中的大国，又是中亚的两个邻国，地缘和能源因素使两国与中亚联系在一起。本文阐述了中印两国在中亚的战略和能源博弈，并进一步分析了两国在这一地区竞争的可能性和合作的必要性，指出中印合作无论对两国的国家利益还是中亚的发展和稳定都是最佳的抉择。     

Combating Terrorism in Central Asia: Explaining Differences in States' Responses to Terror

This work examines differences in the level of violence of counterterrorism measures adopted by Central Asian states. Why do some Central Asian governments opt for wanton repression in the name of the struggle with terrorism, while others adopt less severe methods of control and prevention? To answer this question, this study draws on a synthesis of rationalist and constructivist explanations. Like rationalists, it posits that the magnitude of terrorism and states' material capabilities affect governments' responses to terrorism. Following constructivists, the study stresses the impact of ideas about the nature of terrorist threats and views on the appropriateness of the use of force on the counterterrorism policies of Central Asian states.     

关于中日钓鱼群岛争端的几点认识

二战后,中日钓鱼群岛争端分为两个阶段,即从行动对舆论到行动对行动、法律对法律,每个阶段都与能源关系密切。一方面,钓鱼群岛争端折射出在历史上中日之间存在着一条海洋不稳定线,但现实正赋予它以新的内涵。另一方面,以钓鱼群岛为核心,以中日关系为主轴,以美台参与为互动因素构成了复杂的东北亚政治力学图谱。     

China, Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: blessing or curse for new regionalism in Central Asia?

This paper discusses China and Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Organisation (SCO), a Eurasian regional organisation established in 2001 and consisting of China, Russia and the four Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. I argue that while the two largest members of the SCO are essential to the organisation, they at the same time prevent the SCO from becoming a more comprehensive regional organisation. Moreover, the actions and presence of China and Russia in Central Asia, together with inherently inauspicious characteristics of the region when compared to the post-Cold War new regionalist thinking, hinder the overall regionalisation in the area. However, regionalisation, hopefully in time leading to greater regional cooperation in Central Asia, is very much in the interests of Europe and the European Union (EU) as a potential peaceful way forward in the development of the region.     

The social construction of international institutions: the case of ASEAN + 3

Slowly but steadily, a new international institution is emergingin East Asia: the ASEAN + 3 forum, comprising the ten membersof the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus China,Japan and South Korea. ASEAN + 3 is an interesting case of institution-buildingin that it is constructed around the core of an already existinginstitution, ASEAN, which was founded in 1967. The followinganalysis of this multilateral forum seeks to answer two theoreticalquestions: (i) Why do states cooperate? (ii) What happens totheir interests and identities once they communicate with eachother? In view of this task, I will offer a social constructivistvariant of international relations theory to explain the instigationof the process on the one hand and the processual constructionof the institution on the other. The underlying belief is thatnot only do states influence the development of internationalinstitutions, but that institutions can also exert influenceon foreign policy behaviour. The approach introduced here acknowledges that internationalreality is a social construction driven by collective understandingsemerging from social interaction. This approach to the explanationof the initiation and the subsequent development of an institutionrecognizes the existence of both material and normative groundsof foreign policy action. It differs from neoliberal institutionalismbecause in this theory as well as in realism collective interestis assumed as pre-given and hence exogenous to social interaction.In contrast, we suppose that social interaction ultimately doeshave transformative effects on interests and identity, becausecontinuous cooperation is likely to influence intersubjectivemeanings. This method of analysis corresponds with Moravscik'stripartite analysis of integration decisions: while the initialphase refers to the formation of state preferences, the secondand third involve the dynamic aspect of ‘constructing’international institutions: the outcomes of interstate bargainingand the subsequent choice of the institutional design.     

Woodrow Wilson’s Neutrality,the Freedom of the Seas,and the Myth of the “Civil War Precedents”

This analysis shows the importance of a problem of maritime law in an on-going debate between two interpretations of Wilsonian neutrality that have competed in various guises since the end of the First World War: can British blockade actions in that war be justified by American Civil War precedents? It proves that reliance on the “Civil War precedents” to justify Britain’s blockade measures was disingenuous from the beginning. British diplomats first used it in October 1914, and Woodrow Wilson embraced it to defend his mild response to British violations of neutral rights to incensed American citizens despite continuous protests from the State Department. Whilst all politicians involved knew the comparison was wrong, historians have embraced it as a justification of Britain’s illegal blockade ever since Arthur S. Link claimed it as the key to understanding Wilson’s neutrality policy.     

欧盟对中亚战略浅析

2007年,欧盟出台了《中亚战略文件》,确立了欧盟与中亚5国之间的战略伙伴关系,把欧盟对中亚战略作为欧盟总体外交、全球战略、大邻国战略的重要组成部分。欧盟在政治、经济、安全和文化方面与中亚国家进行全面合作。边界安全、能源管线建设以及欧亚交通大通道的建设是欧盟与中亚国家合作的主要领域。欧盟对中亚战略实施的成功与否对欧盟作为全球行为体的地位和作用将是一个重要的衡量指标和考验。     

中国与中亚国家共建数字丝绸之路:基础、挑战与路径

中国与中亚国家共建数字丝绸之路对“一带一路”建设和提升中亚国家现代化发展水平意义重大。中亚国家数字经济发展潜力巨大,各国纷纷出台数字经济发展战略,电子商务发展方兴未艾,电子政务能力不断提升,但各国数字经济发展差距较大。中国与中亚国家共建数字丝绸之路有着良好的基础,双方已建立起较为稳定持久的互信关系,都提出了数字经济发展战略,已有多层次合作机制,中亚国家对双方合作的内在动力较强。但双方合作也面临不少挑战,中亚国家数字基础设施建设较为薄弱、数字人才紧缺,网络安全和地缘政治风险亦不断增加。中国和中亚国家可从数字基础设施建设、数字治理、电子商务、数字人才培养等路径入手展开合作,因国施策,共建数字丝绸之路。     

The OSCE's post-September 11 agenda,and Central Asia

With an enlarged membership and a wide agenda including politico-security matters, economic and environmental issues and human aspects, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) aims at promoting stability and democratisation in its area, fostering good governance. The September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001 have prompted the organisation to reinforce its commitments with regard to the prevention of and combat against terrorism, as a primary goal in the pursuit of its main tasks of conflict prevention and management, and post-conflict rehabilitation. The institutional response of the OSCE has been translating its effort to address the new concerns while promoting its founding principles, both at headquarters and in the field. The extent to which the organisation's institutions and commitments are adequate to respond to the new challenges and promote good governance in the OSCE area are analysed. Are the OSCE principles, agreed commitments and elaborated post-September 11 agenda adequate to meet the many uncertainties and to build cooperation and security in the OSCE space? Is the OSCE prepared to respond effectively to the current challenges particularly with regard to Central Asia? Which means and what actions might the organisation pursue in the context of its new agenda? By matching words with action OSCE's contribution to global governance in Central Asia is clarified through assessing its means, activities and adequacy to meet old and new challenges.     

Choosing to Die: Suicide Bombing and Suicide Protest in South Asia

Scholars tend to attribute the use of suicide protest and suicide bombing to purely rational considerations. In contrast, I argue that conventional understandings of strategy are too narrow and must be expanded to include emotional motivations for political mobilization. “Complex” strategy directly engages both the calculative and emotive understandings of political action. I develop this theory through a comparison of suicide protests and suicide bombings in South Asia, focusing on the emotional content of this extreme tactic. Suicide protests illustrate the importance of pride, sympathy, fear, and shame in political mobilization. I explore the emotional character of suicide in protest through an investigation of two cases: the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka (LTTE) and the Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA) in India.     

Military Structure,Civil Disobedience,and Military Violence

In this article, I argue that factors inherent to the structure of a military organization and their relationship with the political leadership play a role in the organization's tendency to perpetrate violence against civilians during civil disobedience campaigns. To examine this hypothesis, I conducted a three-phased statistical analysis on a database containing 97 campaigns that took place between 1972 and 2012. In the first phase, I examined the relationship between military centric factors and violent crackdowns. In the second phase, I examined the relationship between military centric factors and mass killing. In the third stage, I examined the relationship between two specific types of discrimination in the military and mass killing. I found strong evidence supporting the hypothesis mentioned above. High-risk militaries that served a militarized regime, contained loosely regulated or indoctrinated paramilitaries, and discriminated against the protesting group, were much more likely to perpetrate violence against civilians during civil disobedience campaigns than low-risk militaries. The conclusions of this study suggest that further examination of the military's role in perpetrating violence against civilians during protests and conflict may provide some novel findings.     

Re‐evaluating US strategic priorities in the Caspian Region: balancing energy resource initiatives with terrorism containment

In the aftermath of September 11, US strategy has shifted in the Central Asian region from protecting the sovereignty of the southern post‐Soviet states to ensuring their stability in light of the dual impacts of energy development and the rising threat of Islamic terrorism. Although US–Russian cooperation has made strides, particularly concerning Russian acquiescence toward US and NATO military engagement in the region, geostrategic rivalry and conflicting economic goals have hindered a joint approach to initiatives regarding the region's energy development. While both agree on the goal of maximising Russian and Caspian gas and petroleum exports, US policy is increasingly prioritising Central Asian energy prosperity as a key factor in the region's ability to contain terrorism. Development of the region's energy resources has therefore become a critical US security concern. Yet, by failing to engage with Russia in a meaningful cooperation that could encourage Moscow to diversify its own energy export prospects, competition between the two powers is likely to reduce, rather than improve, the effectiveness of either in offering the Central Asian states the kind of support they need to strengthen their domestic profiles or withstand the incursion of terrorism.     

Discursive Emotional Appeals in Sustaining Violent Social Movements in Iraq, 2003–11

How are some rebel leaders able to sustain violent collective action but others not? Most theories focus on leaders' use of selective incentives and efforts to lower their transaction costs and raise those of the government. We argue that a leader's ability to arouse emotions of anger, humiliation, and fear is also critical. Foreign leaders and former exiles typically lack the legitimacy and understanding of local politics necessary to incite such emotions. We test this argument in three case studies in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. In this period, the Sadrist Trend sustained violent collective action and gained lasting political power, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq failed to maintain its influence, and al-Qaeda in Iraq first gained and then lost its ability to mobilize violence.     

International Socialization in Difficult Environments: The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Central Asia

This article explores the potential of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to be an agent of socialization in the five Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In drawing on both rationalist and constructivist approaches to international socialization it is argued that the organization's inability to provide tangible material and political incentives as well as Central Asia's indigenous culture and institutions impede successful socialization dynamics. Moreover, the power-oriented elites consider the bulk of the OSCE activities to be a threat to their grasp on power, not only making socialization almost impossible but also making OSCE–Central Asian cooperation increasingly difficult to sustain. Recommendations to increase the OSCE's influence in the region concentrate on a better understanding of the cost-benefit calculation of Central Asian governments as well as a more responsive attitude to traditional institutions in the OSCE's approach toward the region.     

俄罗斯与中亚国家安全合作机制分析

安全合作是俄罗斯与中亚国家关系的关键性领域,对中亚地区安全态势及发展趋势具有关键意义。俄罗斯与中亚国家借助双边及多边安全制度,构建了军事同盟体系,并形成了完备的组织机构和决策模式。俄罗斯与中亚在共同使用军事设施、军事技术合作、联合军事演习和军事人才培养等方面展开具体的安全合作。俄罗斯与中亚国家安全合作机制的有效性受到权力结构、合法性与国内政治等因素的制约,其未来有可能向更为紧密的方向发展,对中亚地区安全发挥着长期的主导性作用。     

Dead-Letter Regimes in the Post-Soviet Space: Strategies and Communication

ABSTRACT

This article explores why dead-letter regimes, sets of norms and institutions with low efficiency and few expectations of tangible output, have become an enduring feature of international politics in the post-Soviet space. It focuses on the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union, the two regional regimes promoted by Russia. The article analyzes their emergence and evolution, normative frameworks, performance and member states’ expectations. It argues that, while mostly failing as instruments of strategic action, these regimes have become conduits of communicative action and arenas enabling member states to enact specific international roles.     

中国中亚能源通道与中国能源安全

中国的改革开放带来国民经济的快速发展,同时也带来对能源,尤其是石油和天然气资源的巨大需求。中亚及其相邻的里海地区有着丰富的石油天然气资源。毗邻的地理位置为中国与中亚国家能源合作创造了得天独厚的条件。当前中国与中亚地区已经修建了多条石油和天然气管道。这些管道有助于保障中国能源供应,但也面临一系列新的问题和压力。中国中亚能源通道的未来前景广阔,但需要提前做好风险研判与科学规划。