Exchange rate, inflation and unemployment in East European economies: the case of Poland and Hungary*

The aim of the paper is to model the impact of exchange rate on both inflation and unemployment variables in economies which are characterized by important structural changes, i.e. a transition phase moving from centralized economies towards market economies. This phenomenon, which is common to the East European countries, stressed different effects both for what concerns the behaviour of economic agents and for what concerns fiscal and monetary measures adopted by governments and aiming to keep under control the inflation–unemployment trade off. Time series relationships between these variables are investigated within an econometric model. Economic theory and the available data on the hypothetically relevant variables, along with the consideration of the main facts occurred in the period under study, characterize our information set. It is found that single equation analysis yields inefficient inference relative to the whole system analysis, and important structural changes are detected which reflect possible breaks in the structure of the economic system along with a change in economic policy.     

Polymorphisms of the cholecystokinin gene promoter region in suicide victims in Japan

Cholecystokinin (CCK), a neurotransmitter in the central nervous system (CNS), co-exists in a large portion of A10 dopamine neurons to exert some effect on dopamine behavior. The aim of this study was to determine whether any association exists between the genotype of CCK gene promoter regions (-45C/T and -196G/A) and suicidal behavior. Genotypes and allele frequencies of CCK -45C/T and -196G/A were analyzed using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) followed by single-strand conformational polymorphism (SSCP) analysis on the genomic DNA from selected suicide victims (N=154) and from control subjects (N=328). Statistical analysis was performed using the Mantel-Haesnzel chi2-test and multiple logistic regression analysis with distinction of gender. An association between CCK -196G/A polymorphism and suicidal behavior in Japanese males was confirmed by statistical analysis (Odds ratio: 3.462, 95% CI: 1.128-10.626, P=0.038 by multiple logistic regression analysis). However, a significant association between CCK -196G/A polymorphism and suicidal behavior was not discovered in females. The polymorphism of the CCK gene promoter region was found to represent a susceptibility factor for suicidal behavior in Japanese males.     

The suicide mortality rates between 1997-1998 and 2000-2001 in Nantou County of Taiwan following the earthquake of September 21 in 1999.

The paper aims to show the different suicide mortality rate between 1997-1998 and 2000-2001 in Nantou County of Taiwan with earthquake on September 21 (often referred to as the "9-21 earthquake") in 1999. In additional, it also identifies the preventive strategies for the high-risk suicide population. The age-standardized mortality rates for suicide in Nantou County were calculated for the years 1997-1998 and 2000-2001. The suicide standardized mortality ratio (SMR for townships in Nantou were calculated by "type of township" as the standard rate). There is a statistically significant difference in male suicide rates for the years prior to the earthquake (1997-1998) when pooled and compared to the suicide rates for the years after the earthquake (2000-2001). The rate for four age groups (under 25, 25-44, 45-64, 65 and above) all increased, yet all but one (the group of age 45-64) was not statistically significant. The male SMR has slightly increased after the 9-21 earthquake. Yet there are no statistical significances in most townships, except in Kaohsiung and Puli after the 9-21 earthquake. The Kaohsiung SMRs were 1.36 (95% CI: 0.54-2.80) before the earthquake (1997-1998) and 2.01 (95% CI: 1.04-3.52) after the earthquake (2000-2001). The SMRs before and after the earthquake in the Puli Township were 1.51 (95% CI: 0.95-2.29) to 1.56 (95% CI: 1.03-2.27). This study suggests that monitoring high-risk population, especially males or 45-64 years of age who experienced the highest statistically significant suicide rate in this study. The study provides support for providing both the psychological restoration program and, to the extent feasible, financial support for the unemployed as useful public health strategies for suicide prevention in Taiwan.     

颅脑损伤后血液中S100β含量与损伤程度的关系

目的探讨血清中S100β蛋白含量与创伤性脑损伤程度的关系及法医学意义。方法选取健康体检者、颅脑损伤患者和其他创伤患者各30名作为研究对象,再根据入院时的GCS评分,将颅脑损伤患者分为轻中型组（GCS≥8分）和重型组（GCS〈8分）。用ELISA法对上述研究对象血清中S100β蛋白含量进行检测。结果在脑外伤6h内,颅脑损伤组血清S100β蛋白含量较正常对照组和创伤对照组升高,差异有统计学意义（P〈0.05）;重型组与轻中型组相比,差异有统计学意义（P〈0.05）。血清中S100β蛋白含量越高,患者颅脑损伤程度越严重。结论S100β蛋白可作为早期检测创伤性颅脑损伤的指标之一,其含量越高,颅脑损伤程度越重。     

血栓调节蛋白表达与大鼠脑挫伤时间的相关性

目的观察大鼠实验性脑挫伤后不同时问内脑组织、血浆中血栓调节蛋白（TM）的变化,探讨其与损伤经过时间的关系。方法参照Feeney’S法建立大鼠脑挫伤模型,在伤后1h、4h、8h、12h、24h、3d、7d7个时问点提取心帆及脑组织检材,运用酶联免疫法（ELISA法）检测f血浆TM含量,用免疫组织化学方法检测脑组织中TM刖性表达。检测数据应川SPSS13．0统计软件分析处理。结果与对照组比较,TM的阳性表达、IOD值和血浆含量存挫伤后4h开始增加,至24h达到高峰,随后逐渐减少,伤后3dTM血浆含量仍高于对照组,7d后基本恢复至对照纰水平。伤后4h～3d之间各组与对照组比较均有统计学意义（P〈0．05）。结论脑挫伤后TM表达随时间变化的规律性有助于推断呐损伤时间。     

The dynamics of unemployment and imprisonment in England and Wales, 1946–1985

This paper explores the dynamic relationship between unemployment and prison admissions in the English criminal justice system. First, by adopting econometric procedures designed to test between alternative forms of dynamic equilibria, it finds that there has been a steady-state growth rate in prison admissions and that unemployment growth has played an important role in determining that equilibrium. Second, by developing a behavioral model of judicial expectations, it argues that judges have used their expectations as heuristic devices for simplifying sentencing decisions and that the unanticipated changes in unemployment have played a key role in determining changes in sentencing patterns. Due to individualized sentencing practices characteristic of English judges, unemployment plays a much larger role in determining prison sentences than warranted under Anglo-American legal traditions.     

Macro-economic determinants of penal policy: Estimating the unemployment and inflation influences on imprisonment rate changes in the United States, 1948–1985

Conflict theory proposes that systemic economic distress generates problem populations which require control via palliative and coercive means. Most previous research has concentrated on examining the unemployment-imprisonment relationship. A review of the literature suggests that other structural conditions that generate marginalization as well as the state's placative control must be considered in order to understand the linkage between economic-fiscal forces and penal policy. Using annual time-series data for the period 1948–1985, the present paper examines the extent to which changes in inprisonment rates reflect (a) governmental attempts to offset the threat of unemployment and inflation and (b) fiscal limitations placed by state expenditures on placative controls. The results indicate support for the conflict thesis, with inflation rates and annual fluctuations in black and white male unemployment rates exerting an independent positive effect upon imprisonment-rate changes, after controlling for variations in violent crime rates, prison capacity, and age structure. Possible reasons for the lack of evidence regarding trade-offs between state's placative and coercive policies are discussed and suggestions for further research are noted. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** AW502010 00003     

Inequality, unemployment and crime in Latin American cities

Crime rates in many Latin American citiestend to be very high. But there is alsodiversity between and within cities. Regardless of whether the role ofdeterrence or those of poverty andinequality are emphasised as causes ofcrime, the use of aggregate data instatistical work may provoke seriousunobserved-heterogeneity biases. Diversity, divisiveness and heterogeneitymay also affect future trends, includingfurther vigilantism, official orsemi-official violence, segmentation,privatisation and ``medievalisation'. Thediscussion is completed by some ideas as tothe possibility that Latin America'spresent may be an accurate forecast ofEurope's future.