PERSONAL CAPITAL AND SOCIAL CONTROL: THE DETERRENCE IMPLICATIONS OF A THEORY OF INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES IN CRIMINAL OFFENDING*

A large and growing literature links stable individual differences established early in life to deviant behavior through the life course. This literature challenges basic premises of modern sociological and economic theories of deviance that emphasize explanatory factors that are more proximate in time and external to the individual. In this paper we present and test a theory designed to link rational choice and social control theories with two leading examples of theories that emphasize stable individual differences (Wilson and Herrnstein, 1985; Gottfredson and Hirschi, 1990). Based on appeals to the economic theory of investment, we argue that individuals who are more present oriented and self-centered invest less in social bonds and therefore are less deterred from committing crime by the possibility of damage to such bonds. Thus, our theory, which builds from key constructs of the Gottfredson-Hir-schi and Wilson-Herrnstein theories, departs from those theories with the contention that social control does matter.     

A LATENT TRAIT APPROACH TO UNIFYING CRIMINAL CAREERS *

We propose a latent trait model that simultaneously accounts for both participation in crime and the frequency of crimes, phenomena that the criminal career model attributes to different causal processes. The criminal career model is predicated on a categorical distinction between active offenders and nonoffenders, but the latent trait model assumes a continuous distribution of propensity to offend. Our specific statistical model relates a relatively stable and general latent propensity to engage in crime to the frequency of criminal behavior. The latent trait model successfully fit both the proportion of offenders (participation) and frequency of offending for several samples and several measures of offending. The model fit both samples of whites and nonwhites and both males and females. This shows that separate causal processes are not necessary to account for group differences in frequency and in participation, which disproves the major evidence in favor of the criminal career model. Finally, the latent trait model yielded evidence that disparate sex differences in rates of participation for different categories of offenses are consistent with a single difference on a latent trait. This demonstrates the latent trait model's potential for parsimoniously unifying knowledge about criminal careers.     

PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF YOUTHFUL CRIMINAL CAREERS

This paper focuses on the characterization of the criminal careers of youthful offenders. It was found that these criminal careers could be modeled with parameters rejecting constant individual rates of offending and constant probability of career termination; population heterogeneity could be adequately represented by two distinct groups—designated here as "frequents" and occasionals." These parameters were estimated for the multiple offenders in a London cohort studied from their first convictions until age 25. In that cohort, the frequents were estimated to have an annual conviction rate of 1.14 convictions per year (constant with age) and a probability of career termination of .10 following each conviction; the occasionals had an annual conviction rate of .41 and termination probability of .33 following each conviction; the frequents were estimated to comprise 43% of the population, and the occasionals the others 57%. While this parsimonious model structure was adequate for the London cohort, it must still be tested with other offender populations.     

CITIZEN GUN OWNERSHIP AND CRIMINAL DETERRENCE: THEORY,RESEARCH, AND POLICY*

Research on the general and specific deterrents emanating from citizenowned firearms is examined under assumptions about deterrence. Only slight and indirect empirical evidence for deterrence exists in the area of citizen gun ownership. The crime-reducing effects associated with public policies that support civilian gun ownership are balanced in light of other, negative public health factors associated with citizen-owned guns.     

RATE OF OFFENDING IN JUVENILE CAREERS: FINDINGS OF CONSTANCY AND CHANGE IN LAMBDA *

This study examines changes in the rate of offending in a sample of 8,834 males whose official juvenile law-violating careers included 26,650 offense episodes between ages 8 and 17 The rate of offending of active offenders (i.e., lambda) varied substantially as a function of age, increasing monotonically with age. Lambda, however, was not related to the age at first offense. In fact, the average lambda was amazingly constant at each individual age level regardless of the age at which offending began or desisted. Results are discussed in the light of age-crime curves known from other data sets and from the perspective of developmental changes in the rate of offending as youths grow older.     

PARTICIPATION AND FREQUENCY DURING CRIMINAL CAREERS ACROSS THE LIFE SPAN*

Recent advances and debates surrounding general and developmental as well as static and dynamic theories of crime can be traced to the 1986 National Academy of Science's Report on criminal careers and the discussion it generated. A key point of contention has been regarding the interpretation of the age–crime curve. According to Gottfredson and Hirschi (1986), the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects decreasing individual offending frequency (λ) after the peak. Blumstein et al. (1986) claimed that the decline in the aggregate age–crime curve also could be attributable to the termination of criminal careers, and the average value of l could stay constant (or increase with age) for those offenders who remain active after that peak. Using data from the Criminal Career and Life Course Study—including information on criminal convictions across 60 years of almost 5,000 persons convicted in the Netherlands—and applying a two-part growth model that explicitly distinguishes between participation and frequency, the study outlined in this article assessed the participation–frequency debate. Results suggest that the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects both decreasing individual offending participation and frequency after the peak, that the probabilities of participation and frequency are significantly related at the individual level, and that sex and marriage influence both participation and frequency.     

ON THE USE OF PANEL RESEARCH DESIGNS AND RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS TO INVESTIGATE STATIC AND DYNAMIC THEORIES OF CRIMINAL OFFENDING

There is a long-standing debate in criminology about the relative impact of static versus dynamic factors on criminal behavior. Researchers interested in estimating the impact of dynamic factors like prior offending or association with delinquent peers on criminal offending must control for static factors like intelligence, family background, or self-control, which could plausibly be correlated with criminal offending and the dynamic factor itself. Unfortunately, as a practical matter, it is not possible to observe all of these static factors. Statisticians and econometricians have shown that it is possible to identify the collective effect of static factors even though they cannot be observed. To achieve this objective, however, it is necessary to account for stable, unobserved individual characteristics through the use of "fixed-effect" or "random-effect" estimation. Criminologists often use random-effect estimators in these situations. We describe some of the assumptions that are necessary to develop valid inferences when time-varying covariates are used. Then, we use simulation evidence and an empirical application to show that bias can result when they are violated.     

AGE,CRIMINAL CAREERS,AND POPULATION HETEROGENEITY: SPECIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF A NONPARAMETRIC,MIXED POISSON MODEL*

This article addresses three issues that are central to the criminal career debate. First, is the life course of individual offending patterns marked by distinctive periods of quiescence? Second, at the level of the individual, do offending rates vary systematically with age? In particular, is the age-crime curve single peaked or flat? Third, are chronic offenders different from less active offenders? Do offenders themselves differ in systematic ways? Using a new approach to the analysis of individual criminal careers—based on nested, mixed Poisson models in which the mixing distribution is estimated nonparametrically—we analyze a panel data set that tracks a sample of males for more than 20 years. Our results provide empirical evidence in support of some features of criminal propensity theory and some in support of conventional criminal careers theory. In support of latent-trait criminal propensity theory, the individual-level average offense rate (per unit of time) varies as a function of observable individual-level characteristics and unobservable heterogeneity among individuals, and the age trajectory of the offense rate is generally single peaked rather than flat. On the other hand, in support of conventional criminal careers theory, models that incorporate a parameter that permits periods of active as well as inactive offending across age have greater explanatory power than those that do not. In addition, the nonparametric, discrete approximation to the population distribution of unobservable heterogeneity in the individual-level mean offense rate facilitates identification of four classes of offenders—nonoffenders as well as individual-level characteristics that are unique to each group. Problems of theoretical explanation and empirical generalizability of these results are described.     

CRIMINAL PROPENSITY,DEVIANT SEXUAL INTERESTS AND CRIMINAL ACTIVITY OF SEXUAL AGGRESSORS AGAINST WOMEN: A COMPARISON OF EXPLANATORY MODELS*

Three hypotheses have been used to describe the male propensity for sexual aggression towards women: a general propensity to offend, a specific propensity to sexually offend and a combination of both. In this paper, using structural equation modeling, we compared the relative utility of these three hypotheses in explaining criminal activity in adulthood of sexual aggressors of women. In total, 209 adult males who were convicted of at least one sexual offence were included in the study. Results indicate that a propensity model emphasizing the role of an early and persistent general propensity to act in an antisocial manner during childhood and adolescence is most adequate to explain sexual aggressors' criminal activity. After controlling for the role of this propensity, a specific propensity characterized by high sexualization and deviant sexual interests explained only a modest proportion of variance of the sexual criminal activity.     

THE ONSET AND PERSISTENCE OF OFFENDING*

This paper assesses the need for and focus of developmental theories of crime by analyzing three questions: (1) whether age of onset of criminal behavior has a causal impact on subsequent behavior, (2) whether the determinants of onset vary, at least in part, with age, and (3) whether the determinants of onset and continuation of offending differ in some respects. The inverse association between age of onset and persistence of offending is found to be entirely attributable to time-stable individual differences and, thus, is not attributable to a causal linkage. However, evidence is found of the covariates of onset changing with age and differences in the covariates of onset and of the continuation of offending.     

ORGANIZATIONAL OFFENDING AND NEOCLASSICAL CRIMINOLOGY: CHALLENGING THE REACH OF A GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME*

This article examines and critiques Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime, with particular respect to its applicability to organizational offending. We question their views that the theory is adequately general and that typologies of crime are therefore unnecessary for criminological theory. Gottfredson and Hirschi have employed the case of white-collar crime to support their arguments, but they have con strained the test of their theory by focusing on the white-collar offenses that most resemble conventional crime. When organizational offending is included in white-collar crime, empirical and theoretical limitations of their project emerge. These limitations include the matters of defining and counting the phenomena of interest, the nature of the interest that commonly underlies them, and the role of opportunity in them. A satisfactory theory of organizational offending requires an adequate account of all these matters and will look substantially different from Gottfredson and Hirschi's theory of crime.     

NONSOCIAL REINFORCEMENT AND HABITUAL CRIMINAL CONDUCT: AN EXTENSION OF LEARNING THEORY *

Drawing on a diverse literature, we explain how criminal behavior is maintained through a process of nonsocial reinforcement, and show that some persons find criminal behavior particularly rewarding. We test our assumptions using surveys of 295 incarcerated adult felons and 150 male college students and intensive focus groups with 40 habitual offenders currently serving time. Results suggest that the experience of committing nonviolent and, particularly, violent crime is intrinsically rewarding and tends to reinforce such behavior among habitual criminals. The endogenous rewards identified center on (1) the neurophysiological high such acts produce and (2) the symbolic meaning of the behavior as it relates to self-concept and identity formation. Findings from the surveys and the focus groups suggest that habitual criminality is sustained partly through the positive sensations (physiological and psychological) those crimes activate within the offender and that those sensations are instrumental in the maintenance and reinforcement of criminal careers. Based on what is known in the literature and what has been learned from our research, it seems that an effective way of integrating this knowledge lies in the direction of a nonsocial reinforcement arm of learning theory.     

STRAINED LIVES AND CRIME: EXAMINING INTRA‐INDIVIDUAL VARIATION IN STRAIN AND OFFENDING IN A SAMPLE OF INCARCERATED WOMEN*

When applied to the study of changes in an individual's offending, general strain theory posits that individuals will be more likely to offend during periods of high strain. Using 36 months of retrospective data collected from female inmates, we explore the relationship between intra‐individual changes in strain and changes in offending and drug use. We also examine how different dimensions of strain‐recent composite strain, duration, clustering and accumulation, contribute to the explanation of offending. We find that changes in strain are associated with changes in violence, drug use, and property crime and that these relationships remain after the addition of control variables. Moreover, the strain‐crime relationship holds when the correct causal order is specified. When modeling offending, taking various dimensions of strain into account does increase the amount of variation explained for some outcomes, but other dimensions are highly correlated. We conclude that conceptualizing the interaction between strain and crime as a dynamic process is constructive and that general strain theory will be improved if criminologists move beyond static conceptions of strain.     

THE PREVENTIVE EFFECTS OF ARREST ON INTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE: RESEARCH,POLICY AND THEORY*

Research Summary: This research addresses the limitations of prior analyses and reviews of five experiments testing for the specific deterrent effect of arrest on intimate partner violence by applying to individual level data consistent eligibility criteria, common independent and outcome measures, and appropriate statistical tests. Based on 4,032 cases involving adult males who assaulted their female intimate partners, multivariate regression analyses show consistent but modest reductions in subsequent offenses targeting the original victim that is attributable to arresting the suspect. Although the reductions attributable to arrest are similar across all five studies, other factors, such as the suspect's prior arrest record, are stronger predictors of subsequent offenses. The effect of arrest is also modest compared with the general decline in offenses toward the same victim during the follow‐up period. Policy Implications: These results lend limited support for policies favoring arrest over informal police responses to intimate partner violence. However, the analyses also show that despite police intervention, a minority of suspects repeatedly victimize their partners and that factors other than formal sanctions play larger roles in explaining the cessation or continuation of aggressive behavior between intimates. These findings suggest that new policies replacing or enhancing arrest that target potential repeat offenders might produce larger reductions in intimate partner violence.     

GENDER,STREETLIFE AND CRIMINAL RETALIATION*

Recent work in criminology has highlighted the central role of retaliation in shaping criminal violence in America's inner cities. Most of this work, however, has been based on male offenders. It has also failed to consider whether and how gender structures payback in real‐life settings and circumstances. In this paper, we analyze in‐depth, semi‐structured interviews with forty men and twelve women who recently engaged in one or more episodes of retaliatory violence to examine the ways in which gender shapes vengeance. We hope to provide an insider's view of how gender frames the context and dynamics of retaliatory events for both men and women.     

CHANGES IN CRIMINAL OFFENDING AROUND THE TIME OF JOB ENTRY: A STUDY OF EMPLOYMENT AND DESISTANCE

Does employment promote desistance from crime? Most perspectives assume that individuals who become employed are less likely to offend than those who do not. The critical issue has to do with the timing of employment transitions in the criminal trajectory. The turning point hypothesis expects reductions in offending after job entries, whereas the maturation perspective assumes desistance to have occurred ahead of successful transitions to legitimate work. Focusing on a sample of recidivist males who became employed during 2001–2006 (N = 783), smoothing spline regression techniques were used to model changes in criminal offending around the point of entry to stable employment. Consistent with the maturation perspective, the results showed that most offenders had desisted prior to the employment transition and that becoming employed was not associated with further reductions in criminal behavior. Consistent with the turning point hypothesis, we identified a subset of offenders who became employed during an active phase of the criminal career and experienced substantial reductions in criminal offending thereafter. However, this trajectory describes less than 2 percent of the sample. The patterns observed in this research suggest that transition to employment is best viewed as a consequence rather than as a cause of criminal desistance.     

A NEW LOOK AT THE EMPLOYMENT AND RECIDIVISM RELATIONSHIP THROUGH THE LENS OF A CRIMINAL BACKGROUND CHECK*

Criminal background checks are increasingly being incorporated into hiring decisions by employers. Although originally uncompromising—almost anyone with a criminal record could be denied employment—court rulings and policy changes have forced criminal background checks to become more nuanced. One motivation for allowing more individuals with criminal records to work is to decrease recidivism and encourage desistance. In this article, we estimate the causal impact of receiving a clearance to work on subsequent arrests for individuals with criminal records who have been provisionally hired to work in certain nonlicensed health‐care jobs in New York State (N = 6,648). We employ an instrumental variable approach based on a substantive understanding of the state‐mandated criminal background check process. We examine age‐graded effects within this group of motivated individuals and differential effects by sex in the rapidly growing health‐care industry, which is typically dominated by women. Our estimated local average treatment effect indicates a 2.2‐percentage‐point decrease in the likelihood of a subsequent arrest in 1 year and a 4.2‐percentage‐point decrease over 3 years. We find meaningful variations by sex; men are 8.4 percentage points less likely to be arrested over the 3‐year period when cleared compared with a 2.4‐percentage‐point (and nonsignificant) effect for women. Older women in particular are driving the nonsignificant results for women.