美国会协防台湾吗?

本文介绍并分析了台湾民进党政府在新世纪的“军事安全战略” ;从理论的角度论述了台湾谋求独立的“军事安全战略”虽对和平统一前景造成了危害、但美国协防台湾的可信性在受到恐怖袭击后更加值得怀疑 ;作者认为台湾与大陆未来统一趋势不会改变。     

Will Japan go nuclear? Myth and reality

Predominant international relations theory holds that a state will stop at nothing to protect itself and survive in a basically anarchic international environment. Matake Kamiya confronts recent speculation that Japan is unlikely to be an exception to this rule. To convince others, he states, Japan must show specifically why the choice to remain nonnuclear serves its national interests, despite its latent capability to develop nuclear weapons. Kamiya is Assistant Professor of International Relations at the National Defense Academy of Japan; recently, he also served as Distinguished Research Fellow at the Centre for Strategic Studies in New Zealand.     

On systemic transition: Will China go capitalist?

Transition from nonviable central administrative command planning (socialism) should be toward a full market system (capitalism). The requirements of such transition include: removal of the communist party from monopoly power; patience, determination, explanation, persuasion, and fairness; introduction of new legal, statistical, and accounting infrastructures and procedures; market freedom; demonopolization; privatization; macroeconomic stabilization; and external liberalization of trade and payments. Since 1978 China has taken steps to move its economic system in the capitalist direction, while retaining the communist party’s hold on political power (reduced from totalitarian to authoritarian control) and expanding quasi-private property rights without, however, fully privatizing the large, capital-intensive, state-owned industrial sector. In this sense, unlike many of the countries of central and eastern Europe and Russia, China has deferred the solution of some of the fundamental and potentially highly disruptive reform problems to an indefinite future, a postponement which, despite significant temporal successes, carries with it serious dangers for the entire reform enterprise.     

How the East Asian Crisis Will Change International Relations

We may expect regional response to the tension and conflict in Asia begun by China in 2009 gradually to transform the international order in that region, where the United States has been the active great power. Today the United States is so overextended in commitments and so lacking in force structure (and political will) that she can no longer play that role. Nor, however, has China succeeded in her initial assumption that regional powers would defer to her vastly increased military power. Unless China finds a way to extricate herself, we may expect regional powers, each strengthening herself, to grow closer together as a group in which Tokyo plays an unaccustomed central role, both in diplomacy and arms supply, although in coordination with the United States. North Korea is also highly dangerous. The likely outcome is greater military strength generally, with South Korea and Japan nuclear powers.     

"上海五国":从元首会晤机制向全面合作机制转变

"上海五国"会晤机制开创于1996年4月,中、俄、哈、吉、塔五国元首在上海的会晤,几年来,该机制摸索出的新型国家关系可以概括为四句话:睦邻互信;平等互利;团结协作;共同发展.今年6月将在上海举行的第6次五国元首会晤,是"上海五国"机制发展史上新的里程碑.     

International Intervention and the People's Will: The Demoralization of Democracy in Cambodia

This article examines the deterioration in relations between two Cambodian opposition parties and the “international community” from whom they sought support during the 1998 Cambodian elections. It is suggested that the manipulation, by influential political actors, of internationally promoted political concepts such as “democracy,” “sovereignty,” and “the people's will” is problematic for mutual understanding between international and local political actors. In Cambodia in 1998, liberal views of the “people's will” as an amoral and neutral construct facilitating the delegation of authority were awkwardly but influentially conflated, by the election campaigning of the two parties, with a view of the “people's will” as a moral imperative to liberate the nation from alleged “traitors.” This caused widespread adherence, among the parties' followers, to views of the 1998 elections that were non-liberal and antidemocratic in a number of respects. When sharp differences in understandings of the political situation emerged between local and international actors, following the electoral defeat of those opposition party leaders, the fragile nature of a purported “partnership” between a self-appointed “international community” and the Cambodian people was exposed.     

Crime That Pays: The Global Spread of the Russian Mafia

Books reviewed in this article:
Robert I. Friedman, Red Mafia: How the Russian Mob Has Invaded America
Paul Klebnikov, Godfather of the Kremlin: Boris Berezovsky and the Looting of Russia
James O. Finckenauer and Elin J. Waring, Russian Mafia in America: Immigration, Culture, and Crime
Chrystia Freeland, Sale of the Century: Russia's Wild Ride from Communism to Capitalism
Jeffrey Robinson, The Merger: The Conglomeration of International Organized Crime