Trusting the State,Trusting Each Other? The Effect of Institutional Trust on Social Trust

Trust in state institutions is a prominent explanation of social trust. However, previous—mainly cross-sectional—analyses provide limited causal evidence regarding the relationship between institutional trust and social trust and it is thus essentially unknown whether an observed relationship reflects reverse causality (social trust forming institutional trust), or both forms of trust reflecting deep-seated dispositions (common confounding). Against the backdrop of the shortcomings of previous cross-sectional analyses, this paper utilizes two Danish panel surveys containing measures of both types of trust for the same individuals surveyed at multiple points in time over a long time-span (up to 18 years) to address the potentially reverse and/or spurious relationship. Using individual fixed effects and cross-lagged panel models, the results provide strong evidence of trust in state institutions exercising a causal impact on social trust, whereas the evidence for a reverse relationship is limited.     

The political economy of sales taxes and sales tax exemptions

I analyze the choice politicians face when seeking votes from groups that lobby for sales tax rate decreases or tax exemptions, given the constraint that politicians want to raise a certain amount of revenue. Using data on sales taxes, I develop a model predicting a positive relationship between the number of exemptions and the sales tax rate. The estimation results provide support for this prediction. Each additional exemption is associated with an increase of between 0.10 and 0.25 percentage points in the tax rate.

     

Mandatory retirement and labor-force participation of respondents in the Retirement History Study

The Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA) was amended in 1978 to prohibit mandatory retirement before age 70 in most occupations. The impact of this legislation on the probability of older persons remaining in the labor force is the primary concern of this article. Specifically, questions concerning which older workers are affected by mandatory-retirement provisions and the extent to which they are forced to retire and leave the labor force are examined. Tabular analysis of data from the Retirement History Study on persons aged 62-63 in 1969 shows significant variation in mandatory-retirement coverage between the public and private sectors and across industries, occupations, and demographic groups. Until age 65, the labor-force participation rate of those facing compulsory retirement is higher than or equal to that of those not covered but it drops significantly below the noncovered rate after 65. Logit analysis of the labor-force participation of persons before and after age 65 indicates that mandatory retirement at that age reduces the probability of retirement by approximately 16.7 percentage points for white men wage earners. This results in a decline in the labor-force participation rate of all men aged 66-67 of approximately 4 percentage points.     

Who does better for the economy? Presidents versus parliamentary democracies

Are certain forms of government associated with superior economic outcomes? This paper attempts to answer that question by examining how government systems influence macroeconomic performance. We find that presidential regimes consistently are associated with less favorable outcomes than parliamentary regimes: slower output growth, higher and more volatile inflation and greater income inequality. Moreover, the magnitude of the effect is sizable. For example, annual output growth is between 0.6 and 1.2 percentage points lower and inflation is estimated to be at least four percentage points higher under presidential regimes relative to those under parliamentary ones. The difference in distributional outcomes is even starker; income inequality is 12 to 24% worse under presidential systems.     

The Unexpected Effects of No Pass,No Drive Policies on High School Education

Since 1988, 27 states have introduced No Pass, No Drive laws, which tie a teenager's ability to receive and maintain a driver's license to various school-related outcomes—most commonly, enrollment and attendance. Enrollment-Based No Pass, No Drive policies, in 21 states, target both enrollment and attendance, and have negligible effects on dropout rates. However, these policies decrease the Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate (AFGR) by between 1 and 1.7 percentage points. This lower graduation rate stems from students delaying their dropout decision by up to two years. As a result, these students are retained in the ninth and tenth grades, increasing 9th-grade enrollment by 3.6 percent relative to 8th-grade enrollment the year prior; this causes an artificial reduction in the graduation rate, rather than a reduction in the true likelihood that a student will graduate. Truancy-Based No Pass, No Drive policies, in five states, target only attendance—teens that fail to meet a minimum attendance requirement lose their driver's license. However, these policies allow students to drop out of school without facing this penalty. These policies increase the annual dropout rate by between 23 and 34 percent (1 to 1.6 percentage points).     

A behavioral measure of the enthusiasm gap in American elections

What are the effects of a mobilized party base on elections? I present a new behavioral measure of the enthusiasm gap in a set of American elections to identify how the turnout rate of the party faithful varies across different contexts. I find that the advantaged party can see its registrants turn out by four percentage points more than the disadvantaged party in some elections, and that this effect can be even larger in competitive House districts. I estimate the net benefit to party vote share of the mobilized base, which is around one percentage point statewide, and up to one and one half points in competitive House contests. These results suggest that the partisan characteristics of an election have consequences not just for vote choice, but for the composition of the electorate.     

For richer or for poorer: Marriage as an antipoverty strategy

This study examines the effects of changes in family structure on children's economic well‐being. An initial shift‐share analysis indicates that, had the proportion of children living in female‐headed families remained constant since 1970, the 1998 child poverty rate would have been 4.4 percentage points lower than its actual 1998 level of 18.3 percent. The March 1999 Current Population Survey is then used to conduct a second analysis in which marriages are simulated between single mothers and demographically similar, unrelated males. The microsimulation analysis addresses some of the shortcomings of the shift‐share approach by making it possible to account for the possibility of a shortage of marriageable men, to control for unobservable differences between married men and women and their unmarried counterparts, and to measure directly the effects of increases in marriage on the economic well‐being of children. Results from the microsimulation analysis suggest that, had the proportion of children living in female‐headed families remained constant since 1970, the child poverty rate would have been 3.4 percentage points lower than its actual 1998 level. Among children whose mother participated in a simulated marriage, the poverty rate would have fallen by almost two‐thirds. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Macroeconomic performance,political trust and the Great Recession: A multilevel analysis of the effects of within‐country fluctuations in macroeconomic performance on political trust in 15 EU countries, 1999–2011

Recent cross‐national comparative studies have found no effect of countries’ macroeconomic performances on trust in national political institutions, once political explanations (most notably corruption) are taken into account. Although political trust is not determined by the comparison of national economic performance to other countries, it is argued in this article that it is affected by comparisons to their own past performance. In a multilevel, fixed effects analysis of Eurobarometer data (21 waves in 15 European Union Member States between 1999 and 2011) the extent to which within‐country variations in economic performance affect political trust longitudinally is tested. Three major conclusions are reached. First, within‐country, longitudinal changes in performance (growth, deficits, unemployment and inflation) affect political trust. Second, the impact of macroeconomic performance is stronger among the lower educated. Third, even in times of economic duress, budgetary deficits tend to undermine political trust.     

Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results

Aggregate votes for incumbent parties in post-war Germany were determined by the weighted-average growth of real per capita disposable income. Each percentage point of per capita real disposable income growth sustained over the legislative term yielded approximately two percentage points of votes in Germany. No other economic variables add value or significantly perturb the coefficients of our model. However, attrition of power reduced the vote share in election years 1961, 1994 and 1998.     

公信力:文明政府的重要指标——兼谈政府如何赢得公信

近年来,许多案例表明政府公信力在下降。本文依据学术界有关信任的一般理论,讨论了政府公信力的内涵、意义和来源,简要分析了政府公信力流失的原因,指出重构政府公信力需要一场持久的诚实施政运动和政府再造工程。     

Do Corruption and Social Trust Affect Economic Growth? A Review

Abstract

Two separate literatures suggest that corruption and social trust, respectively, are related to economic growth, although the strengths of the relationships, and the direction of causality, are still debated. This paper reviews these literatures and evaluates the evidence for causal effects of corruption and trust on economic growth, and discusses how corruption and trust are interrelated. The reviews show that absence of corruption and high levels of social trust foster economic growth. The literatures also indicate that corruption has a causal effect on social trust, while the opposite effect is more uncertain. The conclusion offers the suggestion that fighting corruption may yield a “double dividend”, as reduced corruption is likely to have both direct and indirect effects on growth.     

Spheres of trust: An empirical analysis of the foundations of particularised and generalised trust

While the literature on trust has produced various conceptual models, there is also some confusion concerning different types of trust and their formation. In this article, three contested points are empirically clarified. First, are there really different forms of trust as much of the literature suggests? Second, if so, then how are these different types of trust related to each other? Third, what are the foundations of these different forms of trust? Relying on data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel, it is concluded that two types of trust can be empirically identified: an intimate trust in people close to the truster, as well as an abstract trust in people in general. Although these types of trust constitute separate dimensions, they are positively related to each other. Furthermore, this article challenges the widely held assumption that experiences are most relevant for particularised trust, while generalised trust is based on psychological predispositions. It is argued instead for a sphere‐specific logic of trust formation: It is the radius of experiences and predispositions that matters for the radius of trust. Finally, the analysis goes beyond the existing research by highlighting hitherto unknown conditions under which trust in familiar domains is more or less likely to extend to generalised trust.     

Characteristics of individuals with integrated pensions

Employer pensions that integrate benefits with Social Security have been the focus of relatively little research. Since changes in Social Security benefit levels and other program characteristics can affect the benefit levels and other features of integrated pension plans, it is important to know who is covered by these plans. This article examines the characteristics of workers covered by integrated pension plans, compared to those with nonintegrated plans and those with no pension coverage. Integrated pension plans are those that explicitly adjust their benefit structure to help compensate for the employer's contributions to the Social Security program. There are two basic integration methods used by defined benefit (DB) plans. The offset method causes a reduction in employer pension benefits by up to half of the Social Security retirement benefit; the excess rate method is characterized by an accrual rate that is lower for earnings below the Social Security taxable maximum than above it. Defined contribution (DC) pension plans can be integrated along the lines of the excess rate method. To date, research on integrated pensions has focused on plan characteristics, as reported to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) through its Employee Benefits Survey (EBS). This research has examined the prevalence of integration among full-time, private sector workers by industry, firm size, and broad occupational categories. However, because the EBS provides virtually no data on worker characteristics, analyses of the effects of pension integration on retirement benefits have used hypothetical workers, varying according to assumed levels of earnings and job tenure. This kind of analysis is not particularly helpful in examining the potential effects of changes in the Social Security program on workers' pension benefits. However, data on pension integration at the individual level are available, most recently from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative survey of individuals aged 51-61 in 1992. This dataset provides the basis for the analysis presented here. The following are some of the major findings from this analysis. The incidence of pension integration in the HRS sample is 32 percent of all workers with a pension (14 percent of all workers). The HRS can also identify integrated DC plans, a statistic that is not available from BLS data. The rate of integration for workers with only DC plans is 8 percent. After controlling for other variables, several socio-demographic characteristics are significantly related to the incidence of integration. The probability of having an integrated pension is 4.6 percentage points less for men compared to women. Non-Hispanic blacks are 6.4 percentage points less likely than non-Hispanic whites to have integrated pensions. Union members are 14 percentage points less likely to have integrated pensions, while workers with less than a graduate level education are at least 15 percentage points more likely to have a pension that is integrated. Some earnings and pension characteristics are also significantly correlated with pension integration. Earnings are positively related, with the probability of having an integrated pension increasing by 2 percentage points for an increase of $1,000 in annual pay. An even larger effect comes from earning at or above the Social Security taxable maximum. Workers at or above this income level are 10 percentage points more likely to have an integrated plan, but for those with more than one plan the probability of pension integration goes up by 13 percentage points.     

Effects of deregulation and performance on government accountability: Role of trust in Korea,Japan, and the United States

Public administration has been struggling to address the balance between conflicting government values. Trust in the study is employed as nodal value to reconcile modern management dilemma concerning conflicting relationships between performance and accountability and between discretion and accountability. Using 2012 International Social Survey Program data, this paper analyzed the moderator and mediator role of government trust among discretion, performance, and accountability in cases of South Korea, Japan, and the United States. This study used factor analysis and ordinary least square multiple regression analysis. The statistical results partially confirmed the hypotheses regarding the mediating and moderating role of trust: (a) the moderating effect of the trust on the relationship between performance and accountability in South Korea; (b) the moderating impact of the trust on the relationship between deregulation and accountability in Japan; and (c) when governments work well, it leads to high level of trust, in turn followed by high accountability in the United States and Japan.     

Does India's growth matter? Evidence from the SAARC nations

The study estimates the extent of spillover effects that India's real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has on the growth rates of other countries in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region for the period 2003–2016. It also identifies whether the conventional trade channel is the means through which growth is transmitted from India to her neighboring countries. Using a random effects model, we conclude that on average, a 1 percentage point increase in India's real per capita GDP growth rate results in 0.46 percentage point increase in the per capita GDP growth rates of other SAARC nations. However, this does not occur through the trade channel primarily due to low levels of intraregional trade. Also, using time dummies, the paper analyzes whether there has been any significant change in the degree of spillover effects in the postfinancial crisis period, where countries have been observed to insulate themselves to a certain extent.     

Corporatism and Social Trust: Bringing Voluntary Organizations ‘Back In’

Abstract

In analyses of the sources of social trust, it has been found that voluntary organizations have no effect upon it. Such analyses have overlooked the role of civil society organizations as intermediary structures between the citizen and the state. This article explores how organizations, linked together in corporatist networks, help generate trust. Two mechanisms for this are pointed out. First, in societies with strong corporatist networks conflicts between employers and employees are perceived as less strong than in societies with weak corporatist networks. Second, as societies with strong corporatist networks also are more egalitarian, conflicts between rich and poor are also perceived as less pronounced than in societies with weak corporatist networks. This analysis provides definite indications that the perception of conflicts between workers and managers, and the perception of conflicts between rich and poor are intermediary variables between corporatism and social trust, and thus supports the hypothesis that voluntary organizations, through corporatist networks of negotiation and coordination, contribute to the growth of social trust.     

Liberation regimes and land reform in Africa. Land politics transcending enmity in South Africa

Truthfulness, the norm of science, is etymologically related to trust. Both concepts are related to ‘tree’, as a symbol for grounded knowledge, for differentiation (the tree of knowledge), for uprightness and reliability (Searle, 1995). Truthfulness generates trust. Trust generates community. The land politics and trust project in South Africa (Askvik and Bak, 2005) investigated how trust relations intervened within and between government institutions engaged in redistribution and management of land. It enquired into trust relations between the land state and stakeholders in land. It assessed how the new ANC‐controlled state intervened into the relation between market‐oriented urban industry and subsistence‐oriented livelihoods on communal land. Could that intervention explain the slow pace of land redistribution? The field work was done in the Northern and the Western Cape provinces. A hypothesis is that unconditional personal trust across institutional boundaries is a condition for post‐colonial, post‐liberation community building. In 2001, aspects of political democracy were in place. Trust relations between government institutions and to stakeholders in land varied, but were limited. Trusted mediators between the institutions, across cultures, were few and far apart. Subsistence‐oriented livelihoods on communal land were there to be transformed to commercial farming. The three‐step Government strategy, growth in the urban economy, commercialisation of rural subsistence production and rural welfare from the urban surplus, augmented separation, disbelief and distrust. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Much Ado about nothing? A multilevel analysis of the relationship between voluntary associations' characteristics and their members' generalized trust

The last 20 years of research on the micro-level relationship between involvement in voluntary associations and generalized trust has been characterized by a growing theory–data gap. This gap is especially problematic in terms of including diversity across voluntary associations in empirical analyses. This article aims to bridge this gap by using a hierarchically clustered data set (active members nested in voluntary associations) and multilevel analyses to test several hypotheses drawn from prior studies about the relationship between voluntary associations' characteristics and members' level of generalized trust. Overall, the results indicate that in explaining the variability in individual generalized trust levels, differences among the associations in which individuals are involved could contribute marginally at best. Almost all variance (97.6%) in individual level of generalized trust lies between the individuals and not between the associations. Furthermore, the analyses show no correlations for most tested associational characteristics. As for membership diversity, the most pronounced result runs opposite to expectation—thus providing some support for a membership similarity hypothesis rather than for a diversity hypothesis. The article raises the question whether the search for associational differences that might explain the lack of a general relationship between membership in voluntary associations and individual level of generalized trust is in fact a dead end.     

Trust in a Time of Increasing Diversity: On the Relationship between Ethnic Heterogeneity and Social Trust in Denmark from 1979 until Today

This article examines the impact of ethnic diversity in Danish municipalities on citizens' social trust over the last three decades. During this period, Danish society has grown increasingly ethnically diverse, and this begs the question whether this has influenced trust in others negatively. Existing evidence from the Anglo‐Saxon countries would suggest that this is the case, whereas evidence from the European continent mainly suggests that no link exists between ethnic diversity and social trust. The empirical analysis uses individual‐level data on social trust from several surveys in Denmark in the period from 1979 to 2009 coupled with diversity at the municipality level. Individual‐level measures of trust over time enable estimation of the impact of changes in ethnic diversity within municipalities on social trust and, it is argued, thereby a more precise estimate of the effect of ethnic diversity on trust. The results suggest that social trust is negatively affected by ethnic diversity. The article concludes by discussing this result and suggest avenues for further research.     

State Unemployment Insurance Trust Solvency and Benefit Generosity

This paper employs panel estimators with data on the 50 American states for the years 1963 to 2006 to test the relationship between Unemployment Insurance (UI) trust fund solvency and UI benefit generosity. We find that both average and maximum weekly UI benefit amounts, as ratios to the average weekly wage, are higher in states and in years with more highly solvent trust funds. This result holds after controlling for state‐level unemployment rate, gross domestic product, population growth, legislative political ideology, partisan control of the executive and legislative branches, and gubernatorial election year across multiple specifications, including fixed‐effects and dynamic panel estimators. We propose a theory of moderate coupling as the causal mechanism, whereby UI program benefits and financing are directly related but are not as tightly linked as in other social insurance programs, such as Medicaid. The findings have important policy implications for the funding of states’ UI systems. As a consequence of moderate coupling, the countercyclicality of the UI program is dampened.