“伊斯兰国”突起及西亚北非恐怖活动的变化

"伊斯兰国"的突起,带动西亚北非地区恐怖活动在暴力活动、组织形式、活动范围等三个方面发生了重大变化,突破了历史上的恐怖活动,掀起了新一波地区恐怖浪潮。地区变局是这一波恐怖浪潮的基本原因,变局为该地区长期存在的恐怖势力提供了新的活动机遇,变局所激化的各种矛盾为恐怖势力提供了新的活动空间,变局中国际社会一些力量的不当政策诱发、助长了恐怖活动。地区恐怖活动的走势,取决于恐怖势力所积蓄的能量、国际反恐策略和地区变局的发展变化。恐怖势力将会长期影响该地区和全球安全。     

伊斯兰瓦哈比教派与中亚政局

近年来，伊斯兰教瓦哈比派势力在中亚迅猛发展。其恐怖的原教旨主义活动直接威胁着中亚地区的世俗政权，对中亚国家的稳定构成严重威胁，已引起中亚国家领导人的高度警惕。瓦哈比派势力在中亚的发展已不仅是一个教派问题，也是一个关系到中亚国家安全的政治问题。一瓦哈比...     

叙利亚局势及其未来走向

目前,叙利亚已成为"阿拉伯之春"政治动荡的"重灾区"之一。随着示威抗议活动与暴力冲突此伏彼起及伤亡人数不断增加,叙利亚巴沙尔政权的内忧外患日益严重。叙利亚之所以发生如此严重的危机,除"中东波"冲击的外力作用外,更主要的原因是其内部矛盾的长期积累和集中发酵。外部势力的干预在其中起到了推波助澜作用。一旦出现叙利亚内部分裂和西方军事干预等戏剧性变化,巴沙尔政权将面临倒台的危险。     

冷战时期美国在拉美地区的“楔子战略”

美国在拉美地区拥有重要的安全、经济和政治利益。冷战期间,为了限制苏联影响在该地区的扩大,美国不断采用经济援助、政权颠覆、军事征服等"楔子战略",试图阻止拉美国家与苏联接近甚至结盟,谋求联盟预阻目标或分化、削弱苏联在拉美已经形成的联盟关系。由于美国视拉美为"后院",对其战略价值定位较高,加之美国的战略资源投入较多、战略阻力较小,美国在拉美地区针对苏联势力扩张的楔子战略基本取得成效。同时,美国楔子战略的运用也严重地干涉了一些拉美国家的内政,增加了美国与拉美国家之间的矛盾。     

东南亚恐怖主义新态势及其影响与中国的应对

近年来，随着国际恐怖主义形势的变化，尤其是“伊斯兰国”遭受重创后的演变及发展，东南亚地区恐怖主义发展呈现出一些新的发展态势，东南亚首现城市大规模恐怖袭击事件，地区恐怖势力的跨国整合联动及域内外恐怖势力的合流、共振与滋生新的恐怖活动，地区部分国家的国内冲突加剧给予国际恐怖势力更多介入空间，回流恐怖分子引发系列问题以及网络恐怖主义威胁的上升等。东南亚恐怖主义新态势给东南亚地区的安全稳定带来威胁，也给中国尤其是西南边境省份的安全、稳定与发展带来严重威胁。在此背景下，中国需关注东南亚地区的恐怖主义新态势，进一步增强与东南亚国家的政治互信，凝聚反恐合作共识，加快构建与东南亚国家的反恐合作专门机制，增强中国在东南亚地区国际反恐合作中的作用，提升边境省份参与东南亚地区反恐合作的能力，加强对中国在东南亚地区的人员及投资等海外利益的保护，有效遏制东南亚恐怖主义发展及阻断国际恐怖势力经东南亚向中国渗透。     

试析车臣分离势力恐怖化的暴力文化因素

车臣分离势力的恐怖化有广义的暴力文化方面的深层原因：车臣民族的尚武传统有助于恐怖化的心理自然；伊斯兰极端思想是克服恐怖化的“道德自抑”障碍的精神武器；暴力化社会环境为恐怖化提供了组织便利。综之，暴力文化因素是车臣分离势力恐怖化的诱因和条件，而非其根源。     

对伊拉克战争后中东地区民族宗教问题的思考

美国发动的伊拉克战争对中东地区民族与宗教问题造成巨大冲击。战争的结果使该地区 各种力量对比进一步失衡,加速民族与宗教矛盾和冲突的发展,以及其极端势力和国际 恐怖势力的结合。伊拉克正成为宗教极端思潮和运动的新策源地。美国推行改造中东的 计划,将催化伊斯兰教世俗力量和极端势力的逆向发展,引发激烈冲撞。该地区民族和 宗教冲突将进入新的活跃期。防止大国插手,警惕民族自决原则的嬗变和滥用,对我国 反对民族分裂的斗争有重大现实意义。     

当前拉美形势及其存在的问题

当前拉美和加勒比地区的形势,从总体而言,政局基本稳定,经济继续增长,一体化进展迅速,多元外交活跃。但今年发生的秘鲁和厄瓜多尔边界冲突、墨西哥金融危机和一系列社会问题,严重威胁着拉美地区的和平与发展,拉美国家正积极行动,以防新的危机。 一、政局基本稳定 冷战后,拉美地区冲突减少,团结协作增强,民主政权进一步巩固,政局基本稳定。主要表现在:     

冷战结束后拉美恐怖主义探析

冷战结束后,拉美恐怖主义活动呈弱化趋势。拉美国家政治治理能力的欠缺,经济发展不平衡、贫富分化严重以及拉美一些国家之间缺乏有效的合作,是拉美恐怖主义产生和持续存在的原因。为更好地防范和打击恐怖主义,拉美国家采取了一系列措施:加强打击毒品和洗钱犯罪的力度;提升自身的反恐能力,在加强军事打击力度的同时,还加快了与反政府武装组织的和谈进程;增进彼此间以及与美国的沟通和合作,提高了反恐行动的跨国合作水平。2D10年以来,拉美地区的恐怖威胁持续下降,已成为全球七大区域中安全水平上升最明显的地区。总体而言,同世界其他地区相比,目前拉美和加勒比地区安全形势比较稳定,恐怖主义活动相对较少。然而长远来看,拉美国家需要采取更多措施,才能从根本上消除恐怖主义。     

试析普京政府怎样对付俄罗斯的恐怖主义活动

恐怖主义经过半个多世纪的蔓延，破坏性越来越大，原是恐怖活动“真空”地带的苏联东欧地区，目前恐怖暴力事件也不断发生，俄罗斯已成为新的恐怖活动热点，车臣恐怖势力的猖獗活动、国内魔鬼崇拜邪教的泛滥、高科技恐怖主义的危害都给俄罗斯的社会安全带来了极大的挑战。针对国际恐怖主义威胁度的增加，俄政府尤其是普京执政后的俄政府相继出台了一系列新举措，包括从民族凝聚力、拓击力度、军事科研、新闻媒介、外交渠道等方面着手出击，以对抗国际恐怖势力。     

Civilian self-defense militias in civil war

To mitigate the costs associated with suppressing rebellion, states may rely on civilian self-defense militias to protect their territory from rebel groups. However, this decision is also costly, given that these self-defense groups may undermine control of its territory. This raises the question: why do governments cultivate self-defense militias when doing so risks that these militias will undermine their territorial control? Using a game theoretic model, we argue that states take this risk in order to prevent rebels from co-opting local populations, which in turn may shift power away from the government and toward the rebels. Governments strategically use civilian militias to raise the price rebels must pay for civilian cooperation, prevent rebels from harnessing a territory’s resources, and/or to deter rebels from challenging government control in key areas. Empirically, the model suggests states are likely to support the formation of self-defense militias in territory that may moderately improve the power of rebel groups, but not in areas that are either less valuable or areas that are critical to the government’s survival. These hypotheses are tested using data from the Colombian civil war from 1996 to 2008.     

Eurasian tensions: How the U.S. Should Assess Competitive Pressures from Russia and China

With tensions over Ukraine growing, the Biden administration finds itself confronting a similar charge to one that dogged the Obama administration in the run-up to and aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea: namely, that it is exhibiting weakness that could embolden Moscow and other discontents of the post–Cold War settlement. This judgment overstates U.S. agency while discounting the competitive challenges confronting Russia and China.     

Democratic Hegemony and American Hegemony

The emergence of an ‘American democratic empire’, rising from the global informational and transportation revolution, that has its epicentre situated on the territory of the United States (US), has produced a profound metamorphosis in world affairs. National power elites, including those in America, are confronting a dilemma. They are compelled to accept, favour and even defend the so-called globalisation process in order to avoid further erosion of their economic and political power. On the other hand, this process is also directly threatening this same power. The paradox is that the US is the main promoter and defender of last resort of the new global ‘order’, which at the same time is restricting its own margins for sovereign action. The ‘democratic empire’ is thus fostering the rise of a democratic hegemonism at the expense of a ‘US hegemonism’. This democratic hegemonism is a gradually rising—and fragile—consensus on a proliferating set of perceptions and values, stressing individual freedom, responsibility and political and social activism. This consensus arises from the material possibilities of a more individualistic way of life and the increasing capacity of single individuals or organised groups to participate in global and local political decision-making processes. This is a process that favours the empowerment of interest groups whose reference is no longer solely the nation-state. Hence, traditional power elites are progressively losing their ability to present themselves as the ultimate embodiment of a national ‘general interest’. The irony of the seemingly intractable contradiction between US hegemonism and democratic hegemonism is that the actual spreading of the logic of the latter is closely dependent on US power and willingness to defend its own national interest. The greatest challenge for the coming decades will be the construction of supranational governance institutions under democratic hegemony, so as to avoid a classic imperial self-isolation of the US—a situation that would trigger the inevitable demise of democratic hegemonism and, for the time being, of any order as such.     

民主党执政以来日本对华外交评述

当前，中日关系起伏很大，也出现很多问题、矛盾，甚至是对抗。来自日方的主要原因，在于民主党推行消极的对华政策，导致关系恶化。当前影响两国关系的主要症结和因素，还在于领土与安全领域的矛盾上升，以及美日联合遏制中国。民主党需要重视对华外交，继续坚持发展战略互惠关系，妥善处理有关领土与安全领域的问题，继续发展各项友好合作。     

中国与越南关系2012～2013年回顾与展望

本文主要是对2012年中越关系进行回顾，对2013年面临的问题作一些分析预测，并就发展中越关系提出一些建议。     

非正式制度理论与俄罗斯政治改革

简介非正式制度理论,认为该理论同样适用于政治制度变迁过程.从俄罗斯社会特有的历史文化传统出发,以非正式制度理论作为工具,分析非正式制度对俄罗斯政治转型的重要影响.通过分析非正式制度理论在俄罗斯的表现有助于更深刻地理解俄罗斯政治转型为何困难重重.俄罗斯现代民主政治改革方向虽然不可逆转,但必须沿着非正式制度的演化方向进行,这样才会降低改革成本和提高改革效率.俄罗斯要建立现代民主政治制度,不但要进一步完善正式制度的建设,还要强化非正式制度对此的适应和改变,最终达到二者的相容.     

Kakaя это дружба/what kind of friendship is this? Russia’s “Crimean Syndrome”

Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea without the consent of Ukraine was a rare case of a state taking territory from a state with whom it previously enjoyed friendly relations. The paper seeks to explain the causes and consequences of this annexation by examining theories of democratic peace, constructivism and irredentism. In 1971, political scientist Myron Weiner published an article “The Macedonian Syndrome” in the journal World Politics (vol. 23, no. 4, 665–683). In particular, the paper examines the applicability of Weiner’s theses to Russia’s 2014 attempt to annex Crimea from Ukraine. While Weiner’s theory helps to explain Russia’s moves, his theory can be updated to consider the consequences of those moves. Russia attempted to justify its annexation by transposing the concept of friendship from Ukraine itself to a piece of its territory – Crimea. This transposition rested on a false dichotomy between Ukraine and Crimea, and Russia’s failure to live up to its international commitments to respect Ukrainian borders brought swift consequences in the form of Western sanctions.     

New media and strategic narratives: the Dutch referendum on Ukraine – EU Association Agreement in Ukrainian and Russian Internet blogs

ABSTRACT

This article analyses two confronting narratives authored by Ukrainian and Russian bloggers who reported the Dutch referendum held on 6 March 2016, and discussed Dutch citizens’ referendum vote on the Ukraine–EU Association Agreement. The considered narratives, addressed to the Ukrainian and Russian audiences respectively, are viewed as strategic because they specifically portray political actors of the referendum “drama” – the Netherlands, the European Union (EU), Ukraine and Russia. These actors are significant participants of European international relations, and their perceptions of one another are important for European security at the present time of critical diplomacy. In this paper, information about the DUTCH REFERENDUM obtained from the new media texts is regarded as a narrative-based political concept (NBPC). It is argued that this concept has different versions, or images that reflect the narrators’ biased perceptions imposed upon the public. Identification and comparison of such images require a particular methodology. Therefore, the objective of this paper is two-fold: to expose the two confronting versions of a strategically relevant political image, and to develop an authentic, interdisciplinary methodology for its analysis. The proposed methodology is informed by the ontology theory employed in cognitive science and cognitive linguistics.     

广西北部湾经济区金融支撑体系研究

广西北部湾经济区金融支撑体系建设存在诸如金融运行环境差、金融体系不完善、金融市场结构单一、金融创新不足、金融开放程度低以及金融合作不够等问题，因此，构建包括金融组织、金融协调、金融服务、金融开放、金融合作以及金融生态等功能齐全的金融支撑体系，是促使广西北部湾经济区可持续发展的重要保障。     

Rootless Russia: Kaliningrad — Status and Identity

Kaliningrad, a penurious exclave on the Baltic Sea, geographically separated from Russia and the Confederation of Independent States, remains a largely ignored legacy of World War II. The imminent accession of Lithuania and Poland into the European Union underscores the anomaly of its situation. Disproportionate militarization and neglect in Soviet times left a graphic legacy of social and economic decay. Many principal questions remain to be settled: the status and role of the territory, its relationship with Russia, with the surrounding region, and with the European Union as a whole. These issues are greatly compounded by the lack among its residents of a clear historically formed self-perception. However, a new local identity appears to be germinating.

The absence of experience among Moscow bureaucrats with genuine federalism and their instinctive distrust of decentralization has so far only produced stillborn solutions of the problem of the status and role of the territory within the Russian Federation. The expansion of the European Union in the region presents an imperative for Russia to determine its future relationship with the Union. In so doing, Russia also needs to redefine itself. The eventual emergence of some unorthodox form of genuine local autonomy of the territory seems likely. Its appearance may serve as a catalyst for positive political development in Russia.