Modeling violent crime rates: A test of social disorganization in the city of Tshwane, South Africa

Tests of social disorganization theory are commonplace in international criminological literature. Indeed a plethora of studies had emerged over the past seventy years examining and extending the theory throughout much of the developed world. The testing, however, of the landmark theory's key propositions in Africa in general, and South Africa in particular, is in its infancy. This study aimed to address this shortcoming by analyzing associations between various census measures of social disorganization and violent crime rates in the city of Tshwane, South Africa. Overall, marginal support was found for the social disorganization theory: violent crime in Tshwane was associated with certain measures of socioeconomic deprivation, and residential mobility. The study not only demonstrated the applicability of certain elements of Western criminological theory to contemporary urban South Africa, but also revealed important differences in the ecological dynamics of violent crime across differing cultural contexts.     

Fear,Social Interactions,and Violence Mitigation

The fear of crime is generally considered as a social ill that undermines dimensions of individual well-being. Prior research generally specifies the fear of crime as an outcome variable in order to understand its complex etiology. More recently, however, researchers have suggested fear has a deterrence function whereby it reduces individuals’ involvement in violent encounters. This notion could hold important clues to understand the social sources of violence. We examine whether the fear of crime inhibits involvement in violent encounters, both as offender or victim, and if adjustments in routine activities explain these effects. The results suggest fear of crime reduces violence involvement, in part, by constraining routine activities. We conclude that the fear of crime appears to be a mechanism of violence mitigation that, paradoxically, bolsters physical well-being. The results are discussed with regard to their implications for criminological theory and research on interpersonal violence.     

COERCION,SOCIAL SUPPORT,AND CRIME: AN EMERGING THEORETICAL CONSENSUS*

Two themes, coercion and social support, have emerged over the past two decades in criminology that can be used to build a new integrated theory of crime. The authors provide a review of recent theoretical developments in criminology to demonstrate that two interconnected themes provide the basis for a new consensus in theory and crime policy. With some important exceptions, coercion causes crime and social support prevents crime. The authors develop a theory of differential social support and coercion that integrates concepts from a broad range of criminological theories. Implications of this integrated theory for public policy are explored.     

Urban crime rates and the changing face of immigration: Evidence across four decades

Research has shown little support for the enduring proposition that increases in immigration are associated with increases in crime. Although classical criminological and neoclassical economic theories would predict immigration to increase crime, most empirical research shows quite the opposite. We investigate the immigration-crime relationship among metropolitan areas over a 40 year period from 1970 to 2010. Our goal is to describe the ongoing and changing association between immigration and a broad range of violent and property crimes. Our results indicate that immigration is consistently linked to decreases in violent (e.g., murder) and property (e.g., burglary) crime throughout the time period.     

CORRELATES OF VIOLENT POLITICAL EXTREMISM IN THE UNITED STATES*

Although research on terrorism has grown rapidly in recent years, few scholars have applied criminological theories to the analysis of individual‐level political extremism. Instead, researchers focused on radicalization have drawn primarily from political science and psychology and have overwhelmingly concentrated on violent extremists, leaving little variation in the dependent variable. With the use of a newly available data set, we test whether variables derived from prominent criminological theories are helpful in distinguishing between nonviolent and violent extremists. The results show that variables related to social control (lack of stable employment), social learning (radical peers), psychological perspectives (history of mental illness), and criminal record all have significant effects on participation in violent political extremism and are robust across multiple techniques for imputing missing data. At the same time, other common indicators of social control (e.g., education and marital status) and social learning perspectives (e.g., radical family members) were not significant in the multivariate models. We argue that terrorism research would benefit from including criminology insights and by considering political radicalization as a dynamic, evolving process, much as life‐course criminology treats more common forms of crime.     

Public opinion on crime causation: An exploratory study of Philadelphia area residents

Purpose

This study examined the views on crime causation from a sample of randomly selected Philadelphia area residents.

Methods

Through the use of a phone survey, residents (N = 359) were asked thirty seven questions related to their level of support for several criminological theories, including classical theory, biological theory, psychological theory, social disorganization theory, strain/general strain theory, subcultural theory, social learning theory, social control/general theory, labeling theory, critical theory, and environmental criminology theory. The analyses assessed whether the views of respondents differed by race, gender, and political ideology. Both across-race and within-race analyses were also conducted to determine the nuances of the support for specific criminological perspectives.

Results

The results pointed to numerous significant gender differences and across-race differences in public opinion on crime causation but few within-race differences. The results also confirmed previous research that supported the notion that one's political ideology is tied to the level of support for certain criminological theories.

Conclusion

Overall, the results point to the merits of including the views of lay persons when there are discussions pertaining to crime causation.     

Social learning and self-control: assessing the moderating potential of criminal propensity

Social learning theory is one of the most prominent general theories of crime. Yet recent research has called into question its applicability to all offenders. Specifically, the influence of antisocial peers has been found to exert a stronger effect among those individuals evincing higher levels of criminal propensity (deemed social amplification), whereas other components of the theory have either not been shown to interact with criminal propensity or not been tested. This study examines several social learning theory components to determine whether its influence is dependent on an individual's level of self-control. Results suggest little support for the social amplification hypothesis as the components of social learning theory were found to operate similarly across individuals regardless one's level of self-control. Implications for criminological theory are discussed.     

Social support as an organizing concept for criminology: Presidential address to the academy of criminal justice sciences

Although “social support” is present as a theme in many criminological writings, it has not been identified explicitly as a concept capable of organizing theory and research in criminology. Drawing on existing criminological and related writings, this address derives a series of propositions that form the foundation, in a preliminary way, for the “social support paradigm” of the study of crime and control. The overriding contention is that whether social support is delivered through government social programs, communities, social networks, families, interpersonal relations, or agents of the criminal justice system, it reduces criminal involvement. Further, I contend that insofar as the social support paradigm proves to be “Good Criminology”—establishing that nonsupportive policies and conditions are criminogenic—it can provide grounds for creating a more supportive, “Good Society.”     

Advancing Science and Research in Criminal Justice/Criminology: Complex Systems Theory and Non‐Linear Analyses

For over a century, criminological research has been able to explain a consistently small amount of the variation in crime. It is plausible that the problem with criminological theory is not in the theory but in the analysis. Complex systems science (CSS) attempts to examine data in a different way – often making the most of error data discarded by linear analyses. This paper addresses the viability of using CSS in criminological research. An example is drawn from social disorganization theory to demonstrate the ability of CSS to explain crime at the neighborhood level. The result is a new theory called Ecodynamics Theory, developed by combining the elements of neighborhood research with complex systems analyses. The implications of this theory to increase the efficacy of criminological research are discussed.     

Deconstructing Criminology’s Origin Stories

The global production of knowledge is grossly skewed to the northern Anglophone world (Hogg et al. in International Journal for Crime, Justice and Social Democracy, 6(1), 1–7, 2017; Connell 2007). It should be no surprise therefore that criminology’s origin stories are derivative of northern experiences, yet generalised as universal theories of crime causation. In this article, we argue that the origin stories of criminological theory translated the ‘darker’, ‘hairier’ and ‘muscular’ masculinities of the global south into prototypes of dangerousness. These prototypes were first articulated as scientific claims in the nineteenth century works of Lombroso, but have been refined and embedded in mainstream criminological discourses well into the present, mainly through the quantitative study of social disorganisation, ‘race’ and racialised masculinities as variables in crime causation. The paper concedes that while deeply troubling expressions of violent masculinity exist now and in the past in the global south, it is mistaken to conceive this violence simply as expressions of atavism or social disorganisation associated with a less civilised world. On the contrary, this paper argues that the violence of colonality itself has had, and continues to have, a criminogenic impact on the present.     

Juvenile Delinquency in the Federal Republic of Germany

Juvenile delinquency has gained recognition worldwide as one of the most prominent criminological problem areas as well as a pressing crime political issue. The current state of this field in Germany is characterized by a tremendous increase after World War II, similar to other west European countries, but slightly leveling down since the Eighties. However, the great bulk of juvenile delinquency is built by minor offenses-in particular petty theft and non-serious road traffic offenses. Violence (although with an enormous increase), illegal drug offenses, and sexual crimes make together not more than one fifth of the total volume of youth crime. On the whole, juvenile delinquency represents the deviant behavior of young males; the proportion of female crime—although increasing too- is not higher than three decades ago, and consists mainly of shoplifting and bicycle theft. Youngsters of foreign groups or minorities are more involved in delinquency at present than in the Seventies or earlier, partly in activities of violent groups. While, in the past, rockers mainly got attention, now soccer hooligans and violent right-wing skinheads, especially when attacking minority people and asylum seekers, are in the forefront of public interest. This is true for East and West Germany. In general, the delinquents come mostly from the lower social strata, show socialization defects, have reduced start chances, are often unemployed, and are without or have less social support by their families. With regard to this, criminological experts favor socialization theories, social learning and control theories to explain these phenomena, emphasizing the binding forces of the underlying orientation of moral values. The corresponding guidelines of juvenile crime policy give preference to the application of non-custodial measures and diversion strategies on one hand, and to the reduction of freedom-depriving sanctions like community service or offender-victim-mediation on the other, indicating a successive retreat from a traditional punitive concept.     

Social support and homicide in transitional Russia

Like the United States, Russia is a large industrialized nation with high violence rates. Although its overall homicide rate is among the highest in the world, however, local rates of crime vary widely. Similarly, the level of social support provided by the state varies throughout Russia due to former Soviet policies, the differential pace of political and economic change, and the level of development. Relying upon recent criminological literature on social support theory, this study tested the hypotheses that areas with higher levels of social support will have lower homicide rates and that the effects of negative socioeconomic change on homicide rates will be moderated by levels of social support. Utilizing data from Russian regions (n = 78) and controlling for other structural covariates, negative binomial regression was employed to estimate the effects of social support on regional homicide rates. As expected, negative socioeconomic change was associated with higher homicide rates, but the results provided no support for direct or conditioning effects of social support on homicide. The findings are discussed in the context of Russia-specific conditions and of the meaning of these findings for recent research on social support and crime.     

SOCIAL SUPPORT,INEQUALITY, AND HOMICIDE: A CROSS‐NATIONAL TEST OF AN INTEGRATED THEORETICAL MODEL*

Social support, institutional anomie, and macrolevel general strain perspectives have emerged as potentially important explanations of aggregate levels of crime. Drawing on insights from each of these perspectives in a cross‐national context, the analyses show that 1) our measure of social support is inversely related to homicide rates, 2) economic inequality also maintains a direct relationship with homicide rates, and 3) social support significantly interacts with economic inequality to influence homicide rates. The implications of the analysis for ongoing discourse concerning the integration of these criminological theories and the implications for the development of effective crime control policies are discussed.     

Crime clearance rates in Canadian municipalities: A test of Donald Black's theory of law

Donald Black's theory of law has been considered an important theory in the sociology of law. However, while the theory views law as a quantity variable, there has been limited empirical support from quantitative studies. This study offers a quantitative test of Black's theory using data from 579 Canadian municipalities. The results show that the quantity of law, in terms of crime clearance rates, varies positively with stratification, morphology, culture, and organization just as Black's theory has predicted. In addition, population size, population density, the property and violent crime rates, and policing resources also affect the clearance rates. These findings support the general notion that there is more law for certain groups and under certain social conditions. Also, most of the findings are consistent with Black's theory, thus supporting its viability as a sociological theory. In addition, two seemingly contradictory explanations, the resource explanation and the need/dependency explanation, are proposed to interpret the findings. These contradictory and yet complementary explanations perhaps reflect the reality of law in society.     

Space matters: An analysis of poverty,poverty clustering,and violent crime

While numerous criminological theories emphasize the theoretical importance of the spatial distribution of poverty, few studies specifically examine the empirical relationship between the spatial clustering of high poverty areas and violent crime rates. In this analysis we examine the association between poverty clustering and violent crime rates across 236 cities. For each city we compute a poverty cluster score that measures the proportion of contiguous high poverty census tracts. We find little support for a direct relationship between the spatial clustering of high poverty tracts and murder, rape, robbery, and assault. However, variables that measure city disadvantage (e.g., poverty) interact with poverty clustering scores in the case of homicide rates. Specifically, disadvantage has a much stronger relationship to homicide in cities with high levels of poverty clustering. Such an interaction effect is strongly supported by the literature.     

THE RELEVANCE OF PEACE TO STUDIES OF DRUG MARKET VIOLENCE*

Goldstein's (1985) concept of systemic violence has contributed substantially to criminological thought and research, but its power can be enhanced by connecting it to a broader typology of social life: the resource exchange—social control typology. That typology connects systemic violence logically with two important yet neglected forms of drug market behavior: peaceful resource exchange and peaceful social control. This article, which is based on 50 in‐depth interviews with individuals involved actively or recently in drug selling, describes the various forms of violent and nonviolent resource exchange and social control in illicit drug markets, stating them in quantitative terms that are conceptually distinct and empirically observable. We conclude by discussing 1) the implications of peaceful behavior for a fuller understanding of violence and 2) the relevance of the resource exchange‐social control typology to criminological theory and research.     

Peacemaking Criminology

This is an overview of the work of criminologists that informs how people build trust, safe and social security in the face of violent social differences. The article begins with a story of how the term “peacemaking” came to “criminology.” A theory of peacemaking emerging from this beginning is then stated, including a review of criminological literature that informs the theory. The theory is grounded in a paradigmatic departure from criminology’s tradition—the study of crime and criminality—to proposing instead of studying what replaces human separation with cooperation and mutual trust. This paradigm implies that stories of dispute handling are its most authoritative data, especially stories people tell about their own relations. It also implies new ways of evaluating the fruits of adopting a peacemaking paradigm for learning and living.     

THE EMPIRICAL STATUS OF GOTTFREDSON AND HIRSCHI'S GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME: A META-ANALYSIS

To determine the empirical status of Gottfredson and Hirschi's (1990) "general theory of crime," we conducted a meta-analysis on existing empirical studies. The results indicate that, regardless of measurement differences, low self-control is an important predictor of crime and of "analogous behaviors." Also, low self-control has general effects across different types of samples. Contrary to Gottfredson and Hirschi's position, however, the effect of low self-control is weaker in longitudinal studies, and variables from social learning theory still receive support in studies that include a measure of low self-control. Finally, we argue that meta-analysis is an underutilized tool in discerning the relative empirical merits of criminological theories.     

Why rural crime and justice really matter

While it is true that in general urban crime is roughly three times higher than rural crime, over the last decades rural crime has increased at the same rate as crime in big cities. Whereas violent crime in large cities rose from 1966 through 1991 and then declined, rural rates drifted upward for the entire period. Moreover, some crimes are more prevalent in rural settings than in cities, while some others by definition cannot even be committed in cities at all (“rural-specific offenses”). Meanwhile, researchers have paid little attention to rural crime and justice. This is highly regrettable given that studying rural crime and justice can potentially contribute in very important ways both to criminological theory and to crime policy. This article deals with why it is important for researchers, the justice system, and society in general to pay greater attention to issues of rural crime and rural justice. Among the reasons discussed are statistical arguments defying popular misconceptions, arguments in the field of criminological theory, counterintuitive trends in rural crime, various disadvantages which rural areas suffer compared with urban ones, strategies for dealing with crime which must be adapted to the rural environment, and some others. Finally, both theory and policy implications are discussed, demonstrating that rural crime cannot be understood or controlled in the same ways as urban crime is. Author Note: Dr. Wojciech Cebulak recived his Master's in Law from Copernicus University in Torun, Poland, and his Ph.D. in Criminal Justice from Rutgers University. He has taught at Salem State College, Oklahoma State University, Kent State University, and is currently an Associate Professor at the Department of Criminal Justice, Minot State University, 500 University Avenue West, Minot, ND 58707. He has also been Project Director of the Research Partner/Crime Analyst Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) initiative for the District of North Dakota.