城市工业火灾风险评估

火灾是对人类危害最为严重的灾害之一,特别是城市工业火灾造成巨大的经济损失与人员伤亡。本文介绍了火灾风险评估的几种模型,评述了这些模型的优缺点。在分析城市工业火灾发生原因的基础上,建立了城市工业火灾评估指标体系,并运用模糊综合判断评估方法对城市工业的火灾安全进行了风险评估,通过评估可得出该工业所属的安全等级,使管理者及时采取措施,以减少工业火灾危险性。     

A National Survey of Juvenile Risk Assessment

Juvenile courts in the United State are using risk assessment to measure relative levels of risk posed by delinquent offenders. Risk assessment aids in decisions about restrictiveness, supervision and the type and intensity of treatment needed. The current study surveyed all states in an effort to define the current state-of-the-art in juvenile risk assessment. The results indicate most states have some semblance of risk assessment of juvenile offenders, but a minority of states have formal risk assessment instruments. The predominate risk factors measured in the 50 states include measures of offense severity, past history of offenses, age of the offender, psychological measures, use of community resources, substance abuse, prior institutionalization, family problems, peer group association and absconding. This qualitative research provides an overview of the scope and sophistication of juvenile risk assessment and may provide models for states wishing to implement risk assessment.     

Adverse Childhood Experiences Affect Health Risk Behaviors and Chronic Health of Iowans

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), include childhood abuse and household dysfunction, and are associated with a variety of behavioral risk factors and chronic illnesses in adulthood. This study replicates the original ACEs study (Felitti et al. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 14(4), 245–258. doi: 10.1016/s0749-3797(98)00017-8, 1998) with a representative sample of adults in Iowa. Data come from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey of 2012 when ACE assessments were first introduced in Iowa by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2012). The majority of adults in Iowa (58%) have experienced at least one ACE, and depending on the type of ACE, co-occurrence of ACEs ranged from 76% to 97%. Health risk behaviors in adulthood, such as drinking, smoking, and obesity were significantly related to the number of ACEs experienced. ACEs were also associated with depression. Chronic health outcomes including heart disease, stroke, and COPD were also significantly predicted by the number of ACEs. This replication study demonstrates that the need for intervention and prevention programs in Iowa are similar to the needs found in other states in the U.S. for addressing the consequences of ACEs.     

台风灾害综合风险评价研究

台风灾害是我国沿海及部分内陆地区经常发生的一种气象灾害,是世界上最严重的自然灾害之一.台风登陆后会带来暴雨、大风、风暴潮等灾害性天气,造成严重的人员伤亡和财产损失.因此,有必要对台风灾害的风险进行综合评价并进行等级划分,确定风险较高的地区,为决策部门的资源配置、防灾减灾规划提供参考和依据.本文综合考虑台风灾害的危险性、脆弱性、暴露性和当地的防灾减灾能力,构建了台风灾害的综合风险评价指标体系,根据历史统计资料等数据对各评价指标进行量化,利用GIS的空间分析功能将各评价指标按其权重进行叠加分析,得出台风灾害的风险等级区划.最后以浙江省为例,对台风灾害的综合风险评价进行案例应用研究.     

当代英美刑法中的人格地位与人格评估

随着"报应模式"在当今英美刑法领域的衰微,犯罪人在英美刑法中的地位不断提高,刑法适用越来越重视人格.人格评估的方式在英美之间不尽相同,美国通过犯罪史进行评估,英国使用罪犯评估系统.     

定量风险分析在恐怖袭击风险评估中的应用

本文回顾了定量风险分析的发展过程,提出了对恐怖主义风险进行评估、定量的方法。在定量过程中,根据已经获得的情报资料和以往类似事件的总结,结合专家意见,采用定量分析方法对数据进行处理,得出最可能的袭击目标,威胁的属性,确定出袭击的幕景。采用事故树分析其威胁模型,采用事件树分析系统脆弱性,得出袭击的后果及目标中存在的最大脆弱性。为在恐怖威胁下做出有效决策提供了理论依据。并以体育馆为例,用理论进行了实例分析。     

一种半定量建筑火灾风险评估体系

为满足大量建筑火灾风险评估工作的需要,本文依据火灾风险评估的定义建立一种半定量建筑火灾风险评估体系.通过风险矩阵,由每个火灾场景的火灾发生概率和火灾危害程度,确定每个火灾场景的火灾风险,各火灾场景风险之和为建筑的火灾风险.在确定火灾发生概率时,借助事故控制因子考虑评估对象的特征,从人员脆弱性因子、建筑脆弱性因子和火灾发展阶段危害控制能力因子考虑了影响火灾危害程度的主要因素.在确定因素权重和因子赋值的过程中使用了模糊综合评价法、层次分析法和多属性评价法.最后运用该评估体系对某医院建筑进行了评估.     

Risk Assessment for Juvenile Justice: A Meta-Analysis

Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.